Scribd
Upload
91 views

StatChapter6. Studentppt

This chapter introduces probability concepts including sample space, events, probability trees, and calculating probability. Key terms are defined such as the sample space, events, mutually exclusive and complementary events. Probability is defined as the number of favorable outcomes divided by the total number of outcomes. Several examples demonstrate calculating probabilities of events for experiments involving coins, dice and other objects. Conditional probability and independent versus dependent events are also introduced.

Uploaded by

khairitkr
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
Available Formats
Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
91 views

StatChapter6. Studentppt

This chapter introduces probability concepts including sample space, events, probability trees, and calculating probability. Key terms are defined such as the sample space, events, mutually exclusive and complementary events. Probability is defined as the number of favorable outcomes divided by the total number of outcomes. Several examples demonstrate calculating probabilities of events for experiments involving coins, dice and other objects. Conditional probability and independent versus dependent events are also introduced.

Uploaded by

khairitkr
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
Available Formats
Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 45

CHAPTER 6

INTRODUCTION TO
PROBABILITY
Objectives

At the end of this chapter, students


should be able to:
 list all the elements in a sample space
 list the elements of an event
 draw a probability tree
 obtain the probability of an event
Introduction
 The ___________ of an event is a
measure of the likelihood that the
event will happen.
 It is an important part of statistics
and the basis of inferential statistics
where we make decisions under
conditions of uncertainty.
 The probability values fall between
(and inclusive) _____ and____.
 A probability of 0 indicates that the event is
____________ whereas a probability of 1
indicates that the event is ________ to
happen.
 All other events have probability values
between 0 and 1.
 In this chapter we would introduce some
important definitions in probability, the concept
of probability and later show how to calculate
the probability.
 Combining probability and probability
distributions with descriptive statistics will help
us make decision about population based on
information obtained from samples.
DEFINITIONS

 An _________ or _______ has


a number of possible outcomes.

 The set of all possible outcomes is


called the ____________, S.
 An event of an experiment, A, is defined as a subset of
S. It can be shown by a Venn Diagram below.

 A probability tree diagram can be used if the


probability involve multiple events. In a tree diagram,
each outcome is represented by a branch of a tree.
Venn and tree diagrams help us understand probability
concepts by presenting them visually.
Example 6-1

A fair coin is tossed and the face of the coin is


noted. What are the possible outcomes of this
experiment? Suppose A is the event of getting a
tail. List all the elements in A.

Solution
Since we are looking at the face of the coin,
hence the possible outcomes are either a ‘head’ (
H ) or a ‘tail’ ( T ). Thus, the sample space for
this experiment is S = { H, T } .

A = 'event of getting a tail', so A = { T }.


Example 6-2

A fair die is thrown and the value on the


side facing up is noted. List the elements of
event A of 'getting an even number'.

Solution
The numbers facing up for a die are 1, 2, 3,
4, 5 and 6, so S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.

A = { get an even number} = { }.


xample 6-3

Two fair coins are thrown at the same time and the
faces are noted. What is the sample space? List all
the elements of event B of 'getting the same face'.
Solution
The outcomes of the two coins are as follows:

There are four possible outcomes from this


experiment, HH, HT, TH and TT. Therefore, the
sample space is S = { , , , }
B={ , }
Example 6–4

A coin is tossed 3 times and the face for each toss is noted.
What is the sample space? List all the outcomes for event
M of 'getting only two heads' and N of 'getting at least two
heads'.

Solution
The probability can also be drawn as

Thus, the sample space is


S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT}
M = {get only two heads} = { , , }
N = {get two heads} = { , , , }
Example 6–5

Two dice are thrown together. What is the sample space?


What are the outcomes for event F of 'getting the total score
less than 5'?
Example 6–5
Two dice are thrown together. What is the sample space? What
are the outcomes for event F of 'getting the total score less than
5'?
Union of Events

If A and B are two events in a sample space S,


then the event of A union B, is the event with
the elements of A or B, or both A and B. The
Venn Diagram below shows the region of the
event :
Example 6–6
A pair of fair dice are thrown together. What are the outcomes of the
event 'obtaining total score of 10 or getting the same face value'?

Solution
Let A = 'event for obtaining score 10'
= { (4, 6), (5, 5), (6, 4) }
B = 'event for obtaining getting the same face
value'
= { (1, 1), (2, 2), (3, 3), (4, 4), (5, 5), (6, 6) }
Thus, the event of 'obtaining total score of 10 or
getting the same face value' is:
={ }
Intersection of Events
If A and B are two events in a sample
space S, then the event of A intersect
B, is the event with the elements in
both A and B. The Venn Diagram
below shows the region of the event:
Example 6–7
Two fair dice are tossed together. What are the outcomes for the event of
getting 1 on the first die AND the total score less than 4.

Solution
Let A = {get 1 on the first die} = { ,
, , , , }
B = {get total score < 4} = { ,
, }
Thus the event of getting 1 on the first
dies AND total score less than 4 is
= {(1, 1), (1, 2)}
Mutually Exclusive Events
If A and B are two events in a sample space
such that A and B are mutually exclusive
events, then both events does not intersect,
that is = Ø. The Venn Diagram for mutually
exclusive events A and B is shown below:
Example 6–8
A pair of dice are thrown together. What are the outcomes
for the event of getting doubles AND the total score equal
to 11?
Solution
Let A = {get doubles} = { , , ,
, , }.
B = { total score equal to 11} =
{ , }.
Thus, the event of getting doubles and the
total score equal to 11 is = Ø , that is A
and B are .
Complementary Events
If A is an event in a sample space S, then
the complementary event of A ( not A ),
is the other event in the sample space S,
where its elements are all the elements in S
but not in A, such that The Venn Diagram
is shown below:
Example 6–9
Let A be an event of having two heads in a toss of two coins.
Find the complementary event of A.

Solution
PROBABILITY CONCEPT
Suppose S is a sample space with a finite numbers
outcomes and A is an event in S. The probability of A,
P(A) is defined as:

Where; n(A): number of elements in the event A


n(S): number of elements in the sample
space S
The probability of A is a value
between 0 and 1 inclusive.

If P(A) = 0, then A is an impossible event.

If P(A) = 1, then A is a definite event.

The total probability for all the events in


the sample space is 1 or P(S) = 1.
PROBABILITY LAWS
Example 6–10

A pair of dice is tossed. Find the


probability of the following events:
A : total scoring 5
B : get doubles
C : no doubles
D : total score of 7 or 11
E : total score is more than 2
Solution
Example 6–11:

A bag contains 2 red balls and 3


blue balls. Two balls were drawn
at random without
replacement from the bag.
What is the probability that the
balls are the same colour.
(Without Replacement)
P(same colour)= P(RR) + P(BB)
= +
=
= 2/5
Exercise 6:

1. Two dice were thrown together. Find,


a. the elements in the space sample
b. outcomes in the events A, B, C
i. A, with the score 7
ii. B, an odd score
iii. C, at least one of the dice lands on
3.

2. One coin is toss three times. Find


a. the space sample
b. event for obtaining two heads
c. event for obtaining head on the first
and third toss
d. event for obtaining at least one tail.
Exercise 6:

3. Two dice are toss together. Find,

a. P(score 4)
b. P(score 9)
c. P(score more than 9)
d. P(score less than 4)
e. P(even score)
f. P(odd score)
g. P(score 10 or more )
h. P(number on one die is larger than
the other die)
i. P(score at least 5 or more )
Exercise 6:

5. A box contains 3 white, 4 red and 2 blue


balls. 2 balls is picked at random. What is
the probability that the balls are the same
colour ,

a. with replacement
b. without replacement?
Conditional Probability

If A and B are two events in a


sample space, S, then the
probability of A occurs given that
B has occurred is called the
conditional probability of A
given B and denoted by and
read as “the probability of A given
that B has already occurred”.
Independent versus Dependent Events
Example 6–12:
A pair of fair dice is thrown. If A is the
event of the first die shows number 3 and
B is the event of the getting equal value
on both dice. Find the probability of

a) A, given B has occurred


b) B, given A has occurred
c) Show that A and B are
independent events.
End of Chapter 6

You might also like