Climate Change: A Challenge

to Local Legislators

Ben S. Malayang III

Silliman University
 “Unequivocal Evidence” of a
Changing Global Climate

IPCC, 2007
IPCC, 2007
IPCC, 2007
IPCC, 2007
• In the past 100 years the
earth has warmed 0.700C

• Atmospheric concentrations
of CO22 are increasing at 1.9
ppm each year. It reached
379 ppm in 2005

• Between 2000 and 2005 an

average of 26 Gt of CO22 was
released into the atmosphere
each year

Rising CO2 emissions

are pushing up stocks &
is raising global
temperatures

UN, HDR, 2008

Risks Linked to Climate Change
• Increased average surface temperature
• Increased frequency & severity of typhoons
& weather disturbances
• Altered patterns (& regularity) of rainfall &
drought events (e.g., ENSO patterns)
• Sea level rise (SLR)
• Salt Water Intrusion (SWI)
• Acidification of Oceans
• Loss of biodiversity
• Altered political & social movements &
human-environment dynamics
The Global carbon account
Challenge…

• Keep Temperature Rise to below “Dangerous”

Level (i.e., keeping to within 2°C rise) by
keeping to a 21st Century carbon budget

• Defining a sustainable emission’s pathway

• Weaken the inertia– the case for adaptation

UN, HDR, 2008

The 21st Century carbon budget is set for
early expiry

UN, HDR, 2008

The 21st Century carbon budget
is set at 1,456 Gt CO2 to avoid
“dangerous” temperature
rise (i.e., to avoid inducing
“dangerous” scale of climate
change) UN, HDR, 2008
 CC Events, Risks, Adaptation
EVENTS RISKS ADAPTATION MEASURES

Sea Level Flooding of • Infra (dikes)

Rise coastal • Relocation/redesign of lowland agriculture
zones & • Relocation/redesign of low communities
lowlands
Salt Water Increased • Infra (new water supply systems)
Intrusion salinity of • Relocation/redesign of crop systems
water tables • Address health risks
Acidification Loss of • More investments on ocean pH control (if
of Oceans marine this is even possible or practical)
productivity • More investments on alternative sources
of ocean-sourced calcium & protein
 EVENTS RISKS ADAPTATION MEASURES

Altered More • More investments on flood control & on

climate frequent & drought response
patterns more severe • More investments on disaster responses
atmospheric
• More investments on ANR R&D
events
Biodiversity Decline & • More investments on conservation (in situ
Loss erosion of & ex situ)
genetic base • More investments on pest/disease control
• More investments on alternative food
sources & sources of pharmaceuticals
Altered H-E Increased • Redesign & enforce new tenure systems
dynamics competition • Adapt new ANR-based social & political
for ANR policies & institutions
 Complicating Factors
• Climate Change is Long-Term. The momentum of climate
change is likely to linger for over 1-2 hundred years (if not
more); e.g., the “albedo effect” on oceans

• Climate Change is Inter-Generational. Most political leaders

(especially local ones who need to lead adaptation efforts)
need to fully understand the seriousness of what’s before us;
their “timeframes of accountability” (i.e., terms) are shorter
than the “timeframes of needed action”

• Climate Change has Deep Socio-Economic Roots. Our

society today seems not willing to address two exogenous
drivers of climate change: high & rapid population growth, and
the need to do away with the most serious (& widespread)
contributor to climate change, which is large-scale C-based
manufacturing & lifestyles (e.g., widespread & expanding use
of jet engines)
Charting a course away from a
dangerous climate change situation
The sustainable emissions pathway is as follows;

– The world – carbon emission cuts of 50 percent by

2050 with a peak by 2020

– Developed countries – carbon emission cuts of 80

percent by 2050

– Developing countries – carbon emission cuts of 20

percent by 2050

… with respect to 1990 UN, HDR, 2008

Halving emissions by 2050 could avoid
dangerous climate change

UN, HDR, 2008

Burt some people walk
more lightly than others
• The UK (population 60 million)
emits more CO2 than Egypt,
Nigeria, Pakistan and Vietnam
(total population 472 million)

• The state of Texas (population

23 million) has a deeper
footprint than the whole sub-
Saharan Africa (720 million
people)

• The 19 million people living in

New York have a deeper
footprint than the 766 million
people living in the 50 least
developed countries

The distribution of current

emissions points to an inverse
relationship between climate
change vulnerability and UN, HDR, 2008
responsibility
 How many planets?
• The 21st century carbon budget (of 1,456 Gt
CO2) means limiting total global emissions to
only around 14.5 Gt CO2 per year

• But total CO2 emissions in 2004 was 29 Gt CO2

• If every person living in the developing world

would have the same carbon footprint than an
average person in the US or Canada, we would
need the equivalent to nine planets to absorb
the excess of budgeted CO2 UN, HDR, 2008
 Steven Chu interview, Newsweek
(20th Issue, as cited in Avila, B. Phil Star, Apr 29, p. 16)

Right now, the climate scientists feel that if all humans shut off
carbon emissions today, it will still glide up by 1 degree
centigrade. In the ‘Business-as-usual’ scenarios, Nicholas Stern
says there’s a 50% chance we may go up 5 degrees centigrade.
We know what earth was like 5-6 degrees centigrade colder. That
was called the Ice Ages.

Imagine a world 5 degrees (centigrade) warmer. The desert lines

would be dramatically changed. The West is projected to be in
drought conditions. And certain tipping points might be triggered.
We can adapt to 1 or 2 degrees. More than that, there is no
adaptation strategy… At that point, no matter what humans do,
it’s out of our control…

Then there is the matter of thawing tundras…

 And so, the Question…

Is the world -- and the Philippines --

ready to properly respond to climate
change, to ensure humanity’s
survival or keep life viable on our
planet?
 4 Reasons Why We May Not Be

1. We’re not presently building up the needed

resources to meet the costs to adequately
address the risks associated with climate change
2. The costs would seem too high for the present
economic, financial & socio-political capabilities
of many nations, including the Philippines
3. There appears to be no build up of political will to
address the risks
4. We are “not getting it”.. and this -- to me -- is the
more serious problem!
 Why We’re Not “Getting It”
We think of climate change, but…

• Often fail to appreciate the “interconnections” of myriad

human activities that have caused & intensified it

• Fail to see how it is a larger problem caused by a

“progression” of human failures to correct our behavior

• Fail to appreciate the “scale” of its impacts on our localities

• Deny its “basic historical anchors”

 Interconnections
Global Warming Economy

Financial Systems
Macrobiotic Populations

Microbiotic Populations Socio-Political Systems

Macro- & Micro-climates Human Conditions

Geochemical Conditions
Human Health

Human Actions Human Life & Security

• Phil will need $50B/yr to lessen negative CC impacts on agriculture, poor

• Climate change displacements, migration & refugees
• Conflicts & cultural dilemmas
• Urgency of technology fixes; but these costs a lot
 Progression & Scale

“Geo-Calamity”
(Human disasters turning into a
disaster for to the planet; globalization
of human disasters)

“Anthro-Calamity”
(Environmental disasters becoming
human disasters)

“Eco-Calamity”
(Loss of environmental assets
turning into Environmental disasters)

t, s
 Historical Anchors
1. Human Civilization: the “C-Civilization”
(Carbon Civilization)

2. Economic Systems powered by

Carbon drivers

3. Value Systems shaped by Carbon-use

4. A Carbon-based world-view
 The Legislative Imperative

• Adopt local ordinances that focus on Climate Change-

related risks to local communities, recognizing that such
risks are the resulting outcomes of complex local issues;
e.g.,

• Carbon emissions per capita & by total population

• Carbon emissions of industries & lifestyles
• Recommendation: Enact a comprehensive Local
Environment Code promoting localized sustainable
development
• Local Environment Code to focus on what local
changes on human activities are needed to reduce our
per capita & collective Carbon Footprints; e.g.,

• Promote more use of cleaner energy sources

for homes, transportation & industries
• Reduce carbon-emitting activities like burning
litter/garbage
• Segregate wastes & encourage recycling
• Local Environment Code to also seek to minimize local
environment & development risks; e.g.,

• Expand investments on adaptation measures, e.g.,

 Dikes & levees in vulnerable areas
 Relocating cropping into higher grounds
 Zoning housing outside flood-prone areas
 Deepen & lengthen riverbank greenbelts
 Improving public health capabilities
• Expand investments on disaster management
• Expand investments on conservation of natural
resources especially water, forests, fisheries
Any measure, however modest, if done right and in a
determined and sincere manner, will mean a lot to
better prepare and protect our local communities from
the risks created by climate change.

We need speedy action, but also correct action,

because “speed is irrelevant if you’re going in the
wrong direction.” (Gandhi)

Thank you.