Group 6: by - Garvit Agarwal Gyan Prakash Karan Gupta Ravikumar Soni Sahil Singla
Group 6: by - Garvit Agarwal Gyan Prakash Karan Gupta Ravikumar Soni Sahil Singla
By
Group 6
Garvit Agarwal Gyan Prakash Karan Gupta Ravikumar Soni Sahil Singla
A kind of insurance against credit risk. Privately negotiated bilateral contract . Reference Obligation, Notional, Premium (Spread), Maturity specified in contract. Buyer of protection makes periodic payments to seller of protection . Generally, seller of protection pays compensation to buyer if a credit event occurs and contract is terminated.
Credit event
Credit event results in payment from protection seller to buyer and termination of contract Most common types of credit events are the following
Bankruptcy Reference entitys insolvency or inability to repay its debt Failure to Pay Occurs when reference entity, after a certain grace period, fails to make payment of principal or interest Restructuring Refers to a change in the terms of debt obligations that are adverse to creditors
If credit event does not occur prior to maturity of contract(typically, 2/5/7/10 years for corporate), protection seller does not make a payment to buyer
Example
CDS Settlement
Settlement
Cash
Settlement
Fixed
value Settlement
Physical Settlement
Protection buyer sells acceptable obligation to protection seller for par. Buyer of protection can choose, within certain limits, what obligation to deliver. Allows buyer to deliver the obligation that is cheapest to deliver.
Cash Settlement
Dealer poll conducted to establish value of reference obligation (for example, x percent of par). Protection seller pays buyer 100 x percent of Notional value. The protection buyer in a 5,000,000 USD CDS, upon the reference entitys filing for bankruptcy protection, would notify the protection seller. A dealer poll would then be conducted and if, for instance, the value of the reference obligation were estimated to be 20% of par, the seller would pay the buyer 4,000,000 USD.
A fixed recovery level is decided upon in advance at the time of contract. If on a 5mn USD CDS, the fixed recovery level is 20% then in case of a credit event buyer will receive 4mn USD from the CDS seller.
Types of CDS
Valuation Models
Structural Models
Reduced form Models Hybrid Models
Structural Models
Mertons model:
The
source of credit risk is the uncertainty concerning the market value of firm, and the valuing of risky debt Market value of firm compared with Face value of debt Built on insights from option pricing model by Black-Scholes Equity Holder Bond Holder
If At>F If At<F Net Position At-F 0 Max(0,At-f) F At Min(F,At)
A=B+S
A=Market Value of firms asset S=Market value of equity B=Market value of debt F=Face value of debt (on maturity)
Defaultable bond is equivalent to holding a risk free bond along with a short put position on the assets of the firm.
Limitations:
Assumption
that default occur on maturity of debt Market value of firm is difficult to estimate
Subsequent models, Black and Cox, allowed default to occur at any time; Surprise events force a firm to file for bankruptcy;
Best suited for highly liquid assets and may not be as accurate in case of low market liquidity; The default event is stochastic with the probability of default linked to variation in the level of interest rate;
A low interest rate environment in US resulted in a boom in real estate; ABCP market allowed lenders to package mortgages and sell them through SIVs. The lowered lending criteria and easy offer term increased subprime loans; Borrowers defaulted-ABCP holders also defaulted-ABCP demand dried up-Home prices also declined-More ABCP were in supply reducing their value;
Spillover effect on corporate market as corporate were unable to borrow money; Bankruptcy and recessionary pressure on global economy; CDS were used to insure these ABCP; AIG defaulted on their payment; CDS market came to standstill with little trading occurring
Future of CDS
Taking the market to an exchange based environment and setting up a central clearinghouse as the central counterparty; Standardize of the CDS contracts to avoid any subsequent legal issues and to add transparency to the market; If the instrument is moved to exchange liquidity is expected to increase and market may see boom period;
CDS in India
RBI came up with its guidelines that allowed CDS usage on 25th March 2011. As per the guidelines, foreign institutional investors (FIIs), banks, insurers, NBFCs, listed companies, housing finance companies, provident funds and primary dealers can buy credit protection under the scheme.
Participants in a CDS market have been classified as Users and Market Makers. Users can only buy protection but Market Makers can buy and sell protection. The Draft Guidelines list a number of entities that will be allowed to act as Users and Market Makers. FIIs can act as Users.
NBFCs and primary dealers with a net owned fund of Rs 500 crore will be permitted to act as market makers.
Naked CDS is not permitted. CDS will be allowed only on corporate bonds (excludes loans, CPs). Users cannot enter into an offsetting contract and can sell the underlying bond only with permission of Protection Seller. Restructuring does not qualify as a Credit Event. Creates limits on credit exposures for Users and Market Makers. Mandatory trade reporting within thirty minutes.