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1-1 Mcgraw-Hill/Irwin ©2009 The Mcgraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved

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27 views

1-1 Mcgraw-Hill/Irwin ©2009 The Mcgraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved

Uploaded by

Binh Do
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 21

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McGraw-Hill/Irwin ©2009 The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved 1-1


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Chapter 19A

Simulation

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OBJECTIVES
• Definition of Simulation
• Simulation Methodology
• Proposing a New Experiment
• Considerations When Using Computer
Models
• Types of Simulations
• Desirable Features of Simulation
Software
• Advantages & Disadvantages of
Simulation

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Simulation-Defined

• A simulation is a computer-based
model used to run experiments on
a real system
– Typically done on a computer
– Determines reactions to different
operating rules or change in
structure
– Can be used in conjunction with
traditional statistical and
management science techniques

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Start Major Phases in a Simulation Study

Define Problem

Construct Simulation Model


Lets look at each
Specify values of variables and parameters of these steps in
turn…
Run the simulation

Evaluate results

Validation

Propose new experiment

Stop

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Simulation Methodology:Problem Definition

• Specifying the objectives

• Identifying the relevant


controllable and uncontrollable
variables of the system to be
studied

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Constructing a Simulation Model

• Specification of Variables and


Parameters

• Specification of Decision Rules

• Specification of Probability
Distributions

• Specification of Time-
Incrementing Procedure

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Data Collection & Random No. Interval Example

Suppose you timed 20 athletes running the


100-yard dash and tallied the information
into the four time intervals below
You then count the tallies and make a frequency
distribution
Then convert the frequencies into percentages
You then can add the frequencies into a cumulative distribution

Finally, use the percentages to develop the random number intervals

Seconds Tallies Frequency % Accum. % RN Intervals


0-5.99 4 20 20 00-19
6-6.99 10 50 70 20-69
7-7.99 4 20 90 70-89
8 or more 2 10 100 90-99
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Specify Values of Variables and Parameters

• Determination of starting
conditions

• Determination of run
length

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Run the Simulation

• By computer

• Manually

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Evaluate Results

• Conclusions depend on
– the degree to which the model
reflects the real system
– design of the simulation (in a
statistical sense)

• The only true test of a simulation


is how well the real system
performs after the results of the
study have been implemented

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Validation

• Refers to testing the


computer program to ensure
that the simulation is correct

• To insure that the model


results are representative of
the real world system they
seek to model

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Proposing a New Experiment

• Consider changing many of the


factors:
– parameters
– variables
– decision rules
– starting conditions
– run length
• If the initial rules led to poor
results or if these runs yielded new
insights into the problem, then a
new decision rule may be worth
trying
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Considerations When Using Computer Models

• Computer language selection

• Flowcharting

• Coding

• Data generation

• Output reports

• Validation
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Types of Simulation Models

• Continuous
– Based on mathematical equations
– Used for simulating continuous
values for all points in time
– Example: The amount of time a
person spends in a queue
• Discrete
– Used for simulating specific values
or specific points
– Example: Number of people in a
queue

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Desirable Features of Simulation Software

• Be capable of being used interactively as


well as allowing complete runs
• Be user-friendly and easy to understand
• Allow modules to be built and then
connected
• Allow users to write and incorporate their
own routines
• Have building blocks that contain built-in
commands
• Have macro capability, such as the ability
to develop machining cells

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Desirable Features of Simulation Software

• Have material-flow capability


• Output standard statistics such as
cycle times, utilization, and wait
times
• Allow a variety of data analysis
alternatives for both input and output
data
• Have animation capabilities to
display graphically the product flow
through the system
• Permit interactive debugging
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Advantages of Simulation

• Often leads to a better


understanding of the real
system
• Years of experience in the real
system can be compressed into
seconds or minutes
• Simulation does not disrupt
ongoing activities of the real
system
• Simulation is far more general
than mathematical models
• Simulation can be used as a
game for training experience
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Advantages of Simulation (Continued)

• Simulation provides a more realistic


replication of a system than mathematical
analysis
• Simulation can be used to analyze transient
conditions, whereas mathematical
techniques usually cannot
• Many standard packaged models, covering
a wide range of topics, are available
commercially
• Simulation answers what-if questions

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Disadvantages of Simulation

• There is no guarantee that the model will, in fact,


provide good answers
• There is no way to prove reliability
• Building a simulation model can take a great deal
of time
• Simulation may be less accurate than
mathematical analysis because it is randomly
based
• A significant amount of computer time may be
needed to run complex models
• The technique of simulation still lacks a
standardized approach

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End of Chapter 19A

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