Lesson 1 Input Output Analysis
Lesson 1 Input Output Analysis
1
Lesson 1: Emerging and Development
of Input-Output Analysis
Xiuli Liu
2015.9.16
Outline
• Self Introduction
• The Founder of IO
• The Development of IO
• The Application of IO
• Some Examples
• Academic Organizations of IO
• Exercises
3
Self-introduction
Management
Highest
Name Xiuli Liu PhD degree Major Science and
Education
Engineering
AMSS,
Graduate Chinese Marital
Married Birthday 1975-03
School Academy of Status
Sciences
xiuli.liu@amss
Cell Phone 15810683845 Office Tel 010-82541281 E-mail1
.ac.cn
4
WORK EXPERIENCE
2010.3- Academy of Mathematics and System Science,
Associate Professor
Onward Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
2012.7-
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, USA Senior Visiting Scholar
2013.1
2008.4-
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, USA Visiting Scholar
2009.1
2005.2-
Siemens Company, Beijing, China Engineer
2007.2
2004.7-
Machinery information Institute, Beijing, China Assistant Professor
2005.1
5
Research Interests
6
MAJOR ACADEMIC POSITION
[1]Secretary vice general, executive member of China Input-Output Association (2010-2016)
7
Selected Publications
• Xiuli Liu,Some Advance of Input-Output Analysis-Theory and Practice in China, Monograph, VDM
published,Germany, 2009.7
• Liu Xiuli, Chen Xikang, Methods for approximating shadow price of water in China, Economic Systems
Research, Vol(20), No.2, 2008, pp.173-185.
• Liu Xiuli, Chen Xikang, Wang Shouyang, Evaluating and Predicting Shadow Prices of Water Resources in
China and Its Nine Major River Basins, Water Resource Management, 2009, 23, pp.1467-1478.
• Xiuli Liu, Shouyang Wang, Geoffrey J. D. Hewings,Evaluation on the impacts of the implementation of
building energy efficiency standards on Chinese economic system and environment, Energy and Buildings,
2009, Vol.41, No.10, 2009, pp.1084-1090.
• Liu Xiuli & Chen Xikang, The Non-linear Important Coefficients Input-Holding-Output Model, International
Journal of Applied Economics and Econometrics, 2005, Vol.13, No.3, pp.429-438
• Liu Xiuli, CPE-IHO Model to Calculate the Direct, Complete and Conjunct Impact of Unfair Importation on
Import Country’s Economy, International Journal of Applied Economics and Econometrics, 2006, Vol. 14,
No.1, pp.35-44.
• Xiuli Liu, By Sector Water Consumption and Related Economy Analysis Integrated Model and Its Application
in Hai River Basin, China, Journal of Water Resource and Protection, 2012, 4(5), 264-276.
• Xiuli Liu, A grey neural network and input-output combined forecasting model and its application in primary
energy related CO2 emissions estimation by sector in China, Energy Procedia, 2013, Volume 36, 815-824.
• Xiuli Liu, Geoffrey Hewings, Xikang Chen, Shouyang Wang, A Factor Decomposing Model on Water Use
Efficiency at Sector Level and Its Application in Beijing (SCI), Journal of Systems Science and Complexity,
2015.9 Accepted, Forthcoming
• Xiuli Liu, A Way to Close Green Gap by Producers: Choosing Wastes Treatment Way and Pricing Green
Products (SCI), Journal of Residuals Science & Technology, 2015.8 Accepted, Forthcoming
8
Students
Name Email Student No. Institute Major
KITTISACK PHOUTTHAVONG [email protected] 2015B8012807399 西双版纳热带植物园 生态学
9
Please tell us
• Your name?
• Your country?
• Your education background?
• Have you learned some courses related with
economics?
• In 2-3 minutes
10
• Input-output analysis is a tool to describe the
economic system.
How to describe the economic system?
12
Industrial Classification
• A business is classified into an industry based on its primary
economic activity. Currently, businesses are grouped or
classified into industries according to the Standard Industrial
Classification (SIC) system.
• Excel Example.
International Standard Industrial
Classification is a United Nations system
for classifying economic data.
Examples:
Industries purchase from other industries
Industries sell to other industries
Industries sell outside the local economy
Industries buy outside the local economy
Industries pay their employee
Industries pay taxes
14
Basic Input-Output Logic
• The IO model is centered on the idea of inter-industry transactions:
–Industries use the products of other industries to produce their own
products.
– For example -automobile producers use steel, glass, rubber, and plastic
products to produce automobiles.
– Outputs from one industry become inputs to another.
– When you buy a car, you affect the demand for glass, plastic, steel, etc.
Electricity
Labor
……
15
The Input-Output concept
labour Imports
Semi output
Raw finished
materials products
Final
Basis of approach is that production of an OUTPUT requires
Consumption
INPUTS .
The input- output linkages are recorded in a “transactions” or
“flows” matrix which records all payments TO and FROM a sector
within a year. Agri. Manu. Services
Agriculture 200 200 0
Manufacturing 200 800 300
Services 0 200 100
Works on basis of double-entry book keeping, so that Gross
Outputs must equate to Gross Inputs.
16
Adapted from Regional and Local Economics
(RALE) Lecture slides – Lecture 2b
Example of one input–output table
Inputs purchased by Intemediate Final demand sectors
demand
Agri. Manu. Services H’hold Gov. Ex Invest Gross
s por output
ts
Output produced
by
Agriculture 200 200 0 400 200 250 100 50 1000
Manufacturing 200 800 300 1300 300 200 250 -50 2000
Services 0 200 100 300 200 200 300 0 1000
Intermediate 400 1200 400 2000 700 650 650 0 4000
Inputs
Depreciation of
50 100 50
Fixed Capital
Compensation of
400 350 300
Employees
Net Taxes on
Production and
150 350 250
Operating
Surplus
Gross inputs 1000 2000 1000
17 17
What is input-output analysis
18
Usefulness
• To measure the economic impacts of events as well as public investments or
programs (IMPLAN and RIMSII).
19
Input-output Review
22
Research Aim
23
Methods and Thoughts
Quantitative
Econometric
Method Direct
Impacts
Static
Comparison
Indirect
Impacts
Input-output
Model
Fig.2 Main economic and environmental respects that are affected by the
implementation of BEES in China from the view of input-output analysis
25
8.00%
5.81%
6.00% 4.52%
3.21%
4.00% 3.00%
2.00%
Direct Impact Degree
0.00%
-2.00% CEC CEE CIU CII CDE SDE NOE SER QSW
-1.07% -0.46% -0.15%
-1.48% -2.46% -0.73% -0.21%
-4.00% -2.57% -3.32%
-3.66% -3.36%
-6.00% -4.59%
-8.00%
-7.96%
-10.00%
-12.00% -11.00%
k=1 k=2
0.0126
0.0105
0.0084
0.0063
0.0042
0.0021
0
-0.0021 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34
-0.0042
-0.0063
-0.0084
-0.0105
-0.0126
-0.0147
k=1 k=2
0.020% 0.0179%
0.015%
0.010%
0.0038%
0.005% 0.0025%
0.000%
CTO CVA
k=1 k=2
28
Example 2: Xiuli Liu, A Method to Visualize the Skeleton Industrial
Structure Evolution Rule and its Application in China, Japan and USA,
Journal of economic structures, 2015, forthcoming
7 1 17
16 12 15
9 5 18
5 18 17
10 8 16
1 14
4 9 13 9 10
1
17 12
2 14
5
1 7 5 7 18 16
30
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Other Interesting Potential Economic Impact
Studies
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Some published papers with IO method
• Interregional and regional input-output analysis: a model of a space-economy
• W Isard - The review of Economics and Statistics, 1951 - JSTOR
• I FOR more than four decades the construc-tion of a general location theory has been a
stimulating challenge to spatial theorists. Despite the productive efforts of Weber, Englander,
Predohl, Ohlin, Palander, Hoover, Losch, and others, the goals of spinning a theoretical ...
• 被引用次数:489
• Using input-output analysis to estimate economy-wide discharges
• LB Lave - Environmental Science & Technology, 1995 - ACS Publications
• The SETAC method employed by Hocking (Si would consider only one or two of the major
direct suppliers at each stage of production (shown in bold), whereas the economic input-
output life cycle assessment considers a larger universe of direct suppliers at each stage, ...
• 被引用次数:309
• Input-output analysis and tourism impact studies
• JE Fletcher - Annals of tourism research, 1989 - Elsevier
• Abstract Input-output analysis is now widely used to examine the economic impact of
tourism. The aim of this article is to demonstrate the usefulness of this analysis to study the
economic impact of tourism. It looks at the practical applications of this method of analysis ...
• 被引用次数:338
• The stability of interregional trading patterns and input-output analysis
• LN Moses - The American Economic Review, 1955 - JSTOR
• Economists have long been aware that the levels of income, employment, and output of
regions which trade with one another are interrelated. However, it is only in relatively recent
times that improvements in data as well as statistical and analytical techniques have ...
• 被引用次数:353
• Primary energy and greenhouse gases embodied in Australian final consumption: an input–output analysis
• M Lenzen - Energy policy, 1998 - Elsevier
• Input–output modeling of primary energy and greenhouse gas embodiments in goods and
services is a useful technique for designing greenhouse gas abatement policies. The
present paper describes direct and indirect primary energy and greenhouse gas ...
• 被引用次数:318
33
Some published papers with IO method
• The Information Economy: Definition and Measurement.
• MU Porat - 1977 - ERIC
• ... are analyzed over a 120-year span. This volume contains the executive summary and the major
findings of the study. It defines information and includes a formal set of National Income and
Product Accounts for the primary and secondary information sectors, with input-output ...
• 被引用次数:1633
34
Some published papers with IO method
• Allocating ecological footprints to final consumption categories with input–output analysis
• T Wiedmann, J Minx, J Barrett, M Wackernagel - Ecological Economics, 2006 - Elsevier
• We present and discuss a method that allows the disaggregation of national Ecological
Footprints by economic sector, detailed final demand category, sub-national area or socio-
economic group. This is done by combining existing National Footprint Accounts with ...
• 被引用次数:273 相关文章 所有 10 个版本
His theories and methods of Input-Output analysis earned him the Nobel prize
in Economics in 1973.
• In 1944, He cooperated with the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and compiled the
1939 input-output table of the U.S..
• Around 1949, Leontief used the primitive computer systems available at the time at
Harvard to model data provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to divide the
U.S. economy into 500 sectors.
• The U.S. input-output table in1947 was compiled and cost about 1.5 million dollars.
• In 1961, Russia
• In 1971, China
• With this, the United Nations promoted input-output as a practical planning tool for
developing countries and has sponsored a standardized system of economic
accounts for constructing input-output tables.
• After 2000, more than 100 countries compiled IO tables and applied them.
• At present, only several countries with small territory and population in the world
have not yet applied IO tables.
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Academic Organization: IIOA
http://www.iioa.org/
• The International Input-Output Association (IIOA) is a scientific non-profit
membership organization founded in 1988. Its objective is the advancement of
knowledge in the field of input-output analysis, including improvements in basic
data, theoretical insights and modeling, and applications, both traditional and
novel, of input-output techniques.
• The IIOA grew out of an informal world-wide network of economists,
government officials, engineers and managers with interests in input-output
analysis.
Pre-Presidents and President of IIOA
Karen Planski Faye Duchin Jan Oosterhaven Geoffrey Hewings Eric Dietzenbacher
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IIOA Conferences
Time Location
23 23.-26.06.2015 Mexico City, Mexico
22 14. - 18.07.2014 Lisbon, Portugal
21 08. - 12.07.2013 Kitakyushu, Japan
20 25. - 29.06.2012 Bratislava, Slovakia
19 13. - 17.06.2011 Alexandria, USA
18 20. - 25.06.2010 Sydney, Australia
17 13. - 17.07.2009 Sao Paulo, Brazil
INT3 09. - 11.07.2008 Seville, Spain
16 02. - 06.07.2007 Istanbul, Turkey
INT2 26. - 28.07.2006 Sendai, Japan
15 27.06. - 01.07.2005 Beijing, China P.R.
INT1 02. - 04.09.2004 Brussels, Belgium
14 10. - 15.10.2002 Montréal, Canada
13 21. - 25.08.2000 University of Macerata, Italy
12 18. - 22.05.1998 New York University, USA
11 27.11. -01.12.1995 New Delhi, India
10 29.03. - 03.04.1993 Seville, Spain
09 04. - 09.09.1989 Keszthely, Hungary
08 28.07. - 02.08.1986 Sapporo, Japan
07 09. - 13.04.1979 Innsbruck, Austria
06 22. - 26.04.1974 Vienna , Austria
05 11. - 15.01.1971 Geneva, Switzerland
04 08. - 12.01.1968 Geneva, Switzerland
03 September 1961 Geneva, Switzerland
02 27.06. - 10.07.1954 Varenna , Italy 41
01 1950 Driebergen, The Netherlands
Journal
Time Loation
1 1988.10 Jiujiang, Jiangxi Xikang Chen
2 1991.10 Baotou, Inner Mongolia
3 1994.8 Yinchuan, Ningxia
4 1997.8 Changchun , Jilin
Qiang
5 2001.8 Xining, Qinghai
Li
6 2004.8 Kunming, Yunnan
7 2007.8 Nanjing, JIangsu
8 2010.8 Weihai, Shandong
9 2013.7 Guangzhou Xianchun Xu
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References Books
• Leontief, Input-output economics, 1986, Oxford University Press
• Ronald Miller and Peter Blair, Input-output analysis, Foundations and
Extensions, 2009, Cambridge University Press
• Macroeconomics: A Version Economics, Paul A. Samuelson, William D.
Nordhaus, 1989, McGraw-Hill
• Michael Sonis, Geoffrey Hewings, Tool Kits in Regional Science, Theory,
Models, and Estimation, 2009, Springer Press
• Thijs Ten Raa., The economics of input-output analysis, 2005, Cambridge
University Press
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The combination of your score
Score
Attendances 20
Performance on classes 20
Exercises 20
Final test 40 Finish a research report
Sum up 100
Course Class
Course Teacher Date Times
Number Location
Input-output
I51009Z Liu Xiuli S104 9.16-11.11 8
Analysis
46