1 a ) Dr a w a n a n n o t a t e d d i a g r a m

f e a t u r i n g t h e Gr e e n h o u s e e f f e c t [ 5 ]
Qn requirements:
Diagram [2] with detailed explanation of causes of Greenhouse effect [3]
Features to be included:
Greenhouse gases - water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous
oxide, CFCs
Radiation (long-wave, short-wave, etc)


Greenhouse effect:
refers to the increasing temperature of the lower atmosphere
(troposphere) as a result of the heat trapping effect of gases such
as carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and CFCs.
Such gases allow in-coming short-wave radiation to pass through
but block outgoing long-wave radiation.
An entirely natural process, essential for life on earth
However, human activity is increasing the concentration of these
gases further increasing tropospheric temperatures causing
enhanced greenhouse effect.


1 b ) Ou t l i n e t h e l i k e l y i mp a c t s o f t h e
Gr e e n h o u s e e f f e c t . [ 8 ]
Describe and explain the consequences and effects of
global warming
Give at least 4
1 ) Cl i ma t i c & Hy d r o l o g i c a l I mp a c t s
Increase in temperatures precipitation & moisture affected
(reduced or irregular rainfalls)
Agriculture world-wide affected especially for poorer tropical &
subtropical countries dried up cereal fields cereal production
reduced (e.g. decline in USAs grain belt)
Shrinking of wetlands (rivers & waterfalls may dry up)
Droughts (SEA, Brazil 1997-8 after ENSO event)
Underground aquifers will not be recharged by rainfall irrigation &
hydroelectric power schemes hindered imbalance between demand
& supply of water engineering plans developed to cope with
shortage
Warmer temperatures changes in position of Polar jet
streams
Southern shift of jet stream cyclonic conditions move into
warmer waters intensify into powerful storms
Storms are likely to be stronger if enhanced greenhouse effect
continues create problems for weather forecasters due to
less time to predict the storms course delayed emergency
response

2 ) I n l a n d We a t h e r
More extreme climates in interior locations of continents (e.g.
Great Plains of North America)
Drier summers with colder winters
Areas with maritime climates (e.g. British Isles) will experience
higher temperatures wetter winters & long, dry summers
3 ) Di s t r i b u t i o n o f f l o r a a n d f a u n a
As a result of changes in global temperatures, distribution of F&F
will shift to different latitudes
Places vulnerable to change may become extinct areas which once
supported lush vegetation may suffer from desertification
However, many new areas may develop new capacity to grow different
crops in areas which once did not support their growth (e.g. auberines
or melons in Britian)
4 ) Di s e a s e s
Shifts in climatic belts possible spread of diseases into non-
tropical areas
Range of tropical diseases (malaria, cholera) increase as
temperatures rise
Rise in death rates in some parts of the world, especially
where medical facilities are poor increased pressure on
medical services
Kenya after 1997 ENSO event, parts of Kenya received over
1000mm of rainfall during 6 months which is normally considered to be
the dry season. Receding flood waters created ideal mosquito
spawning pools More than 500 people died of malaria
5 ) Me l t i n g p o l a r i c e c a p s & r i s i n g s e a
l e v e l s
Disappearance of glaciers in the Alps & reduction in snow
cover
skiing industry affected in British isles
Increase in snow melt:
increase in peak discharge of rivers increase occurrence of
floods (Bangladesh)
Rise in sea levels flooded low-lying areas (Maldives, Egypt,
Netherlands), possible loss of thousands of hectares of farmland in
East Anglia in the British Isles
Ecosystems affected due to loss in flora & fauna species loss in
biological diversity
1 c ) Di s c u s s t h e e x t e n t t o wh i c h
h u ma n a c t i v i t i e s a r e t h o u g h t t o
a f f e c t t e mp e r a t u r e a t b o t h t h e l o c a l
a n d g l o b a l s c a l e [ 1 6 ]
to what extent qn.
1. How human activities affect local & global
temperatures [8]
2. Other factors - [8] (e.g. El Nino, La Nina)
Human Ac t i v i t i es - LOCAL
(i) Concentration of human activities in urban areas result in an
urban microclimate (Urban Heat Island effect)
Normal building materials non-reflective & absorb heat during the day
Higher thermal capacity (dark colored roofs, concrete or brick walls,
tarmac roads) good capability of storing heat during the day &
releasing it at night
Low albedo incoming insolation absorbed than reflected
Generation of dust & pollution (Car fumes, factories & power stations)
act as heat absorbing units or condensation nuclei for clouds to form
Use of air conditioning, fridges, aerosols release of CFCs

Human Ac t i v i t i es - GLOBAL
Generation of greenhouse gases (world-wide) which
accelerates global warming
(i) Deforestation (reduction of carbon sink)
o loss of vegetation on a large scale reduces EVPT, decreases
precipitation
o Increase in amount of carbon dioxide due to absence of
photosynthesis & decomposition of cleared vegetation more heat
being stored higher global temperatures
(ii) Agriculture & Increase in cattle production (land-use changes)
o Changing agricultural practices use of nitrate fertilisers release
of NO2
o Overgrazing expose darker colored soils & loss of vegetation with
waxy leaves decrease in surface albedo increase in absorption
of incoming solar radiation
o Increase in output of methane
(iii) Urbanisation
o combustion of fossil fuels in power stations & transport (increase in
CO2, NO2)
o Mining activities & oil exploration release of methane



Ot her Fac t or s - LOCAL
1. Presence of Vegetation
Thick forest canopies act as blanket to prevent much of the
incoming radiation (insolation) from reaching forest floor. Much
insolation is absorbed by leaf cover diffused insolation
Relatively waxy leaves in tropical rainforest high albedo,
hence reflect much insolation cooler temperatures during the
day
Leaf cover prevent much terrestrial radiation from occurring
keep heat within the under-canopy so during the night, net out-
going energy is greater than net incoming energy in
surrounding areas of rainforests warmer temperatures in
rainforest at night
Ot her Fac t or s GLOBAL
Variations in Solar Energy Sunspot Activity
Dark regions which form on the surface of the sun: peaks every 11
years changes the amount of energy emitted by the sun to the
earth
Occurrences of sunspots reduces total insolation received by the
earth lower temperatures globally
Changes in Earths Geometry & the Milankovitch
Cycles
Changes in Eccentricity earths orbit around the sun changes from
elliptical to near circular every 100,000 years
Obliquity of the Plane of the Ecliptic variation in the tilt of the
earth, every 40,000years, greater tilt = greater contrast between
summer and winter temperatures in middle & high latitudes
Precession of Equinoxes axis of the earth moves around slowly
every 20,000years, affecting the distance of the equator from the
sun on midsummers day.
Other factors: El Nino, La Nina
2 A) SCI ENTI STS ARE CONCERNED THAT HI GHER
GREENHOUSE GAS CONCENTRATI ONS ARE
' ENHANCI NG' THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT AND
THUS LEADI NG TO GLOBAL CLI MATE CHANGE.
WHAT EVI DENCE SUGGESTS A DI SCERNI BLE
HUMAN I NFLUENCE ON GLOBAL CLI MATE AND TO
WHAT EXTENT HAS THE CHANGE I MPACTED THE
EARTH?[ 16]
16m : 4 points
Approach:
1. Evidence of human influence
2. Change in climate
Impacted
the earth
1. I NDUSTRI ALI SATI ON
Industrialisation is increasing at an rapid rate today
Release of carbon dioxide by burning fossil fuels resulted
in the increasing release of CO
2
pollution
Increases the atmospheric absorption and emission of
terrestrial infrared radiation (greenhouse effect), resulting in
warming of lower atmosphere and cooling of the
stratosphere.
Evidence: CO
2
emissions have risen from 320 CO
2
parts per
million to 390 CO
2
parts per million
Impact: Global potentially a major influence on climate
and biological activity
I NDUSTRI ALI SATI ON ( 2)
(i.e. In North America, species are almost uniformly moving
their ranges northward and up in elevation in search of
cooler temperatures.
Birds like the little egret, that was previously only seen in the
Continent, is now frequently spotted in southern England
and even the north and the midlands.
International examples include the pika, a small rodent
found in Yosemite national park in North America, that has
moved 1,700ft (500m) uphill over the last century.
Moths on Mount Kinabalu in Borneo have moved 220ft
(67m) uphill over the 40 years, despite the fact little else has
changed in the national park.)

2. URBANI SATI ON
Increased car ownership particulate emissions from diesel
engines, NO
x
, volatile organic compounds, Carbon
monoxide and various other hazardous air pollutants
including benzene.
Motor vehicles are calculated to generate about 20% of the
European Union's man-made CO
2
emissions, with passenger
cars contributing about 12%
Increase in dark surfaces increases surface albedo
Release of heat (thermal pollution) Warms the lower
atmosphere directly.
Changes surface albedo and evapotranspiration and causes
aerosols causes urban heat islands

The annual mean air temperature of a city with 1
million people or more can be 1.03.0 C warmer than
its surroundings. In the evening, the difference can be
as high as 12 C
Likelihood of longer, more intense heat waves
Australia- for the week ending 4 January 2014,
average maximum temperatures were 8C or more
above normal in southern inland Queensland. By 9
February Canberra had recorded 16 days above 35C
this summer, compared to the long-term average of 5.2
days.

DEFORESTATI ON
Forests store an enormous amount of organic carbon
which is released into the atmosphere as carbon
dioxide when forests are cleared by burning
As carbon dioxide accrues, it produces a layer in the
atmosphere that traps radiation from the sun. The
radiation converts to heat which causes global
warming, which is better known as the greenhouse
effect
Deforested areas land heats up faster and reaches a
higher temperature
Tropical deforestation is responsible for approximately
20% of world greenhouse gas emissions
Tropical deforestation releases 1.5 billion tons of
carbon each year into the atmosphere

AGRI CULTURE
Release of trace gases (e.g., nitrogen oxides, carbon
monoxide, or methane) that increase tropospheric
ozone by photochemical reactions
Large atmospheric heating occurs from tropospheric
ozone, which enhances both solar and greenhouse
heating of lower atmosphere.
Local to regional at present, but could become a
significant global climatic warming if large-scale fossil
fuel use leads to combustion products that significantly
increase tropospheric ozone levels; contact with ozone
also harms some plants and people.
Evidence:
At a global scale, the FAO has recently estimated that
livestock (including poultry) accounts for about 14.5 percent
of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions estimated as
100-year CO
2
equivalents
At a national level, livestock represents up to half of New
Zealand's greenhouse gas emissions.
Livestock sources (including enteric fermentation and
manure) account for about 3.1 percent of US anthropogenic
greenhouse gas emissions expressed as carbon dioxide
equivalents, according to US EPA figures compiled using
UNFCCC methodologies.

1. Los s of s ea i c e
Evidence:
The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have decreased in
mass. Data from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate
Experiment show Greenland lost 150 to 250 cubic
kilometers (36 to 60 cubic miles) of ice per year between
2002 and 2006, while Antarctica lost about 152 cubic
kilometers (36 cubic miles) of ice between 2002 and 2005.
Both the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice has declined
rapidly over the last several decades.
In 1988, ice that was at least 4 years old accounted for 26%
of the Arctic's sea ice. By 2013, ice that age was only 7% of
all Arctic sea ice
2. Ac c el er at ed s ea l ev el r i s e
Evidence:
Global sea level rose about 17 centimeters (6.7 inches)
in the last century. The rate in the last decade,
however, is nearly double that of the last century.
Republic of Maldives: Vulnerable to sea level rise


2b) What i ni t i at i v es ar e bei ng
i mpl ement ed t o hel p s ol v e t he pr obl em
of gl obal war mi ng ?[ 9]
Approach: 4 initiatives
KYOTO PROTOCOL
International environment treaty produced at the United Nations
Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED).
Treaty intends to stabilize greenhouse gases concentrations in
the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous
anthropogenic interference with the climate system.
Kyoto Protocol establishes legally binding commitments for the
reduction of 4 greenhouse gases (CO2, CH2, NO2, F6S) and 2
groups of gases (hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons)
General commitments for all member countries
KYOTO PROTOCOL ( 2)
Under Kyoto, industrialized nations agreed to reduce
their collective GHG by 5.2% compared to year 1990.
National limitations ranged from 8% reductions for the
EU and some others to 7% for the US, 6% for Japan &
0% for Russia.
Treaty permitted GHG emission increases of 8% for
Australia and 10% for Iceland.
ASI A- PACI FI C PARTNERSHI P ON
CLEAN DEVELOPMENT AND CLI MATE
Agreement among 7 Asian-Pacific nations: Australia, Canada, China,
India, Japan, South Korea, and USA.
These 7 countries are responsible for more than half of the world's
carbon emissions.
Official launch in 2006, Sydney, Australia
ASI A- PACI FI C PARTNERSHI P ON CL EAN
DEVEL OPMENT AND CL I MATE( 2 )
Foreign, Environment and Energy Ministers from partner
countries agreed to co-operate on the development and
transfer of technology which enables reduction of greenhouse
gas emissions that is consistent with and complementary to
the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and other
relevant international instruments, and is intended to
complement but not replace the Kyoto Protocol.
Unlike the Kyoto Protocol (currently unratified by the United
States), which imposes mandatory limits on greenhouse gas
emissions, the Partnership engages member countries to
accelerate the development and deployment of clean energy
technologies, with no mandatory enforcement mechanism.
I NTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON
CLI MATE CHANGE ( I PCC)
Scientific intergovernmental body tasked to evaluate the risk of
climate change caused by human activity
Panel established in 1988 by World Meteorological Organisation
(WMO) and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
Do not carry out research or monitor climate and its related
phenomena. Rather, it's role is to publish special reports on topics
relevant to the implementation of the UN Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC)
IPCC bases its assessment on peer reviewed and published
scientific literature, and is only open to member states of WMO and
UNEP
Reports widely cited in almost any debate related to climate change
EUROPEAN UNI ON EMI SSI ON TRADI NG
SYSTEM
Largest multi-national emissions trading scheme
Also a major pillar of EU Climate Policy
Covers >10000 installations in energy and industrial sectors which
are collectively responsible for close to half of EU's emissions of
CO2 and 40% of its total GHG emissions
Under EU ETS, large emitters of CO2 within EU must monitor and
annually report CO2 emissions
Every year, they are obligated to return an amount of emission
allowance to the government that is equivalent to the CO2
emissions in that year
QUESTI ON 3 A) DESCRI BE THE CAUSES OF THE
EL NI NO SOUTHERN OSCI LLATI ON AND THE
KI ND OF EFFECTS I T HAS ON GLOBAL CLI MATE
[ 16]
Caus es of ENSO
The warming of the Pacific as a result of the weakening of trade winds
that normally blow westward from South America toward Asia.
Easterly trade winds drag warm surface water from coast of Peru and
cause colder deep ocean water to come to the surface (upwelling).
Upwelling causes the thermocline to be much shallower in the Eastern
Pacific than in the western. Trade winds and equatorial upwelling
maintain warm sea surface temperatures at the western equatorial
Pacific and cold surface temperatures in the east.
When trade winds weaken, the equatorial upwelling decreases, the
thermocline gets deeper, the ocean surface along coast of South
America becomes warmer, causing trade winds to weaken even more
This in turn causes surface waters in eastern Pacific to become even
warmer


EL NI O - SOUTH AMERI CA
1. rainfall across the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean, including
several portions of the South American west coast.
2. Peru and Ecuador face very wet months (April-October) which causes
major flooding when the event is strong or extreme
3. Along the west coast of South America, El Nio reduces the upwelling
of cold, nutrient-rich water that sustains large fish populations, which
in turn sustain abundant sea birds, whose droppings support
the fertilizer industry. The reduction in upwelling leads to fish kills off
the shore of Peru.
4. Southern Brazil and northern Argentina also experience wetter than
normal conditions, but mainly during the spring and early summer.
Central Chile receives a mild winter with large rainfall, and the
Peruvian-Bolivian Altiplano is sometimes exposed to unusual winter
snowfall events. Drier and hotter weather occurs in parts of
the Amazon River Basin, Colombia, and Central America.
EL NI O NORTH AMERI CA
Winters, during the El Nio effect, are warmer and drier than average
in the Northwest, northern Midwest, and northern Mideast United
States, so those regions experience reduced snowfalls. Meanwhile,
significantly wetter winters are present in northwest Mexico and the
southwest United States, including central and southern California,
while both cooler and wetter than average winters in northeast Mexico
and the southeast United States (including the Tidewater region of
Virginia) occur during the El Nio phase of the oscillation
Wind magnitude is greater during El Nio years than during La
Nia years, due to the more frequent cold frontal incursions during El
Nio winters, with its effects can last from a few hours to six days.El
Nio is credited with suppressing hurricanes, and made the 2009
hurricane season the least active in 12 years.
EL NI O AFRI CA, ASI A &
AUSTRALI A
In Africa, East Africa including Kenya, Tanzania, and the White
Nile basin experiences, in the long rains from March to May, wetter-
than-normal conditions. Conditions are also drier than normal from
December to February in south-central Africa, mainly
in Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and Botswana. Direct effects of El
Nio resulting in drier conditions occur in parts of Southeast
Asia and Northern Australia, increasing bush fires, worsening haze,
and decreasing air quality dramatically. Drier-than-normal conditions
are also in general observed in Queensland, inland Victoria,
inland New South Wales, and eastern Tasmania from June to August.
As warm water spreads from the west Pacific and the Indian Ocean to
the east Pacific, it takes the rain with it, causing extensive drought in
the western Pacific and rainfall in the normally dry eastern Pacific.
Singapore experienced the driest February in 2014 since records
began in 1869, with only 6.3 mm of rain falling in the month and
temperatures hitting as high as 35 C on 26 February. The years 1968
and 2005 had the next driest Februaries, when 8.4 mm of rain fell
EL NI O - EUROPE AND OTHERS
El Nio's effects on Europe appear to be strongest in winter. Recent
evidence indicates that El Nio causes a colder, drier winter in
Northern Europe and a milder, wetter winter in Southern Europe. The
El Nio winter of 2009/10 was extremely cold in Northern Europe but
El Nio is not the only factor at play in European winter weather and
the weak El Nio winter of 2006/2007 was unusually mild in Europe,
and the Alps recorded very little snow coverage that season.
Many ENSO linkages exist in the high southern latitudes
around Antarctica.

Specifically, El Nio conditions result in high
pressure anomalies over the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas,
causing reduced sea ice and increased poleward heat fluxes in these
sectors, as well as the Ross Sea. The Weddell Sea, conversely, tends
to become colder with more sea ice during El Nio. The exact opposite
heating and atmospheric pressure anomalies occur during La
Nia. This pattern of variability is known as the Antarctic dipole mode,
although the Antarctic response to ENSO forcing is not ubiquitous.
LA NI A - NORTH AMERI CA
La Nia causes mostly the opposite effects of El Nio,
above-average precipitation across the northern
Midwest, the northern Rockies, Northern California,
and the Pacific Northwest's southern and eastern
regions. Meanwhile, precipitation in the southwestern
and southeastern states is below average. This also
allows for the development of many stronger-than-
average hurricanes in the Atlantic and less in the
Pacific.
The synoptic condition for the Tehuantepecer is associated
with high-pressure system forming in Sierra Madre of Mexico in
the wake of an advancing cold front, which causes winds to
accelerate through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec.
Tehuantepecers primarily occur during the cold season months
for the region in the wake of cold fronts, between October and
February, with a summer maximum in July caused by the
westward extension of the Azores-Bermuda high pressure
system. Wind magnitude is weaker during La Nia years than El
Nio years, due to the less frequent cold frontal incursions
during La Nia winters, with its effects can last from a few hours
to six days. La Nias occurred in 1904, 1908, 1910, 1916, 1924,
1928, 1938, 1950, 1955, 1964, 1970, 1973, 1975, 1983,1988,
1995, 1998, 2007, 2010, and 2011.
In Canada, La Nia will, in general, cause a cooler, snowier
winter, such as the near-record-breaking amounts of snow
recorded in the La Nia winter of 2007/2008 in Eastern Canada.

LA NI A - SOUTH AMERI CA
During a time of La Nia, drought plagues the coastal
regions of Peru and Chile. From December to
February, northern Brazil is wetter than normal. La
Nia causes higher than normal rainfall in the central
Andes, which in turn causes catastrophic flooding on
the Llanos de Mojos of Beni Department, Bolivia. Such
flooding is documented from 1853, 1865, 1872, 1873,
1886, 1895, 1896, 1907, 1921, 1928, 1929, and 1931.
LA NI A AFRI CA AND ASI A
Africa: La Nia results in wetter-than-normal conditions
in Southern Africa from December to February, and
drier-than-normal conditions over equatorial East Africa
over the same period.
Asia: During La Nia years, the formation of tropical
cyclones, along with the subtropical ridge position,
shifts westward across the western Pacific ocean,
which increases the landfall threat to China. In March
2008, La Nia caused a drop in sea surface
temperatures over Southeast Asia by 2 C. It also
caused heavy rains over Malaysia, the Philippines,
and Indonesia.