Climate Change and Water

Resources
ID 717
Lecture 6_Lab1
Dr. Rashid Mahmood
Department of Irrigation and Drainage
University of Agriculture, Faisalabad

Climate change impact assessment

Climate change Impacts:
“The effects (positive or negative) of climate change on natural and
human systems.”
• Depending on the consideration of adaptation, one can distinguish
between potential impacts and residual impacts
Potential impacts: “All impacts that may occur under a given projected
change in climate, without considering adaptation”.
Residual impacts: “The impacts of climate change that would occur
after adaptation”.
Climate change impact assessment:
“The practice of identifying and evaluating, in monetary and/or non-
monetary terms, the effects of climate change on natural and human
system”
 Impact of climate change on human being and nature

Climate change impact assessment

• Why do we need climate change impact assessments?
1. How important or serious are the impacts of climate change likely to
be? (Threat, Vulnerability, Risks)
2. What can and should be done to prevent these impacts, and when
and how should it be done? (Mitigation and Adaptation)

Information about climate impacts is needed both to help decide

upon the urgency and the desirability of mitigative and adaptive
measures, actions, and policies, and their appropriate combinations.
 Main Driving Forces
1. Population, 2. Economy, 3. Technologies, 4. Land use, 5. Agriculture

Emission scenario Scenario generation GHG and Aerosols

(A2, B2, A1, B1 etc.) models scenarios

Global Historical
observations GCMs

Validation
Baseline GCM present climate
GCM future climate
R e g i o n l i z a t i o n

Direct GCM Interpolation Statistical Dynamic General

outputs methods downscaling downscaling Approaches for
Climate change
Regional Meteorological historical data impact
• Calibration Assessment on
• validation water resources
Hydrological modelling

Impacts of Climate Change

5

Climate change impact assessment

 Lab1: Direct use of GCM outputs for Climate Change Impact
Assessment
Objective: To explore mean monthly future changes in temperature and precipitation GCMs
under RCPs (4.5 or 8.5)
Data needed
Temperature, precipitation
GCM present climate
1. GCM
• (Future (2020-2050) GCM future climate
• current (1971-2000 or 1961-1990 or 1981-2009)
2. Observed (1971-2000 or 1961-1990 or 1981-2009)
Methodology Direct GCM
a) For downloading GCM (UK or Canadian model) data outputs
1. Please visit CMIP5 (http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/data_getting_started.html)
Regional Meteorological
Following are the four main gateways to download data historical data
PCMDI: http://pcmdi9.llnl.gov/
BADC: http://esgf-index1.ceda.ac.uk Hydrological modelling
DKRZ: http://esgf-data.dkrz.de
NCI: http://esg2.nci.org.au

2. Register on one of the above gateways to make an account Impacts of Climate Change
3. Select project CMIP5 or CMIP3
4.Select one GCM (HadCM3) out of 62 GCMs

Climate change impact assessment

5. Select Experiment family (RCPs)
6. Choose Variable (Temperature and Precipitation)
7. Time frequency (daily or monthly)
8. You can use ensembles if available
After completing all these selection, start downloading data
This will download data (temp) for whole world and you have to separate data for your specific region
(Faisalabad) by using some software like (Grade, CDO, Panoply etc.)
• For detailed understanding you can go on Canadian website, however this website do not have RCPs data
(used in AR5)
b) Observed data collection
• Students will collect temperature and precipitation data from UAF-observatory for the period of 1971-2009
C) Validate the GCM data with observed data using
1. Correlation coefficient (R)
2. Coefficient of determination (R square)
3. Root mean square error (RMSE)
4. You can also use graphical comparison to observe variations
 Climate change impact assessment
Coefficient of Determination
Coefficient of Determination • how well variations of observed
data are captured by Simulated
• Should be close to 1

Qobs = observed values of temperature or precipitation

Qsim = simulated GCM data (temperature and precipitation)
Qobs bar and Qsim bar are mean values

Root Mean Square Error n

∑ ( X obs , i − X mo del , i ) 2
i =1
RMSE =
n

where Xobs is observed values and Xmodel is modelled values at time/place i.

Climate change impact assessment

d) After comparison, find out the mean monthly and annual changes in both climate variables (T
and P) with respect to baseline (observed data)
e) Draw graph of annual anomalies (both for current and future period) to observe variability in
both data sets
Results and Discussion
Conclusion

End of First Lab

 Lab 2

Climate change impact assessment using Delta Change

Lab 2: To explore mean monthly future changes in temperature and
precipitation under RCPs (4.5 or 8.5) using Delta Change Method (one
of Interpolation Methods)
Data Required:
Temperature and Precipitation
1) GCM (1961-1990 and 2021-2050)
2) Observed (Astore station)
Methodology:
Climate change impact assessment
Delta Change Approach

Obs. Daily data or monthly GCM outputs IPCC Data

WAPDA and
P&T T&P Distribution
PMD
Center

Current (e.g.1961-1990)
Future (e.g. 2020, 2050, 2080)

CF for T = Future - Current

CF for P = Future / Current

Tlocal_future = Tlocal_observed + (TGCM_future – TGCM_current)

Plocal_future = Plocal_observed × (PGCM_future / PGCM_current)

Local T for future (e.g. 2021-2050)

Local P for future (e.g. 2021-2050)

Chart, Graph, Anomalies with respect to

baseline period (1961-90)

Climate change impact assessment

• Find out regional future temperature and precipitation
• Draw graph of annual anomalies (both for current and future period)
to observe variability in both data sets
Results and Discussion
Conclusion