Knowledge-Based Systems

in Business Workshop
PAIW-April 2003
Jay E. Aronson
Professor of Management Information Systems
AI Faculty Fellow
Director: Master of Internet Technology Program
MIS@Terry College of Business
[email protected]
706/542-0991
www.terry.uga.edu/people/jaronson/
ebiz.terry.uga.edu (MIT Program)

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Jay E. Aronson: KBS inBusiness Workshop: PAIW April 2003

Material Adapted From

Turban, Efraim, and Jay E.
Aronson, Decision Support
Systems and Intelligent
Systems, Prentice Hall, Upper
Saddle River, NJ, 6th edition,
2001/7th edition, 2004.

Outline

Artificial intelligence
Expert system/knowledge-based systems
Knowledge Engineering
Knowledge Acquisition
Knowledge Representation
Inferencing
Expert Systems Practicum
Intelligent Systems Development
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Artificial Intelligence
(Simple Definition)
Behavior by a machine that, if
performed by a human being,
would be called intelligent

AI Objectives

Make machines smarter (primary

goal)
Understand what intelligence is
(Nobel Laureate purpose)

Make

machines more
useful (entrepreneurial
purpose)
5

AI Represents
Knowledge as Sets of
Symbols
A symbol is a string of characters
that stands for some real-world
concept

Examples

Product
Defendant
0.8
Chocolate
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How AI Works

AI Programs Manipulate Symbols to

Solve Problems

Symbols and Symbol Structures Form

Knowledge Representation

Artificial Intelligence Dealings

Primarily with Symbolic,
Nonalgorithmic Problem Solving
Methods
7

Some Major AI Areas

Expert Systems
Natural Language Processing
Speech Understanding
(Smart) Robotics and Sensory Systems
Neural Computing
Fuzzy Logic
Genetic Algorithms
Intelligent Software Agents

Expert
Systems/KnowledgeBased Systems

Attempt to Imitate Expert Reasoning

Processes and Knowledge in Solving
Specific Problems
Most Popular Applied AI Technology
Enhance Productivity
Augment Work Forces

Narrow Problem-Solving Domain or Tasks

Qualitative Problem-Solving Aspects
9

Expert Systems

Provide Direct Application of

Expertise

Expert Systems Do Not Replace

Experts, But
Makes their Knowledge and
Experience More Widely Available
Permits Non Experts to Work Better
10

Expert Systems

Expertise
Transferring Expertise
Inferencing
Rules
Explanation Capability

11

Human Expert Behaviors

Recognize and formulating the problem

Solve problems quickly and properly
Explain the solution
Learn from experience
Restructure knowledge
Break rules
Determine relevance
Degrade gracefully
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Transferring Expertise

Objective of an expert system

To transfer expertise from an expert to a computer

system and
Then on to other humans (nonexperts)

Activities

Knowledge acquisition
Knowledge representation
Knowledge inferencing
Knowledge transfer to the user

Knowledge is stored in a knowledge base

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Inferencing

Reasoning (Thinking)
The computer is programmed so
that it can make inferences
Performed by the Inference
Engine

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Rules

IF-THEN-ELSE

Explanation Capability

By the justifier, or explanation

subsystem

ES versus Conventional Systems

15

Structure of Expert Systems

Development Environment
Consultation (Runtime)
Environment

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Three Major ES
Components
User Interface

Inference
Engine

Knowledge
Base
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All ES Components

Knowledge Acquisition Subsystem

Knowledge Base
Inference Engine
User Interface
Blackboard (Workplace)
Explanation Subsystem (Justifier)
Knowledge Refining System
User

Most ES do not have a Knowledge Refinement

Component

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Knowledge Base

The knowledge base contains the knowledge

necessary for understanding, formulating, and
solving problems
Two Basic Knowledge Base Elements

Facts
Special heuristics, or rules that direct the use of
knowledge
Knowledge is the primary raw material of ES
Incorporated knowledge representation
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Inference Engine

The brain of the ES

The control structure (rule
interpreter)
Provides methodology for
reasoning

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User Interface

Language processor for friendly,

problem-oriented communication
NLP, or menus and graphics

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The Human Element

in Expert Systems

Expert
Knowledge Engineer
User
Others

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How Expert Systems Work

Major Activities of
ES Implementation and Use
Development
Consultation
Improvement
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ES Shell

Includes All Generic ES

Components
But No Knowledge
EMYCIN from MYCIN
(E=Empty)

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Expert Systems (RuleBased) Shells/Software

Development Packages

Corvid Exsys
K-Vision
KnowledgePro
XpertRule KBS
G2
Guru
CLIPS
JESS
Many More: Free and Costly
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Problem Areas Addressed by

Expert Systems

Interpretation systems
Prediction systems
Diagnostic systems
Design systems
Planning systems
Monitoring systems
Debugging systems
Repair systems
Instruction systems
Control systems
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Expert Systems Benefits

Improved Decision Quality

Increased Output and Productivity
Decreased Decision Making Time
Increased Process(es) and Product Quality
Capture Scarce Expertise
Can Work with Incomplete or Uncertain Information
Enhancement of Problem Solving and Decision Making
Improved Decision Making Processes
Knowledge Transfer to Remote Locations
Enhancement of Other MIS

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Lead to

Improved decision making

Improved products and customer
service
Sustainable strategic advantage
May enhance organizations
image
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Problems and Limitations of

Expert Systems

Knowledge is not always readily available

Expertise can be hard to extract from humans
Expert system users have natural cognitive limits
ES work well only in a narrow domain of knowledge
Knowledge engineers are rare and expensive
Lack of trust by end-users
ES may not be able to arrive at valid conclusions
ES sometimes produce incorrect recommendations

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Expert System Success Factors

Most Critical Factors

Champion in Management
User Involvement and Training

Plus

The level of knowledge must be sufficiently high

There must be (at least) one cooperative expert
The problem must be qualitative (fuzzy) not quantitative
The problem must be sufficiently narrow in scope
The ES shell must be high quality, and naturally store and
manipulate the knowledge

A friendly user interface

Important and difficult enough problem

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For Success
1. Business applications justified by
strategic impact (competitive
advantage)
2. Well-defined and structured
applications

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Keep Going!

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Knowledge Acquisition
Knowledge Engineering
Knowledge acquisition, representation,
validation, inferencing, explanation
and maintenance

Involves the cooperation of human experts

Synergistic effect

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Knowledge Engineering
Process Activities

Knowledge Acquisition
Knowledge Validation
Knowledge Representation
Inferencing
Explanation and Justification

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Knowledge Engineering Process

Knowledge
validation
(test cases)

Sources of knowledge
(experts, others)
Knowledge
Acquisition

Knowledge
base

Encoding

Knowledge
Representation

Explanation
justification
Inferencing
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Knowledge Acquisition
Methods

Manual (Interviews)

Semiautomatic (Expert-driven)

Automatic (Computer Aided Induction driven)

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Interviews

Most Common Knowledge

Acquisition: Face-to-face interviews
Interview Types

Unstructured (informal)
Semi-structured
Structured
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Recommendation
Before a knowledge engineer interviews the
expert(s)
1. Interview a less knowledgeable (minor) expert
Helps the knowledge engineer

Learn about the problem

Learn its significance
Learn about the expert(s)
Learn who the users will be
Understand the basic terminology
Identify readable sources

2. Next read about the problem

3. Then, interview the expert(s) (much more
effectively)
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Induction/Knowledge Table
Example

Induction tables (knowledge

maps) focus the knowledge
acquisition process
Choosing a hospital clinic facility
site

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Induction Table (Knowledge Map) Example

Population
Density
People /
Square Mile
>= 2000

Density
over How
Many Sq.
mi
Numeric,
Region Size
>=4

Number of
Near (within 2
miles)
Competitors
0, 1, 2, 3, ...

>=3500

>=4

Yes

>=2

No

Average
Family
Income

Near Public
Transportation?

Decision
(Choices)

Numeric,
$ / Year

Yes, No

Yes, No

<30,000

Yes

No

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Knowledge Table Exercise

Choose a restaurant for lunch in Athens

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Keep Going!

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Knowledge Representation
Once acquired,
knowledge
must be organized for use
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Introduction

A good knowledge representation naturally

represents the problem domain
An unintelligible knowledge representation
is wrong
Most artificial intelligence systems consist of
Knowledge Base
Inference Mechanism (Engine)
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Knowledge Base

Forms the system's intelligence source

Inference mechanism uses to reason and draw conclusions

Inference mechanism: Examines the knowledge base

to answer questions, solve problems or make
decisions within the domain
Many knowledge representation schemes
Can be programmed and stored in memory
Are designed for use in reasoning

Major knowledge representation schemas:

Production rules
Frames

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Production Rules

Condition-Action Pairs

IF this condition (or premise or antecedent) occurs,

THEN some action (or result, or conclusion, or
consequence) will (or should) occur
IF the stop light is red AND you have stopped,
THEN a right turn is OK

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Each production rule in a knowledge base

represents an autonomous chunk of expertise
When combined and fed to the inference
engine, the set of rules behaves synergistically
Rules can be viewed as a simulation of the
cognitive behavior of human experts
Rules represent a model of actual human
behavior

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Forms of Rules

IF premise, THEN conclusion

IF your income is high, THEN your chance of being
audited by the IRS is high

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More on Rules

Inclusion of ELSE

IF your income is high, OR your deductions are unusual,

THEN your chance of being audited by the IRS is high,
OR ELSE your chance of being audited is low

More Complex Rules

IF credit rating is high AND salary is more than $30,000,

OR assets are more than $75,000, AND pay history is not
"poor," THEN approve a loan up to $10,000, and list the
loan in category "B.
Action part may have more information: THEN "approve
the loan" and "refer to an agent"

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Advantages of Rules

Easy to understand (natural form of knowledge)

Easy to derive inference and explanations

Easy to modify and maintain

Easy to combine with uncertainty

Rules are frequently independent

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Limitations of Rules

Complex knowledge requires many rules

Builders like rules (hammer syndrome)

Search limitations in systems with many

rules

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Multiple Knowledge Representations

Rules + Frames
Others
Knowledge Representation Must Support

Acquiring knowledge
Retrieving knowledge
Reasoning
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Considerations for
Evaluating a Knowledge
Representation

Naturalness, uniformity and understandability

Degree to which knowledge is explicit
(declarative) or embedded in procedural code
Modularity and flexibility of the knowledge base
Efficiency of knowledge retrieval and the
heuristic power of the inference procedure
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No single knowledge representation method is

ideally suited by itself for all tasks
Multiple knowledge representations: each
tailored to a different subtask
Production rules and frames works well in
practice
Object-oriented knowledge representations
Hypermedia

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Keep Going!

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Inference Techniques

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Reasoning in Artificial Intelligence

Knowledge must be processed (reasoned with)

Computer program accesses knowledge for inferencing
Inference engine or control program
Rule interpreter (in rule-based systems)
Directs search through the knowledge base

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Inferencing with Rules:

Forward and Backward Chaining
Firing a rule: When all of the rule's hypotheses (the
if parts) are satisfied
Can check every rule in the knowledge base in a
forward or backward direction
Continues until no more rules can fire, or until a
goal is achieved

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Forward and Backward Chaining

Chaining: Linking a set of pertinent rules
Search process: directed by a rule interpreter
approach:
Forward chaining. If the premise clauses match the
situation, then the process attempts to assert the conclusion
Backward chaining. If the current goal is to determine the
correct conclusion, then the process attempts to determine
whether the premise clauses (facts) match the situation

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Backward Chaining

Goal-driven - Start from a potential conclusion

(hypothesis), then seek evidence that supports
(or contradicts) it

Often involves formulating and testing

intermediate hypotheses (or subhypotheses)

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Forward Chaining

Data-driven - Start from available information

as it becomes available, then try to draw
conclusions

What to use?
If all facts available up front (as in auditing) forward chaining
Diagnostic problems - backward chaining

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Representing Uncertainty

Numeric

Graphic

Symbolic

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Numeric Uncertainty Representation

Scale (0-1, 0-100)

0 = Complete uncertainty
1 or 100 = Complete certainty

Problems with Cognitive Biases

People May be Inconsistent at Different Times

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Keep Going!

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Expert Systems Demo

EXSYS (Corvid)

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Keep Going!

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Intelligent Systems
Development

(Rapid) Prototyping

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Prototyping:
ES Development Life Cycle
(PADI)

Nonlinear process

Planning
Analysis
Design
Implementation
Prototype
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Software Classification:
Technology Levels
Expert System Applications (Specific ES)

Shells
Hybrid Systems
Support Tools, Facilities,
and Construction Aids
Programming Languages
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Rapid Prototyping
and a Demonstration Prototype

Build a small prototype

Test, improve, expand

Demonstrate and analyze feasibility

Complete design
70

Rapid Prototyping

Crucial to ES development
Small-scale system
Includes knowledge representation
Small number of rules
For proof of concept

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What Weve Done

Basic definitions/methods/ideas

Advanced definitions/methods/ideas

How to KBS/ES

KBS/ES with a business focus

Very rich area still much potential in business

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Questions
Comments
Opinions
Coffee?
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