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Discrete Distributions

The document discusses the Binomial and Poisson distributions. It provides the key characteristics and formulas for each. For the Binomial, it defines the variables n, p, x and provides the formula to calculate probabilities. For the Poisson, it states it models rare, independent events and provides the formula using the mean λ. Examples are given for calculating probabilities using both distributions.

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anindya_kundu
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104 views

Discrete Distributions

The document discusses the Binomial and Poisson distributions. It provides the key characteristics and formulas for each. For the Binomial, it defines the variables n, p, x and provides the formula to calculate probabilities. For the Poisson, it states it models rare, independent events and provides the formula using the mean λ. Examples are given for calculating probabilities using both distributions.

Uploaded by

anindya_kundu
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
Available Formats
Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Prof GRC Nair


R  
To learn the characteristics and compute
probabilities using the Binomial distribution.
‡ To learn the characteristics and compute
probabilities using the Poisson distribution.
inomial Distribution

     


    

  
S!  rimnt as two mutually lusiv
vnts, su as a suss or failur
S !  trials ar statistially indndnt

S!  robability of suss stays t  sam for


a trial
Sid Numbr of Erimnts in idntial
onditions
S!  data olltd ar t  rsults of ounts

    
 

n be the number of trials


j be the number of observed successes
be the probability of success on each
trial
 (= 1-p) be the probability of failure on
each trial
 The formula for the binomial
probability distribution is:

6j
 jg j  ô j

 If p is 0.5,the curve is symmetrical,


 if < 0.5,it is + ve ly skewed (to the
right).
 If > 0.5, it is - ve ly skewed.(to the left)
Æ 

 d     


         
       
 j   
     
   
 ¯or this p = 0.7
 Q = 1- 0.7 = 0.3
 n=4
 x=2

j 6j
 jg j  ô
 j dj  ! ""
Æ 

The Labor Department reports that 20%


of the work force is unemployed. ¯rom a
sample of 14 workers, calculate the
following probabilities:
 Exactly three are unemployed.

 At least three are unemployed.

 At least one is unemployed.


 The probability of exactly 3:

3 11
 3g 14  3 . 20 g 1 6 . 20 g
364 g . 0080 g . 0859 g
. 2501

 The probability of at least 3 is:


j  3gM14 ` 3 .20g 3 .80g11 ... `
14 14 .20g 14
.80g 0

M .250 .172 ... .000 M .551


 Or 1- P(0 or 1 or 2) =1-{0.449} =0.551
 Theprobability of at least one
being unemployed.
 j  1g 16  0g
0 14
16140 .20g 16 .20g
16 .044 .956

 


 The   is found by:


M 
 The   is found by:
2
  ô
 p=.2 and =14.

 §ence, the   is:


× =  = 14(.2) = 2.8.
The   is:
2
  ô
= (14)(.2)(.8) =2.24.
Æ  §

 Incidence of occupational disease in a


factory is on an average 20%. What is the
probability that out of 6 workers taken at
random, 4 or more suffer from it ?
  # $ %#
Poisson Distribution

 Discrete distribution that is constructed


from the probability of occurrence of rare
events over an interval: accidents, break
downs etc
 Poisson experiment does not have a given
number of trials (n) as binomial experiment
does. Number of trials are very large.
 Poisson distribution often is used to
describe the number of random arrivals
per some time interval
 Models used in queuing theory are
based on the assumption that Poisson
distribution
‡  
  

ÔÆ 
   
 

Ô     
  
 
       
     
 
ÔÆj 
  


  

 
j  
The   distribution can be described
mathematically using the formula:

j 6×
× 
 jg
jM
where × is the mean number of
successes in a particular interval of time,
µm is the constant 2.71828, and  is the
number of successes.
Æ 

 Number of misprints per page of a book is


found to be 2 on an average. What is the
probability of having no misprints at all in a
page?
 If a book contains 1000 pages , in how
many pages would you expect more than 2
misprints? ( given e -2 = 0.1353)
 Ans e P x 2 $ ! % # &  
Æ 

 Bank customers arrive randomly on


week days afternoon at an average of
3.2 customers every 4 minutes . What
is the probability of having more than
seven customers in a 4 minute interval
on a week day afternoon?
 ans 0.01683
Poisson Approximation to Binomial

 Binomial being cumbersome to


calculate, it can be approximated to
Poisson if p < 0.05 and n > 20 with
reasonable accuracy.
 Take × = np
Æ 

 2% of electric bulbs manufactured by a


certain company are defective. ¯ind the
probability that in a sample of 200 bulbs,
the number of defectives are
 i. less than 2 bulb. ii. More than 3 bulbs
 ans.By Binomial 0.08938, 0.5685
 By Poisson 0.0916, 0.5669
 



 Page 248,256, Levin

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