N.

Gregory Mankiw
PowerPoint Slides by Ron Cronovich
CHAPTE
R

Economic Growth II:

Technology, Empirics, and
http://downloadslide.blogspot.com
Policy
2010 Worth Publishers, all rights reserved

SEVENTH EDITIO

MACROECONOMICS

In this chapter, you will learn:

how to incorporate technological progress in
the Solow model

about policies to promote growth

about growth empirics: confronting the
theory with facts

two simple models in which the rate of

technological progress is endogenous

Introduction
In the Solow model of Chapter 7,
the production technology is held constant.
income per capita is constant in the steady
state.
Neither point is true in the real world:
1908-2008: U.S. real GDP per person grew by
a factor of 7.8, or 2.05% per year.
examples of technological progress abound
(see next slide).
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Economic Growth II

Examples of technological progress

From 1950 to 2000, U.S. farm sector productivity

nearly tripled.
The real price of computer power has fallen an
average of 30% per year over the past three decades.
Percentage of U.S. households with 1 computers:
8% in 1984, 62% in 2003
1981: 213 computers connected to the Internet
2000: 60 million computers connected to the Internet
2001: iPod capacity = 5gb, 1000 songs. Not capable
of playing episodes of television shows.
2009: iPod capacity = 120gb, 30,000 songs. Can
play episodes of television shows.

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Economic Growth II

Technological progress in the

Solow model
A new variable: E = labor efficiency
Assume:
Technological progress is labor-augmenting:
it increases labor efficiency at the exogenous
rate g:

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Economic Growth II

Technological progress in the

Solow model
We now write the production function as:
where L E = the number of effective workers.
Increases in labor efficiency have the
same effect on output as increases in
the labor force.

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Technological progress in the

Solow model
Notation:
y = Y/LE = output per effective worker
k = K/LE = capital per effective worker

Production function per effective worker:

y = f(k)

Saving and investment per effective worker:

s y = s f(k)

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Economic Growth II

Technological progress in the

Solow model
( + n + g)k = break-even investment:
the amount of investment necessary
to keep k constant.
Consists of:
k to replace depreciating capital

n k to provide capital for new workers

g k to provide capital for the new effective
workers created by technological progress
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Technological progress in the

Solow model
Investment,
break-even
investment

k = s f(k) ( +n
+g)k
( +n +g ) k
sf(k)

k*
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Economic Growth II

Capital per
worker, k

Steady-state growth rates in the

Solow model with tech. progress

Capital per
effective worker

k = K/(LE )

Output per
effective worker

y = Y/(LE )

Output per worker

(Y/ L) = yE

Total output

Y = yEL

n+g

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10

The Golden Rule with

technological progress
To find the Golden Rule capital stock,
express c* in terms of k*:
In
In the
the Golden
Golden
*
*
*
c = y
i
Rule
Rule steady
steady state,
state,
the
= f (k* )
( + n + g) k*
the marginal
marginal
product
product of
of capital
capital
*
c is maximized when
net
net of
of depreciation
depreciation
MPK = + n + g
equals
equals the
the
pop.
pop. growth
growth rate
rate
or equivalently,
plus
plus the
the rate
rate of
of
MPK = n + g
tech
tech progress.
progress.
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11

Growth empirics: Balanced

growth
Solow models steady state exhibits
balanced growth - many variables grow
at the same rate.

Solow model predicts Y/L and K/L grow at the

same rate (g), so K/Y should be constant.
This is true in the real world.

Solow model predicts real wage grows at same

rate as Y/L, while real rental price is constant.
Also true in the real world.
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12

Growth empirics: Convergence

Solow model predicts that, other things equal,
poor countries (with lower Y/L and K/L) should
grow faster than rich ones.

If true, then the income gap between rich & poor

countries would shrink over time, causing living
standards to converge.

In real world, many poor countries do NOT grow

faster than rich ones. Does this mean the Solow
model fails?
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13

Growth empirics: Convergence

Solow model predicts that, other things equal,
poor countries (with lower Y/L and K/L) should
grow faster than rich ones.

No, because other things arent equal.

In samples of countries with
similar savings & pop. growth rates,
income gaps shrink about 2% per year.

In larger samples, after controlling for differences

in saving, pop. growth, and human capital,
incomes converge by about 2% per year.
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14

Growth empirics: Convergence

What the Solow model really predicts is
conditional convergence - countries converge
to their own steady states, which are determined
by saving, population growth, and education.

This prediction comes true in the real world.

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15

Growth empirics: Convergence

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16

Growth empirics: Convergence

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17

Growth empirics: Factor

accumulation vs. production
efficiency
Differences in income per capita among countries
can be due to differences in:
1. capital physical or human per worker
2. the efficiency of production
(the height of the production function)

Studies:
Both factors are important.
The two factors are correlated: countries with
higher physical or human capital per worker also
tend to have higher production efficiency.
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18

Growth empirics: Factor

accumulation vs. production
efficiency

Possible explanations for the correlation

between capital per worker and production
efficiency:

Production efficiency encourages capital

accumulation.

Capital accumulation has externalities that

raise efficiency.

A third, unknown variable causes

capital accumulation and efficiency to be
higher in some countries than others.
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19

Growth empirics:
Production efficiency and free trade
Since Adam Smith, economists have argued that
free trade can increase production efficiency and
living standards.

Research by Sachs & Warner:

CHAPTER 8

developed nations

2.3%

0.7%

developing nations

4.5%

0.7%

Economic Growth II

20

Growth empirics:
Production efficiency and free trade

To determine causation, Frankel and Romer

exploit geographic differences among countries:
Some nations trade less because they are farther
from other nations, or landlocked.
Such geographical differences are correlated with
trade but not with other determinants of income.
Hence, they can be used to isolate the impact of
trade on income.

Findings: increasing trade/GDP by 2% causes

GDP per capita to rise 1%, other things equal.
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21

Policy issues
Are we saving enough? Too much?
What policies might change the saving rate?
How should we allocate our investment between
privately owned physical capital, public
infrastructure, and human capital?

How do a countrys institutions affect production

efficiency and capital accumulation?

What policies might encourage faster

technological progress?
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22

Policy issues:
Evaluating the rate of saving
Use the Golden Rule to determine whether
the U.S. saving rate and capital stock are too
high, too low, or about right.

If (MPK ) > (n + g ),
U.S. is below the Golden Rule steady state
and should increase s.

If (MPK ) < (n + g ),
U.S. economy is above the Golden Rule steady
state and should reduce s.
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23

Policy issues:
Evaluating the rate of saving
To estimate (MPK ), use three facts about the
U.S. economy:
1. k = 2.5 y
The capital stock is about 2.5 times one years
GDP.
2. k = 0.1 y
About 10% of GDP is used to replace depreciating
capital.
3. MPK k = 0.3 y
Capital income is about 30% of GDP.
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24

Policy issues:
Evaluating the rate of
saving
1. k = 2.5 y

2. k = 0.1 y
3. MPK k = 0.3 y

To determine , divide 2 by 1:

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25

Policy issues:
Evaluating the rate of
saving
1. k = 2.5 y

2. k = 0.1 y
3. MPK k = 0.3 y

To determine MPK, divide 3 by 1:

Hence, MPK = 0.12 0.04 = 0.08

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26

Policy issues:
Evaluating the rate of saving
From the last slide: MPK = 0.08
U.S. real GDP grows an average of 3% per year,
so n + g = 0.03

Thus,
MPK = 0.08 > 0.03 = n + g

Conclusion:
The
The U.S.
U.S. is
is below
below the
the Golden
Golden Rule
Rule steady
steady state:
state:
Increasing
Increasing the
the U.S.
U.S. saving
saving rate
rate would
would increase
increase
consumption
consumption per
per capita
capita in
in the
the long
long run.
run.
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27

Policy issues:
How to increase the saving
rate
Reduce the government budget deficit
(or increase the budget surplus).

Increase incentives for private saving:

reduce capital gains tax, corporate income tax,
estate tax as they discourage saving.
replace federal income tax with a consumption
tax.
expand tax incentives for IRAs (individual
retirement accounts) and other retirement
savings accounts.
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28

Policy issues:
Allocating the economys
investment
In the Solow model, theres one type of capital.
In the real world, there are many types,
which we can divide into three categories:
private capital stock
public infrastructure
human capital: the knowledge and skills that
workers acquire through education

How should we allocate investment among these

types?
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29

Policy issues:
Allocating the economys
investment
Two viewpoints:

1. Equalize tax treatment of all types of capital in all

industries, then let the market allocate investment
to the type with the highest marginal product.
2. Industrial policy:
Govt should actively encourage investment in
capital of certain types or in certain industries,
because they may have positive externalities
that private investors dont consider.
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30

Possible problems with

industrial policy
The government may not have the ability to pick
winners (choose industries with the highest return
to capital or biggest externalities).

Politics (e.g., campaign contributions) rather than

economics may influence which industries get
preferential treatment.

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31

Policy issues:
Establishing the right institutions
Creating the right institutions is important for
ensuring that resources are allocated to their
best use. Examples:

Legal institutions, to protect property rights.

Capital markets, to help financial capital flow to
the best investment projects.

A corruption-free government, to promote

competition, enforce contracts, etc.

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32

Policy issues:
Encouraging tech. progress
Patent laws:
encourage innovation by granting temporary
monopolies to inventors of new products.

Tax incentives for R&D

Grants to fund basic research at universities
Industrial policy:
encourages specific industries that are key for
rapid tech. progress
(subject to the preceding concerns).
CHAPTER 8

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33

CASE STUDY:

The productivity slowdown

Growth in output per person
(percent per year)
1948-72

1972-95

Canada

2.9

1.8

France

4.3

1.6

Germany

5.7

2.0

Italy

4.9

2.3

Japan

8.2

2.6

U.K.

2.4

1.8

U.S.

2.2

1.5

Possible explanations for the

productivity slowdown
Measurement problems:
Productivity increases not fully measured.
But: Why would measurement problems
be worse after 1972 than before?

Oil prices:
Oil shocks occurred about when productivity
slowdown began.
But: Then why didnt productivity speed up
when oil prices fell in the mid-1980s?
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35

Possible explanations for the

productivity slowdown
Worker quality:
1970s - large influx of new entrants into labor force
(baby boomers, women).
New workers tend to be less productive than
experienced workers.

The depletion of ideas:

Perhaps the slow growth of 1972-1995 is normal,
and the rapid growth during 1948-1972 is the
anomaly.
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36

Which of these suspects is the

culprit?

All
All of
of them
them are
are plausible,
plausible,
but
but its
its difficult
difficult to
to prove
prove
that
that any
any one
one of
of them
them is
is guilty.
guilty.

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37

CASE STUDY:

I.T. and the New

Economy

Growth in output per person

(percent per year)

1948-72

1972-95

1995-2007

Canada

2.9

1.8

2.2

France

4.3

1.6

1.7

Germany

5.7

2.0

1.5

Italy

4.9

2.3

1.2

Japan

8.2

2.6

1.2

U.K.

2.4

1.8

2.6

U.S.

2.2

1.5

2.0

CASE STUDY:

I.T. and the New

Economy
Apparently, the computer revolution did not affect
aggregate productivity until the mid-1990s.
Two reasons:
1. Computer industrys share of GDP much
bigger in late 1990s than earlier.
2. Takes time for firms to determine how to
utilize new technology most effectively.
The big, open question:
How long will I.T. remain an engine of growth?
CHAPTER 8

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39

Endogenous growth theory

Solow model:
sustained growth in living standards is due to
tech progress.
the rate of tech progress is exogenous.

Endogenous growth theory:

a set of models in which the growth rate of
productivity and living standards is
endogenous.

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40

A basic model
Production function: Y = A K
where A is the amount of output for each
unit of capital (A is exogenous & constant)

Key difference between this model & Solow:

MPK is constant here, diminishes in Solow

Investment: s Y
Depreciation: K
Equation of motion for total capital:
K = s Y K
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41

A basic model
K = s Y K

Divide through by K and use Y = A K to get:

If s A > , then income will grow forever, and

investment is the engine of growth.

Here, the permanent growth rate depends on

s. In Solow model, it does not.

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Economic Growth II

42

Does capital have diminishing

returns or not?
Depends on definition of capital.
If capital is narrowly defined (only plant &
equipment), then yes.

Advocates of endogenous growth theory

argue that knowledge is a type of capital.

If so, then constant returns to capital is more

plausible, and this model may be a good
description of economic growth.
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43

A two-sector model
Two sectors:
manufacturing firms produce goods.
research universities produce knowledge that
increases labor efficiency in manufacturing.

u = fraction of labor in research

(u is exogenous)

Mfg prod func: Y = F [K, (1-u )E L]

Res prod func: E = g (u )E
Cap accumulation: K = s Y K
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44

A two-sector model
In the steady state, mfg output per worker
and the standard of living grow at rate
E/E = g (u ).

Key variables:
s: affects the level of income, but not its
growth rate (same as in Solow model)
u: affects level and growth rate of income

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45

DISCUSSION QUESTION:

The merits of raising u

Question:
Would an increase in u be unambiguously
good for the economy?
Why or why not?

Facts about R&D

1. Much research is done by firms seeking profits.
2. Firms profit from research:

Patents create a stream of monopoly profits.

Extra profit from being first on the market with a
new product.
3. Innovation produces externalities that reduce the
cost of subsequent innovation.

Much
Much of
of the
the new
new endogenous
endogenous growth
growth theory
theory
attempts
attempts to
to incorporate
incorporate these
these facts
facts into
into models
models
to
to better
better understand
understand technological
technological progress.
progress.
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47

Is the private sector doing

enough R&D?
The existence of positive externalities in the
creation of knowledge suggests that the private
sector is not doing enough R&D.

But, there is much duplication of R&D effort

among competing firms.

Estimates:
Social return to R&D 40% per year.

Thus, many believe govt should encourage R&D.

CHAPTER 8

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48

Chapter Summary
1. Key results from Solow model with tech progress
steady state growth rate of income per person
depends solely on the exogenous rate of tech
progress
the U.S. has much less capital than the Golden
Rule steady state
2. Ways to increase the saving rate
increase public saving (reduce budget deficit)
tax incentives for private saving

Chapter Summary
3. Productivity slowdown & new economy
Early 1970s: productivity growth fell in the U.S.
and other countries.
Mid 1990s: productivity growth increased,
probably because of advances in I.T.
4. Empirical studies
Solow model explains balanced growth,
conditional convergence
Cross-country variation in living standards is
due to differences in cap. accumulation and in
production efficiency

Chapter Summary
5. Endogenous growth theory: Models that
examine the determinants of the rate of
tech. progress, which Solow takes as given.
explain decisions that determine the creation of
knowledge through R&D.