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Maize September 2023 Pre Harvest 2

The pre-sowing price forecast for maize during Yasangi (rabi) 2023-24 estimates prices to be between Rs. 1960-2270 per quintal at harvest time (January to March 2024). Global maize production is projected to rise to 12208 lakh tonnes, with India's production increasing to 359.1 lakh tonnes for the 2022-23 season. The forecast is based on historical price data and econometric models, but actual prices may vary due to market conditions.

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Srijita Chakraborty
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2 views2 pages

Maize September 2023 Pre Harvest 2

The pre-sowing price forecast for maize during Yasangi (rabi) 2023-24 estimates prices to be between Rs. 1960-2270 per quintal at harvest time (January to March 2024). Global maize production is projected to rise to 12208 lakh tonnes, with India's production increasing to 359.1 lakh tonnes for the 2022-23 season. The forecast is based on historical price data and econometric models, but actual prices may vary due to market conditions.

Uploaded by

Srijita Chakraborty
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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YASANGI (RABI) 2023-24 PRE-SOWING PRICE FORECAST OF MAIZE

Maize Price per Quintal will be around Rs. 1960-2270 at the Time of Harvesting
(January to March 2024)
Maize (Zea mays L.) is one of the most versatile emerging crops having wider
adaptability under varied agro-climatic conditions. Globally, maize is known as queen of cereals
because it has the highest genetic yield potential among the cereals. It is cultivated in about 165
countries having wider diversity of soil, climate, biodiversity and management practices. United
States of America is the largest producer of maize contributing nearly 34% of the total
production in the world. Other important growing countries are China, Brazil, Argentina,
Ukraine, India, Mexico, Indonesia and South Africa.
World’s maize production forecast has increased from 11604 lakh tonnes (2022-23) to
12208 lakh tonnes in new season (2023-24). Accordingly, total supply and consumption would
also increase from 14463 to 14950 lakh tonnes and 11721 to 12073 lakh tonnes respectively in
2023-24. Exports would decrease from 1796 to 1715 lakh tonnes. World’s carryout stocks at the
end of 2023-24 was estimated at 2877 lakh tonnes down by 4.9% from 2742 lakh tonnes
recorded during the corresponding period of last year 2022-23.
In India, during Yasangi (rabi) 2022-23, area under maize was 23.04 lakh hectares (56.93
lakh acres) as compared to 20.23 lakh hectares 50.66 lakh acres) during Rabi 2021-22. Major
maize growing states are Bihar 6.53 lakh ha (16.14 lakh acres), Maharashtra 3.88 lakh ha (9.58
lakh acres), Telangana 2.62 lakh ha (6.48 lakh acres), Tamil Nadu 1.96.870 lakh ha (4.84 lakh
acres) and Andhra Pradesh1.82 lakh ha (4.50 lakh acres). According to 3rd Advance Estimates of
Production of Food grains for 2022-23, all India Maize production estimate was 35.91 million
tonnes.
During 2022-23 as per the 3rd advance estimates of International Grain Council, India’s
maize production was increased by 6.81 % from 336.2 lakh tonnes in 2021-22 to 359.1 lakh
tonnes in 2022-23. Total supply would increase from 513.9 to 548.1 lakh tonnes, export
decreased from 34 to 30 lakh tonnes and consumption increase from 291 to 300 lakh tonnes in
2022-23. Maize ending stock is at 218.1 lakh tonnes in 2022-23 as compared to 188.9 lakh
tonnes in 2021-22. Prices are expected to remain range bound during the next coming days amid
moderate demand.
In Telangana, during Yasangi (rabi) 2022-23 area under maize was 2.62 lakh hectares
(6.48 lakh acres) as against 2.22 lakh hectares (5.49 lakh acres) during rabi 2021-22. Major
maize growing districts in Telangana include Khammam 36709 ha (90709 acres), Nirmal 34962
ha (86393 acres), Warangal Rural 32752 ha (80933 acres), Warangal Urban 18300 ha (45220
acres), Kamareddy 13994 ha (34581 acres), and Mahabubabad 18106 ha (44741 acres).
Contributing nearly 70% of total maize production According to 3rd Advance Estimates of
Production of Food grains for 2022-23, maize production estimate was 28.80 lakh tonnes as
against 28.02 lakh tonnes in 2021-22in Telangana State.
The Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre established under a research project for
development of price forecasting mechanism in the Department of Agricultural Economics,
College of Agriculture, Rajendranagar, Hyderabad at Professor Jayashankar Telangana State
Agricultural University with the financial support of Agricultural Marketing Department,
Telangana State has assessed 2023-24 yasangi (rabi) pre-sowing price forecast of maize. Under
expected normal weather and crop coverage, it is predicted that the maize price per quintal will
be around Rs.1960-2270 at the time of harvesting (Jan to Mar 2024). This price forecast is based
on the monthly modal price of maize obtained for 21 years from Badepalli regulated market
using econometric models like ARIMA, ARIMAX, SARIMA, ARCH, GARCH and also the
market survey.
Note: There may be any possible deviation of the actual prices from the predicted prices in
light of tentative developments in the commodity markets such as change in international
prices, export or import restrictions, etc. And these price forecasts are based on past market
price data & different econometric models and that actual market price may not turn out to be
the same as forecasted.

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