Slide 1

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 Chapter 3 Slide 2

Probability
3-1 Overview
3-2 Fundamentals
3-3 Addition Rule
3-4 Multiplication Rule: Basics
3-5 Multiplication Rule: Complements and Conditional Probability
3-6 Probabilities Through Simulations
3-7 Counting

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 Slide 3

Section 3-1 & 3-2

Overview & Fundamentals

Created by Tom Wegleitner, Centreville, Virginia

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 Overview Slide 4

Rare Event Rule for Inferential Statistics:

If, under a given assumption (such as a lottery being

fair), the probability of a particular observed event
(such as five consecutive lottery wins) is extremely
small, we conclude that the assumption is probably
not correct.

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 Definitions Slide 5

 Event
Any collection of results or outcomes of a
procedure.
 Simple Event
An outcome or an event that cannot be further
broken down into simpler components.
 Sample Space
Consists of all possible simple events. That is,
the sample space consists of all outcomes that
cannot be broken down any further.

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 Notation for Slide 6

Probabilities

P - denotes a probability.
A, B, and C - denote specific events.
P (A) - denotes the probability of
event A occurring.

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 Basic Rules for Slide 7
Computing Probability
Rule 1: Relative Frequency Approximation of Probability
Conduct (or observe) a procedure a large number of times,
and count the number of times event A actually occurs.
Based on these actual results, P(A) is estimated as follows:

P(A) = number of times A occurred

number of times trial was repeated

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 Basic Rules for Slide 8
Computing Probability
Rule 2: Classical Approach to Probability (Requires
Equally Likely Outcomes)
Assume that a given procedure has n different simple events
and that each of those simple events has an equal chance of
occurring. If event A can occur in s of these n ways, then

P(A) = s = number of ways A can occur

n number of different simple
events
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 Basic Rules for Slide 9
Computing Probability

Rule 3: Subjective Probabilities

P(A), the probability of event A, is found by
simply guessing or estimating its value
based on knowledge of the relevant
circumstances.

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 Law of Slide 10

Large Numbers

As a procedure is repeated again and

again, the relative frequency probability
(from Rule 1) of an event tends to
approach the actual probability.

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 Example Slide 11

Roulette You plan to bet on number 13 on the next spin

of a roulette wheel. What is the probability that you will
lose?
Solution A roulette wheel has 38 different slots, only
one of which is the number 13. A roulette wheel is
designed so that the 38 slots are equally likely. Among
these 38 slots, there are 37 that result in a loss.
Because the sample space includes equally likely
outcomes, we use the classical approach (Rule 2) to get

37
P(loss) =
38

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 Probability Limits Slide 12

 The probability of an impossible event is 0.

 The probability of an event that is certain to occur is 1.

 0  P(A)  1 for any event A.

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 Possible Values for Slide 13

Probabilities

Figure 3-2

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 Definition Slide 14

The complement of event A, denoted by

A, consists of all outcomes in which the
event A does not occur.

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 Example Slide 15

Birth Genders In reality, more boys are born than

girls. In one typical group, there are 205 newborn
babies, 105 of whom are boys. If one baby is
randomly selected from the group, what is the
probability that the baby is not a boy?

Solution Because 105 of the 205 babies are boys, it follows that
100 of them are girls, so

100
P(not selecting a boy) = P(boy) = P(girl)   0.488
205

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 Rounding Off Slide 16

Probabilities

When expressing the value of a probability,

either give the exact fraction or decimal or
round off final decimal results to three
significant digits. (Suggestion: When the
probability is not a simple fraction such as 2/3
or 5/9, express it as a decimal so that the
number can be better understood.)

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 Definitions Slide 17

 The actual odds against event A occurring are the ratio

P(A)/P(A), usually expressed in the form of a:b (or “a
to b”), where a and b are integers having no common
factors.

 The actual odds in favor event A occurring are the

reciprocal of the actual odds against the event. If the
odds against A are a:b, then the odds in favor of A are
b:a.

 The payoff odds against event A represent the ratio of

the net profit (if you win) to the amount bet.

payoff odds against event A = (net profit) : (amount bet)

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 Recap Slide 18

In this section we have discussed:

 Rare event rule for inferential statistics.
 Probability rules.
 Law of large numbers.
 Complementary events.
 Rounding off probabilities.
 Odds.

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 Slide 19

Section 3-3
Addition Rule

Created by Tom Wegleitner, Centreville, Virginia

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 Definition Slide 20

Compound Event

Any event combining 2 or more simple events

Notation
P(A or B) = P (event A occurs or
event B occurs or they both
occur)

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 General Rule for a
Slide 21
Compound Event

When finding the probability that event A

occurs or event B occurs, find the total
number of ways A can occur and the
number of ways B can occur, but find the
total in such a way that no outcome is
counted more than once.

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 Compound Event Slide 22

Formal Addition Rule

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)

where P(A and B) denotes the probability that A

and B both occur at the same time as an outcome in a
trial or procedure.

Intuitive Addition Rule

To find P(A or B), find the sum of the number of
ways event A can occur and the number of ways event B
can occur, adding in such a way that every outcome is
counted only once. P(A or B) is equal to that sum,
divided by the total number of outcomes. In the sample
space.
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 Definition Slide 23

Events A and B are disjoint (or mutually

exclusive) if they cannot both occur
together.

Figures 3-4 and 3-5

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Applying the Addition Rule Slide 24

Figure 3-6
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 Example Slide 25

Titanic Passengers
Men Women Boys Girls Totals
Survived 332 318 29 27 706
Died 1360 104 35 18 1517
Total 1692 422 64 56 2223

Find the probability of randomly selecting a man or a boy.

Adapted from Exercises 9 thru 12

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 Example Slide 26

Men Women Boys Girls Totals

Survived 332 318 29 27 706
Died 1360 104 35 18 1517
Total 1692 422 64 56 2223

Find the probability of randomly selecting a man or a boy.

P(man or boy) = 1692 + 64 = 1756 = 0.790

2223 2223 2223

* Disjoint *
Adapted from Exercises 9 thru 12
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 Example Slide 27

Men Women Boys Girls Totals

Survived 332 318 29 27 706
Died 1360 104 35 18 1517
Total 1692 422 64 45 2223

Find the probability of randomly selecting a man or

someone who survived.

Adapted from Exercises 9 thru 12

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 Example Slide 28

Men Women Boys Girls Totals

Survived 332 318 29 27 706
Died 1360 104 35 18 1517
Total 1692 422 64 45 2223

Find the probability of randomly selecting a man or

someone who survived.
P(man or survivor) = 1692 + 706 – 332 = 2066
= 0.929 2223 2223 2223 2223

* NOT Disjoint *
Adapted from Exercises 9 thru 12
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 Complementary Slide 29

Events
P(A) and P(A)
are
mutually exclusive

All simple events are either in A or A.

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 Rules of Slide 30
Complementary Events

P(A) + P(A) = 1
P(A) = 1 – P(A)
P(A) = 1 – P(A)

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 Venn Diagram for the Slide 31
Complement of Event A

Figure 3-7

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 Slide 32
Recap
In this section we have discussed:

 Compound events.

 Formal addition rule.

 Intuitive addition rule.

 Disjoint Events.

 Complementary events.

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 Slide 33

Section 3-4
Multiplication Rule:
Basics
Created by Tom Wegleitner, Centreville, Virginia

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 Notation Slide 34

P(A and B) =
P(event A occurs in a first trial and
event B occurs in a second trial)

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 Tree Diagrams Slide 35

A tree diagram is a picture of the possible outcomes of a

procedure, shown as line segments emanating from one
starting point. These diagrams are helpful in counting the
number of possible outcomes if the number of possibilities is
not too large.

Figure 3-8 summarizes

the possible outcomes
for a true/false followed
by a multiple choice question.
Note that there are 10 possible combinations.
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 Example Slide 36

Genetics Experiment Mendel’s famous hybridization

experiments involved peas, like those shown in Figure 3-3
(below). If two of the peas shown in the figure are
randomly selected without replacement, find the
probability that the first selection has a green pod and the
second has a yellow pod.

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 Example - Solution Slide 37

First selection: P(green pod) = 8/14 (14 peas, 8 of which have

green pods)

Second selection: P(yellow pod) = 6/13 (13 peas remaining, 6

of which have yellow pods)

With P(first pea with green pod) = 8/14 and P(second pea with
yellow pod) = 6/13, we have

P( First pea with green pod and second pea with yellow pod) =
8 6
  0.264
14 13
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 Example Slide 38
Important Principle

The preceding example illustrates the

important principle that the probability for the
second event B should take into account the
fact that the first event A has already occurred.

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 Notation for Slide 39

Conditional Probability

P(B A) represents the probability of event B

occurring after it is assumed that event A has
already occurred (read B A as “B given A.”)

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 Definitions Slide 40

Independent Events
Two events A and B are independent if the
occurrence of one does not affect the probability of
the occurrence of the other. (Several events are
similarly independent if the occurrence of any does
not affect the occurrence of the others.) If A and B
are not independent, they are said to be dependent.

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 Formal Slide 41
Multiplication Rule

 P(A and B) = P(A) • P(B A)

 Note that if A and B are independent

events, P(B A) is really the same as
P(B)

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 Intuitive Slide 42

Multiplication Rule

When finding the probability that event A

occurs in one trial and B occurs in the next
trial, multiply the probability of event A by the
probability of event B, but be sure that the
probability of event B takes into account the
previous occurrence of event A.

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 Applying the Slide 43
Multiplication Rule

Figure 3-9

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 Small Samples from Slide 44
Large Populations

If a sample size is no more than 5% of

the size of the population, treat the
selections as being independent (even
if the selections are made without
replacement, so they are technically
dependent).

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 Summary of Fundamentals Slide 45

 In the addition rule, the word “or” on P(A or B)

suggests addition. Add P(A) and P(B), being
careful to add in such a way that every outcome is
counted only once.

 In the multiplication rule, the word “and” in P(A and B)

suggests multiplication. Multiply P(A) and P(B),
but be sure that the probability of event B takes
into account the previous occurrence of event A.

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 Recap Slide 46

In this section we have discussed:

 Notation for P(A and B).

 Tree diagrams.
 Notation for conditional probability.
 Independent events.
 Formal and intuitive multiplication rules.

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 Slide 47

Section 3-5
Multiplication Rule:
Complements and
Conditional Probability
Created by Tom Wegleitner, Centreville, Virginia

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 Complements: The Probability
Slide 48
of “At Least One”

 “At least one” is equivalent to “one or

more.”

 The complement of getting at least one

item of a particular type is that you get no
items of that type.

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 Example Slide 49

Gender of Children Find the probability of a couple

having at least 1 girl among 3 children. Assume that
boys and girls are equally likely and that the gender of
a child is independent of the gender of any brothers or
sisters.

Solution
Step 1: Use a symbol to represent the event desired.
In this case, let A = at least 1 of the 3
children is a girl.

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 Example Slide 50

Solution (cont)
Step 2: Identify the event that is the complement of A.
A = not getting at least 1 girl among 3
children
= all 3 children are boys
= boy and boy and boy
Step 3: Find the probability of the complement.
P(A) = P(boy and boy and boy)
1 1 1 1
   
2 2 2 8

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 Example Slide 51

Solution (cont)
Step 4: Find P(A) by evaluating 1 – P(A).

1 7
P ( A)  1  P ( A)  1  
8 8

Interpretation There is a 7/8 probability that if a

couple has 3 children, at least 1 of them is a girl.

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 Key Principle Slide 52

To find the probability of at least one of

something, calculate the probability of
none, then subtract that result from 1.
That is,

P(at least one) = 1 – P(none)

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 Definition Slide 53

A conditional probability of an event is a probability

obtained with the additional information that some other
event has already occurred. P(B A) denotes the
conditional probability of event B occurring, given that A
has already occurred, and it can be found by dividing the
probability of events A and B both occurring by the
probability of event A:

P(A and B)
P(B A) =
P(A)

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 Intuitive Approach to
Slide 54
Conditional Probability

The conditional probability of B given A can be

found by assuming that event A has occurred
and, working under that assumption,
calculating the probability that event B will
occur.

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 Testing for Independence Slide 55

In Section 3-4 we stated that events A and B are

independent if the occurrence of one does not
affect the probability of occurrence of the other.
This suggests the following test for independence:

Two events A and B are Two events A and B are

independent if dependent if

P(B A) = P(B) P(B A) = P(B)

or or
P(A and B) = P(A) P(B) P(A and B) = P(A) P(B)

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 Recap Slide 56

In this section we have discussed:

 Concept of “at least one.”

 Conditional probability.

 Intuitive approach to conditional probability.

 Testing for independence.

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 Slide 57

Section 3-6
Probabilities Through
Simulations
Created by Tom Wegleitner, Centreville, Virginia

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 Definition Slide 58

A simulation of a procedure is a
process that behaves the same way as
the procedure, so that similar results
are produced.

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 Simulation Example Slide 59

Gender Selection When testing techniques of gender

selection, medical researchers need to know
probability values of different outcomes, such as the
probability of getting at least 60 girls among 100
children. Assuming that male and female births are
equally likely, describe a simulation that results in
genders of 100 newborn babies.

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 Simulation Examples Slide 60

Solution 1:
 Flipping a fair coin where heads = female and

tails = male
H H T H T T H H H H

female female male female male male male female female female

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 Simulation Examples Slide 61
Solution 1:
 Flipping a fair coin where heads = female and
tails = male
H H T H T T H H H H

female female male female male male male female female female

Solution2:
 Generating 0’s and 1’s with a computer or calculator where 0 = male
1 = female
0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0

male male female male female female female male male male

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 Random Numbers Slide 62

In many experiments, random numbers are used in

the simulation naturally occurring events. Below are
some ways to generate random numbers.

 A random table of digits

 STATDISK
 Minitab
 Excel
 TI-83 Plus calculator

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 Recap Slide 63

In this section we have discussed:

 The definition of a simulation.

 How to create a simulation.
 Ways to generate random numbers.

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 Slide 64

Section 3-7
Counting

Created by Tom Wegleitner, Centreville, Virginia

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 Fundamental Counting Rule Slide 65

For a sequence of two events in which

the first event can occur m ways and
the second event can occur n ways,
the events together can occur a total of
m n ways.

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 Notation Slide 66

The factorial symbol ! Denotes the product of

decreasing positive whole numbers. For example,
4!  4  3  2  1  24.

By special definition, 0! = 1.

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 Factorial Rule Slide 67

A collection of n different items can be

arranged in order n! different ways.
(This factorial rule reflects the fact that
the first item may be selected in n
different ways, the second item may be
selected in n – 1 ways, and so on.)

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 Permutations Rule Slide 68

(when items are all different)

The number of permutations (or sequences)

of r items selected from n available items
(without replacement is

nPr = n!
(n - r)!

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 Permutation Rule: Slide 69

Conditions
 We must have a total of n different items
available. (This rule does not apply if
some items are identical to others.)

 We must select r of the n items (without

replacement.)

 We must consider rearrangements of the

same items to be different sequences.

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 Permutations Rule Slide 70

( when some items are identical to others )

If there are n items with n1 alike, n2 alike, .

. . nk alike, the number of permutations of
all n items is

n!
n1! . n2! .. . . . . . . nk!

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 Combinations Rule Slide 71

The number of combinations of r items

selected from n different items is

n!
nCr = (n - r )! r!

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 Combinations Rule: Slide 72

Conditions
 We must have a total of n different items
available.

 We must select r of the n items (without

replacement.)

 We must consider rearrangements of the

same items to be the same. (The
combination ABC is the same as CBA.)

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 Permutations versus Slide 73

Combinations

When different orderings of the same items

are to be counted separately, we have a
permutation problem, but when different
orderings are not to be counted separately,
we have a combination problem.

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 Recap Slide 74

In this section we have discussed:

 The fundamental counting rule.

 The factorial rule.

 The permutations rule (when items are all

different.)

 The permutations rule (when some items are

identical to others.)

 The combinations rule.

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