Probability 06/08/2019

Learning Intention:
What do you know about probability?

Success Criteria:

• I can construct a Venn diagram.

• I can calculate the probability of an event occurring using a Venn diagram.

Key Words: Probability, Venn diagram, or, and, P(A)

 Starter

8+6 14 9
= =
30 30
30
True
False
False 0.1 0.3
Hint: Mutually exclusive events 1 – (0.1+0.2+0.2+0.1) = 0.4
cannot occur at the same time.
0.2 + 0.1 + 0.2 = 0.6
 Notation
When working with probability, we can use notation that can help us
describe the probability of an event occurring.

P(A) = Probability of Event A

P(A’) = Probability Not A

 Venn Diagrams
A Venn diagram is used to sort data.
For example, these students below we are going to sort into hair colour
and if they wear glasses.
 This is the universal set symbol.
Venn Diagrams It represents all the data.

Rather than drawing pictures, we tend to write numbers to represent

each event. So,
𝜉

becomes becomes

Notice how we have to include how

many are NOT in either of the circles.
 Using a Venn Diagram
We can use a Venn diagram to calculate a probability.
How many children are 4 2
P(brown hair) = =
there altogether? 10 5
3 + 1 + 2 + 4 = 10
3
How many children have P(wears glasses) =
brown hair? 3 + 1 = 4 10
1
How many children wear P(brown hair and wears glasses) =
10
glasses? 1 + 2 = 3
How many children have 4 2
P(not brown hair and doesn’t wear glasses) = =
10 5
brown hair and wear glasses? 1
How many children don’t have
brown hair and don’t wear glasses? 4
Example
A card is selected at random from a pack of 52 playing cards. Let A be
the event that the card is and ace and D the event that the card is a
diamond. Find: There are 13 diamonds of which 1 is an Ace
a) P(A and D) There are 4 aces of which 1 is a diamond
b) P(A or D) There are 52 playing cards,
c) P(A’) 52 – (3 + 1 + 12) = 36 left
𝜉
d) P(A’ and D) A D

3 1 12

36
Example
A card is selected at random from a pack of 52 playing cards. Let A be
the event that the card is and ace and D the event that the card is a
diamond. Find:
This is the middle of the Venn diagram: 1
a) P(A and D)
52
b) P(A or D)
This is the either an ace or a diamond, not forgetting both:
c) P(A’)
3 + 1 + 12 16 𝜉
d) P(A’ and D)
52
= A D
52
3 1 12

36
Example
A card is selected at random from a pack of 52 playing cards. Let A be
the event that the card is and ace and D the event that the card is a
diamond. Find: 48
12 + 36
a) P(A and D) This is the everything that does not involve A: 52
=
52
b) P(A or D) 12
This is not an ace but is a diamond (can’t include the middle): =
c) P(A’) 52
𝜉
d) P(A’ and D) A D

3 1 12

36
Example
In a class of 30 students, 7 are in the choir, 5 are in the school band and 2
students are in the choir and the band. A student is chosen at random from the
class. Find the probability that: There are 2 students who are in both
a) The student is not in the band. There are 5 in the school band but we
b) The student is not in the choir nor already have 2 so 5 – 2 = 3
in the band.
There are 7 in the choir but we already 𝜉
have 2 so 7 – 2 = 5 B C

There are 30 students overall but we 3 2 5

already have 3 + 2 + 5 = 10 so
30 – 10 = 20 that are in neither. 20
Example
In a class of 30 students, 7 are in the choir, 5 are in the school band and 2
students are in the choir and the band. A student is chosen at random from the
class. Find the probability that:
This is everything that doesn’t involve the band:
a) The student is not in the band. 5 + 20 25
b) The student is not in the choir nor 30
=
30
in the band.
𝜉
20
This can’t be in the band or the choir: = B C
30
3 2 5

20
Example
A vet surveys 100 of her clients. She finds that: 11 – 7 = 4
25 own dogs 25-(8+7+4)=6 15 own cats and dogs 15 – 7 = 8 11 own dogs and tropical fish
53 own cats 53-(8+7+3)=35 10 own cats and tropical fish 7 own dogs, cats and tropical fish
40 own tropical fish 40–(4+7+3)= 26 10 – 7 = 3
A client is chosen at random, find the probability that the client: 𝜉
a) Owns dogs only. D C
Don’t forget to complete 8
b) Does not own tropical fish. 6 35
the full set:
c) Does not own dogs, cats or 7
tropical fish. 6+8+35+4+7+3+26 = 89 4 3
100 – 89 = 11
NOTE: With questions like this where there 26
F 11
are multiple , categories START WITH THE
SECTION WHERE ALL SECTIONS OVERLAP (the
yellow section) and WORK BACKWARDS
Example
A vet surveys 100 of her clients. She finds that:
25 own dogs 15 own cats and dogs 11 own dogs and tropical fish
53 own cats 10 own cats and tropical fish 7 own dogs, cats and tropical fish
40 own tropical fish
A client is chosen at random, find the probability that the client: 𝜉
D C
6 8
a) Owns dogs only. Can’t involve fish or cats: = 6 35
100
7
b) Does not own tropical fish. But could still be a cat or a dog 4 3
or nothing: 6+8+35+11
c) Does not own dogs, cats or = 26
100 11
tropical fish. 60 F
11
= =
100 100
Your Go!
a) Hitting
0.1 +with
0.1 =the
0.2first shot b) Hitting with
0.1 +the
0.2second
= 0.3 shot 0.1 +with
c) Hitting 0.1 both
+ 0.2shots
= 0.4 d) Not hitting
0.6either shot

14 6 8 1
a) b) c) d)
25 25 25 25

15 10 10 54
a) b) c) d)
125 125 125 125
Additional Questions
 Problem Solving
At Newton School there are 27 students in class 10 1b.
17 students play tennis, 11 play basketball and 2 play neither game.
How many students play both tennis and basketball?
𝜉 As 2 is on the outside, there are 25 left for the circles.
T B
But 17 and 11 can’t go straight in to the circles as there
is the intersection.
Tennis + ? + Basket = 25
2 17 + 0 + 11 Does not equal 25
16 + 1 + 10 Does not equal 25
15 + 2 + 9 Does not equal 25
14 + 3 + 8 Equals 25
So students that play both is 3.
 Problem Solving
At Newton School there are 27 students in class 10 1b.
17 students play tennis, 11 play basketball and 2 play neither game.
How many students play both tennis and basketball?
𝜉 As 2 is on the outside, there are 25 left for the circles.
T B
Alternatively, lets call the intersection 𝑥.
17 – 𝑥 𝑥 11 – 𝑥 So tennis is left with 17 – 𝑥
And basketball is left with 11 – 𝑥
2
We know that all three parts of the circles add to 25
So 17 – 𝑥 + 𝑥 + 11 – 𝑥 = 25
Simplifying the LHS: 28 – 𝑥 = 25
So students that play both, 𝑥, is 3.
 Problem Solving
David is organising a family reunion. They can take part in two activities – archery
or paintball. David shows the results on a Venn diagram.

Archery costs £22 and paintball costs £18. David collects £524 to pay for the
activities. How may sign up for both activities?
Archery: 22 x 9 = £198 Total for both activities: 22 + 18 = 40
Paintball: 18 x 7 = £126 200 ÷ 40 = 5
Total so far: 198 + 126 = £324
So 5 people paid for both.
Total so left: 524 – 324 = £200
Reflection
Write at least once sentence summarising which of the learning intentions
you have made progress with in today’s lesson.

Success Criteria:

• I can construct a Venn diagram.

• I can calculate the probability of an event occurring using a Venn diagram.