Chapter 2
Chapter 2
Slump
Boom
B. Macroeconomic theories are divided into two main topics
1. Economic growth analysis studies the causes of long-run sustained growth
in real GDP.
2. Business cycle analysis studies the short-run expansions and contractions
in real GDP.
C. Factors that contribute to long-run economic growth
1. Technological progress (productivity)
2. Population growth
3. Capital accumulation
D. Phases of the business cycle
1. A recession is a period where real GDP falls.
2. The trough is when real GDP stops declining.
3. An expansion is a period where real GDP rises.
4. The peak is when real GDP stops increasing.
E. The performance of key economic variables over the business cycle
1. Employment is procyclical. (It moves in the same direction as real
GDP.)
2. Unemployment is countercyclical. (It moves in the opposite direction
of output.)
3. The inflation rate is modestly procyclical.
4. The nominal interest rate is modestly procyclical.
5. The real interest rate (nominal interest rate minus the expected
inflation rate) is procyclical.
6. The real money supply (the money supply divided by prices) is
procyclical.
7. The real wage rate (the wage rate divided by prices) is procyclical.
F. Five core macroeconomic principles
1. The long-run growth rate of output depends on the growth rates of
labor, capital, and technology.
2. In the long run, there is no tradeoff between output and inflation.
3. In the short run, there exists a tradeoff between output and
inflation.
4. Peoples expectations of the future are formed rationally. (rational
expectations)
5. Monetary policymakers should follow clear procedures and not
administer onetime shocks to the economy.