Chapter 3 Sampling Distribution and Confidence Interval
Chapter 3 Sampling Distribution and Confidence Interval
DISTRIBUTIONS
& CONFIDENCE
INTERVAL
CHAPTER 3
BPF 3313 / BUM 2413
CONTENT
3.1 Sampling Distribution
3.2 Estimate, Estimation and Estimator
3.3 Confidence Interval for the mean μ
3.4 Confidence Interval for the Difference
between Two mean
3.5 Confidence Interval for the Proportion
3.6 Confidence Interval for the Difference
between Two Proportions
3.7 Confidence Interval for Variances and
Standard Deviations
3.8 Confidence Interval for Two Variances
and Standard Deviations
3.1 Sampling Distributions
OBJECTIVE
X
N n
for finite population
n N 1
If the population is normally distributed, the sampling distribution
is normal regardless of sample size.
2
By using the Central Limit Theorem, X ~ N ,
n
If the population distribution is not necessarily normal, and has
mean μ and standard deviation σ , then, for sufficiently large n,
the sampling distribution of X is approximately normal,
with mean X and standard deviation X
n
EXERCISE 3.1
1. At a college, the masses of the male
students can be modeled by a normal
distribution with mean mass 70kg and
standard deviation 5kg. Four male
students are chosen at random. Find the
probability that their mean mass is less
than 65kg.
12 2 2
X 1 X 2 ~ N 1 2 ,
n1 n2
12 2 2
X 1 X 2 ~ N 1 2 ,
n1 n2
– mean p, and
– standard deviation p 1 p
n
EXERCISE 3.1
3. It is known that 3% of frozen pies
delivered to a canteen are broken. What
is the probability that, on a morning
when 500 pies are delivered, 5% or
more are broken?
TIPS:
Use Normal Approximation to the Binomial distribution
OR
pˆ p
Z
Use p 1 p with continuity correction
1
2n
n
Sampling Distribution for
Difference Proportions
p1 1 p1 p2 1 p2
If pˆ1 ~ N p1 , and pˆ 2 ~ N p2 ,
n1 n 2
p 1 p1 p2 1 p2
ˆp1 pˆ 2 ~ N p1 p2 , 1
n1 n 2
p1 1 p1 p2 1 p2
pˆ1 pˆ 2 ~ N p1 p2 ,
n 1 n 2
Sufficient
–
Consistent
–
Estimations & Estimate
Estimation – Is the entire process of using an
estimator to produce an estimate of the
parameter
2 types of estimation
1. Point Estimate
• A single number used to estimate a population parameter
2. Interval Estimate
• A spread of values used to estimate a population
parameter
• The interval is usually written (a, b) where a and b are
known as confidence limit
• a – lower confidence limit
• b – upper confidence limit
Definitions
Confidence Interval
– Range of numbers that have a high probability of
containing the unknown parameter as an interior
point.
– By looking at the width of a confidence interval, we
can get a good sense of the estimator precision.
– Width = b – a
Confidence Coefficient
1
– The probability of correctly including the population
parameter being estimated in the interval that is
produced
Definitions
Level of Confidence
– The confidence coefficient expressed as a
percent ,
– Example: 1 100%
1 %
Definitions
OR
(1- α) 100% confidence interval for θ
X z , X z
2 n 2 n
s s s s
X z , X z X t , n 1 , X t , n 1
2 n 2 n 2 n 2 n
t- Distributions
OBJECTIVES
pq pq
p z , p z
2 n 2 n
NOTES:
Number of successes in a given sample size
Sample
proportion X
p and q 1 p
n
Sample size
where npˆ 5 and nqˆ 5
EXERCISE 3.5
1. 23 from 100 families in a village are poor. Find
the 99% confidence interval poorness rate for this
village.
2. A survey was undertaken of the use of the
internet by residents in a large city and it was
discovered that in a random sample of 150
residents, 45 logged on to the internet at least
once a day. Calculate an approximate 90%
confidence interval for p, the proportion of
residents in the city that log on to the internet at
least once a day.
3. Given p 0.3590 . What sample size is needed
to obtain a 95% confidence interval for p with
width ± 0.08.
EXERCISE 3.5
4. A researcher whishes to estimate, with 90%
confidence, the proportion of people who own a
home computer. A previous study shows that 40%
of those interviewed had a computer at home. The
researcher whishes to be accurate within 5% of the
true proportion. Find the minimum sample size
necessary.
5. A manufacturer wants to assess the proportion of
defective items in a large batch produce by a
particular machine. He tests a random sample of
300 items and finds that 45 items are defective. If
200 such tests are performed and a 95%
confidence interval calculated for each, what is the
probability that more than 194 of the confidence
intervals cover the true proportions?
3.6 Confidence Interval
Difference between
Two Proportions
OBJECTIVE
After completing this chapter, you should be able to
p1q1 p2 q2
p1 p2 z
2 n1 n2
EXERCISE 3.6
1. Given p1 0.6, n1 75, .
p2 0.3, n2 100
Find the 95% confidence intervals for p1 p2 .
OBJECTIVE
After completing this chapter, you should be able to
n 1 s 2 n 1 s 2
, 2
,n 1 1 ,n 1
2
2 2
n 1 s 2 , n 1 s 2
2 12
2
, n 1
2
, n 1
Where
n 1 s 2
OBJECTIVE
After completing this chapter, you should be able to
2 2
s1 1 s1
2 , 2 F ,n 1,n 1
s2 F ,n 1,n 1 s2 2 2 1
2 1 2
s12 12
Where ~ Fn1 1,n2 1 (F distribution)
s2 2
2 2
1
F1 , n1 1, n2 1
2 F , n2 1, n1 1
2
EXERCISE 3.8
1. The machined in EXERCISE 3.7.1 is
serviced. A random sample of 12 rulers
produces by the machine after the serviced
made give a group of data below.
100.03, 100.01, 100.02, 100.04,
99.90, 99.96, 100.04, 100.06,
100.08, 99.98, 100.11, 100.05
Find the 95% confidence interval for
variance proportion for all rulers produces
by the machine before and after the service.
EXERCISE 3.8
2. Before service, a machine can packed
10 packets of sugar with variance
weight 64 g² while after service the
variance weight for 5 packets of sugar
are 25 g².
Find the 90% confidence interval for
variance proportion for all sugar
produces by the machine before and
after the service.
Conclusion
An important aspect of inferential statistics is
estimation