13 5 Relevant Information, Personality Traits Andanchoring Effect
13 5 Relevant Information, Personality Traits Andanchoring Effect
1, 2014
Andrea Caputo
Department of Business Administration,
Princess Sumaya University for Technology,
P.O. Box 1438 Al-Jubaiha, 11941 Amman, Jordan
E-mail: [email protected]
1 Introduction
Albar and Jetter, 2013; Jones, 2007; Podvezko, 2007; Sikder, 2008; Sjoberg, 2007;
Ustinovichius, 2007). Among those studies, Herbert Simon’s work on bounded
rationality represents the main background theory. In this stream, scholars have addressed
the issue of cognitive biases affecting decision-making processes, in a continuous effort
to find an explanation to why human misperceptions can occur. Following up Simon’s
studies on human cognition, Stanovich and West (2000) proposed dividing cognitive
functioning in two systems. System 1 is intuitive, automatic, effortless, implicit and
emotional, while System 2 is reflective, slower, conscious, effortful and rational
(Kahneman, 2003). On the one hand, the first System is considered to be more rapid and
instinctive. An example of this is when we duck because a ball is thrown at us
unexpectedly. On the other hand, the reflective system is more deliberate and
self-conscious. For example, we use it when planning our next trip. One way to think
about all this is that the automatic system is our gut feeling and the reflective system is
our conscious thought (Thaler and Sunstein, 2008). Gut feelings can be quite accurate, or
‘good enough’ (Albar and Jetter, 2013), even in managerial contexts. Moreover, people
often make mistakes because they rely too much on the automatic system (Chugh, 2004).
Since System 1 is faster than System 2 in making decisions, people have developed
thousands of simplifying strategies or rules of thumb, so-called heuristics.
Heuristics are commonly defined as simplifying strategies to cope with complex
issues and problems. In their study, Newell and Simon (1972) defined heuristics as those
cognitive shortcuts that the human brain tends to use when its decision-making process is
limited, in terms of both time and availability of data. People frequently use rules of
thumb to make judgments in real life, and although they can be very quick and helpful,
their use was found to lead to systematic biases (Tversky and Kahneman, 1974). In fact,
heuristics produce accurate or partially accurate judgments and it may be inevitable that
people will adopt some of them (Bazerman and Moore, 2009). Heuristics can be applied
by almost everyone, as researches have demonstrated that their use is not specific to
particular individuals (Bazerman and Moore, 2009; Plous, 1993). For example, managers
have been recently found to rely on heuristics in decisions concerning project screening
(Albar and Jetter, 2013).
The reliability on heuristics can produce a biased decision-making process and a
biased result, which is more likely to occur in System 1-thinking than in System 2
(Bazerman and Moore, 2009). A bias can be defined as the human tendency to make
systematic errors in certain circumstances based on cognitive factors rather than evidence
(Tversky and Kahneman, 1974). Hammond et al. (2001) proposed one of the most
interesting interpretations of cognitive biases in decision making; they called them
‘hidden traps’, for considering all those situations in which the human brain is
abnormally deviating from deciding rationally. A biased managerial decision-making
process can affect a wide range of decisions and environments, such as groups
(i.e., Sikder, 2008). For example, it could distort beliefs (i.e., Sjoberg, 2007), affect
estimates (i.e., Podvezko, 2007) or valuations (i.e., Meszek, 2007), and increase the
reliability on subjective approach (i.e., Ustinovichius, 2007).
The aim of this study is to investigate how the provision of correct information and
individual difference factors influence the susceptibility to the anchoring effect. The
anchoring effect is the phenomenon under which individuals, when making estimates,
rely more on subjective irrelevant data and information. This paper, after having
introduced the topic of decision-making biases, will provide a theoretical background on
the anchoring effect to introduce the research and provide context. Consequently, the
64 A. Caputo
methods and the results of the study will be discussed in terms of future research
direction, theoretical and managerial implications.
2 Theoretical framework
This section of the paper presents a brief introduction on the research that has been done
with reference to the anchoring effect, which relates to the decision-making process when
individuals make estimates for values (i.e., Chapman and Bornstein, 1996; Northcraft
and Neale, 1987; Plous, 1989, 1993). The decision-making literature predicts that an
individual will make their estimate based upon an initial value – derived from past
events, random assignment, or whatever information is available – and typically make
insufficient adjustments from that anchor when establishing a final value (Bazerman and
Moore, 2009).
Anchoring on unreliable information appears to pose a significant risk to the quality
of individual judgment, even when objectively appropriate anchors are available (Whyte
and Sebenius, 1997). The initial value(s) may be drawn from memory or experience, or
may be supplied by others. When based on irrelevant or no longer pertinent information,
faulty decisions are likely to result. When making forecasts, people often use the past as
the starting point. While the past may be relevant, the environment may offer other
pertinent clues to the future. Illuminating potential anchoring biases may enable decision
makers to examine the information they are considering (Plous, 1989; Tversky and
Kahneman, 1974).
The anchoring effect appears to be prevalent throughout human decision processes
and has been shown to reliably influence judgments in a variety of domains, other than
probability estimates (Plous, 1989; Tversky and Kahneman, 1974), including negotiation
(i.e., Caputo, 2013; Galinsky and Mussweiler, 2001; Neale and Bazerman, 1991; Ritov,
1996), legal judgments (i.e., Chapman and Bornstein, 1996), and general knowledge
(i.e., Epley and Gilovich, 2001; McElroy and Dowd, 2007; Mussweiler and Englich,
2005; Mussweiler and Strack, 1999, 2001; Strack and Mussweiler, 1997). Furthermore,
anchoring effects appear viable across most situations for both novices and experts
(i.e., Northcraft and Neale, 1987).
There seems to be no difference between the effects produced by relevant anchors
and irrelevant anchors. Furnham and Boo (2011), in a recent literature review, stated that
irrelevant anchors produce similar effects in judgmental decisions in comparison to those
of informational relevance anchors. For example, Tversky and Kahneman (1974)
randomly generated the anchor values by spinning a wheel of fortune; while, participants
in Englich et al.’s (2006) study randomly acquired the anchors by throwing a set of dice,
and Critcher and Gilovich (2008) found that the number on an athlete’s jersey could
anchor estimations of his performance.
Different factors have been analysed in order to investigate their relation with the
anchoring effect, focusing chiefly on the role of mood, knowledge and experience.
Significant results of affective factors on anchoring effects have been found
(Bodenhausen et al., 2000; Englich and Soder, 2009). In addition, previous researches
have provided empirical evidence demonstrating that decisions by expert participants in
the judgmental domains also show an anchoring effect (Enough and Mussweiler, 2001;
Englich et al., 2005, 2006; Mussweiler et al., 2000; Northcraft and Neale, 1987). These
Relevant information, personality traits and anchoring effect 65
results imply that expertise does not significantly reduce the assimilative bias in decisions
that affect inexperienced laypeople (Furnham and Boo, 2011). Anchoring effect thus
appears to be a very robust psychological phenomenon, which does not influence all
individuals equally. Identifying those factors that influence how and in what ways a
person is susceptible to this heuristic should further the understanding of the process
(Furnham and Boo, 2011).
One avenue of approach is to investigate the role of individual difference factors
(Furnham and Boo, 2011), which are the different responses generated by an individual
toward specific events or circumstances in a way that is different from other people on a
regular basis (Brandstätter, 1993). Previous studies pointed out the important role of the
personality of the decision maker in risky choice situations (Tversky and Kahneman,
1981), and the influence of intellectual traits on decision-making and consequential
choice preference (Stanovich and West, 1998, 2000). In addition, individual differences
have been also found in terms of numerical reliance (Bartels, 2006; Peters et al., 2006),
optimism (Buehler and Griffin, 2003), preference for actions or inactions (Baron and
Ritov, 2004), and ambiguity (Lauriola and Levin, 2001; Nowlis et al., 2002).
The aim of the current study is to investigate how individual difference factors may
influence the reliability on an irrelevant anchor, and if individuals rely on irrelevant
anchor even when provided with correct information. In fact, Whyte and Sebenius (1997)
stated that anchoring on unreliable information appears to pose a significant risk to the
quality of individual judgment, even when objectively appropriate anchors are available,
assuming a recency effect. Therefore, a recency effect should be found in the study.
Hypothesis 1 The availability of correct information does not influence the
susceptibility to the anchoring effect.
Furnham and Boo’s (2011) literature review on the anchoring effect claimed how there is
limited research on the relationship between personality and the anchoring effect. Thus,
due to the lack of sufficient empirical evidence to conclude on the effect of personality on
anchoring, a gap in the literature is given and further studies are needed to investigate the
relationship between these variables (Furnham and Boo, 2011).
Personality is one of the individual difference variables that affects individuals’
performance and more specifically the cognitive processing in judgmental decisions
(Furnham and Boo, 2011). Most of the research in the field related to personality has
focused on the most widely tested and well-regarded Big-Five personality traits (Eroglu
and Croxton, 2010; McElroy and Dowd, 2007). The personality traits that make up the
so-called ‘Big Five’ are not traits themselves but rather dispositional categories under
which a variety of specific traits may be subsumed (Barry and Friedman, 1998).
According to Barrick and Mount (1991), these five factors include extraversion,
agreeableness, conscientiousness, emotional stability/neuroticism, and openness to
experience.
Extraversion is a personality trait associated with being sociable, assertive, talkative
and active. Empirical studies have been undertaken on mood and affect, associating
positive mood states and the positive affect with the trait of extraversion. Furthermore,
stemming from Bower’s (1981, 1991) ‘network theory of affect’, which suggests that
positive (negative) moods produce more positive (negative) judgments, studies on the
relationship between mood states and the anchoring effect have demonstrated that
negative mood states lead participants to engage in more effortful information processing,
66 A. Caputo
Emotional stability is associated with being calm, even-tempered, and less likely to feel
tense or rattled, while Neuroticism is associated with being depressed, tense, nervous,
angry, unstable, discontented, worried, and uneasy. No empirical evidences have been
found in the literature on the relationship between this trait and the anchoring effect
(Furnham and Boo, 2011). The trait of neuroticism has been related with mood states and
affect, and then with the trait of extraversion (Eroglu and Croxton, 2010). Stemming from
Bower’s (1981, 1991) ‘network theory of affect’ and Rusting’s (1999) research, a similar
effect of extraversion and neuroticism on judgments has been identified. Thus, it is
hypothesised that:
The traits of agreeableness, which is associated with being courteous, flexible, trusting,
cooperative and tolerant; conscientiousness, which is associated with being careful,
responsible and organised; and, openness to experience, which is associated with being
imaginative, curious, original and open-minded, can be considered together. In fact,
individuals with high conscientiousness and agreeableness (Bodenhausen et al., 2000;
Eroglu and Croxton, 2010), as well as with high openness to experience (McElroy
and Dowd, 2007) were found to be more susceptible to the anchoring effect. Furnham
and Boo (2011) explained these results with the selective accessibility mechanism
(Mussweiler and Strack, 1999) and the attitudinal approach (Wegener et al., 2001) to the
anchoring effect.
Based on those theories, the following attitudes related to personality traits lead to the
activation of confirmatory search and selective accessibility mechanisms of anchoring.
Individuals expressing high levels of conscientiousness tend to engage in more thorough
thought processes before making their judgments, while those with high agreeableness
tend to take the provided anchors more seriously. Finally, high openness to experience
influences individuals who are more sensitive to anchor cues (Furnham and Boo, 2011).
Thus, it is hypothesised that:
To test these hypotheses, individual levels of personality traits have been measured.
Participants have then been provided with an anchoring task involving the Taj Mahal.
Relevant information, personality traits and anchoring effect 67
3 Method
which served as the anchor. Finally, participants were asked to estimate the exact year of
completion of the Taj Mahal. Half of the participants were presented with a brief story
(from the Wikipedia.org page) about the Taj Mahal, in which the exact year of
completion was mentioned (which was 1653). All participants were then informed about
the nature of our study, thanked, and released from the study.
x = DIG − EST
z = EST − CORR
DIG is the year composed by the three digits of the phone number of each respondent;
EST is the estimate provided for the completion of Taj Mahal; and, CORR is the correct
information provided (the year 1653). The variable x and z have been standardised to be
in the range between 0 and 1. Therefore, the variable AI is explicated as follows.
⎧0, z < median{z}
AI = ⎨
⎩1 − x, z ≥ median{z}
For the group who was not presented with the brief story of the Taj Mahal, the variable z
is not applicable. Thus, the anchoring index is calculated as follows.
AI = 1 − x
The AI has a range of continuous values from 0 to 1. When closer to 0 there is no
anchoring effect; when closer to 1 there is a strong anchoring effect.
4 Results
Hypothesis 1 assumes that the availability of correct information does not influence the
susceptibility to the anchoring effect. Thus, the recency effect should exist. In order to
investigate this relationship, a regression analysis with the anchoring index serving as
independent variable has been performed by selecting the cases where the correct
information was provided or not. Participants’ estimates of the year of completion of the
Taj Mahal served as the dependent variable. In the cases without correct information, the
analysis showed significant results (F (1, 52) = 17.30, p < .000) between the anchoring
index and the estimation. Thus, the anchoring effect existed and affected the estimation
judgment. However, in the cases where the correct information has been provided, the
Relevant information, personality traits and anchoring effect 69
analysis did not reveal the same significant results (F (1, 63) = .37, p < .54). Thus,
hypothesis 1 is rejected; the hypothesised recency effect cannot be supported.
In order to investigate whether the personality factors influenced participants’
susceptibility to the anchor, a regression analysis with a variable expressing whether or
not they received correct information and participants’ personality trait scores serving as
our independent variables have been performed. Participants’ anchoring index served as
the dependent variable. This analysis showed significant results (F (1, 117) = 6.685,
p < .000) on the relationship between the independent variables and the dependent
variable. R-square is a statistic that will give some information about the goodness of fit
of a model. In regression, the R-square coefficient of determination is a statistical
measure of how well the regression line approximates the real data points. An R-square
of 1.0 indicates that the regression line perfectly fits the data. As can be noted from table
1, only the variable expressing the correct information received had a significant relation
in the model.
Table 1 Output of the regression analysis
negatively correlated with agreeableness (r (1, 117) = –.207, p = .025) and openness to
experience (r (1, 117) = –.187, p = .044). This confirms the partially significant results of
the coefficients in the regression analysis associated with the above mentioned
personality traits. Thus, hypothesis 2c and 2e are rejected, while the analysis did not
show any significant result about hypothesis 2a, 2b and 2d.
5 Discussion
The present work poses some important elements of originality in comparison with
previous works concerning the anchoring effect. First, the sampling method and subject
population in this paper are new in the field. The vast majority of studies on the
anchoring effect used undergraduate students, while in the present study a population of
seasoned managers and professionals has been analysed. Moreover, the sampling method
was targeted in order to select individuals with educational background and experience
the closest possible to a population of managers. On this account, the social network
LinkedIn has been used to collect participants in the study. Second, no other studies have
been found to adopt a ‘mobile’ anchor in the estimation task. Without counting the few
studies analysing real data to prove the anchoring effect (i.e., Bokhari and Geltner, 2011),
all the other studies provided participants with low versus high anchors in order to
polarise results (i.e., Bodenhausen et al., 2000; Englich and Soder, 2009; Furnham and
Boo, 2011; McElroy and Dowd, 2007; Nguyen and Schüßler, 2012). Even if this method
is very useful to prove the existence of the anchoring effect, the same cannot be said in
terms of realness. Third, in the present study the correct information has been put in
competition with the anchor number, no other studies have been found analysing this
relationship.
That being said, partial support for the hypothesised relationships has been found.
First, the expected result (hypothesis 1) about a recency effect that favoured the anchor
relative to the correct information has not been confirmed by the analysis, in contrast
with Whyte and Sebenius’ (1997) results. On the contrary, providing individuals with the
correct information limited the individuals’ reliability on the irrelevant anchor. This
finding does not have a strong support; in fact just 33% (N = 21) of the participants
receiving the correct information exactly recalled it when estimating the year. This leaves
space open for future research concerning managers’ attention to the correct information
provided to them.
Second, the limited research on the mitigating relationship between personality
factors and susceptibility to the anchoring effect found how individuals with high
conscientiousness and agreeableness, and low extraversion should be more susceptible to
the anchoring effect (Bodenhausen et al., 2000; Eroglu and Croxton, 2010; McElroy and
Dowd, 2007). Previous findings on conscientiousness and extraversion are not supported
by the current study. In addition, findings of the present work contradict previous
research on agreeableness and openness to experience (Bodenhausen et al., 2000; Eroglu
and Croxton, 2010; McElroy and Dowd, 2007). In fact, in the present study, high
agreeableness has been found to limit the susceptibility to the anchoring effect, and the
same can be said about openness to experience.
Other than the presented results from a statistical analysis, some results from
differences in the mean of anchoring index across different individuals may be worth
noting even if not statistically significant. A gender effect seems to exist; female subjects
Relevant information, personality traits and anchoring effect 71
seem to be ‘less affected’ by anchoring bias than male individuals. The same can be said
for educated people; individuals with higher degrees seem to be ‘less affected’ than
others. An exception has been found with reference to PhDs, which resulted to have
higher mean of anchoring index than people with master degrees. Future research may
find interest in examining such findings with broader studies.
Several limitations are present within the current studies. The first relates to the
selected measure of personality traits, which has been chosen because of its conciseness
and brevity; however, its short length comes at the expense of reliability, a psychometric
limitation that is indigenousness to all short instruments. Furthermore, such a short scale
is able to offer only a broad assessment of the Big Five personality constructs; as noted
by its authors, the TIPI is also unable to provide scores for facet-level constructs, which
are often better predictors of specific criteria (Gosling et al., 2003; McElroy and Dowd,
2007). Future research on this topic may benefit from using multi-item measures of the
Big Five. The second limitation is shared with previous academic research and relates to
the use of small size populations. This has been balanced with the use of a population
more representative for managers than the usual student class. In fact, the average age of
participants was about 43 years old and average working experience was about 19 years.
6 Conclusions
Although personality has been one of the most-studied topics in management and
decision-making research, this stream of research has generated inconsistent support for
the relationship between personality factors and the susceptibility to heuristics, and
therefore biased judgment.
This paper tested whether the five personality factors, namely extraversion,
agreeableness, conscientiousness, emotional stability and openness to experience, as
depicted by McCrae and Costa (1997, 1999) may influence individual sensitivity to
anchor cues and in turn, individual judgments. In a task involving estimates about the
year of completion of the Taj Mahal, the hypothesis that individual differences in
personality would influence the reliability on a previously presented anchor have been
examined. In order to operate with mobile anchors, differently from previous research
that provided fixed anchors to participants, an anchoring index has been originally
developed.
From a managerial viewpoint, the results of the present work suggest how it is
convenient to provide correct information to decision-makers when the risk of
susceptibility to the anchoring effects exists. Moreover, agreeableness and openness to
experience have been found to reduce susceptibility to the anchoring effect, suggesting
that managers with those predominant personality factors should rely less on irrelevant
information when making decisions.
From this study, some interesting implications for future research directions on this
topic also emerge. Some of them are related to the methods of this analysis. The fact
that the current findings have not completely supported previous research and found
non-analysed before relationships with reference to providing participants with correct
information and personality traits opens some interesting venues for future research.
These findings also pose interesting questions on how individual differences in
personality traits may influence judgments for other heuristics and biases as well. This
should be especially true for decision tasks affected by the reliance on external
72 A. Caputo
information. One venue of research may involve the framing effect (Kahneman and
Tversky, 1979). Previous research has chiefly examined relationships between
personality traits and risk preference (Harms et al., 2012; Kourtidis et al., 2011; Zhao
et al., 2010). Future research may want to explore whether this effect is due to reliance on
external information (e.g., the frame) or whether it represents a general tendency among
individuals with different personality traits.
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