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15 HypothesisTesting

This document provides an overview of hypothesis testing. It defines key concepts like the null hypothesis, type I and type II errors, and how statistics are used to test the null hypothesis. It explains that a hypothesis is tested by comparing observed results to the null hypothesis and either accepting or rejecting the null. It also outlines the potential outcomes of hypothesis testing and how to guard against type I errors by setting the significance level.

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Aravind Kumar
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© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
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37 views

15 HypothesisTesting

This document provides an overview of hypothesis testing. It defines key concepts like the null hypothesis, type I and type II errors, and how statistics are used to test the null hypothesis. It explains that a hypothesis is tested by comparing observed results to the null hypothesis and either accepting or rejecting the null. It also outlines the potential outcomes of hypothesis testing and how to guard against type I errors by setting the significance level.

Uploaded by

Aravind Kumar
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
Available Formats
Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Hypothesis Testing

Outline
The Null Hypothesis
Type I and Type II Error Using Statistics to test the Null Hypothesis The Logic of Data Analysis

Research Questions and Hypotheses


Research question: Non-directional:
No stated expectation about outcome

Example:
Do men and women differ in terms of conversational memory?

Hypothesis: Statement of expected relationship


Directionality of relationship

Example:
Women will have greater conversational memory than men

Grounding Hypotheses in Theory


Hypotheses have an underlying rationale: Logical reasoning behind the direction of the hypotheses (theoretical rationale explanation) Why do we expect women to have better conversational memory?
Theoretical rationale based on: 1. Past research 2. Existing theory 3. Logical reasoning

The Null Hypothesis


Null Hypothesis - the absence of a relationship E..g., There is no difference between mens and womens with regards to conversational memories
Compare observed results to Null Hypothesis How different are the results from the null hypothesis? We do not propose a null hypothesis as research

hypothesis - need very large sample size / power


Used as point of contrast for testing

Hypotheses testing
When we test observed results against null:
We can make two decisions:
1. Accept the null
No significant relationship Observed results similar to the Null Hypothesis

2. Reject the null


Significant relationship Observed results different from the Null Hypothesis

Whichever decision, we risk making an error

Type I and Type II Error


1. Type I Error
Reality: No relationship Decision: Reject the null Believe your research hypothesis have received support when in fact you should have disconfirmed it Analogy: Find an innocent man guilty of a crime

2. Type II Error
Reality: Relationship Decision: Accept the null Believe your research hypothesis has not received support when in fact you should have rejected the null. Analogy: Find a guilty man innocent of a crime

Potential outcomes of testing


Decision
Accept Null R E A L I Relationship No Relationship Reject Null

1
3

2
4

T
Y

Potential outcomes of testing


Decision
Accept Null R E A L I Relationship No Relationship Reject Null

Correct decision

2
4

T
Y

Potential outcomes of testing


Decision
Accept Null R E A L I Relationship No Relationship Reject Null

1
3

2
Correct decision

T
Y

Potential outcomes of testing


Decision
Accept Null R E A L I Relationship No Relationship Reject Null

1
3

Type I Error

T
Y

Potential outcomes of testing


Decision
Accept Null R E A L I Relationship No Relationship Reject Null

1
Type II Error

2
4

T
Y

Potential outcomes of testing


Decision
Accept Null R E A L I Relationship No Relationship Reject Null

Correct decision

Type I Error

T
Y

Type II Error

Correct decision

Function of Statistical Tests


Statistical tests determine:
Accept or Reject the Null Hypothesis

Based on probability of making a Type I error


Observed results compared to the results expected by

the Null Hypotheses What is the probability of getting observed results if Null Hypothesis were true?
If results would occur less than 5% of the time by simple

chance then we reject the Null Hypothesis

Start by setting level of risk of making a Type I Error


How dangerous is it to make a Type I Error:
What risk is acceptable?: 5%? 1%? .1%? Smaller percentages are more conservative in guarding

against a Type I Error

Level of acceptable risk is called Significance level :


Usually the cutoff - <.05

Conventional Significance Levels


.05 level (5% chance of Type I Error)
.01 level (1% chance of Type I Error) .001 level (.1% chance of Type I Error) Rejecting the Null at the .05 level means:
Taking a 5% risk of making a Type I Error

Steps in Hypothesis Testing


1. State research hypothesis
2. State null hypothesis 3.Set significance level (e.g., .05 level)

4. Observe results
5. Statistics calculate probability of results if null

hypothesis were true

6. If probability of observed results is less than significance

level, then reject the null

Guarding against Type I Error


Significance level regulates Type I Error
Conservative standards reduce Type I Error:
.01 instead of .05, especially with large sample

Reducing the probability of Type I Error:


Increases the probability of Type II Error

Sample size regulates Type II Error


The larger the sample, the lower the probability of Type II

Error occurring in conservative testing

Statistical Power
The power to detect significant relationships
The larger the sample size, the more power The larger the sample size, the lower the probability of Type

II Error
Power = 1 probability of Type II Error

Statistical Analysis
Statistical analysis:
Examines observed data Calculates the probability that the results could occur by

chance (I.e., if Null was true)


Choice of statistical test depends on:
Level of measurement of the variables in question:
Nominal, Ordinal, Interval or Ratio

Logic of data analysis


Univariate analysis
One variable at a time (descriptive)

Bivariate analysis
Two variables at a time (testing relationships)

Multivariate analysis
More than two variables at a time (testing relationships and

controlling for other variables)

Variables
Dependent variable:
What we are trying to predict E.g., Candidate preference

Independent variables:
What we are using as predictors E.g., Gender, Party affiliation

Testing hypothesis for two nominal variables


Variables
Gender Passing is not related to gender Pass/Fail Chi-square

Null hypothesis

Procedure

Testing hypothesis for one nominal and one ratio variable


Variables
Gender Score is not related to gender Test score T-test

Null hypothesis

Procedure

Testing hypothesis for one nominal and one ratio variable


Variable Year in school
Score is not related to year in school Test score

Null hypothesis

Procedure

ANOVA

Can be used when nominal variable has more than two categories and can include more than one independent variable

Testing hypothesis for two ratio variables


Variable
Hours spent studying Score is not related to hours spent studying Correlation

Null hypothesis

Procedure

Test score

Testing hypothesis for more than two ratio variables


Variable Null hypothesis Procedure

Hours spent studying Score is positively related to hours Classes missed spent studying and negatively related Multiple regression

to classes missed
Test score

Commonality across all statistical analysis procedures


Set the significance level:
E.g., .05 level
Means that we are willing to conclude that there is a

relationship if:
Chance of Type I error is less than 5%

Statistical tests tell us whether:


The observed relationship has less than a 5% chance of

occurring by chance

Summary of Statistical Procedures


Variables Nominal IV, Nominal DV
Nominal IV, Ratio DV Multiple Nominal IVs, Ratio DV

Procedure Chi-square
T-test ANOVA

Ratio IV, Ratio DV


Multiple Nominal IVs, Ratio DV with ratio covariates Multiple ratio

Pearsons R
ANCOVA Multiple Regression

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