Ferrero Group in Packaged Food (World) : January 2017
Ferrero Group in Packaged Food (World) : January 2017
January 2017
SCOPE OF THE REPORT
Scope
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to ensure accuracy and reliability,
Euromonitor International cannot be
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errors.
Figures in tables and analyses are
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Ferrero continues to
experience incredible growth in
China and perform solidly in
many other of its core focus
markets, while gradually
expanding in previously weak
areas such as the US and the
UK. There is also more room for
the company to develop,
particularly via its new Nutella
products, its expansion of
Kinder SKUs and the
broadening out of its retail
ambitions. The company is also
looking to deal with the growing
challenge of negative health
perceptions regarding its
products.
Gifting categories Pricing strategies US chocolate segment India and the Middle East
Ingeniously, Ferrero has The company has Ferrero has failed to As with many of its
managed to reposition proved flexible with make huge inroads in rivals, Ferrero struggles
Nutella as a seasonal product SKUs, rolling the US, despite the in India, where
gifting product, and this out a range of miniature popularity of premium Mondelez has a
prevalence for gifting is products that appeal to chocolate there. dominant market share.
a source of continued more health-conscious Increasing Nutella and Alongside the Middle
growth for Ferrero in consumers. Ferrero Raffaello visibility in the East, where it is similarly
China, recording Rocher, Kinder and market could work. weak, these are some of
phenomenal growth. Nutella are all moving the last remaining
into small pack sizes. pockets of growth for
OPPORTUNITIES THREATS
the company to tap.
UK and US Premium biscuits Lindt, Mondelez, Nestlé Decline of sugar
and Hershey confectionery
Recent investment in The acquisition of Mondelez is looking to As with many
marketing, and the premium Belgian biscuit expand its footprint in confectionery
acquisition of Thorntons, brand Delacre from Yildiz two key target markets manufacturers, Ferrero
has significantly ramped is an interesting one. for Ferrero - the US and faces a threat as
up Ferrero’s presence in While it is a relatively China - and this could consumers become
the UK, where it small investment, there hamper Ferrero’s more conscious of
performed far above the is certainly scope for growth prospects if the indulging in sugary and
market in 2016. growth. former is successful. fatty foods.
By all accounts, Ferrero has accomplished a solid performance over the past decade, owing to its
successful mission in China. The company has seen sales growth of US$250 million between 2011 and
2016; its market share is eating directly into that of Mars.
Ferrero’s geographical portfolio is less extensive than that of its two largest rivals, and so it is easier for the
company to achieve growth. Yet that should not diminish the success the company has had. The company
has successfully balanced growth in saturated food markets, such as confectionery within the UK and other
Western European countries, with growth in unsaturated ones, particularly Russia, Brazil and China. New
product launches such as Nutella Bready and Nutella & Go! have largely complemented sales growth from
its flagship brands.
The company may see more competition from Mondelez in China, as it seeks to ramp up investment here.
However, the company can still rely on its chocolate spreads sales to grow around the world.
Lindt has been a star performer in chocolate, successfully tapping into the growing premium chocolate
segment that has developed in saturated chocolate confectionery markets. Lindt has seen particularly good
success in the US, and its acquisition of Russell Stover leaves it well positioned to capitalise on any future
growth. That said, the chocolate market has performed poorly in 2016, and Lindt appeared to suffer the
same weak growth as many of its counterparts. This could point to a backlash against premium chocolate
as that segment grows more saturated.
While Ferrero does have a strong presence in premium chocolate via Ferrero Rocher, it has a diversified
portfolio which is growing via its mass-market Kinder range as well as the development of Nutella
countlines. It will be interesting to see if Ferrero can continue to generate such strong growth in chocolate if
China continues to struggle. Two other markets where Ferrero has performed well - Brazil and Russia - are
anticipated to perform poorly in the future as a result of economic headwinds.
Bright lights may dim over the course of the next five years
As with many of its rivals, Ferrero’s market share in India is underwhelming, at 8%. This doubled between
2011 and 2016 and the company has significantly outperformed its rivals over that time frame.
The focus for the company has been on Kinder and Ferrero Rocher, and continuing to focus on the former
in particular makes sense. This is because the potential for a premium chocolate market in India - where
Ferrero Rocher would target - is severely limited due to the poor distribution and retail networks within the
country, as well as the high temperatures that force companies to alter recipes and cause much chocolate
to melt.
As the graph below demonstrates, one of the main drivers of growth over the next five years within India
will be GDP per capita, which accounts for five percentage points of overall chocolate sales growth. This
suggests that more of the population is becoming wealthier, and so more people can buy chocolate.
However, consumption of chocolate is extremely low - at just 0.2kg per person - and is too expensive for
many. Kinder, Ferrero’s mass-market brand, would do better given these circumstances.
As with chocolate confectionery, Ferrero has performed solidly in the sugar confectionery world. In truth, its
performance against Perfetti and Mondelez should not be lauded too loudly - the company makes around a
quarter of the sales of its rivals, and so its growth is from a much lower base. Indeed, part of the reason for
its relatively strong growth in the chart above is that it has more markets to expand into than its
counterparts. In particular, Ferrero has made more of a footprint on the Latin American and Asia Pacific
markets, particularly over the last five years.
In the future, growth may not be so easy to come by - the Brazilian market will experience an US$81 million
contraction in sales between 2016 and 2021. In addition, the company’s portfolio - which is largely
dedicated to the Tic Tac brand - does not align particularly well with the Asian sugar confectionery market,
which has much more focus on toffees and boiled sweets than Western countries. At present, many Asian
countries have not yet made a transition from consuming gum to consuming mints, further limiting sales
potential. However, this strong presence in mints may help growth in the West in the next five years.
With gum experiencing a seemingly terminal decline in the West (with the exception of the UK), mint sales
will pick up some of the slack. Mint sales will increase by US$346 million in Western Europe and North
America between 2016 and 2021. Ferrero could leverage its Tic Tac mints further, particularly in the US, to
gain additional market share - at present, the brand has a 12% market share, but this has remained stable
while brands such as Hershey’s Ice Breakers have grown substantially.
The most significant driver of growth in the US is likely to be population increases, which accounts for 0.8
percentage points of the anticipated 1.5% CAGR between 2016 and 2021. This could suggest that a focus
on improving distribution of the brand is most important for Ferrero - the brands that perform well will be
those that are sold in regions of faster population growth. Improving distribution of Tic Tac could work
alongside increased exposure for the Kinder chocolate range in such markets.
Although the company should not phase out its Tic Tac chews range, overall category growth is expected
to be poor in Western Europe, at 1% value sales CAGR between 2016 and 2021. These products have
negative associations which mints do not; more focus on mints would be a securer bet in the long run.
Elsewhere, the Middle East and Africa as well as India have all been fast-growing markets for Ferrero
within sugar confectionery. Company value sales CAGR has neared 40% between 2011 and 2016 in Saudi
Arabia; the equivalent figure is over 30% in India. The sugar confectionery market is expected to grow
significantly in both markets, achieving CAGRs of 4% and 8% in Saudi Arabia and India, respectively,
between 2016 and 2021. Indeed, one could make the case that sugar confectionery should be prioritised
over chocolate confectionery in India, given that sugar confectionery is more affordable to more consumers,
has fewer difficulties in terms of transportation and production (much chocolate melts and often contains
high volumes of vegetable fat in the country), and there is less of a stranglehold on the competitive
environment by one competitor (Cadbury has a 45% market share of chocolate confectionery sales; the
leading sugar confectionery brand, Alpenliebe, has a 15% market share).
As in the US, the aim will be to
improve distribution of Tic Tac
within both India and Saudi Arabia.
Increased availability, particularly
of mints, will be a key factor of
growth. Habit persistence - the
cumulative lag effect of all drivers
in a previous year - will also be a
strong growth driver, suggesting
that consumption of these mints
and chews is becoming more
deeply embedded in both Saudi
Arabia and India.
Ferrero has experienced great success with the Nutella brand, which has seen sales post a 5% CAGR
between 2011 and 2016. Particularly strong performing countries have included Brazil and Turkey, where
acquisition of local hazelnut producer Oltan Group could help improve distribution of the brand in the latter
country.
The company has also performed strongly in the US, achieving a 7% CAGR. There is real potential for the
brand to grow further by leveraging foodservice options, particularly Nutella cafés, in the country. The
company has already been pursuing this through Eataly stores, but this is small in scale. The company saw
an initial loss in market share as Hershey entered the market in 2012, but has since battled back.
The forecast for chocolate spread sales is relatively modest - worldwide value sales growth is expected to
be 2% CAGR, equating to an additional US$406 million over 2016-2021. Yet given Nutella owns 55% of
this market, Ferrero should aim to boost its market share where possible. At present, its strategy appears to
diversify through gifting and pursuing healthy messaging for its products.
Ferrero’s portfolio is largely focused on four main brands - Kinder, Ferrero Rocher, Nutella and Tic Tac.
Recently, the company has made efforts to diversify slightly, in particular by pushing its Raffaello brand -
which had previously been very strong in Russia - to more Western European markets, particularly the UK
and France. The brand has subsequently seen a 10% CAGR in the last five years - though it is growing
from a much lower base than the big four.
Ferrero Rocher has performed particularly well in China, where in conjunction with Kinder, Ferrero has
been eating into Mars’s dominant market share. While the company remains focused on improving
Thorntons’s standing within the UK, it is not beyond the realms of possibility that Thorntons could become
an international brand. UK brands are highly popular within China and India, with many of them bought via
e-commerce platforms such as Alibaba. Ferrero could establish a proof of concept for the brand
internationally via these retailers.
Although Kinder has performed phenomenally well in Russia, it is unlikely to enjoy a similar period of
growth over the next five years as Russia’s chocolate market experiences a significant slowdown. The
brand has continued to perform well in Western Europe despite the slowdown of chocolate growth in the
likes of France and Germany, and has also performed well in the UK, especially between 2011 and 2016.
The reason for this strong performance in Western Europe is an expansion of Kinder SKUs - Kinder
Schoko-Bons have proven extremely popular and have moved Ferrero into chocolate pouches; Kinder
Bueno SKUs have been extended to include 25g products. These miniature products tap into growing
health consciousness regarding overconsumption of chocolate.
It should also be noted that Ferrero has not oversaturated its Kinder range - the taste portfolio of the
products remains relatively unchanged even if the product format does. The company should try and
maintain this balancing act if possible.
2016 was the first full year that UK chocolatier Thorntons was part of Ferrero Group. The company has
rationalised the portfolio of Thorntons stores drastically and has worked on changing consumer perceptions
of the brand, looking at ways to improve recipes and engaging in substantial promotional activity.
The acquisition of Thorntons should primarily be seen as a chance for Ferrero to improve its presence in a
market where its share was previously lacking - Ferrero’s share in the UK chocolate confectionery market
more than doubled as a result of the acquisition. However, it can also be regarded as an opportunity for
greater experimentation with a retail network.
Many of Ferrero’s premium competitors - notably Lindt and Godiva - have extensive retail strategies. The
former has committed itself to becoming the world leader in chocolate retailing by 2020. These stores are
moving from marketing gimmick to legitimate business concept. By converting some Thorntons stores into
Nutella cafés or Ferrero Rocher stores, Ferrero can conduct a controlled experiment in the UK - a high food
consumption market - that could be emulated elsewhere in Western Europe and North America.
Ferrero has struck a winning formula, but more bold steps needed
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