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Probability The Science of Uncertainty

The document discusses key concepts in probability, including experiments, sample spaces, outcomes, events, and rules for calculating probabilities. It provides examples of experiments like tossing a coin or rolling dice to illustrate these concepts. The key rules discussed are that the probabilities of all outcomes in a sample space must sum to 1, and that for events with equally likely outcomes, the probability of an event is the number of outcomes in the event divided by the total number of outcomes in the sample space.

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Nashwa Saad
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152 views12 pages

Probability The Science of Uncertainty

The document discusses key concepts in probability, including experiments, sample spaces, outcomes, events, and rules for calculating probabilities. It provides examples of experiments like tossing a coin or rolling dice to illustrate these concepts. The key rules discussed are that the probabilities of all outcomes in a sample space must sum to 1, and that for events with equally likely outcomes, the probability of an event is the number of outcomes in the event divided by the total number of outcomes in the sample space.

Uploaded by

Nashwa Saad
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Consider a day in the

life of an average
student.
You wake up in the morning and the
sunlight hits your eyes. Then suddenly
without warning the world becomes an
uncertain place.
How long will you have to wait for
the Number 10 Bus this morning?
When it arrives will it be full?
Will it be out of service?
Will it be raining while you wait?
Will you be late for your 9am Maths
lecture?
Probability
is the
Science of Uncertainty.
Consider
a Real Problem

Can you make money playing the


Lottery?
Let us calculate chances of winning.
To do this we need to learn some basic
rules about probability.
These rules are mainly just ways of
formalising basic common sense .
Example: What are the chances that you
get a HEAD when you toss a coin?
Example: What are the chances you get a
combined total of 7 when you roll two dice?
1.1 Experiments
An Experiment leads to a single
outcome which cannot be predicted
with certainty.
Examples-
Toss a coin: head or tail
Roll a die: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Take medicine: worse, same, better

Set of all outcomes Sample Space.

Toss a coin Sample space = {h,t}


Roll a die Sample space = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
1.2 Probability
The Probability of an outcome is a
number between 0 and 1 that measures
the likelihood that the outcome will
occur when the experiment is
performed. (0=impossible, 1=certain).

Probabilities of all sample points must


sum to 1.
Long run relative frequency interpretation.
EXAMPLE: Coin tossing experiment
P(H)=0.5 P(T)=0.5
1.3 Events

An event is a specific collection of


sample points.

The probability of an event A is


calculated by summing the
probabilities of the outcomes in the
sample space for A.
Example:
THE GAME Of CRAPS
In Craps one rolls two fair dice.

What is the probability of the


sum of the two dice showing 7?
(1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)
(2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)
(3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)
(4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)
(5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)
(6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)

(1,6)
(2,5)
(3,4)
(4,3)
(5,2)
(6,1)
1.5 Equally likely
outcomes
So the Probability of 7 when
rolling two dice is 1/6
This example illustrates the
following rule:

In a Sample Space S of equally


likely outcomes. The probability
of the event A is given by
P(A) = #A / #S
That is the number of outcomes
in A divided by the total number
of events in S.
1.6 Sets
A compound event is a composition of
two or more other events.
AC: The Complement of A is the event
that A does not occur
AB : The Union of two events A and
B is the event that occurs if either A or
B or both occur, it consists of all sample
points that belong to A or B or both.
AB: The Intersection of two events
A and B is the event that occurs if both
A and B occur, it consists of all sample
points that belong to both A and B
Tossing a fair coin
Prob of equal
numbers of H and T

# of
2 4 6 8 10
tosses

3/8 5/16 35/128 63/256

Prob 0.5 0.375 0.3125 0.273 0.246

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