Valuation of Bonds and Stocks
Valuation of Bonds and Stocks
AND STOCKS
• Liquidation Value
• Market Value
• Intrinsic Value (Present Value of Cash flow stream expected from the security
discounted at a rate of return appropriate for the risk associated with the security )
TERMINOLOGY
P = C x PVIFAr,n + M x PVIFr,n
Assumptions:
Coupon Interest rate is fixed for the term of the bond
Annual coupon payments & next coupon payment is exactly a year now.
The annual Interest payment , C must be divided by two to obtain semi annual
interest payment.
Number of years to maturity must be multiplied by two to get the number of half
yearly periods.
Discount rate has to be divided by two to get the discount rate applicable to half
yearly periods.
2n
C/2 M
P = Σ (1+r/2)t
+
(1+r/2)2n
t=1
P = C/ 2 x (PVIFAr/2,2n) + M (PVIFr2,2n)
ILLUSTRATION
As an illustration, consider an 8 year, 12 percent coupon bond
with a par value of Rs. 100 on which interest is payable semi-
annually. The required return on this bond is 14 percent.
Value of the bond is:
16
6 100
P=Σ (1.07) t
+
(1.07)16
t=1
Coupon rate < Required yield Price < Par (Discount bond)
PRICE - YIELD RELATIONSHIP
Price of a bond must be equal to to its par value at maturity assuming that there is no risk of
default, bond prices changes with time. For E.g. A bond that is redeemable for Rs 1000 after 5
years when it matures will have a price of Rs 1000 at maturity no matter what the current price
is .If its price is say Rs 1100 it is said to be a premium bond. If the required yield does change
between now and the maturity date the premium will decline over time as shown by curve A
.On the other hand if the bond has a current price of say Rs 900 it is said to be a discount bond.
The discount too will disappear over time as shown by Curve B.Only when the Current price =
Par Value there is no change in price as time passes assuming that the required yield does not
change between now and the maturity date.
PRICE CHANGES WITH TIME
VALUE OF
BOND PREMIUM BOND: rd = 11%
A
PAR VALUE BOND: rd = 13%
B
DISCOUNT BOND: rd = 15%
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
BOND PRICE THEOREMS
1. BOND PRICES & YIELDS MOVE IN OPPOSITE
DIRECTIONS
2. BOND PRICES ARE MORE SENSITIVE TO YIELD
CHANGES THE LONGER THEIR MATURITIES
3. THE PRICE SENSITIVITY OF BONDS TO YIELD
CHANGES INCREASES AT A DECREASING RATE
WITH MATURITY
4. HIGH COUPON BOND PRICES ARE LESS SENSITIVE
TO YIELD CHANGES THAN LOW COUPON BOND
PRICES
5. WITH A CHANGE IN YIELD OF A GIVEN NUMBER OF
BASIS POINTS, THE ASSOCIATED PERCENT GAIN IS
LARGER THAN THE PERCENT LOSS.
BOND YIELDS
•
CURRENT YIELD : It relates annual coupon payment to the market price.
ANNUAL INTEREST
PRICE
Problem: The current yield of a 10 year, 12 percent coupon bond with a par value of Rs
1000 and selling for Rs 950 is ??? (12.63%)
Interpretation: Current yield calculation reflects only the coupon interest rate. It does not
considers the capital gain or loss that an investor will realize if the bond is purchased at a
discount or premium and held till maturity. It also ignores the time value of money. Hence
it is an incomplete and simplistic measure of yield
•
BOND YIELDS
• YIELD TO MATURITY : YTM of a bond is the Interest rate that makes the present
value of the cash flow receivable from owning the bond equal to the price of the bond.
Problem: Consider Rs 1000 par value bond carrying a coupon rate of 9 percent maturing after 8
years. Thee bond is currently selling for Rs 800.What is the YTM of the bond?
C C C M
P = + + …. +
(1+r) (1+r)2 (1+r)n (1+r)n
8 90 1,000
800 = +
t=1 (1+r)t (1+r)8
AT r = 13% … RHS = 808
AT r = 14% … RHS = 768.1
808 - 800
YTM = 13% + (14% - 13%) * = 13.2% Linear Interpolation
808 - 768.1
C + (M - P) / n
YTM ≃ Approximation
0.4M + 0.6 P
YTM calculation considers the current coupon income as well as the capital gain or the loss the
Investor will realize by holding the bond to maturity. It takes into account timing of cash flow
BOND YIELDS
• YIELD TO CALL : Bonds carrying a call feature entitles the issuer to call (buy back) the
bond prior to the stated maturity days in accordance with a call schedule ( which specifies a
call price for each call date).
n* C M*
P = +
t=1 (1+r) t
(1+r)n
Problem: Consider a 20 year, 10% semiannual pay bond with a full price of 112 that can
be called in 5 years at 102 and called at par in 7 years. Calculate the YTM, YTC & yield to
first par call?
Realized Yield to Maturity: The YTM calculation assumes that the cash flow received
through the life of a bond are reinvested at a rate equal to the YTM.This assumption may
not be valid as reinvestment rate applicable to future cash flow may be different. It may be
necessary to define the future reinvestment rates & figure out the Realized YTM.
Problem: Consider a 1000 par value of bond carrying an Interest rate of 15 percent
(payable annually) and maturing after 5 years. The present market price of this bond is
850.The reinvestment rate applicable to the future cash flow of this bond is 16 percent.
REALISED YIELD TO MATURITY
FUTURE VALUE OF BENEFITS
0 1 2 3 4 5
• INVESTMENT 850
• ANNUAL INTEREST 150 150 150 150 150
• RE-INVESTMENT
PERIOD (IN YEARS) 4 3 2 1 0
• COMPOUND FACTOR
(AT 16 PERCENT) 1.81 1.56 1.35 1.16 1.00
• FUTURE VALUE OF
INTERMEDIATE CASH FLOWS 271.5 234.0 202.5 174.0 150.0
• MATURITY VALUE 1000
• TOTAL FUTURE VALUE = 271.5 + 234.0 + 202.5 + 174.0 + 150.0 + 1000
= 2032
(1+r*)5 = 2032 / 850 = 2.391
r* = 0.19 OR 19 PERCENT
PROBLEM
= Rs. 1110.5
EQUITY VALUATION: DIVIDEND DISCOUNT MODEL
Assumptions:
Constant growth model includes four variables so if we know any three of them
we can solve for the fourth.
EXPECTED RATE OF RETURN
What rate of return can the investor expect, given the current market price and
the forecast value of dividend & share price?
D1
r = + g
P0
g = r- D1
P0
Problem: Equity stock of ABC is currently selling for Rs 30 per share. The
dividend expected next year is Rs 2.The investors required rate of return is 15
percent. If the constant growth rate model applies to ABC what is the expected
growth rate? (Answer 8.3%)
STRENGTHS & LIMITATIONS OF
CONSTANT GROWTH MODEL
DIVIDEND DISCOUNT MODEL
• SINGLE PERIOD VALUATION MODEL
D1 P1
P0 = +
(1+r) (1+r)
• MULTI - PERIOD VALUATION MODEL
Dt
P0 =
t=1 (1+r)t
• ZERO GROWTH MODEL
D
P0 =
r
• CONSTANT GROWTH MODEL
D1
P0 =
r-g
WHAT DRIVES GROWTH
• Most stock valuation models are based on the assumption that dividends grow over time.
What drives this growth?
•Two Major drivers of the growth are:
1.Retention Ratio (Ploughback Ratio)
2.Return on Equity (ROE)
Problem: Omega ltd has an Equity (net worth) base of 100 beginning of year 1. It earns a
ROE of 20%. It pays out 40% of its equity earnings and plough back 60% of its equity
earnings. The financial of Omega Limited for 3 year is given.
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Beginning Equity 100 112 125.44
Return on Equity 0.2 0.2 0.20
Equity Earnings 20 22.4 25.09
Dividend payout ratio 0.4 0.4 0.40
Dividends 8 8.96 10.04
Plougback ratio 0.6 0.6 0.60
Retained Earnings 12 13.44 15.05
Dividends grow @ 12% per annum from 8 to 8.96 & from 8.96 to 10.04.
g = ROE * RR i.e. 0.2 * 0.6 = 0.12
•
TWO - STAGE GROWTH MODEL
TWO - STAGE GROWTH MODEL
TWO - STAGE GROWTH MODEL
1 - 1+g1 n
1+r Pn
P0 = D1 +
r - g1 (1+r)n
WHERE
Pn D1 (1+g1)n-1 (1+g2) 1
=
(1+r)n r - g2 (1+r)n
TWO - STAGE GROWTH MODEL : EXAMPLE
EXAMPLE THE CURRENT DIVIDEND ON AN EQUITY SHARE OF
VERTIGO LIMITED IS RS.2.00. VERTIGO IS EXPECTED TO ENJOY AN
ABOVE-NORMAL GROWTH RATE OF 20 PERCENT FOR A PERIOD OF 6
YEARS. THEREAFTER THE GROWTH RATE WILL FALL AND STABILISE
AT 10 PERCENT. EQUITY INVESTORS REQUIRE A RETURN OF 15
PERCENT. WHAT IS THE INTRINSIC VALUE OF THE EQUITY SHARE OF
VERTIGO ?
THE INPUTS REQUIRED FOR APPLYING THE TWO-STAGE MODEL ARE :
g1 = 20 PERCENT
g2 = 10 PERCENT
n = 6 YEARS
r = 15 YEARS
D1 = D0 (1+g1) = RS.2(1.20) = 2.40
1.20 6
1 -
1.15 2.40 (1.20)5 (1.10) 1
P0 = 2.40 +
.15 - .20 .15 - .10 (1.15)6
= 13.968 + 65.289
= RS.79.597
TWO - STAGE GROWTH MODEL
ga
gn
H 2H
D0
PO = [(1+gn) + H (ga - gn)] INCORRECT
FORMULA
Po = Intrinsic Value of r - gn
share
Do = Current dividend per D0 (1+gn) D0 H (ga - gn) CORRECT
share
r = Required rate of return
= + FORMULA
gn = Normal long run growth r - gn r - gn
rate
ga = High growth rate
H = One half of the period
VALUE BASED PREMIUM DUE TO
during which ga will level ON NORMAL ABNORMAL GROWH
ILLUSTRATION :H MODEL
Problem: The current dividend on equity share of International computers ltd is Rs 3.The
present growth rate is 50%.However this will decline linearly over a period of 10 years and
then stabilize at 12%.What is the Intrinsic value per share of International computers ltd if
the Investors require a return of 16%?
= 84 + 142.5
= 226.5
Problem: The current dividend on equity share of ABC ltd is Rs 5.The present growth rate
is 50%.However this will decline linearly over a period of 8 years and then stabilize at
10%.What is the Intrinsic value per share of ABC ltd if the Investors require a return of
18% from this stock? (Answer: 168.75)
THREE STAGE DDM MODEL
THREE STAGE DDM MODEL
Problem: Vardhman Ltd earnings & dividends have been growing at a rate of 18% p.a.
This growth rate is expected to continue for 4 years. After that the growth rate will fall to
12% for the next 4 years. Thereafter the growth rate is expected to be 6% forever. If the
last dividend per share was Rs 2 and the Investors required rate of return is 15%. What is
the Intrinsic value per share? (Answer Rs 16.83 + Rs 23.49 = Rs 40.32)
TERMINAL VALUE
TERMINAL VALUE
IMPACT OF GROWTH ON PRICE, RETURNS,
AND P/E RATIO
The expected growth rates of companies differ widely. Some companies are
expected to remain virtually stagnant or grow slowly, other companies are
expected to show normal growth, still others are expected to achieve supernormal
growth rate. Assuming a constant total required return, differing expected growth
rate means differing stock prices, dividends yields, capital gain yields & Price
Earning ratio.
Illustration: Consider three cases:
Growth Rate (%)
Low growth firm 5
Normal growth firm 10
Supernormal growth firm 15
The expected Earnings per share & dividend per share of each of the three firms
are Rs 3 & Rs 2 respectively. Investors required total return from equity
investments is 20%.
IMPACT OF GROWTH ON PRICE, RETURNS,
AND P/E RATIO
RS. 2.00
LOW GROWTH FIRM PO = = RS.13.33 15.0% 5.0% 4.44
0.20 - 0.05
RS. 2.00
NORMALGROWTH PO = = RS.20.00 10.0% 10.0% 6.67
FIRM 0.20 - 0.10
RS. 2.00
SUPERNORMAL PO = = RS.40.00 5.0% 15.0% 13.33
GROWTH FIRM 0.20 - 0.15
IMPACT OF GROWTH ON PRICE, RETURNS,
AND P/E RATIO
IV.Low dividend yield and high price earning ratio imply considerable growth
prospects.
EARNINGS MULTIPLIER APPROACH – P/E Ratio.
P0 = m E1
DETERMINANTS OF m (P / E)
D1
P0 =
r-g
E1 (1 - b)
P0 =
r - ROE x b
Equation Indicates that the factors that
(1 - b) determine the P/E ratio are:
The dividend payout ratio, (1-b)
P0 / E1 = The required rate of return, r
The expected growth rate , ROE * b
r - ROE x b
EARNINGS MULTIPLIER APPROACH – P/E Ratio.
P/E ratio & Retention ratio: What is the effect of a change in b on the P/E ratio?
It depends on how ROE compares with r.
If ROE > r an increase in b leads to an increase in P/E.
If ROE = r an increase in b has no effect on P/E.
If ROE < r an increase in b leads to an decrease in P/E.
P/E ratio & Interest rate : The required rate of return on equity stocks reflects interest rate & risk.
When Interest rate increase, required rates of return on all securities including stocks increase
pushing security prices downwards. When Interest rate falls security price rise. Hence there is an
inverse relationship between P/E ratio & interest rate.
P/E ratio & Risk: Other things being equal riskier stocks have lower P/E multiples. Riskier stocks
have higher required rates of return (r) and hence lower P/E multiples. This is true in all case, not
just the constant growth model. For nay expected earnings & dividends stream, the present value
will be lower when the stream is considered to be riskier. Hence the P/E multiple will be lower.
P/E ratio & Liquidity: Others things being Equal stocks which are highly liquid command higher
P/E multiples &stocks which are highly Illiquid command lower P/E multiple. Investors value
liquidity just the way they value safety & hence are willing to give higher P/E multiple to liquid
stock .
E / P, EXPECTED RETURN, AND GROWTH
1 2
……...
E1 = D1 E2 = D2
= 15 = 15
15
r = 15% P0 = = 100
0.15
INVESTMENT .. RS. 15 PER SHARE IN YEAR 1 … EARNS 15%
2.25
NPV PER SHARE = - 15 + = 0
0.15
E1
P0 = + PVGO
r
E1 PVGO
= r 1 -
P0 P0
Firm paying no dividends: It sometimes happens that a company although earns profit but
does not declare dividends. How would dividend capitalization model explain the share value
under such circumstances?.In fact
STOCK MARKET
Principal Exchanges
Veritable Transformation
• Screen-based Trading
• Electronic Delivery
• Rolling Settlement
STOCK MARKET INDICES
the P/E ratio approach. The value of an equity share, under this
approach, is estimated as follows:
PO = E1 x PO / E1
SUMMING UP
• The stock price may be considered as the capitalised value of