ICICI Securities Results Review On Pharma India Traction Healthy
ICICI Securities Results Review On Pharma India Traction Healthy
Pharma
Pharma companies under our coverage reported strong 11.7%/15.6%/19.0% growth in revenue/EBITDA/PAT in
Q4FY25. Revenue growth was led by RoW markets, while core markets of US and India grew at a slower pace of
6.5%/10.2%, respectively. Uncertainty over price competition in gRevlimid looms in FY26 and could be a major drag for
earnings ahead. However, India biz is likely to grow at a steady pace of ~10% in FY26, driven by price increases and
new launches. Traction among export-focused CDMO companies was healthy; coverage companies reported
11.2%/12.6%/15.2% growth in revenue/EBITDA/PAT. Post Q4FY25 results, we had upgraded FY27 estimates for Pfizer
by ~5% while FY27E earnings of 14 companies were cut by 1–31%. Our top picks: Sun Pharma, Cipla, Torrent, Piramal
Pharma, Akums and Abbott India.
Key financials
Revenue (INR mn) EBITDA (INR mn) PAT (INR mn)
Company
Q4FY25 Q3FY25 Q4FY24 QoQ (%) YoY(%) Q4FY25 Q3FY25 Q4FY24 QoQ (%) YoY(%) Q4FY25 Q3FY25 Q4FY24 QoQ (%) YoY(%)
Sun Pharma 1,29,588 1,32,954 1,19,829 (2.5) 8.1 34,249 38,123 30,915 (10.2) 10.8 28,891 30,037 28,126 (3.8) 2.7
Dr Reddy's 85,060 83,586 70,830 1.8 20.1 20,497 22,991 17,807 (10.8) 15.1 16,547 14,130 12,929 17.1 28.0
Aurobindo 83,821 79,785 75,802 5.1 10.6 17,919 16,278 16,871 10.1 6.2 9,035 8,809 10,094 2.6 (10.5)
Zydus Lifesciences 65,279 52,691 55,338 23.9 18.0 21,649 13,017 16,252 66.3 33.2 13,905 8,048 11,781 72.8 18.0
Cipla 67,297 70,730 61,632 (4.9) 9.2 15,376 19,889 13,159 (22.7) 16.9 12,218 13,779 9,390 (11.3) 30.1
Lupin 56,671 57,677 49,608 (1.7) 14.2 12,921 14,515 9,968 (11.0) 29.6 8,317 9,221 5,083 (9.8) 63.6
Biocon 44,170 38,214 39,171 15.6 12.8 10,782 7,518 9,159 43.4 17.7 3,252 130 1,416 2,401.9 129.6
Glenmark 32,562 33,875 30,630 (3.9) 6.3 5,610 6,002 5,043 (6.5) 11.2 3,466 3,480 1,289 (0.4) 168.9
Torrent Pharma 29,590 28,090 27,450 5.3 7.8 9,810 9,140 8,830 7.3 11.1 5,287 5,030 4,490 5.1 17.8
JB Chemicals 9,495 9,635 8,617 (1.5) 10.2 2,264 2,545 1,981 (11.0) 14.3 1,457 1,625 1,262 (10.3) 15.5
Ajanta Pharma 11,704 11,461 10,541 2.1 11.0 2,972 3,208 2,783 (7.4) 6.8 2,253 2,329 2,027 (3.3) 11.1
Alkem 31,438 33,743 29,358 (6.8) 7.1 3,913 7,594 4,020 (48.5) (2.7) 3,059 6,258 3,039 (51.1) 0.6
Alembic Pharma 17,696 16,927 15,170 4.5 16.7 2,719 2,602 2,601 4.5 4.6 1,564 1,384 1,782 13.0 (12.2)
Natco 12,210 4,748 10,683 157.2 14.3 5,731 388 4,973 1,377.1 15.2 4,810 424 3,863 1,034.4 24.5
Divi's 25,850 23,190 23,030 11.5 12.2 8,860 7,430 7,330 19.2 20.9 6,543 5,809 5,395 12.6 21.3
Abbott India 16,046 16,143 14,386 (0.6) 11.5 4,285 4,361 3,295 (1.7) 30.0 3,670 3,608 2,871 1.7 27.9
Pfizer 5,919 5,380 5,466 10.0 8.3 2,275 1,460 1,894 55.8 20.1 1,966 1,276 1,789 54.1 9.9
GSK Pharma 9,744 9,494 9,298 2.6 4.8 3,332 2,919 2,573 14.1 29.5 2,629 2,299 1,921 14.4 36.9
Piramal Pharma 27,541 22,042 25,524 24.9 7.9 5,610 3,377 5,299 66.1 5.9 1,535 37 1,149 4,075.7 33.6
Akums 10,555 10,104 9,442 4.5 11.8 939 1,214 882 (22.6) 6.5 1,313 617 455 112.7 188.4
Innova Captab 3,147 3,165 2,626 (0.5) 19.8 477 466 381 2.4 25.2 296 342 287 (13.5) 3.0
Cohnace Life 8,412 6,764 7,018 24.4 19.9 2,632 2,396 2,554 9.8 3.1 1,441 1,457 1,721 (1.1) (16.3)
Coverage Universe 7,83,796 7,50,399 7,01,449 4.5 11.7 1,94,822 1,87,434 1,68,570 3.9 15.6 1,33,453 1,20,126 1,12,158 11.1 19.0
Valuation summary
Mkt. Target EPS (INR) RoCE (%) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Company Cap Price Rating
(INR bn) (INR) FY25 FY26E FY27E FY25 FY26E FY27E FY25 FY26E FY27E FY25 FY26E FY27E
Sun 4,031 1,895 ADD 47.2 52.9 59.0 15.6 16.1 16.2 35.6 31.8 28.5 25.9 22.9 20.4
Dr Reddy's 1,101 1,100 HOLD 70.2 69.6 55.8 16.6 14.2 11.1 18.8 19.0 23.7 12.5 12.0 14.0
Aurobindo 680 1,330 ADD 60.3 69.8 83.2 10.2 10.7 11.8 19.2 16.6 13.9 10.2 8.9 7.4
Lupin 909 2,110 HOLD 76.9 87.1 95.9 19.5 18.2 18.1 25.9 22.9 20.8 16.7 15.3 13.8
Cipla 1,212 1,635 ADD 62.7 63.8 68.1 18.6 16.0 15.3 23.9 23.8 22.3 15.9 15.6 14.3
Zydus Life 984 910 HOLD 44.9 43.5 41.2 18.9 15.1 12.8 21.4 22.1 23.3 13.5 13.5 13.5
Biocon 396 270 SELL 2.6 4.6 9.6 2.1 2.5 3.6 126.5 71.8 34.5 18.8 16.2 12.1
Glenmark 449 1,300 REDUCE 49.2 58.3 71.9 16.9 16.9 17.7 32.3 27.3 22.1 19.1 16.6 13.7
Torrent 1,067 3,500 ADD 57.8 74.8 88.5 19.0 24.4 27.5 54.5 42.1 35.6 29.2 24.9 21.7
Alkem 581 5,900 ADD 181.1 194.0 160.4 21.0 19.8 14.7 26.8 25.0 30.3 22.6 20.2 17.7
Ajanta 325 2,500 REDUCE 73.4 86.5 101.7 26.0 26.6 25.3 35.1 29.8 25.3 25.2 21.3 17.7
Alembic 194 885 HOLD 29.0 34.5 42.2 10.8 11.3 13.3 33.9 25.6 20.9 20.2 15.5 13.2
JB Chemicals 263 1,815 ADD 42.4 49.2 56.9 25.0 21.7 18.5 40.0 34.4 29.8 25.1 21.7 18.6
Natco 156 890 HOLD 104.5 69.8 45.1 26.8 15.1 9.0 8.2 12.3 19.0 6.0 8.6 13.8
Abbott India 669 35,750 BUY 665.6 773.6 891.4 36.3 37.4 38.8 47.3 40.0 34.7 38.5 32.7 28.2
Pfizer India 261 5,450 ADD 139.2 158.3 181.4 16.3 16.2 16.7 40.9 36.0 31.4 31.6 27.5 24.1
GSK Pharma 579 2,600 REDUCE 54.5 60.2 67.9 53.7 50.4 45.7 62.8 56.8 50.4 47.1 43.2 38.6
Divi's 1,735 5,610 REDUCE 81.2 106.7 139.9 14.8 17.5 20.5 80.7 61.3 46.8 57.2 43.6 33.1
Piramal Pharma 273 280 BUY 0.7 1.3 4.6 1.4 2.5 6.0 299.6 155.2 44.9 21.9 21.1 14.9
Akums 86 710 BUY 21.0 22.8 30.3 12.0 10.5 12.4 26.9 24.8 18.6 17.8 13.6 10.6
Innova Captab 50 1,030 ADD 22.4 29.2 41.1 10.8 12.2 14.9 39.4 30.2 21.5 28.6 19.7 14.2
Cohnace Life 405 1,365 BUY 14.0 16.2 22.3 18.0 16.3 17.9 75.5 65.1 47.5 46.9 38.9 29.9
• It received EUR 100mn from the EUR 200mn contract for supply of oral liquid formulation to a customer in Europe as upfront
consideration cash on 9th Apr’25; rest will be received over the course of the contract. It will supply products worth INR 3-3.5bn
p.a. on commercialisation from Q4FY27.
• The European CDMO contract will have margin of 15% (in line with current CDMO margin). The company will start expensing the
Akums cost related to this project on commercialisation in Q4FY27.
• The cash balance (including advance for the European contract) will be used for M&A to further strengthen its CDMO (enhancing
capabilities or exposure to new markets) and exports businesses.
• Utilisation at injectable and liquid facility is above 70%, while 40% is for oral solid dosages. New penem/injectable plants are
operating at 10%/ 5%, respectively.
• New product and dosage form launches from the Kathua plant are expected to further accelerate growth.
• CDMO business growth was mainly driven by volumes.
Innova • Revenue growth in domestic branded generic likely to be ~12–13% in FY26.
Captab • It commercialised manufacturing in Jammu on 14 Jan’25 and the plant generated revenue of INR 360mn in Q4FY25.
• Jammu shall achieve INR 4bn revenue for FY26 (GST benefit of ~INR 300-350mn). Depreciation charge of this plant would be INR
240-250mn p.a.
US Commentary: Q4FY25
Company US Business Commentary
• Growth in US was mainly led specialty portfolio, which helped reduce the impact of decline in generic biz.
• In generics business, Sun is witnessing more competition in some products.
• It launched two generic products in US in Q4FY25.
• Revlimid was not a significant contributor to sales in Q4 (flat QoQ).
• Management has requested FDA for a re-audit of its Halol plant while remediation at Mohali and Dadra is ongoing, post which
Sun Pharma
the company shall intimate the USFDA.
• Unloxcyt has been approved by the USFDA and it would be launched in US post completion of the acquisition.
• Leqselvi is likely to be launched in US in Q2FY26 (delayed by 3 quarters). Patent litigation is ongoing; however, the court has
not restricted it from launching the product. In case of an unfavourable trial ruling for Sun, the launch may get delayed till
patent expiry in Dec’26.
• Volume gains led to growth in oral solid biz; pricing was stable during the quarter.
• OTC portfolio continues to grow and momentum is expected to accelerate in next couple of quarters.
• New launches in oral solids and volume increase in recent launches will drive growth in the segment.
• It launched five products in US in Q4FY25.
Aurobindo • gRevlimid revenue for the quarter was in line with management’s expectation.
Pharma • FY26 is expected to be a muted year for Eugia due to pending regulatory clearance of Eugia Unit 3 and lower revenue of
gRevlimid. The company has six limited competition launches in FY27 which will boost growth.
• Invested INR 10bn in setting up multiple 15KL bioreactor lines; plant to commercialise by Q2FY26 and validation batches will
start from Q4FY26
• Biosimilar portfolio will have seven products in regulated markets by FY28-30.
• It launched seven new products in the US in Q4 and 18 products in FY25.
• Growth in US in FY25 was primarily driven by new product launches, increased volumes of select key products.
• Pricing scenario in the US is quite better than last year. Currently, it is in low single digit.
Dr. Reddy's • Pricing in gRevlimid continues to be stable.
Labs • The company is preparing for various scenarios of tariff imposition in the US. Generic pharma companies may not absorb the cost
of tariff. Mandating tariff cost absorption for pharma companies may result in disruption in supply chain and create shortages
• USFDA has accepted biologics license application (BLA) for AVT03 (bDenosumab) developed by partner Alvotech
• DRL has partnered with Shanghai Henlius Biotech, Inc. to commercialise HLX15 (bDaratumumab) in US and Europe.
• The company is looking to collaborate with PBMs to manufacture their private label products for the US market.
• Ranibizumab and Pegfilgrastim are likely to be launched in FY27 while Aflibercept and Etanercept may be launched in US in FY30.
• Complex injectables include pipeline of depot, liposomal and peptide injectables.
• Injectables (Risperidone, Liraglutide (Victoza) and Glucagon) are expected to make strong contribution in H2FY26.
• It expects approval for liraglutide (Victoza) and Glucagon in Jul-Aug’25. Liraglutide (Saxenda) is likely to be launched in FY27.
• The company continues to sell Mirabegron in US. Next trial date is in Feb’26. Management is confident of its position in this
Lupin
litigation.
• Albuterol is witnessing pricing pressure and currently has close to 19-20% market share.
• Lupin is likely to lose exclusivity in Tolvaptan in H2FY26 followed by Spiriva next year, which may restrict its quarterly US sales
run-rate to USD 250mn.
• Risperidone should be approved in next couple of months.
• Spiriva DPI will be launched in FY29.
• Sales of Lanreotide in Q4FY25 were higher than Q3FY25. Manufacturing of this product has picked up and management is
confident of reaching its prior market share levels in the next couple of quarters.
• The company will launch nano-paclitaxel in US market in near term. The product has sales of USD 800-900mn and continues
to be a three-player market. The company is hopeful of gaining a significant market share in this product.
• It has filed six respiratory assets including Symbicort and Qvar. It may file four more products in next 12-18 months.
• It has filed gAdvair from an alternate site in US with the USFDA and is on track to launch the product in FY26.
• The company may file 10 complex and peptide products in FY26.
Cipla • Peptide products are likely to be manufactured at a CMO site as the company does not have an injectable manufacturing plant.
• Peptide products in pipeline are expected to be launched (one decent size product) in H2FY26.
• Focus of US legislation is on new drug products. 505b(2) and generic products are unlikely to be impacted due to its
implementation.
• Loss of exclusivity in gRevlimid may slow down US business growth for the company; impact of it may be offset by new
launches.
• US business is likely to clock sales of ~USD 220mn in Q1FY26.
• The company will be launching Nilotinib in FY26 while gSymbicort is likely to be launched in US in FY27.
• Usnoflast received USFDA approval to conduct Phase II(b) clinical trials in patients with ALS. It has also granted Orphan drug
designation status for ALS indication.
• Zydus has entered into an exclusive agreement with Zhuhai Beihai Biotech for BEIZRAY (albumin solubilized cocetaxel
Zydus
injection), a 505(B)(2) product for the US market. It also entered into an exclusive agreement with Synthon for a novel 505(B)(2)
Lifesciences
oncology product. NDA for the product is likely to be filed in FY26.
• US formulations business growth was driven by volume expansion and new product launches. Sequential growth was driven
by Mirabegron and other new launches. gRevlimid revenue was flat QoQ.
Outlook
Company Guidance
• Revenue growth is likely to be in mid to high single digit in FY26.
• Management aims to continue to outperform the market growth ahead.
• Sun plans to spend USD 100mn on commercialisation of new specialty products (promotion and addition of field force).
Sun Pharma • R&D could be 6-8% of sales for FY26 while ETR is likely to go up in FY26 from its current levels of ~17%.
• The topline data of phase-3 trial for psoriatic arthritis indication of Ilumya is expected in H2FY25 and the topline data
of phase-2 study of SCD044 is expected to happen within a month.
• The company may initiate phase-2 trials of type-2 diabetes indication for GL0034 (GLP-1 drug) in H2CY25.
• Revenue outlook for FY26 is grim as it expects price competition in gRevlimid and commercial revenue from PLI
project to take 4-6 months to begin
• Tariff announcement is expected in Jul’25; company does not anticipate any major impact.
Aurobindo Pharma • EBITDA margin may be stable at current level of ~21% in FY26.
• ETR is expected to be 28-30% in FY26.
• Company is likely to explore buyback post Aug’25.
• Other operating income could be ~INR 2bn in FY26.
• Targeting double digit revenue growth and flattish EBITDA margin in FY26.
• Semaglutide and biosimilar launches may help the company offset the impact and grow on the base of gRevlimid.
• EBITDA margin and RoCE may remain above 25% while R&D and S&G costs may be in similar range of 8-8.5% and
28-29%, post loss of exclusivity in gRevlimid.
Dr. Reddy's Labs • Management expects gross margin to improve in quarters ahead.
• EBITDA margin in the acquired NRT portfolio in Europe could be ~25%.
• The company could rationalise its R&D cost through strategic collaborations.
• ETR could be flat YoY at ~25% in FY26.
• Capex for FY26 will be ~INR 27bn (flat YoY).
• Divi’s continues to be quite strong in both the segments it operates in; it is poised to gain from the opportunities in GLP-
1 and other peptides.
• Management aims for double-digit growth next year.
• RFQ and RFPs have increased in the last couple of months as compared to historical run-rate.
• The company is investing in new growth opportunities such as continuous flow chemistry and bio-catalyst for small
molecules.
Divi's • FY26 capex shall mainly be towards new projects for INR 14bn and additional maintenance capex of INR 2.5–3bn.
• Sea freight cost is expected to remain stable in Q1 while air freight cost may ease ahead.
• The company is shifting KSM manufacturing from its existing two plants to Kakinada, which should free up capacities
at these units for GLP-1 products.
• Assets worth INR 14.07bn have been capitalised for Kakinada. It would further incur INR 2bn in capex for phase 1.
• It recently signed two agreements with global pharma MNCs for APIs and advanced intermediate manufacturing.
• Two new CS projects are likely to be commercialised towards end-CY26 or early-CY27.
• Management expects EBITDA margin of 23.5-24.5% in FY26.
• Loss of exclusivity in gRevlimid may slow down US business growth for the company; impact of it may be offset by
new launches.
Cipla
• Capital allocation ahead will be mainly towards strengthening India business (M&A and MR addition),
partnership/M&A for complex products in the US and dividend payments.
• R&D spending will be between 6-6.5% in FY26.
• Management is confident of sustaining growth in India and US.
• It aims to establish specialty biz in US through acquisitions and 505b(2) pipeline. Respiratory and CNS are the key
focus areas for specialty portfolio.
Lupin
• R&D expense is likely to increase to 8.5% of sales in FY26 (8.0% in FY25).
• The company will raise a maximum of INR 100bn in debt to fund any large acquisition in US and Europe. It will look to
acquire assets which can deliver 20% RoE and a payback within 4-5 years.
• Management guided for an overall double-digit revenue growth in FY26.
• EBITDA margin could be ~26% in FY26, impacted by lower revenue share of Revlimid and Asacol in US and higher
R&D expenses of Saraglitozar clinical trial.
Zydus • Sales of gRevlimid is likely to be spread across remaining quarters in CY25, as the company has started facing
Lifesciences pricing pressure in this product.
• R&D expenses shall be 8% of sales in FY26.
• Zydus is a key contender of MR vaccine in India and also has opportunity to participate in the UNICEF tender along
with tenders in Egypt. Ramp up in vaccine portfolio is expected to happen in FY26.
• R&D expense may increase to 5.4% of sales in FY26 vs 5% in FY25 due to increase in investment for India and Brazil
Torrent and development of complex products (USD 5-10mn cost of development per product) for the US market.
Pharma • 200-300 MR shall be added in Q1FY26; the company would have 6,800-6,900 MRs (600-650 in Curatio) in FY26.
• The company is likely to turn net cash positive by Q3FY27.
• It has recently announced its intent to raise INR 45bn through a combination of QIP and private placement and aims to
complete the first tranche by Jun’25.
Biocon
• The proceeds will be utilised towards servicing the put option from the investment in Biocon Biologics.
• R&D will be between 6-9% of sales.
• Management is targeting double digit revenue growth in medium term.
• Gross margin is expected between 62.5-63.5% in FY26.
• EBITDA margin could remain flat in FY26 as the company is increasing growth-related investments and R&D.
Alkem
• R&D spending will be ~5% in FY26, increase is mainly towards product filings in US and RoW markets.
• It will incur capex of INR 7-7.5bn (including INR 2-2.5bn for Enzene) in FY26. The company is building a new R&D facility
and a manufacturing plant for India biz. Besides, it will also pay balance INR 700mn for Medtech biz acquisition.
Company Guidance
• Tax rate will be 13-15% in FY26 and 35-37% for FY27. The company has MAT tax credit of INR 14.5bn and will move
closer to 25% once it completely exhausts MAT tax credit.
• Management guided for revenue growth of 10-12% in FY26 with EBITDA margin of 19-20% led by Ryaltis, new
launches in US and benefit from R&D spends.
• It aims to generate INR 3-4bn of cash from core business post interest and dividend payments in FY26.
• Effective tax rate will be 21-22% in FY26.
• IGI spends will be ~USD 70mn in each of the next 3 years. The company is in discussion for an out-licensing deal of ISB
Glenmark
2001 and a decision is expected soon. Proceeds from the out-licensing deal are expected to cover the R&D budget of
IGI for the next 3 years.
• R&D likely to be 6-7% of sales in FY26.
• Working capital cycle is likely to be at current level of 104 days.
• Interest expense is likely to be lower than Q4FY25 levels ahead.
• ESOP cost will be INR 410-460mn/INR 260mn in FY26/27, respectively (total INR 750mn in next 24-30 months).
• Management guided 30-50bps improvement in GM in the range of 66-67% and ex ESOP EBITDA margin of 27-29%
for FY26.
• Management continues to evaluate inorganic opportunities in India and other markets. Payback period is 7-8 years.
JB Chemicals • India and CDMO businesses will account for 75-80% of the company in next 2-3 years.
• Capex outlay of INR 1bn in next year (INR 550-600mn growth capex).
• India business could continue to outperform market by 3-4%.
• Other income too may be in the range of INR 650-700mn in FY26.
• Expect 12-14% increase in productivity over the next 2-3 years.
• US biz is expected to grow at 15-19%, while branded generics will grow at 13-14%.
• India biz will grow 200bps faster than market for next 2 years.
• Gross margin is expected to be between 76-78% while EBITDA margin may be between 27-28% in FY26.
Ajanta
• Other expenses are likely to remain elevated in FY26.
Pharma
• Effective tax rate is expected to remain at ~23%.
• It will incur capex of INR 3bn and R&D will be ~5% of sales in FY26.
• Future free cashflow may be deployed for capacity addition and M&A or maybe distributed as dividends to shareholders.
• Management has guided for double-digit growth in India in FY26. US is expected to grow in the range of 14–19%.
Other international markets will grow at 10–12% and API biz will grow ~10%.
Alembic
• Maintenance capex of INR 4–4.5bn including spillover from the existing projects.
Pharma
• R&D is expected to be INR 6–6.5bn, of which 30–35% shall be for injectables and complex products.
• Gross margin to be in the range of 70–71% for FY26.
• Base business is likely to grow 7-10% (excluding launch of semaglutide and risdiplam) ahead.
• Management guides for 20%/30% dip in revenue/ profit in FY26 (ex semaglutide and risdiplam launch).
• It intends to incur capex of INR 3-3.5bn and R&D of INR 4bn in FY26.
• Driven by gRevlimid, management expects H1FY26 to be stronger than H2FY26.
Natco
• Natco has a 400acre land that can be monetised in next 4-5 years.
• Management targets revenue of INR 1.6-1.7bn and EBITDA breakeven of its agrochem biz in FY26.
• Export formulations ex-US could have sales of INR 8-9bn in FY25.
• The company is actively exploring inorganic opportunities and intends to finalise a deal in FY26.
• Management guided for mid-teen digit revenue growth (excluding sales of 1 commercial product) in FY26 and mid to
high teen growth in FY27.
• In a steady state, gross margin could be between 64-65% and it expects mid-teen EBITDA margin for FY26 and 19-
20% in FY27.
Piramal • Overall debt is currently at 2.7x and is expected to increase slightly in FY26. It intends to bring it down to 1x by FY30.
• It is setting up a new CDMO manufacturing line at Digwal facility and increasing the KSM manufacturing at Dahej
• Maintained guidance of USD 1.2bn revenue by FY30 with 25% margin.
• It will incur USD 90mn expansion at 2 sites in Lexington (addition of commercial-scale serology-actable capabilities)
and Riverview (addition of development and commercial-scale).
• Management aims for sustainable growth in its general medicine segment ahead.
GSK • As per IQVIA, IPM is expected to grow by 8-9% in FY26 and the company expects to outpace market growth in FY26.
• EBITDA margin is likely to sustain in the current range of ~31% in FY26.
• It will incur capex of INR 3bn in FY26 (including maintenance capex of INR 1bn).
• EBITDA margin of the company is likely to improve in FY26 backed by curbing losses in trade generics and API division.
Akums • Opportunity in sickle cell product is subject to allocation of tender from Indian government; it is not factored into the
revenue growth guidance of the company.
• Management guides high single digit volume growth with flattish EBITDA margin for CDMO in FY26.
• Management expects 25% revenue CAGR over the next 3 years.
Innova Captab • Margins are likely to improve going ahead led by operational efficiency and GST benefit.
• EBITDA breakeven of Jammu plant would happen once it achieves quarterly revenue run-rate of INR 500-550mn.
• Management has maintained guidance of achieving USD 1bn revenue by 2030, driven by strong traction across all the
three verticals and aims for double-digit revenue growth in FY26.
• Q1FY26 will be a muted quarter, as shipment timings are skewed towards H2FY26.
Cohance
• EBITDA margin in FY26 is likely to be in low 30s and will be scaled to mid-30s in medium term.
Lifesciences
• EBITDA margin dip in FY26 could be mainly due to change in business mix, integration of NJ bio and Sapla and
inventory destocking.
• Capex for FY26 will be higher at INR 3.5bn, mainly towards capacity addition for NJ Bio.
India growth driven by better pricing and Exclusivities and new launches continue to
volumes boost US revenue
India revenue % Growth (RHS) US revenue % growth
2,30,000 14.8 16 3,000 30
25.3
14
2,20,000 2,500 25
11.1
10.1 10.2 12
2,10,000 2,000 20
10
7.6 13.4
2,00,000 6.7 8 1,500 13.0 15
11.0
(INR mn)
(USD mn)
10.1 10.0
(%)
(%)
4.8 6
1,90,000 6.1 1,000 6.5 10
4 9.8
1,80,000 500 2.9 5
2
1,70,000 0 0 0
Q1FY24
Q2FY24
Q3FY24
Q4FY24
Q1FY25
Q2FY25
Q3FY25
Q4FY25
Q4FY23
Q1FY24
Q2FY24
Q3FY24
Q4FY24
Q1FY25
Q2FY25
Q3FY25
Q4FY25
Source: Company data, I-Sec research Source: Company data, I-Sec research
Revenue of our coverage universe grew Gross margin reported a minor dip
11.7% YoY
Revenue % Growth (RHS) Gross margin
69
9,00,000 19.4 21 67.9 67.8
68
8,00,000 17.4 19 67.1 67.1 67.0
7,00,000 17 67
13.9
6,00,000 13.1 15
66 65.3 65.5
5,00,000 11.7 13 65.0
9.6 9.8 10.3 65
(INR mn)
(INR mn)
4,00,000 11 64.4
(%)
11.8
3,00,000 9 64
2,00,000 7
63
1,00,000 5
0 3 62
Q4FY23
Q1FY24
Q2FY24
Q3FY24
Q4FY24
Q1FY25
Q2FY25
Q3FY25
Q4FY25
Q4FY23
Q1FY24
Q2FY24
Q3FY24
Q4FY24
Q1FY25
Q2FY25
Q3FY25
Q4FY25
Source: Company data, I-Sec research Source: Company data, I-Sec research
Operating leverage and cost curbs drive Adj. profit for our pharma coverage universe
EBITDA margin expansion rose 19.0% YoY
EBITDA Margin (%) (RHS) PAT % Growth (RHS)
2,50,000 27 1,60,000 60
26.0
25.5 1,40,000 48.4
26 50
2,00,000 25.0 24.9 43.4
1,20,000
25
24.0 35.9 40
1,50,000 23.9 1,00,000 31.2
23.4 24
80,000 24.6 30
(INR mn)
(INR mn)
23
(%)
(%)
0 20 0 0
Q4FY23
Q1FY24
Q2FY24
Q3FY24
Q4FY24
Q1FY25
Q2FY25
Q3FY25
Q4FY25
Q4FY23
Q1FY24
Q2FY24
Q3FY24
Q4FY24
Q1FY25
Q2FY25
Q3FY25
Q4FY25
Source: Company data, I-Sec research Source: Company data, I-Sec research
Cipla
Akums
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1400
1200
1600
Torrent
500
700
900
1500
1700
1900
2100
1100
1300
500
600
700
800
1000
1100
1200
1000
2000
3000
4000
400
900
3000
4000
4500
5000
6000
6500
1500
2500
3500
3500
5500
400
600
800
1000
1200
1600
1800
1400
May-22 Jun-22
Pfizer India
Aug-24 Jun-22 Jun-22 Jun-22
Sun Pharma
Cohance Life
Nov-22 Dec-22
Oct-24 Dec-22 Dec-22 Dec-22
May-23
Jun-23
Source: Bloomberg
Jun-23 Jun-23 Jun-23
Dec-24 Nov-23
Price charts
Dec-23 Dec-23 Dec-23 Dec-23
Feb-25 Jun-24
Jun-24 Jun-24 Jun-24 Jun-24
Apr-25 Dec-24
Dec-24 Dec-24 Dec-24 Dec-24
Jun-25
Jun-25 Jun-25 Jun-25 Jun-25 Jun-25
Alkem
1300
1500
400
800
1100
600
100
300
500
700
900
1200
1600
1000
1400
1400
2400
1900
400
900
1000
1400
1200
400
600
800
1000
2000
3000
4000
2000
3000
5000
6000
7000
1500
2500
3500
4000
Jan-24 Jun-22 Jun-22 Jun-22
Dr Reddy's
Jun-22 Jun-22
GSK Pharma
JB Chemicals
Feb-24 Dec-22 Dec-22 Dec-22
Innova Captab
Apr-24 Dec-22 Dec-22
Jun-24 Jun-23 Jun-23 Jun-23 Jun-23 Jun-23
Zydus Lifesciences
Divi's
Natco
Ajanta
Biocon
100
200
250
300
400
450
150
350
200
400
600
1200
1400
1600
1800
800
1000
400
600
800
1200
1400
1600
1800
1000
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2000
3000
5000
6000
7000
4000
Jun-22
Aurobindo
1000
1200
1400
400
600
0
100
150
200
300
350
800
50
250
Alembic
1400
1900
2400
2900
900
400
600
100
1100
1600
2100
15000
20000
25000
35000
30000
Glenmark
Oct-22 Jun-22
Jun-22 Jun-22
Jun-22
Abbott India
Feb-23 Dec-22
Jun-23 Dec-22 Dec-22 Dec-22
Piramal Pharma
Oct-23 Jun-23 Jun-23 Jun-23
Jun-23
Feb-24 Dec-23 Dec-23 Dec-23
Dec-23
Jun-24 Jun-24
Jun-24 Jun-24 Jun-24
Oct-24
Feb-25 Dec-24 Dec-24 Dec-24 Dec-24
Jun-25 Jun-25 Jun-25 Jun-25 Jun-25
11
Pharma | Sector Update | 08 June 2025
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