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Hillier 10e Chlibro02

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146 views23 pages

Hillier 10e Chlibro02

libro

Uploaded by

Oscar Casallas
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Chapter 2

Overview of the Operations


Research Modeling
Approach
Frederick S. HillierEducation.
∎ Gerald J. Lieberman © 2015 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
© 2015 McGraw-Hill All rights reserved.
2.1 Defining the Problem and Gathering
Data
• Elements of problem definition
– Identify the appropriate objectives
– Identify constraints
– Identify interrelationships with other areas of
the organization
– Identify alternative courses of action
– Define the time constraints

© 2015 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 2


Defining the Problem and Gathering Data

• OR team typically works in an advisory


capacity
– Management makes the final decisions
• Identify the decision maker
– Probe his/her thinking regarding objectives
• Objectives need to be specific
– Also aligned with organizational objectives

© 2015 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 3


Defining the Problem and Gathering Data

• Example of an objective in a for-profit


organization
– Maximum profit in the long run
• More typical objective
– Satisfactory profit combined with other
defined objective

© 2015 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 4


Defining the Problem and Gathering Data

• Parties affected by a business firm


operating in a single country
– Stockholders (owners)
– Employees
– Customers
– Suppliers
– Government (nation)
• International firms obligated to follow
socially responsible practices
© 2015 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 5
Defining the Problem and Gathering Data

• Gathering relevant data necessary for:


– Complete problem understanding
– Input into mathematical models
• Problem: too little data available
– Solution: build management information
system to collect data
• Problem: too much data available
– Solution: data mining methods

© 2015 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 6


2.2 Formulating a Mathematical Model

• Models
– Idealized representations
– Examples: model airplanes, portraits, globes
• Mathematical models
– Expressed in terms of mathematical symbols
– Example: Newton’s Law: F = ma
• Mathematical model of a business
problem
– Expressed as system of equations
© 2015 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 7
Formulating a Mathematical Model

• Decision variables
– Represent the decisions to be made
– Examples: x1, x2, ….xn
• Objective function
– Performance measure expressed as a
function of the decision variables
– Example: profit, P
𝑃 = 3𝑥1 + 2𝑥2 + ⋯ 5𝑥𝑛

© 2015 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 8


Formulating a Mathematical Model

• Constraints
– Mathematical expressions for the restrictions
– Often expressed as inequalities
– Example:
𝑥1 + 3𝑥1𝑥2 + 2𝑥2 ≤ 10
• Constants in the equations called
parameters of the model
– Example: the number 10 in the above
equation

© 2015 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 9


Formulating a Mathematical Model

• Determining parameter values


– Often difficult
– Done by gathering data
• Typical expression of the problem
– Choose values of decision variables so as to
maximize the objective function
• Subject to the specified constraints
• Real problems often do not have a single
“right” model
© 2015 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 10
Formulating a Mathematical Model

• What are the advantages of a


mathematical model over a verbal
description of the problem?
– More concise
– Reveals important cause and effect
relationships
– Clearly indicates what data is relevant
– Forms a bridge to use computers for analysis

© 2015 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 11


Formulating a Mathematical Model

• What are the disadvantages of


mathematical models?
– Often must simplify assumptions to make
problem solvable
• Judging a model’s validity
– Desire high correlation between model’s
prediction and real-world outcome
– Testing (validation phase)
– Multiple objectives may be combined into an
overall measure of performance
© 2015 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 12
2.3 Deriving Solutions from the Model

• Sometimes a relatively simple step


• Algorithms applied in a computer using a
commercially-available software package
• Search for the optimal solution
– Common theme in OR problems
– Recognize that the solution is optimal only
with respect to model being used
– More common goal: seek a satisfactory
solution, rather than the optimal
© 2015 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 13
Deriving Solutions from the Model

• Postoptimality analysis
– Analysis done after finding an optimal solution
– Very important part of most OR studies
– Also called “what-if” analysis
• What would happen if different assumptions were
made?
• Sensitivity analysis
– Determines which variables affect the solution
the most

© 2015 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 14


2.4 Testing the Model

• Model validation
– Process of testing model output and
improving the model until satisfied with output
• Computer program analogy
– Find and correct major bugs
– Determine flaws in the model
• Example of flaws:
– Factors that were not incorporated
– Parameters that were estimated incorrectly
© 2015 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 15
Testing the Model

• Process varies with the model


• Check for dimensional consistency of units
– In all mathematical expressions
• Vary values of parameters and/or decision
variables
– See if output behaves in a plausible way

© 2015 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 16


Testing the Model

• Retrospective test
– Uses historical data to reconstruct the past
– Determines how well the model and solution
would have performed
• If it had been used
• Disadvantages of the retrospective test
– Uses same data as used to formulate the
model
– The past may not be indicative of the future
© 2015 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 17
2.5 Preparing to Apply the Model

• Install a well-documented system for


applying the model
– Includes the model, solution procedure, and
implementation procedures
– Usually computer-based
• Databases and management information
systems
– Provide up-to-date model input

© 2015 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 18


Preparing to Apply the Model

• Decision-support system
– Interactive, computer-based system
– Helps managers use data and models to
support their decision-making

© 2015 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 19


2.6 Implementation

• Benefits of the study are reaped during


implementation phase
• Important for OR team to participate in
launch
– To make sure model is correctly translated
• Success of implementation depends on
support from:
– Top management
– Operations management
© 2015 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 20
Implementation

• Steps in the implementation phase


– OR gives management explanation of new
system
• How does it relate to operating realities?
– Develop procedures to put system into
operation
• Responsibility of OR team and management
– Initiate new course of action
– OR team evaluates initial experience
– Gather feedback
© 2015 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 21
Implementation

• Steps in the implementation phase


(cont’d.)
– Document methodology
• Work should be reproducible
– Periodically revisit assumptions

© 2015 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 22


2.7 Conclusions

• Subsequent chapters focus on


constructing and solving mathematical
models
• Phases described in the chapter are
equally important
• There are always exceptions to the “rules”
– OR requires innovation and ingenuity

© 2015 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 23

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