Cloud Making Machines
Cloud Making Machines
Tijl Schmelzer
Tijl Schmelzer
0. Background
We cannot change the cards we were dealt
Glider pilots in Belgium, and especially in Flanders, are poor slobs. Each year we are again a bit disillusioned by the pitiful weather conditions, which are amongst the worst of the world. Apart from emigrating or going abroad for our holidays, we unfortunately cant change anything about that. Each year we are again disappointed about the dwindling open airspace that we can use for our cross country flights. Also in this respect, we are near the shameful bottom of the world. Unfortunately, since our contribution to the economy is a couple of orders of magnitude lower than the ones of the commercial low-cost carriers that eat up the free airspace, we dont hold a lot of bargaining power. The situation will most likely only worsen.
1. Concept
The area in Germany we fly into, is Nord-Rhine Westphalia. This is one of the most industrialized areas in the world, and on top of that densely populated. All this industry and all these people require a lot of energy. Therefore, the area has been crammed with power stations, for the largest part owned and operated by the energy giant RWE AG. The largest ones are all brown coal power plants that are used for baseload power. This means that they run almost always at full capacity, and this reliability is quite useful to us.
Name Kraftwerk Niederauem Kraftwerk Weisweiler Kraftwerk Frimmersdorf Kraftwerk Voerde Kraftwerk Neurath Gersteinwerk Kraftwerk Scholven Kraftwerk Herne Baukau Kraftwerk Heyden Kraftwerk Veltheim Trianel GuD-Kraftwerk Hamm-Uentrop GuD-Kraftwerk Knapsack Kraftwerk Ibbenbren Kraftwerk Bergkamen Kraftwerk Werdohl-Elverlingsen Kraftwerk Huckingen Kraftwerk Westfalen Kraftwerk Lausward Kraftwerk Lnen MWel Energysource MWth Location 3864 Braunkohle Bergheim-Niederauem 2293 Braunkohle/Erdgas 185 Eschweiler 2265 Braunkohle 30 Grevenbroich 2222 Steinkohle Voerde 2100 Braunkohle Grevenbroich 2096 Steinkohle/Erdgas Werne 2056 Steinkohle Gelsenkirchen 950 Steinkohle Herne 920 Steinkohle Petershagen 880 Steinkohle/Gas/l Porta Westfalica 850 Erdgas Hamm-Uentrop 800 Erdgas Hrth-Knapsack 770 Anthrazit Ibbenbren 747 Steinkohle Bergkamen 637 Steinkohle/Erdgas Werdohl 600 Gichtgas aus HKM-Stahlwerk/EDuisburg-Huckingen 588 Steinkohle Hamm-Uentrop 520 Erdgas/Heizl EL Dsseldorf-Hafen 500 Steinkohle Lnen Height of stack Location2 200 m 505946N,0064017O 180 m 505021N,0061926O 3 * 160 m, 1 * 200 m 510316N,0063433O 230 m; 240 m; 250 m 513436N,0064107O 195 m 510216N,0063643O 282 m 514025N,0074314O 302 m + 240,5 m, 5 Khl 513613N,0070007O 300 m 513302N,0071115O 225 m 522254N,0085955O 140 m 70m 275m 282 m 282 m 200 m 150 / 99 m 250 m
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Ofinterest to us are the large ones located between Aachen, Kln and Dsseldorf: Niederausem (which Ill call Bergheim from here on) is with an electric capacity of 3800MW the second largest power station in Europe (and with 200m the tallest cooling tower of the world). Weisweiler has a capacity of 2300MW And the two power stations next to Grevenbroich: Frimmersdorf and Neurath (both 2000+MW)
These 4 stations all run on brown coal, and are cooled with water evaporation in huge cooling towers. The excess heat created in these power stations is thus released in the air in a concentrated plume. This has two advantages for us: 1. When there is no thermal activity and the surrounding air is cool, the steam of the power station will rise, with the vertical velocity and top of the rising air depending on the local meteorological conditions and power output of the plant. So, in the right synoptic situation before and after regular thermal activity during the day, gliders can rise in these plumes, and even punch trough an inversion layer. 2. With thermal activity, these power stations act as triggers, and they increase thermal strength. This makes decisions much easier for us as pilots. It increases our average climb rates and we can optimize our glide speeds and arrival heights very easy to MacCready rules. This is especially important later in the afternoon, when cross country speeds go down due to unreliability of thermals and our psychological reaction to that, ie. flying to careful. In the right weather, these power stations thus enable us to: 1. Start flying very early in the morning, before thermal activity begins. 2. Fly confident and fast in reliable strong thermals, while thermal activity around us deteriorates. 3. Keep flying in the evening, while thermal activity has ceased everywhere else.
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If we would optimally use the opportunities these power stations give us, we could vastly increase our flight distances. Wilfried Groskinsky has already been doing this for many years, and his flights brought this underused potential to my attention.
The steam clouds punching through an inversion layer without thermal activity. Frimmersdorf (left), Neurath (middle) and Bergheim (right)
The largest of these two power stations (Bergheim and Weisweiler), lie on a straight line from our starting points in Flanders. Frimmersdorf and Neurath are a bit from the Weisweiler-Bergheim axis, and lie close to airspace (not a problem when you can activate Segelflugsektor Gustorf). The good news 1 is that these power stations will remain open for the foreseeable future. Due to the planned closing of the Nuclear power stations, they will even expand (large expansion and modernization plans for Bergheim and Neurath are under governments investigation). The bad news is solar electricity: it will eat away the base load hours of these large plants, potentially reducing the electrical output and thus also heat output in the periods when we need it the most: during spring and summer days with loads of sunshine. Off course, we need the power plants the most during the transition period, and not during the maximum solar output of the day. But it remains unclear how the large brown coal plants will be used during ramp up and ramp down times with extremely high levels of installed solar capacity (this was a subject of my Master thesis). The power plants are already becoming equipped with CCGT blocks to accommodate this. All in all, this could reduce the reliability of the thermal output of these power stations in the near future. Additionally, Bergheim could get a hybrid stack, of which I currently cannot estimate the impact on thermal production. A last point of attention is that the industrial site of Dormagen, which houses a CHP, is on the same axis as well. This is a well known trigger for thermals as well, which could further increase the reach of our non-solar-driven glider flight.
1
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2. Flight Planning
A relatively easy 1000km
In November and December 2011, I spent about 150 hours, going through flight data, airspace maps, transforming my MacCready-and-meteo-data-based Excel-model, and writing this report to find a strategy to make optimal use of the Weisweiler-Bergheim axis. The flight plans seen here are calculated for a 18mclassgliderwithasustainerengine.Openclass gliders should thus be able to use this plan without a problem, and even stretch all legs a bit. I will come back on the potential for other glider classes in the last section of this report. A result of this flight planning is seen in the figure bellow. This task satisfies the requirements for the FAI 1000km diploma (3 turnpoints with proper spacing). I should mention here that all estimates for numbers (time of 1st and last thermals, cross country speeds, climb rate at power stations) are conservative, and are much lower than the weather conditions of the best days of the year.
Vluchtplanning
Flight plan for the optimal official 1000km from Flanders using startsequence1.
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WEEK
Kwaadmech 09:09 12km 7min 11km 7min Lummen 09:16 11km 7min Ford Genk 09:30 EBP05A Helchteren GND Kiewit EBP05C Helchteren 09:23 EBP05C Helchteren 762m FL50 16km-600m 15min
1372m
Afvliegen op 1500m!
762m
610m
GND
Startsequence1: Problematic to obtain the necessary height if no access to TRA North Alpha
WEEK
No clearance: KB CTR KB TMA HELCHTEREN A Clearance: HELCHTEREN C TRA North Alpha LCTA All to FL50 EVENTUEEL HOGER hPa 1000 1005 1010 1015 1020 1025 1030 FL50 1410 1450 1500 1530 1580 1620 1660
11km 7min
Kwaadmech 09:09 12km 7min 11km 7min Lummen 09:16 EBP05A Helchteren GND EBP05C Helchteren EBP05C Helchteren 762mAGL FL50-FL70? FL50 25km-600m 20min
Kiewit 09:23
Start 09:43
1372m
BEEK TMA1 475mMSL FL95
Afvliegen op 1500m!
762m
610m
GND
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WEEKEND
FL 50 or FL70
Start 09:45
Afvliegen op 1500m!
610m
GND
Startsequence3: Problematic to obtain the necessary height if low pressure and LFA G2 Nord not activated
An alternative startpoint
Because of the difficulties associated with the regular startpoint, an alternative startpoint is placed in the Voerstreek. This startpoint has many advantages: Almost optimal distance from 1st power plant (Weisweiler) OntheWeisweiler-Bergheim axis, so more on track and less detours No airspace permission required No transponder required
And a couple of disadvantages: Long distance to reach (ca 1 hour from Keiheuvel) Descending below 611m MSL for Liege TMA2 Long distance home in the evening (ca 40min to Keiheuvel), reducing the potential flight time
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Startpoint 2: Optimal location on Weisweiler-Bergheim axis. Closer to Weisweiler, and thus lower required start altitude (<1300m), and thus no airspace difficulties. And still (but barely) in Flanders!
No clearance: KB CTR 11km 7min KB TMA HELCHTEREN A en C TRA North Alpha Kwaadmech LCTA 09:03
12km 7min
WEEK - Alternatief
EBP05A Helchteren GND 11km 7min Kiewit EBP05C Helchteren 09:17 762mAGL FL50
Lummen 09:10
33km 20min
1372m
762m
CTR LIEGE GND Vise 09:37
610m
13km 8min
600m 10min
Start sequence 4: Optimal start sequence. The downsides are the long engine run, and the difficulty to reach for pure gliders.
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An early bird
110km cadeau!
E
W S
2000m 1500m 1000m 500m 0m 09:55 10:10 10:30 11:00 35km 30km 45km
Early to bed, early to rise, makes a man healthy, wealthy and olc winner of the day.
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Thermische vlucht
WP1 14:15
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220km cadeau!
3 L
W F
2000m 1500m 1000m 500m 0m 18:00 20:30 20:50 40km 30km
2
22km 22km 30km 26km 26km 30km 35km
The power plant jojo (altitudes, kilometers and speeds vary according to synoptic situation).
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Getting home
The flight is not over yet: we still have to manage to get home with the engine. Time can be an issue here, especially until early May when the days are still short. This means it is necessary to know the exact sunset time of that day andthetimeneededtoreachtheairports.Onsomeoccasions, getting back to the home airfield wont be possible. Not on this map are the airfields of Theux-Verviers and Aachen-Merzbrueck, which are both much closer to the finish than Zutendaal, and potentially reachable without use of the engine. A landing in Belgium is highly preferable due to the later official sunset times (Ukkel vs. Kln/Dusseldorf can differ 20 minutes). A last issue is the size of the fuel tank. I estimate with the typical 13liters of fuel on board, and the consumption during the morning and evening engine runs, around 3 usable liters will be remaining after arrival at Keiheuvel. Dont forget to top it up before take-off!
Terugvlucht
Local time
20/04/2012 25/04/2012 30/04/2012 5/05/2012 10/05/2012
1372m
762m
CTR LIEGE GND
610m
1372 m
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Optimal field to start the engine above (both coming from the North and the South). Ground elevation is 50m MSL, Arrival altitude is around 250m AGL. Location is 1km from TMA Beek, and 1,5km from CTR Liege.
Good fields to start the engine above (coming from the South-East, with low altitude). Ground elevation is 120m MSL, Close to TMA Beek. You will need to fly under TMA Liege with engine running at 110-115kph with airbrakes opened a bit.
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Seasonal timing
An analysis of Wilfried Groskinskysflightsfrom2007-2011, shows that the most large distance flights are flown in the beginning of May. However, the largest distances (900km+) are flown from the beginning of May until the beginning of July. Thelongestflightof1139kmisflownon17July. An additional concern for this flight is off course sunset. 1000km flights before ca 15 April should be fairly difficult because of this constraint. In the best year (2010), he flew 11 times over 900km with a Nimbus 4m. I believe in this type of weather 1000km with the proposed strategy could be completed with an 18m glider (if there are no frontal disruptions reducing the flyable area). Taking all into consideration, I think the period of 20 April to 20 July is the window to do this flight, with no clear best period. I believe that the weather situation to complete this task should come around at the very least 5 times each year, and in a good year over ten times. This flight is a solid plan, but not nearly the maximum distance that can be reached with this strategy, as will be discussed in the last part of this report. (Caveat: it is hard to draw reliable conclusions out of only these files, as there are many possible biases that could skew the data).
1100 Distance km 1000
10.9-11.9 9.9-10.9 8.9-9.9 7.9-8.9 6.9-7.9 5.9-6.9 4.9-5.9 3.9-4.9 2.9-3.9 1.9-2.9
900
800
700
600
0.9-1.9 -0.1-0.9
17/04
24/04
1/05
8/05
15/05
22/05
29/05
5/06
12/06
19/06
26/06
3/07
10/07
17/07
24/07
31/07
7/08
14/08
21/08
500 28/08
Amount of flights above a certain distance in a certain week from 2007-2011 (Grosskinsky)
1000 Distance km 900
800
700
600
17/04
24/04
1/05
8/05
15/05
22/05
29/05
5/06
12/06
19/06
26/06
3/07
10/07
17/07
24/07
31/07
7/08
14/08
21/08
500 28/08
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However, we want to optimize the distance of the total flight. The solution then highly depends on the situation. If the weather is bad in the thermal part of the flight, this would ask for a maximization of the distance of the jojo. This would require to fly at slower speeds to maximize the glide angle and thus the legs of the jojo. The optimal turnpoint location thus depends on the day. In summary: If the weather is good during the thermal part, you can use a MacCready calculation. If the thermal part of the day is relatively short, you have to maximize the Jojo and thus fly at the speed of maximum glide. In most cases, a fairly good answer will be somewhere in between both extremes.
Depending on the forecasted weather conditions, I calculate the distances and speeds to fly the day before the flight, and choose the waypoints (and check the next morning with the latest model run). It is better to be a bit more conservative, than to land out next to a power plant. But dont be too conservative either, as a shorter jojo, means a longer thermal flight. Jojo in the morning or evening Onsome days, it could be beneficial to do the Kraftwerk jojo in the morning. This is especially the case with a highly stable air mass, when regular thermal activity starts late in the day. Typically this would occur later on in the year (beginning of June until August). The solution is off course quite easy: fly the standard task the other way around. However, for the really big tasks, I think it is beneficial to do the jojo in the evening. The reasoning is as follows: Ontheperfectday,earlyinthemorning, cloudbase is still low, but clouds are standing close together. With good use of the energy lines, this enables us to obtain high cross-country speeds. In the evening, good thermals can still be available, but they become unreliable. Cloudbase is high, but inter-thermal distances are large. Missing one good climb, will lead to a lot of time
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wasted in a weak thermal, or even an early landout. This forces us to fly very conservative in the evening, which worsens cross-country speeds even further. I thus believe, we could benefit more from the power plant jojo in the evening than in the morning. But, this theory is debatable, and experience over the coming years will show us the right way to plan our tasks.
Making it a bit more difficult: The Out-And-Return You lose 2 legs, and only have the advantage of ca 110km before the thermal part, and ca 65km after the thermal part. To fly 1000km, this means you would have to fly 825km during the thermal part of the day. The only turnpoint would be at the edge of the Berlin TMA. A very nice flight indeed, but the opportunities to complete this flight are much rarer than the conditions necessary for the standard 1000km.
The hardest one: The FAI triangle It is also possible to use the power plants for an FAI triangle. However, there are some significant detours to avoid airspace, and to get in line of the power plant axis (ca 5%). The larger the flight, the smaller the detours. The30%OLCbonuscanbewellworthit.
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The easy ones: using all the 6 legs OLC and Charron.line give us To make things easier, it is possible to use up to 5 turnpoints and 6 legs. The two extra legs (used as an extra swing of the jojo) add 155km to the non-thermal part. This leads to a thermal part of only 515km. As an additional benefit, we can now put one jojo before and one after the thermal part. Offcourse,thistypeoftaskisnoteligibleforFAIbadgesandrecords.Nevertheless,forpurecross countryfun,andOLCandCharronkilometers, it is perfect. The free flight can make it even easier Its rather difficult to know exactly how high the cloudbase at the power plants will be. A free flight makes it much easier to optimize the performance. However, Charron.line only has 5 legs for free flights. And the bonus of 20% for declared tasks is hard to beat. Also, a free flight with more than 3 turnpoints is ineligible for FAI badges. Alternative routes for different weather conditions I believe that the standard 1000km is the best for flying long distances for many reasons: airspace, weather conditions, lining up of power plants, ... . However, many alternatives can be conceived for different weather situations. Below are a few from my database. The most important variations are: Startpoint and/or finishpoint close to Venlo, and then over Weisweiler to the South, or over Frimmersdord/Neurath to the East. Startpoint near Langenfeld. Flying into Belgium, and much further, into France. Alternative turnpoints in the East (Nrnberg, Leipzig, Magdeburg, Berlin, Hamburg, Prague) Triangle around Kln or Dsseldorf) North-South jojo (parallel to Luxemburg/Hahn/Frankfurt)
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Friday 25/05 comes around. The cold front has passed towards the South-West. The air mass has lost a lot of its freshness. It will be a very blue day. Forecasted PFD is above 500km in the whole task area. Iputintheweatherforecastinthemodel.Oneunforeseenproblemarises:thewindspeedis really high. Up to 45kph from the East in the morning. This has several consequences for the jojo: The standard startpoint in Flanders is unusable. Against this wind, the max glide ratio for the Ventus2cxt is ca 31. With a start altitude of 1300m and 525m arrival altitude at Weisweiler, I can only glide for about 24km. I would need to shift my startpoint to the border of Belgium and Germany. The distance between Weisweiler and Bergheim is 30km. With a minimum arrival altitude of 510m and a glide ratio of 31, I need to reach 1475m in Weisweiler to bridge this distance. Early in the morning, this is not possible. In the evening this is less of a problem. The finishpoint can be set much further to the West (at least 60km from Weisweiler). The limitation here would be the fuel constraints to get back to Keiheuvel.
So the list of dealbreakers gets a bit bigger: wind speed should be below 25-30kph (or a very high cloudbase early on). On2nd of June, I was fully prepared for the 1000k. A nice, but narrow band of good weather from the Netherlands to the Czech Republic was forecasted. Using the power plants would not be possible early in the morning due to low level clouds. Following the topmeteo weather forecast, I chose for Malden in the Netherlands as the perfect start position. This turned out to be a very good choice, and the start went exactly according to plan. I badly wanted to reach the Czech Republic (something not done before from Belgium), and opted for a quasi out-and-return (broken leg with line-up point). I thus chose for not doing a power plant jojo in the evening, but just a single run on Bergheim/Neurath and Weisweiler, with a finishpoint just in Belgium. The forecast said it was rather impossible to complete the task. Unfortunately, it was correct. The climb rates where too meager (1,1m/s over the task), to reach the power plants. After 901,3km of the task, and 45km before Bergheim/Neurath, I had to use the engine. After using the engine, I wanted to test the power plants. It was 8 oclock local time. Full overcast with cirrus clouds, almost dead air. Two clouds were overhead the power plants at an estimated altitude of 1600-1700m. I climbed with ca 0,5-1m/s in Bergheim, but it wasnt too exciting. Without wasting time, I flew to Neurath (5,5km to the north), also with a very nice cloud above. Upon entering, the vario maxed out. I briefly had 5,7m/sontheintegratorat20:22. Just incredible. I didnt fly to Weisweiler anymore, but there was still a cloud overhead. I am certain the standard 1000km (with a startpoint over Malden, and a turnpoint in East Germany, ca 60km West of my selected turnpoint) would have been possible. I would have reached Bergheim/Neurath at 18:05, which would have given sufficient time for at least one jojo (4 legs, 1003km, finish at 19:50), and potentially another one (6 legs, 1141km, finish at 21:05). Yet another lesson: dont be too greedy. On the 5th of June, another reasonable day was announced. A lot of moisture in all layers of the atmosphere would be the difficulty. The route to startpoint 2 would potentially be blocked in the morning. The alternative start point near Venlo would be the best solution. Many overdevelopments,
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cumulus congestus, altocumulus and cirrus clouds were forecasted from early on in the day. And it would be difficult to get into high terrain early on. Especially into Sauerland. Analyzing the topmeteo and toptherm forecasts, I decided for a quasi triangle around Frankfurt and Kln. From Venlo parallel to the Belgian and Luxemburg border, to Saarlouis. Then via the south of Frankfurt, turning east of Schweinfurt. Then via the south Rhn into the Sauerland to line up to the corridor between Kln and Dsseldorf to the power plants. Then a jojo to complete the 1000km. The weather was difficult in some parts, with large spread outs, and not too exiting climb rates. Everything went rather well, up until flying into the corridor towards the power plants. Interestingly Wilfried Grosskinsky (Nimbus 4M, From Dahlemer-Binz, 1067km) and Robin Ermen (Ventus 2cxm, From Wershofen Eifel, 828km) and me (Ventus 2cxt, from Keiheuvel, 913km) all flew very similar tasks, without prior knowledge of each others intentions. It is especially astounding how close Robin Ermen and me have flown from eachother the entire day. It is because of his flight, I could analyze that I have lost 42minutes in the corridor by my own mistake, just before reaching the power plants. This would have been more than sufficient to complete the declared 1014km task. In the end I managed to reach Frimmersdorf, which triggered a thermal of ca 1m/s to 1500m MSL at 20:26.Weisweilergave2,7m/sto1500mat20:47.I reached the next turnpoint at 20:58, with 146km left to complete the task. This would have taken around 1,5 hours. With Sunset+30min at 22:20, it would probably not have been possible to complete it. A landing at Theux would have been the only option. I decided to cancel the task, and safely fly back to Keiheuvel. Looking back, the task was probably close to perfect for this day (all three flights where in the top of the daily OLC ranking), which shows how good our meteo-forecasting tools have become. You just have to look beyond the PFD.
Flight tracks of W.Grosskinsky (Blue), R.Ermen (Green) and T.Schmelzer (Red) on 05/06/2012
Hopefully the last lessons: Dont fly too conservative in the corridor between Kln and Dsseldorf back to the power plants. Dormagen is a very good bet for finding the final thermal to reach them. Opening the airbrakes while running the engine, will lead to a sudden increase in measured altitude by ca 30-40 meters, probably caused by turbulences on the statics. Dont fly too close under TMA Lige.
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Pure Gliders
For maneuvering towards the start line and coming back after the finish, an engine comes in very handy. For pure gliders, things are less easy. I summarized the aerotow details from airports, close to the standard startpoint. It is manageable, especially from Verviers-Theux. Theux is also the perfect landing spot for pure gliders. Aachen-Merzbrck would be good as well, but sunset is 20minutes earlier there. For alternative startpoints (e.g. Viersen or Langenfeld), many airfields are located in those areas, and it should be easier for pure gliders.
Kaneenpurezweverdeze1000vliegen?
Zutendaal Eerst 34km sleep Dan 600m extra stijgen ca 35min, 120euro Terug thuisgeraken?
JA!
610m 760m
Verviers-Theux 1000m sleep 18km ca 15min, 50euro
LIEGE GND
Tijl Schmelzer
In conclusion, I believe that, at least in theory, it would be possible to fly the standard 1000km with a Std.Libelle or a Std.Cirrus. The weather to achieve this is extremely rare. In praxis, it thus will be very difficult to complete this challenge. With 6 legs, it becomes quite a bit easier. For more modern club class gliders like the LS4, the standard 1000km is doable. And for modern standard class gliders, I think it should be possible at least once or twice a year.
The maximum distance for the 18m class and Open class
For a Ventus2cxt or ASG29E, the standard 1000km should be relatively easy to achieve. And it is far from the maximum of what is feasible. The polar of a Ventus2cx at 54.4kg/m2 is plugged into the model. First climb at Weisweiler at 9:11. First real thermal of the day around 9:55 (close to Langenfeld), and the average climb rate in the thermal part of the flight is 2.1m/s. Last thermal of the day is around 19:40. The last climb at Weisweiler estimated at 21:44. This would lead to an average speed of 105,1kph over 13h20min, and a bit over 1400km. This seems high, but think like it this way: in a superb thermal day, thermal flights of ca 1050km with a 18meter glider have already been done in and close to the task area with an average speed above 110kph (in thus less than 10 hours) (for example Bernd Goretzki,18/07/2010in a Ventus 2cxm: 1046km at 112,6kph in 9h18m). Adding ca 100km in the morning (in ca 1 hour), and another 250km in the evening (in ca 2,5 hours) with the Kraftwerk-jojo is, at least in theory, possible. FortheoldOpenclass(Nimbus4andASW22BLE), the number crunching leads to distances slightly over 1500km, with a turnpoint on the Polish border.ForthenewOpenclass(Quintus,EB29,Etaand especially the Concordia if the calculated polar of Gerhard Waibel proves to be true), the maximum theoretical distances are quite a bit over 1500km. The question does become: are a first climb at Weisweiler to ca 1300m around 9:10, and a last climb there to ca 1500m around 21:45 possible?
Tijl Schmelzer
The flight of Wilfried Grosskinsky on 8 June 2006 gives possibly the answer. On that day, he flew 1155km at 93.8kph. In the morning, he didnt use the power plant route, but started straight from Dahlemer Binz toward the East. At 9:24, he caught his first thermal of 1,5m/s up till 1830m. Onavery good day, Weisweiler should be able to give a climb up till 1300m 15min before that. In the evening, he did do a kind of power plant jojo, and had a last climb of 2,2m/s up till 1860m at 21:18 in Bergheim. I think, on the best days Weisweiler should be able to trigger a climb up till 1300m at a reasonable climb rate 25minutes later. However, this will have to be proven by trial.
Tijl Schmelzer
Another flight of Wilfried Grosskinsky on 16 July 2009 is also interesting. On that day, he flew 1088km at a speed of 110.75kph. In this flight, he did not use any of the power plants. The meteorological values extracted from the IGC file of this flight, match quite well with the values necessary for cracking the 1500km, and also the route is close to the perfect route (apart from the early turning point in the east, and the track in the south of the Sauerland, instead of the north). For that day, I have no information on the weather on the power plant. Nevertheless, I am sure that the weather conditions very close to the one needed for the 1500km exist, but they are extremely rare. And rarity of the right weather conditions is off course not the only difficulty. The pilot will not be allowed to make a single mistake during the whole flight. Something quite hard to achieve over more than 13 hours of concentrated gliding. The proof will lie in the pursuit.
Tijl Schmelzer