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Lecture-3 Pakistan Power Sector: Back-Ground, Present Situation & Future Plans

1. The power sector in Pakistan has historically been managed by WAPDA but is now being restructured with different entities managing generation, transmission, and distribution. 2. Current generation sources include hydro, thermal from WAPDA GENCOs and IPPs, and nuclear. However, reliance on oil for thermal power has increased prices and the country faces regular shortages. 3. Future plans through 2030 include expanding transmission infrastructure to evacuate power from northern hydro and Thar coal projects, requiring huge investment of around $280 billion.

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Majid Khan
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63 views

Lecture-3 Pakistan Power Sector: Back-Ground, Present Situation & Future Plans

1. The power sector in Pakistan has historically been managed by WAPDA but is now being restructured with different entities managing generation, transmission, and distribution. 2. Current generation sources include hydro, thermal from WAPDA GENCOs and IPPs, and nuclear. However, reliance on oil for thermal power has increased prices and the country faces regular shortages. 3. Future plans through 2030 include expanding transmission infrastructure to evacuate power from northern hydro and Thar coal projects, requiring huge investment of around $280 billion.

Uploaded by

Majid Khan
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Lecture-3

PAKISTAN POWER SECTOR


BACK-GROUND, PRESENT SITUATION & FUTURE PLANS
POWER SECTOR - BACKGROUND

WAPDA was formed in 1958. The major


responsibilities of WAPDA were;

– Meet electricity demand of the country (except


area of Karachi) by installing
• New power plants,
• Transmission lines and
• Distribution system.

– Develop hydro storage project ( dams) for


meeting irrigation and demand of the country and
install hydro plants at dams locations. 2
POWER
POWER SECTOR
SECTOR-- BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND

• WAPDA Had Two Wings;


1. Power wing – Responsible for power matters
2. Water wing – Responsible for water matters
• The WAPDA AUTHORITY consisted of;
– Chairman
– Member Power- Head of Power wing
– Member Water – Head of Water wing
– Member Finance – Head of Financial matters

3
POWER SECTOR - BACKGROUND

SECTIONS OF POWER WING WAPDA

1. Hydro Generation plants


2. Thermal Generation plants
3. Transmission lines and grid stations
4. Distribution network for consumers

4
POWER SECTOR - BACKGROUND
1. The GoP approved Pakistan Power Sector Strategic Plan for
restructuring and reform in 1992.
2. PEPCO was established in 1998 as an independent entity with mandate
to split Power wing of WAPDA into various entities and then corporatize
& commercialize the restructured entities.
3. PEPCO initiated the restructuring and reform process in 1998. The
reform process was considerably slowed down beyond 2001 when
PEPCO was reduced to a Division in WAPDA.
4. The GoP reactivated the mandate of PEPCO in October 2007 to bridge
the increasing demand supply gap and to reduce the resulting load
shedding in the country
5. By the end of 2011, everybody was fed up with PEPCO, and now the
restructured entities are being managed by the Ministry of Water &
Power directly.
5
PEPCO SYSTEM

1. Hydro Generation (Remains with WAPDA)

2. Thermal Generation 4 GENCOs


3. Transmission 1 NTDC
4. Distribution 10 DISCOs

6
Consumers vs Consumption Pattern
No. of Consumers Consumption
Consumers (As on 30th Jun 2013) (Jul 2012 - Jun 2013)
Category Billion
Nos. % age % age
units
Domestic 18,713,537 85.55% 33.258 51.18
Commercial 2,550,808 11.66% 4.657 7.17
Industrial 296,849 1.36% 19.172 29.5
Agricultural 301,115 1.38% 7.548 11.61
Others 13,291 0.06% 0.351 0.54
Total 21,875,600 100.00% 64.986 100.00%
7
Consumption Pattern Jul-2012 - Jun 2013
Others
Agricultural 0.54%
11.61%

Industrial Domestic
29.50% 51.18%

Commercial
7.17%

8
GENERATION SOURCES
June 2013
1. HYDRO
• WAPDA 6733
• IPPS 195
• Sub Total 6928
2. THERMAL
• EX. WAPDA GENCOs 4785
• IPPs 8359
• NUCLEAR 650
• Sub-Total 13794
• GRAND TOTAL 20,722

9
Generation Sources (MW) June 2013
Thermal Nuclear,
650, 3.14%

Hydro WAPDA,
6733, 32.49%
Thermal IPPs,
8359, 40.34%

Thermal
Ex.WAPDA
GENCOs, 4785,
23.09%
Hydro IPPs, 195,
0.94%

10
EXISTING GENERATING CAPABILITY (June, 2013)

Availability (MW)
Nameplate/
Dependable
Type of Installed
Capacity
Generation Capacity
(MW) Summer Winter
(MW)

Hydro 6928 6928 6928 2300*


GENCOs 4785 3536 2736 3178**

IPPs (incl Nuclear) 9009 8300 7000 7578**

Total 20722 18764 16664 13056

* Hydro availability based on last 5 years average


** Excludes 10% Forced Outages for GENCOs & 6.0% for IPPs
11
VARIATION IN GENERATION MIX

YEAR HYDEL THERMAL


GENERATION GENERATION
1994- 95 50 % 50 % (Mostly on gas)

2000- 01 30 % 70 %

2006- 07 36 % 64 %

2012- 13 34 % 66 % ( Mostly on oil)

12
Reasons For Price Hike Of Cost Of Electricity

• Oil Prices are beyond control of Pakistan


• Depletion of natural gas reserves
• Non-conducive circumstances for foreign
investments (national/regional instability)
• Delay in exploitation of indigenous resources,
i.e. Thar Coal in South and huge hydel
potential in Northen Areas
• Theft of Electricity
13
PEPCO SYSTEM HISTORICAL SURPLUS / DEFICIT

Available Computed Peak Surplus/


Years Capability Demand Shortfall
2001-02 10894 10459 435
2002-03 10958 11044 -86
2003-04 11834 11598 236
2004-05 12792 12595 197
2005-06 12600 13847 -1247
2006-07 13292 15838 -2546
2007-08 12442 17398 -4956
2008-09 13637 17852 -4215
2009-10 13445 18467 -5022
2010-11 13193 18521 -5328
2011-12 12320 18940 -6620
2012-13 13577 18827 -5250
24/12/2010
Advance Caution Of Load Shedding/Short Fall
By
Planning Power WAPDA/NTDC In The Year 2000

25000

20000

Capability
Forecast
Capability (MW)

15000

10000

5000

0
1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10

Years 15
Country wide Load Forecast of XWAPDA DISCOs’ & KESC (MW)

Year XWAPDA DISCOs’ KESC Country


2011-12 19400 3021 22199
2012-13 20401 3240 23407
2013-14 21556 3484 24792
2014-15 22761 3762 26261
2015-16 24018 4157 27896
2016-17 25352 4592 29647
2017-18 26810 5067 31562
2018-19 28353 5587 33604
2019-20 30036 6144 35822
2020-21 31757 6752 38127
Note Diversity Factor 1.01 is applied to get country demand
NTDC demand is PMS based prepared in March 2012
KESC demand is Regression Based prepared in January 2011
16
Existing
Transmission
Network of NTDC

• 500/220 kV Transformers (14,850 MVA)

• 220/132 kV Transformers (18,044 MVA)

• 500 kV Lines (5,078 km)

• 220 kV Lines (7,947 km)


18
Long Term Transmission Expansion Plan

The proposed transmission expansion plan


upto 2030 will be able to transmit about
90,000 MW power.

19
Comprehensiveness Of Transmission
Expansion Plan

The Transmission Expansion Plan has been proposed


to successfully and safely evacuate power from the
mega hydel projects in the Northern areas and Thar
Coal Power projects in the Southern part of the
country.

20
Finances Required

“Huge Investment to the tune of about


280 Billion USD are required by 2030
for reliable Generation and
Transmission Expansion to meet the
Forecasted Electric Power Demand.”

21
Situation after June, 2013
• The Nawaz government had some aggressive
plans to install coal fired plants at
– Gadani Power Park and
– Bin Qasim Karachi
• to bridge the gap in supply and demand by the
year 2017.
• The success (…?...) in implementation of the
plans, however depends on how much
conducive environment is created for foreign
investment. 22

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