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Modeling and Analysis by Bowo, Handri and Juven

This document discusses modeling techniques for management support systems. It covers static and dynamic models, certainty, uncertainty and risk, decision analysis using tables and trees, mathematical programming optimization, multiple goals and sensitivity analysis, problem solving search methods including algorithms and heuristics, simulation methodology and types, and visual interactive simulation. The key topics covered are modeling concepts, model categories, linear programming, decision analysis tools, optimization, simulation, and visual interactive modeling.

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56 views

Modeling and Analysis by Bowo, Handri and Juven

This document discusses modeling techniques for management support systems. It covers static and dynamic models, certainty, uncertainty and risk, decision analysis using tables and trees, mathematical programming optimization, multiple goals and sensitivity analysis, problem solving search methods including algorithms and heuristics, simulation methodology and types, and visual interactive simulation. The key topics covered are modeling concepts, model categories, linear programming, decision analysis tools, optimization, simulation, and visual interactive modeling.

Uploaded by

bho_woo
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Chapter 4

Modeling And Analysis


By Bowo,Handri And Juven
Learning Objectives
O Understand the basic concepts of management support system (MSS)
modeling
O Describe how MSS models interact with data and the user
O Understand some different, well-know model classes
O Understand how to structure decision making with a few alternatives
O Describe how spreadsheets can be used for MSS modeling and solution
O Explain the basic concepts of optimization,sumlation, and heuristics,
and when to use them
O Describe how to structure a linear programming model
O Understand how search methods are used to solve MSS models
O Explain the differences among algorithms, blind search, and heuristics
O Describe how to handle mutiple goals
O Explain what is meant by sensitivity analysis, what-if analysis, and goal
seeking
O Describe the key issues of model management
Mangement Support System
Modeling
O Multiple Models
O Model Categories
O Model Management
O Knowledge-Based Modeling
O Current Trends in Modeling
Static and Dynamic Models
O Static model takes a single snapshot of a
situation
O Dynamic model represent scenarios that over
time.
Certainty, Uncertainty and Risk
O Certainty
O It is assumed that complete knowledge is available so
that th edecision maker knows exactly what the outcome
of each course of action will be.
O Uncertainty
O The decision maker consider situations in which several
outcome are possible for each course of action.
O Risk
O A decision made under risk is one in which the decision
maker must consider several posible outcome for each
alternative, each with a given probability of occurrence
Decision Analysis with Tables and
Decision Trees
O Decision Tables
O Decision table conveniently organize
information and knowlegde in a systematic
tabular manner to prepare it for analysis
O Decision Trees
O A decision trees shows the relationship of the
problem graphically and can handle complex
situation in a compact form.
The Structure of Mathematical
Models For Decision Support
O Components
O Result (outcome) Variables
O Decision Variables
O Uncontrollable Variables, or Parameters
O Intermediate Result Variable
Mathematical Programming
Optimization
Linear Programming(LP) is the best-known
technique in a family of optimization tools
called mathematical programming
O Mathematical Programming
O Is a family of tools designed to help solve
managerial problems in which the decision
maker must allocate scarce resources among
competing activities to optimize a measurable
goal.
Multiple Goals, Sensitivity Analysis,
What-If Analysis, and Goal Seeking
O Multiple Goals
O Sensitivity Analysis
O Attempts to assess the impact of a change in the
input data or parameters on the proposed
solution.
O What-If analysis
O Is structured as What will happen to the
solution if an input variable, an assumption, or
a parameter value is changed?
O Goal Seeking
O Calculate the values of the inputs necessary to
achieve a desired level of an output
Problem-Solving Search Methods

O Analytical Techniques
O Analythical techniques use mathematical formulas to derive an optimal solution
directly a certain result.
O Algoritms
O Analythical techniques may use algorithms to increase the efficiency of the searc
O Blind Searching
O Blind search tecniques are arbitray search approaches that are not guided
O There are two type:
- a complete enumeration
- a an incomplete
O Heuristic Searching
O Heuristic are the informal, judgemental knwoledge of an application area that constitute
the rules of good judgment the field.
O Heuristic programming is the process of using heuristic in problem solving
Simulation
O Simulation is the appearance of reality. In MSS, simulations is a technique for
conducting experiments with a computer of a management system.
O Advantages Of Simulation
O The theory is fairly straightforward
O A great amount of time compression can be attained, quickly giving a
manager some feel as to long-term effects of many policies
O The Model is built from the managers’s perspective
O -Simulation automatically produce many important performance
measures.
O Simulations is often the only DSS modeling that can readily handle
relatively unstructured problems.
O Disadvatages Of Simulation
O An optimal soluttion cannot be guaranteed, but relatively good ones are
generally found.
O Simulation model consturction can be a slow and costly process, although
newer modeling systems are easier to use than ever
O Simulation is sometimes so easy to explain to managers that analytic
methods are often overlooked.
O The Methodology Of Simulation
O Define the problems
O Construct the simulation model
O Test and validate the model
O Design the experiement
O Conduct the experiment
O Evaluate the results
O Implement the results
O Symulation Types
O Probabilistic Simulation : in probabilistic simulation of the independent
variavles are probabilistic.
O Time-dependent versus time-independent simulation.
O Time -independent refers to a situation in which it is not important to know
exactly when the event ocurred.
O Time – dependent situation is the situtatuon is important to knwo exactly
when tehe event occured
O Visual simulation
Visual Interactive Simulation
O Conventional Simulation Inadequacies
O Visual interactive Simulation
O Visual interactive simulation, also known as visual
interactive problem solving, is a simulation method that
lets decision makers see what the model is doing and how
it interacts with the decision made, as they are made.
O Visual Interactive Models And DSS.
O VIM in DSS has been used in several operations
management decisions. The method consists of priming a
visual interactive model of a plant with the current status
Thank You

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