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Demographic Transition: by Katta Vijay Simha SC14B021

This document summarizes the demographic transition model, which describes the transition from high birth and death rates to lower rates as a country develops. It describes the model's five stages: stage 1 has high, balanced rates; stage 2 sees death rates fall while birth rates remain high, causing population growth; stage 3 involves birth rates falling due to social factors like contraception and urbanization; stage 4 stabilizes rates at low levels; and stage 5 sees sub-replacement fertility. The document applies this model to India's current position in stage 3 and its future prospects of a demographic dividend from its growing working-age population.

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Siri Gundapuneedi
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44 views

Demographic Transition: by Katta Vijay Simha SC14B021

This document summarizes the demographic transition model, which describes the transition from high birth and death rates to lower rates as a country develops. It describes the model's five stages: stage 1 has high, balanced rates; stage 2 sees death rates fall while birth rates remain high, causing population growth; stage 3 involves birth rates falling due to social factors like contraception and urbanization; stage 4 stabilizes rates at low levels; and stage 5 sees sub-replacement fertility. The document applies this model to India's current position in stage 3 and its future prospects of a demographic dividend from its growing working-age population.

Uploaded by

Siri Gundapuneedi
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Demographic

Transition
By Katta Vijay Simha
SC14B021

What it is?
It refers to the transition from high

birth and death rates to low birth and


death rates as a country develops
from Pre-Industrial to an
Industrialized Economic System.
By the American Demographer

Warren Thompson, 1929.

How it is studied?
This transition is divided into four stages

or five stages if possible.


Demonstrated by Demographic Transition

Model(DTM).
The Theory is based on a interpretation of

Demographic history of Industrialized


societies.

1 Stage
st

Birth and Death rates are very high but

somehow roughly balanced.


Society is constrained by available food supply.
Non existence of family planning and

Contraception.
Emigrations and unavailability of medicines

death rates to match birth rates.

Causes the following:Raising children costs more than feeding the

children.
Children contributes to the economy of the

country in early ages.


Increases child labour , no education to them.
Population dynamics is comparable to animals

living in the wild.

nd

Stage

Death rates fall rapidly but birth rates almost

remains the same.


Life expectancy and basic health care increases.
New technologies to improve the food production

like selective breeding, crop rotation etc.,


Increase in the availability of medicines.

Causes the following:Access to new technologies and

communications.
Childhood mortality reduces, creates

imbalance in birth rates and death rates.


Large increase in Population.
Leads to implement Contraception in the

country.

Age Pyramid during 2


Stage

nd

3 Stage
rd

Birth rate starts to fall due to acceptance of

Contraception methods.
Increase in Urbanization.
Increase in female literacy and employment.
Changes in Social values.

Causes the following:Contraception do play a role but it is also by

transition in values.
Birth rate declines in developed country.
Increases the parental investments in children
education and social changes.
Increase in the aging population, results in the
increase of working age population.
Creates human potential in the Country.

4 Stage
th

Both Birth rates and Death rates fall and

roughly get balanced indicates the total


population is high and stable.
Lower rates of diseases and high production
of food.
Opportunities to choose the children, if they
want, mainly for women.
Women gains independence and employment
opportunities.
Fertility rate less than 2.5.

Causes the following:Leading to the shrink in the total population.


Threat to the industries that rely on

population.
Death rates may remain low or slightly
increase due to lifestyle diseases.
Lifestyle diseases Obesity, low exercise
levels, heart diseases etc.,
Causes the Economic burden to the nation.
Mostly observed in Developed countries.

5 Stage
th

Sub replacement fertility that is below 2.1-

2.2.
Boys are more often 1.1 to 1.0.
Reduction in female population.
Aging Population increases in the country.

Causes the following:Reproduction in the nation decreases.


Decrease in the population of working age.
Increase in the death rate in future.
Purchasing power parity of the nation

decreases.
- assuming no change in fertility rate and
no mass immigration.

Demographic Transition
Model

Effects of Age Structure:In 1st stage the infant mortality is very high.
Decline in childhood mortality results increase

in children population during 2nd stage.


Also causes increase in fertile population.
Hence the 2nd stage implies rise in childhood
dependency.
During 3rd stage these become the working
population of the nation.

About INDIA:As of 2013 India is in late half of 3rd stage of

Demographic transition with 1.23 billion


people.
40 years behind in DTM when compared to

European Union and Japan.


India will yield rich demographic dividend in

future decades.

Statistics as per 2014:Age Group


(Years)

% population

0-14

28.57

15-24

18.1

25-54

40.6

55-64

64 and above

5.1

Median age - 27 years


Male - 26.4 years
Female- 27.7 years

Dependency Ratio:Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the sum

of the population of 0-14 and above 64 age


group to the population of 15-64 age group.
Total dependency ratio of India is 51.8%.

Rate and Rank of INDIA


100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

India
Rank in World

THANK YOU

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