A Very Brief and Shallow Introduction to:

Chaos Theory and Fractals

Possible Titles:
Chaos for Dummies
Learn Chaos in 1 hour
All you need to know about Chaos
Make your Pick Class

CEE6430. LECTURE#18: Chaos

and Fractals
 Topics

• Chaos Theory – What is it really?

Background, Little Theory and Examples

• Fractals – What is it really?

Background and History

• Relevance of Chaos Theory and Fractals to Hydrologic

applications

CEE6430. LECTURE#18: Chaos

and Fractals
 Chaos Theory

• Dictionary Meaning of Chaos – “a state of things in which

chance is supreme; especially : the confused unorganized state of
primordial matter before the creation of distinct forms” (Webster).
• Chaos Theory represents a big jump from the way we have thought
in the past – a paradigm shift.
• Traditional notion of chaos – unorganized, disorderly, random etc.
• But Chaos Theory has nothing do with the traditional notion per se
• On the contrary, it actually tells you that not all that ‘chaos’ you see
is due to chance, or random or caused by unknown factors
• Oxymoron term coined “Deterministic Randomness” (yeah, it’s an
oxymoron if we think of chaos in the conventional sense)

CEE6430. LECTURE#18: Chaos

and Fractals
 The Debate…

• Classical and Modern notions of Determinism – Classical

Mechanics Vs. Quantum Mechanics. Sir Isaac Newton initiated
Classical Mechanics that lasted (still is) 300 years.
• Not everything can be observed or predicted perfectly or in a
deterministic (very accurate) fashion.
• Examples: At atomic scale, everything gets probabilistic (Throwing
a ball and an atom – motion is wave-like De-Broglie’s motion)
• Uncertainties in various sources causes our observations and
predictions to behave randomly.
• But then Chaos Theory comes in and bridges the gap

Not all the randomness we see is really due to chance, it could well be
due to ‘deterministic’ factors
Am I making sense??

CEE6430. LECTURE#18: Chaos

and Fractals
 Let’s get Graphic here….
Chaos in the Real world:
The Population graph looks ‘chaotic’
– or very random in fluctuating
But this ‘randomness’ could be
caused by deterministic factors of
War and Peace repeating in cycles

The Hénon map is given by:

x(t) = a + b * y – x(t-1)^2
y(t) = x(t) ; use a=1.4, b=0.3.

Figure A was due to F(x), you would

You can do this yourself if have thought the fluctuations to be
you don’t believe me random
CEE6430. LECTURE#18: Chaos
and Fractals
 So Chaos isn’t that Chaotic After all…hmm

• Chaos Theory – It’s about the deterministic factors (non-

linear relationships) that cause things to look random
• A relevant topic – Fractals – about scales - we’ll address
later.

• Lot of History and Research Being done – HUGE

• But in general – A guy called Benoit Mandelbrot is
credited with advancing Fractals and Edward Lorenz with
formalising Chaos Theory in Modern times.

CEE6430. LECTURE#18: Chaos

and Fractals
 Chaos Theory – The (Shallowest)
Introduction
• A unique property that define a ‘Chaotic System’
• Sensitivity to initial conditions – causing large divergence
in the prediction. But this divergence is not infinite, it
oscillates within bounds.
• Discovered by Ed Lorenz in Weather Modeling

CEE6430. LECTURE#18: Chaos

and Fractals
 Contd.
• Other Analogies – Think about the 100m sprint at the Olympics. Sprinters all
start the same (supposedly the same initial conditions and they are all the
best). Yet, one tiny change (like a draught of air, failing to hear/respond the
whistle on time can cost them a medal.
• Watershed Initial condition – AMC.
• Or life itself – more chaotic. One tiny decision you take today (apparently
tiny), you have no idea where it might take you in the long after an
accumulation of the triggering effects.

• Butterfly Effect: The flapping of a single butterfly's wing today produces a tiny change in the
state of the atmosphere. Over a period of time, what the atmosphere actually does diverges from
what it would have done. So, in a month's time, a tornado that would have devastated the
Indonesian coast doesn't happen. Or maybe one that wasn't going to happen, does. (Ian Stewart,
Does God Play Dice? The Mathematics of Chaos, pg. 141)
• Recall the earlier example of Xt where we found Xt to be ‘chaotic’ or
sensitive to c around the value of -1.9

CEE6430. LECTURE#18: Chaos

and Fractals
On to Fractals – Now let’s consider
Scale

It’s all about scales and its

invariance (not just space
though – can also time
And self-organized similarity
(scale invariance) a rather
new term coined these days
- Another manifestation of
Chaos theory in the form of
scales
CEE6430. LECTURE#18: Chaos
and Fractals
 How Fractals were discovered

• An employee of IBM, Benoit Mandelbrot was a mathematician

studying this self-similarity. One of the areas he was studying was
cotton price fluctuations. No matter how the data on cotton prices
was analyzed, the results did not fit the normal distribution.
Mandelbrot eventually obtained all of the available data on cotton
prices, dating back to 1900. When he analyzed the data with IBM's
computers, he noticed an astonishing fact:
The numbers that produced aberrations from the point of view of
normal distribution produced symmetry from the point of view of
scaling. Each particular price change was random and
unpredictable. But the sequence of changes was independent on
scale: curves for daily price changes and monthly price changes
matched perfectly. Incredibly, analyzed Mandelbrot's way, the
degree of variation had remained constant over a tumultuous sixty-
year period that saw two World Wars and a depression. (James
Gleick, Chaos - Making a New Science, pg. 86)
CEE6430. LECTURE#18: Chaos
and Fractals
 Contd.

• Recall the Population graph –

• The theory that describes the repeating
nature is however called “Chaos Theory”.
• More examples of Fractals – in real life
• Look at Clouds and Mountains
• Fractal geometry Vs Euclidean Geometry
– the debate. Fractals allow us to be more
realistic
CEE6430. LECTURE#18: Chaos
and Fractals
 The Pioneers

CEE6430. LECTURE#18: Chaos

and Fractals
 Coast of England Problem

• How small is small to define ‘precision’

to measure an entity (say length, area,
volume)?
• If precision increases, and the
measurements are done again, then
will new measurements go on
increasing indefinitely ? Say 50 years
ago we could measure length upto 1
micron. Now we have a device to
measure up 1 nanometer. So, if we
measured the coast of England by the
ever increasingly precise measuring
Mandelbrot asked the same
instrument will the coast length
increase indefinitely? question: What is the coast of
• Very similar to the Zeno’s paradox we
England? For a specific
discussed in first class. The rabbit and reason.
the hare starting off a race.

CEE6430. LECTURE#18: Chaos

and Fractals
Real-life examples of Fractals (in space)

Are there any straight lines, boxes, rectangles based on Euclidean

geometry?
Yet, these shapes seem to be repeating – Nature is more fractal and
we humans have traditionally tried to model it in our paradigms of
‘straight lines’ and adding too much order
CEE6430. LECTURE#18: Chaos
and Fractals
River Drainage Network – Very Fractal

CEE6430. LECTURE#18: Chaos

and Fractals
 Now the Cauliflower Example

• Do it in Class
• How is a Cauliflower an example of a fractal?

CEE6430. LECTURE#18: Chaos

and Fractals
 Okay, all this Chaos and Fractals, but so
what for Hydrosciences?
• Discussion – How can we use chaos theory and fractals to better
understand hydrological sciences, do better prediction, estimation
forecasting ?
• Opportunities may be endless but yet to be fulfilled.
• Chaos Theory can help ‘tame’ complexity, uncertainty (that we think
as random) and make them more ‘modelable’ (less uncertain)
• Spatial patterns and Temporal patterns can be better predicted by
looking at the fractal nature – rainfall is fractal is space (if clouds
are), so its spatial distribution can be modeled ‘better’.
• Watershed’s response to rainfall – initial conditions and chaos.
• Remember – Chaos Theory is ‘physical’ based on logic
(deterministic equations) unlike Stochastic Theory.

CEE6430. LECTURE#18: Chaos

and Fractals
 HW#7
• Go Home and think tonight of any phenomenon that you
previously thought as ‘random’ and unpredictable, but
now appearing chaotic after this class.
• Write up your feelings (briefly) on that phenomenon (it
can be anything actually) and bring to class.
• This should be Thanksgiving Fun!!

CEE6430. LECTURE#18: Chaos

and Fractals