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Lecture in OPRMGMT 6 Learning Curves

Learning curves illustrate that the time required to perform a task decreases with increasing repetitions of that task. Short, routine tasks see modest improvements quickly while complex tasks improve over a longer period. The learning effect is attributed to factors like worker learning, pre-production preparation, and changes made during production. Learning curves can be useful for applications like manpower planning but require valid initial data and should only be used to approximate actual times, as many assumptions are involved.

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60 views

Lecture in OPRMGMT 6 Learning Curves

Learning curves illustrate that the time required to perform a task decreases with increasing repetitions of that task. Short, routine tasks see modest improvements quickly while complex tasks improve over a longer period. The learning effect is attributed to factors like worker learning, pre-production preparation, and changes made during production. Learning curves can be useful for applications like manpower planning but require valid initial data and should only be used to approximate actual times, as many assumptions are involved.

Uploaded by

Vivian
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Learning Curves

1
Learning Curves
• Learning curve
– The time required to perform a task decreases with
increasing repetitions
– The degree of improvement is a function of the task
being done
• Short, routine tasks will show modest improvement
relatively quickly
• Longer, more complex tasks will show improvement
over a longer interval
Learning
The Learning Effect
• The learning effect is attributed to a variety of factors:
– Worker learning
– Preproduction factors
• Tooling and equipment selection
• Product design
• Methods analysis
• Effort expended prior to the start of work
– Changes made after production has begun
• Changes in work methods
• Changes in tooling and equipment
– Managerial factors
• Improvements in planning, scheduling, motivation, and control
Interesting Characteristics of Learning
• The learning effect is predictable
– The learning percentage is constant
• Every doubling of repetitions results in a
constant percentage decrease in the time per
repetition
– Typical decreases range from 10 to 20 percent
Learning Curves: On a Log-Log Graph
Learning Illustrated
• Each time cumulative output doubles, the time per unit for that
amount should be approximately equal to the previous time
multiplied by the learning percentage.
• If the first unit of a process took 100 hours and the learning rate is
90%:
Unit Unit Time (hours)
1 = 100
2 .90(100) = 90
4 .90(90) = 81
8 .90(81) = 72.9
16 .90(72.9) = 65.61
32 .90(65.61) = 59.049
Unit Times: Formula Approach

Tn  T1  n b
where
Tn  Time for nth unit
T1  Time for first unit
ln r
b
ln 2
r  learning rate percentage
ln stands for the natural logarithm
Example: Formula Approach
• If the learning rate is 90, and the first unit took
100 hours to complete, how long would it take to
complete the 25th unit?
ln.90
T25  100  25 ln 2

.15200
 100  25
 61.3068 hours
Unit Times: Learning Factor Approach
• The learning factor approach uses a table that
shows two things for selected learning
percentages:
– Unit value for the number of repetitions (unit number)

Tn  T1  Unit time factor


– Cumulative value, which enables us to compute the
total time required to complete a given number of
units.

T n  T1  Total time factor


Example: Learning Factor Approach
• If the learning rate is 90, and the first unit took
100 hours to complete, how long would it take to
complete the 25th unit?
T25  100  .613
 61.3 hours
• How long would it take to complete the first 25
units?
T 25  100 17.713
 1,771.3 hours
Learning Curve Applications
• Useful application areas:
– Manpower planning and scheduling
– Negotiated purchasing
– Pricing new products
– Budgeting, purchasing, and inventory planning
– Capacity planning
Cautions and Criticisms
1. Learning rates may differ from organization to organization and by
type of work
– Base learning rates on empirical studies rather than assumptions where
possible
2. Projections based on learning curves should be regarded as
approximations of actual times
3. Because time estimates are based on the first unit, care should be
taken to ensure that the time is valid
4. It is possible that at some point the curve might level off or even
tip upward
Cautions and Criticisms
5. Some of the improvements may be more apparent
than real: improvements in times may be caused by
increases in indirect labor costs
6. In mass production situations, learning curves may be
of initial use in predicting how long it will take before
the process stabilizes
– The concept does not usually apply because improvement in
time per unit is almost imperceptible
Cautions and Criticisms
7. Users of learning curves fail to include carryover
effects from previous experiences
8. Shorter product life cycles, flexible manufacturing, and
cross-functional workers can affect the ways in which
learning curves may be applied

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