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Demographic Model Untuk Merancang Sistem Transportasi

This document discusses demographic models for transportation system planning. It describes 6 population forecasting models: linear growth, exponential growth, modified exponential, double exponential/logistic, comparative methods, and cohort survival. Factors like data availability and past demographic behavior determine which model to use. Migration, birth rate, and death rate are components of population growth. Birth rates depend on female fertility rates by age group. The document provides examples of how to apply the linear, exponential, and double exponential growth models to forecast future population levels.

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Muhammad Addy Abdillah
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© © All Rights Reserved
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Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
33 views

Demographic Model Untuk Merancang Sistem Transportasi

This document discusses demographic models for transportation system planning. It describes 6 population forecasting models: linear growth, exponential growth, modified exponential, double exponential/logistic, comparative methods, and cohort survival. Factors like data availability and past demographic behavior determine which model to use. Migration, birth rate, and death rate are components of population growth. Birth rates depend on female fertility rates by age group. The document provides examples of how to apply the linear, exponential, and double exponential growth models to forecast future population levels.

Uploaded by

Muhammad Addy Abdillah
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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DEMOGRAPHIC

MODEL UNTUK
MERANCANG
SISTEM
TRANSPORTASI
TATAP MUKA - 8
Kamis, 7 April 2015

PROGRAM MAGISTER TEKNIK SIPIL


PROGRAM PASCASARJANA - UNIVERSIRAS
DIPONEGORO - S E M A R A N G
2015

BIRTH RATE

PERTUMBUHAN
ALAMI

MODEL
DEMOGRAFI

DEATH RATE

MIGRASI
MIGRASI
OUT
MIGRASI
IN

4
MODEL

ECONOMIC
BASE MODEL

MODEL ANALISIS
KEGIATAN
EKONOMI

INPUT-OUTPUT
MODEL

SHIFT SHARE
MODEL

TARIKAN
KEGIATAN
EKONOMI

KOTA/
WILAYAH

THE EMPLOYMENT &


POP. MULTIPLIER
MODEL

TOOLS OF URBAN AND REGIONAL TRANSPORT ANALYSIS

THERE ARE 6 MODELS FOR AGGREGATE


POPULATION FORCASTING :
THE LINIER GROWTH MODEL
THE EXPONENTIAL GROWTH MODEL

DEMOGRAPHIC
FORCASTING
MODELS

THE MODIFIED EXPONENTIAL


GROWTH MODEL
THE DOUBLE EXPONENTAL
AND LOGISTIC MODEL
THE COMPARATIVE METHODS
COHORT SURVIVAL MODEL

Model demographic mana yang dipakai, tergantung pada :


KETERSEDIAAN DATA.
DEMOGRAPHIC BEHAVIOUR SELAMA TIME SERIES
TERTENTU

6
MODELS

DATA KEPENDUDUKAN MASA LALU

n-6

n-5

n-4

n-3

n-2

n-1

DATA TIME SERIES

MODEL
TERPILIH

TO BE USED, WHEN :
A pattern of population growth will continue to
change at its present rate.
The aggregate population level will increase/decrease proportional with time.
The population grows or decreases by an equal
ammount every year.
P1 = P o + a
P2 = P1 + a = (P0 + a) + a = P0 + 2a
P3 = P2 + a = (P0 + 2a) + a = P0 + 3a
Pn = Pn-1 + a = P0+(n-1)a + a = P0 +na

THE POPULATION LEVEL AT TIME n :

Pn = Po + na
di mana : Pn = Population level at the n time period.
Po = The base population level.
a = Growth per unit time.
n = Time period (mounth, semester, years, etc).

Pn

a
a

Po

n-1

n+1

n time

Example :

Assume that the population level in a given area has been


growing by 20,000 every year over the last 20 years.
The pupolation level to day is 250,000.
What wiil the population levels be 5 and 10 years from now?
Pn = Po + na
Pn = Po + 20,000 n
Thus, in 5 years it will be P5 = 250,000 + 20,000 (5)
= 250,000 + 100.000
= 350,000.
and in 10 years it will be P10 = 250.000 + 20,000 (10)
= 250,000 + 200,000
= 450,000.

TO BE USED THE MODEL, WHEN :

The population rate of growth is not constant, but itself


various with time.
The population change is not proportional to the existing level
of population.
Pn+1 Pn = rPn
Where : (Pn+1 Pn) = The increment in population from unit time n to unit time n
+ 1, and r is the proportional factor.

Pn+1 - Pn
r = ------Pn

r = rate of change.

P1 P0 = r P0

or P1 = (1+r) P0

P2 P1 = r P1

or P2 = (1+r) P1 = (1+r)(1+r) P0 = (1+r)2 P0

P3 P2 = r P2

or P3 = (1+r) P2 = (1+r)(1+r)2 P0 = (1+r)3 P0

Pn Pn-1 = r Pn-1

or Pn = (1+r) Pn-1 = (1+r)(1+r)n-1 P0

P n = (1+r) nP0

Pn

Pn

>a

>a

a
<a

EXPONENTIAL GROWTH MODEL

EXPONENTIAL DECREASE MODEL

The equivalent of formula


Exponential Growth/Decrease model
For Growth : Pn = Po (1+r)n
For Decrease : Pn = Po (1-r)n

Example :
The population level to day is 125,000. Rate of growth is 5.00% per years.
What will the populatation level be in 10 years.
Solution :
Pn = (1+r)n Po

= (1 + 0.005)n Po
= (1.05)10 (125,000)
= 1.63 (125,000) = 203,612

used the logarithm facilitate :


log (1.05)10

= 10 log (1.05) = 10 (0.02118) = 0.2118

log 125,000 = log 125 . 103 = 3 + log 125 = 5.0969


log P10

= log 1.0510 + log 125,000


= 0.2118 + 5.0969

= 5.3087

Anti log 5.3087 = 203,564

The result defferent because Rounding of the logarithms.

TO BE USED THIS MODEL, WHEN :


The population level will continue to grow/decrease
identifinitely.
The population will eventually become infinite.

P~ - Pn
------------ = V
P~ - Pn-1

Pn

Di mana :
P~ : The ultimate population level
v : Constant < 1

P~
P~ - Pn+1

P~ - Po

P~ - Pn

Po

P~ - Pn -1
time
n-1

n+1

CASCADE PROCEDURE :
P~ - P1 = v(P~ - P0)
P~ - P2 = v(P~ - P1) = v.v(P~ - P0) = v2(P~ - P0)
P~ - P3 = v(P~ - P2) = v.v2(P~ - P0) = v3(P~ - P0)
---------------------------------------P~ - Pn = v(P~ - Pn-1) = v.vn-1(P~ - P0) = vn(P~ -P0)

Pn = P~ - vn(P~ - Po)
Example :
The enrollment at a university is projected to be stabilized at 30,000, and that it
is currently 10,000. The policy of the administration of the university is to have
decreasing yearly enrollment in such a fashion that each decade only a third of the
previous decades growth would be allowed.
For such a policy, how many years will it take to reach a level of enrollment of 15,000.?

Pn = P~ - vn (P~ - P0)
P~ = 30,000
P0 = 10,000
V = 1/3

Pn = 30,000 (1/3)n (20,000)

Pn = 15,000

15,000 = 30,000 (1/3)n (20,000)


(1/3)n

30,000 15,000
= --------------- = 0.75
20,000

n Log 1/3 = log 0.75


log 0.75
-0.125
n = ------- = ------- = 0.261
log 0.33
-0.478
15,000 will be reached on 0.261 decade = 2.61 years

IT MIGHT BE OBSERVED THAT HISTORICALLY A CERTAIN


COUNTY IN A GIVEN STATE HAS BEEN GROWING PROPORTINALLY
TO THE TOTAL POPULATION OF THE STATE.
IF THE POPULATION FOR THE STATE
Pts PROJECTION FOR THE COUNTY.
Ptc CAN EASILY BE DERIVED :

P tc = k P ts
Note : Ptc
Pts
k

= Population projection at county on t time.


= Population projection at state on t time.
= The propoortionality factor

Ilustrasi : Historis menunjukkan bahwa penduduk metropolitan area (city)


selalu 20,00% dari total penduduk state. Diasumsikan bahwa penduduk state diproyeksikan tumbuh mengikuti model linier sbb :
Pts = 2 + 0,1 t.
Pertanyaan : Dalam waktu berapa tahun penduduk city menjadi 2 kali lipat ?

Ptc = 0,2 Pts


Pts = 2 + 0,1t

Ptc = 0,8 = 0,2 (2 + 0,1t)

Ptc = 0,2 (2+0,1t)


Poc = 0,2 (2 + 0,1.0) = 0,4 JUTA
SUPAYA MENJADI 2 KALI LIPAT
Poc = 2 x 0,4 = 0,8 JUTA

0,8
= 2 + 0,1t = ---- = 4
0,2
0,1t = 4 - 2
t = 20
Jadi penduduk metropolitan are (city) akan berlipat
menjadi 2 kali lipat setelah jangka waktu 20 tahun.

ASSUMPTION :

A finite ultimate level of population Pt = P~ abt


Pt = P~ abt
Log Log P~/P
Log Pt = Log P~ + bt Log a

P~
Log (---) = -bt Log a
Pt
= bt Log 1/a

Slope : Log b

Log Log 1/a


P~
Log Log (---) = Log Log (1/a) + t Log b.
Pt

PLOT OF THE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL


MODEL USING DOUBLE LOGARITHMS

AT TIME t = 0
p~
P~
We have : Log Log (---) = Log Log (1/a) or --- = 1/a
P0
P0
P0
or finally : a = --P~

Pt

P~

P0

An Illustration :
Let us assume that we would like to fit a double exponential model to
the evolution of a population. Level starting from a base of 80,000 and stabilizing eventually at a level of
200,000.
Suppose that we also know that the level is expected to be
150,000 after 10 years.
P0
80,000
a = --- = ------- = 0.4
P~
200,000
P~
Log Log ( --) = Log Log (1/a) + t Log b
Pt
200,000
1
Log Log ( --------) = Log Log ( ----) + 10 Log b
150,000
0.4

- 0.90
Log b
b
Pt = (200,000) 0.4

= - 0.40 + 10 Log b
-0.90 + 0.40
= ------------ = -0.05
10
= 0.89
(0,89)t

3 COMPONENTS OF THE
POPULATION GROWTH

THE ORIGIN
POPULATION IN
TERMS
OF AGE GROUPS
P 10
P 20
P 30

BIRTH
MORTA
LITY

MIGRA
TION

P0 =

Pi0

a.

Birth Rate
The fertility rate of the various age group corresponding to child
bearing ages for females will be :
bk, bk+1, bk+2, bi, bq
These rates are for a time period of t years equal to the span of the
age group
Thus, bk will be defined as the ratio of the number babies (boys or
girls) born from females in the kth group in the time period of length t
over the total size (male or female) of that group.
Number of birth from group k
Bk = -----------------------Number of birth
form group k

P 0k
= ( bk )( P0k )

The total number of babies born in a time period of t years will therefore be :
bk pok + bk+1 pok+1 + + bq poq

p1 = bk pok + bk+1 pok+1 + bq poq


p1
p2
pi
pu

0 0 - - bk
0 0 - - - - - - - - - - 0 0 - - - - - - - - - - 0 0 - - 0 0 - - -

bk+1 - 0
- - - 0
- - - 0
- -

bq 0
- - 0
- - - - - - 0
- - - - - - 0
- - 0

p 10
p 20
p uo

P0

The total number of babies born in a time period of t years will therefore be :
bk pok + bk+1 pok+1 + + bq poq

p1 = bk pok + bk+1 pok+1 + bq poq


p1
p2
pi
pu

0 0 - - bk
0 0 - - - - - - - - - - 0 0 - - - - - - - - - - 0 0 - - 0 0 - - -

bk+1 - 0
- - - 0
- - - 0
- -

bq 0
- - 0
- - - - - - 0
- - - - - - 0
- - 0

p 10
p 20
p uo

P0

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