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Pharma Sales Forecasting

The document discusses various sales forecasting methods including jury of executive opinion, Delphi method, sales force estimation method, and time series analysis method. It provides details on each method such as: 1) The jury of executive opinion method involves managers assembling to discuss sales forecasts based on their experience and knowledge. 2) The Delphi method gathers expert opinions through multiple rounds of anonymous questionnaires and feedback to arrive at a consensus forecast. 3) The sales force estimation method analyzes the opinions of salespeople as a group to predict future sales. 4) Time series analysis uses statistical analysis of historical sales data to identify trends, seasons, and irregular patterns to forecast future sales. It can be difficult

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227 views17 pages

Pharma Sales Forecasting

The document discusses various sales forecasting methods including jury of executive opinion, Delphi method, sales force estimation method, and time series analysis method. It provides details on each method such as: 1) The jury of executive opinion method involves managers assembling to discuss sales forecasts based on their experience and knowledge. 2) The Delphi method gathers expert opinions through multiple rounds of anonymous questionnaires and feedback to arrive at a consensus forecast. 3) The sales force estimation method analyzes the opinions of salespeople as a group to predict future sales. 4) Time series analysis uses statistical analysis of historical sales data to identify trends, seasons, and irregular patterns to forecast future sales. It can be difficult

Uploaded by

RohitPatel
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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SALES FORECASTING

HARSHAL
KOTHARI

Sales forecasting is an important


assessment tool that helps to
Regularly take the pulse of your
company get tips on effective
sales forecasting with helps
form a professional speaker
author and business consultant
who has been a real estate
broker , professional insurance
salesperson and financial
planner.

VIDEO

Real-Time Demand Drives Forecasting.mp4

Popular Method of Sales


Forecasting
Jury of Executive opinion Method
Delphi Method
The sales force Estimation Method
Time series Analysis Method

Jury of Executive opinion


There are two steps in this method
High ranking executives estimate

probable

sales
An average estimate is calculated
In the jury of executive opinion method of sales
forecasting, appropriate managers within the
organization assemble to discuss their opinions
on what will happen to sales in the future.
This method combines managerial experience
with statistical knowledge.

Companies using the jury of executive


opinion method do so for one or more of
four
reason:

This is a quick and easy way to turn out a forecast.


This is a way to pool the experience and
judgement of well informed people.
This may be the only feasible approach if the
company is so young that it has not yet
accumulated the experience to use other
forecasting methods.
This method may be used when adequate sales
and market statistic are missing ,or when these
figure have not yet been put into the form required
for more sophisticated forecasting methods.

EXAMPLE:
Mainframe computer forecasting is done by

conducting a series of meetings between the


two mainframe analysts at a company, the
Service director, and a Research Operations
analyst. Typically, three or four meetings are
required in order to arrive at a forecast
consensus. In between meetings, the
forecasts are examined by colleagues, both
domestic and abroad, for feedback and
reaction.

Delphi Method
Several years ago researchers at the Rand corporation

developed a technique for predicting the future that is


called Delphi technique
Delphi method also gathers evaluates and summarizes

expert opinions as the basis for a forecast but the


procedure is more formal than that for the jury of executive
opinion method

Three Types of Participants


Decision Makers
Staff
Respondents

Steps in the Delphi method


Steps 1- Various Experts are asked to answer, independently

and in writing, a series of questions about the future of


sales or whatever other area is being forecasted.
STEP 2 A summary of all the answers is then prepared. No

expert knows, how any other expert answered the questions.

STEP 3 Copies of summary are given to the

individual experts with the request that they modify


their original answers if they think it necessary.
STEP 4 Another summary is made of these

modifications, and copies again are distributed to the


experts. This time, however, expert opinions that
deviate significantly from the norm must be justified
in writing.

STEP 5 A third summary is made of the opinions and


justifications, and copies are once again distributed
to the experts. Justification in writing for all answers
is now required.
STEP 6 The forecast is generated from all of the

opinions and justifications that arise from step 5.

Sales Force Estimation


Method
The Sales Force Method is a sales forecasting

technique that predicts future sales by


analyzing the opinions of sales people as a
group

A sales forecast is an estimate of sales in dollars or

physical unit in future period under a particular marketing


program and assume set of economic and other factor out
side the unit for which the forecast is made.

The Sales Force Method is a sales forecasting technique

that predicts future sales by


analyzing the opinions of sales people as
a group.
Salespeople continually interact with customers,
and from this interaction they usually
develop a knack for predicting
future sales.

me Series analysis Method


Not greatly different in principle from the simple projection of past
sales is time series analysis a statistical procedure for studying
historical sales data
This procedure involves isolating and measuring four chief types of
sales variations long term trends cyclical changes seasonal variations
and irregular fluctuations
One drawback of time series analysis is that it is difficult to call the
turns

Time Series analysis


involves
The time series analysis
method Predicts the future sales
by analyzing
The historical relationship between sales And time.

Many businesses prepare their sales forecast on the basis of past

sales.
Time series analysis involves breaking past sales down into four

components
(1)The trend: Are sales growing, flat or in decline.
(2) Seasonal or cyclical factors. Sales are affected by swings in general
economic activity (e.g. increases in the disposable income of
consumers may lead to increase in sales for products in a particular
industry). Seasonal and cyclical factors occur in a regular pattern
(3) Erratic events; these include strikes, fads, war scares and other
disturbances to the market which need to be isolated from past sales
data in order to be able to identify the more normal pattern of sales
(4) Responses: the results of particular measures that have been taken
to increase sales (e.g. a major new advertising campaign).

Reference
For a good of this see R. B. Miller and D .W

Wichern, intermediate Businees Statistics


P. E. Green and D.S. Tull, Research for
marketing decisions 4th prentice hall Page no
508-10
S.K. Mullick and D.D. Smith, how to
Choose the Right Forecasting Technique
Harvard Business Review 49 Page no 55-64

THANK YOU

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