DECISION MAKING SYSTEMS

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P K M O H A PAT R A
How to Understand How to Improve
Yourself Better Yourself

RELATIONSHIP
MATRIX

How to Understand
How to Improve Others
Others Better
 How to How to Improve
Understand
Yourself
Yourself better

RELATIONSHIP
MATRIX

How to Understand
How to Improve Others
Others Better
 The Flow model  The Personal Performance

 The Johari window Model

 The Cognitive Dissonance model  The Personal Potential Trap

 The Unimaginable model  The Hard Choice Model

 The Energy model  The Cognitive Bias

 Political compass  The Crossroads model

The Flow model
 Intensely focussed on any activity Over two thousand years ago
 Of our own choosing
Aristotle came to the unsurprising
 Neither under challenging nor over challenging
 A clear objective conclusion that what a person
 Immediate feedback wants above all is to be happy.

It has been found that people who are in the flow not only they feel a profound sense of
satisfaction, they also lost track of time and forget themselves completely because they are
completely immersed in what they ae doing.
The Johari Window
The Johari Window model is a
simple and useful tool for
illustrating and improving self-
awareness, and mutual
understanding between individuals
within a group.

The Johari Window model can also

be used to assess and improve a
group's relationship with other
groups.
The Cognitive Dissonance Model
Cognitive dissonance ATTITUDE ATTITUDE
refers to a situation Smoking is Smoking is injurious
involving conflicting injurious to health but it helps me relax
attitudes, beliefs or
behaviors. This produces a
feeling of mental Behavior Behavior
discomfort leading to an
I smoke I smoke
alteration in one of the
attitudes, beliefs or
behaviors to reduce the
discomfort and restore Cognitive
consistency
balance. dissonance
The Unimaginable Model
It shows that, one may have beliefs despite not understanding the evidence and one may
believe despite having no evidence to support it.
The Energy Model
The Political Compass
Political Ideology can measured along two separate and independent axes. The
economic (left–right) axis measures one's opinion of how the economy should be run.
The other axis (authoritarian–libertarian) measures one's political opinions in a social
sense, regarding the amount of personal freedom that one would allow.
The Personal Performance Model
 HAVE TO : To what extent are
my current tasks being imposed
on me
 ABLE TO : To what extent my
present tasks match with my
abilities
 WANT TO : To what extent my
present task correspond to what I
really want

 What do you want

 Are you able to do what you want to do
 What are you able to do
 Do you want what you are able to do
The Personal Potential Trap

The Model Shows 3

curves:
 My Own Expectations
 Expectations of Others
 My Achievements

If the 3 diverge too much,

you will fall into the
personal potential trap
The Hard Choice Model
Easy to Compare: No • One Alternative is better than the other but it doesn't not play a big role if we
Consequence make the wrong decision

Difficult to Compare: • The one option is better in one sense, the other in another, but they aren’t
really comparable. This makes the decision difficult, even if its actually not that
Slight Consequence important. E.g.: Shall we go the party or get up an early morning?

Easy to Compare: Big • When we discover that there is only one operation that could save our life,
Consequence we face a big decision- but it is easy to make since there is no real alternative

Difficult to Compare: • Starting a family, Changing a job. With these hard choices, there is no right
decision. Whatever decision you make in the end, you need to support it with
Big Consequence subjective arguments. Rational weighing up will not help you in this situation.
The Cognitive Bias
Cognitive bias is a limitation in objective thinking that is caused by the tendency for
the human brain to perceive information through a filter of personal experience and
preferences.The filtering process is called heuristics.
The Crossroads Model
How to Understand How to Improve
Yourself
Better Yourself

RELATIONSHIP
MATRIX

How to Understand
How to Improve Others
Others Better
 The Eisenhower Matrix  The Yes No Rule

 The SWOT Analysis  The Choice over Load

 The BCG Box  The Gift Model

 Feedback Analysis  Thinking Outside the Box

 John Whitmore Model  The Consequences Model

 The Rubber Band Model  The Stop Rule

 Feedback Box  Buyers Decision Model

The Eisenhower Matrix
We need to focus on important
ones . When will we have time to
do important ones before it
becomes urgent.

The US President Dwight

Eisenhower once said most
urgent decisions are rarely the
most important ones.
The SWOT Analysis
SWOT (strengths, weaknesses,
opportunities, and threats) analysis is a
framework used to evaluate a
company's competitive position and to
develop strategic planning. SWOT
analysis assesses internal and external
factors, as well as current and future
potential.
The BCG Matrix
BCG matrix is a framework to evaluate the strategic position of the business brand
portfolio and its potential. It classifies business portfolio into four categories based on
industry attractiveness (growth rate of that industry) and competitive position
(relative market share).
Feedback Analysis
 Pay attention to your thoughts
because they become words ADVICE COMPLIMENT
I thought it was I thought it was good
 Pay attention to your words as good but it needs and it can stay as it is in
some changes future
they become actions

 Pay attention to your actions as

they become habits
CRITICISM
 Pay attention to your habits as I thought it was SUGGESTION
bad and it has to I thought it was bad
they become your character change but it may remain

 Pay attention to your character

as this is your life
The Gift Model
The Rubber Band Model
If you have to decide between two good options, ask yourself what is holding you, and
what is pulling you

This model is most appropriately

used when there is a decision to be
made with two
opposing options:

Stay here or go there;

take this job of remain in current
employment
Choose a new option or
maintain the status quo
The Stop Rule
The Stop Rule is a universally applicable alternative to the often tortuous process of
weighing up a situation and deciding which direction or choice to make. It's a cognitive
tool for deciding whether to continue or stop an action on the basis of the present
information, process and past events.

 Simple rules are more effective than complex It is an art to recognise

rules
 The beauty of stop rules is that they are the boundaries between
unconditional. They prevent headaches and even
cowardice and madness
save lives
 Mountaineers use stop rules to ensure their safe reinhold messener
return. For example, if we do not reach the
summit by 2 pm, we turn around. When such a
stop rule was broken on Mt. Everest in 1996 eight
people died
Buyer’s Decision Model
Establish a • The Problem of Research is that we never know enough but quickly know too much. The
Research more you know, the more secured you feel. But eventually you reach a tipping point, knowing
too much. Set Yourself your own limits.
Theory

• Don’t look for your perfect product. Look for the product which requires your basic
Lower your requirement. Even if it isn’t your best choice, it will make you a lot happier than the product’s
Expectations absence. Put your 5 most important criteria for the product in order of your priority. Delet
the last 2.

Don’t • Most decisions are not as lasting as we think in the moment of making them. Use 10-10-10
decision. What consequences will my decision have in 10 days. What consequences will it have
Worry in 10 months. What consequences will it have in 10 years.

Let
Somebody • While making decisions on our own, we are often left with nagging doubts that it may not be
the best possible choice. This doubt goes away if someone else decides for us. Ask your
Else Decide friends, family, seller decide the best product for you.
for you
How to Understand How to Improve
Yourself Better Yourself

RELATIONSHIP
MATRIX

How to
Understand How to Improve Others
Others Better
 The Rumsfeld Matrix  The Conflict Resolution Model

 The Swiss Cheese Model  The Black Swan model

 The Maslow Pyramids  The Chasm The Diffusion Model

 Pareto Principle  The Black Box Model

 The Long Tail model  Prisoner’s Dilemma

The Rumsfeld Matrix
The Rumsfeld Matrix
illustrates both the
“comfort” that comes
from working in the
lower left quadrant
where all is known, as
well as the complexity
with working in the top
right.
The Swiss Cheese Model
 How mistakes happen
 Everyone makes mistakes. Some learn from them others learn from others
mistakes. Some repeats it.
 Different types of mistakes
 Real mistakes when wrong process is followed
 Black outs occur when part of the process is forgotten
 Sip ups occur when the right process is followed incorrectly
 There are several levels of mistakes
 Skill level / rule based level / knowledge level
 There are various factors contribute to mistakes
 People / technology / organisational requirement / outside influences time, eco
climate, mood, weather
The Maslow Model
Needs lower down in the hierarchy must be satisfied before individuals can attend to
needs higher up. From the bottom of the hierarchy upwards, the needs are:
physiological, safety, love and belonging, esteem and self-actualization.

The first four levels are often

referred to as deficiency
needs (D-needs), and the top
level is known as growth or
being needs (B-needs).
The Long Tail Model
 The long tail is a statistical pattern of distribution that occurs when a larger share of
occurrences occur farther away from the center or head of distribution.
 This means that a long tail distribution includes many values that are far away from the mean
value.
 In an economic context, this signifies that more products are purchased that are different
from the most mainstream products.

The Mass market wants best-

sellers, but there’s also a
demand for niche products.
Individual demand may be low,
but collectively the niche
products are worth more than
the best sellers
The Conflict Resolution Model: 1/3

Our Failures are not due to the defeats but to the conflicts we do not participate in.
The Conflict Resolution Model: 2/3
The Conflict Resolution Model: 3/3
Conflict has to be dealt with, in order to prevent  Evade Responsibilty- Those who get
deadlockand and restore stability and overwhelmed with the conflict try to avoid
communication. In Principle, there are 6 different confrontation and decision making, and thus
ways of dealing with a conflict situation- Escape,
delegate their responsibity to a higher authority, in
Flight, Give up, Evade Responsibilty, Compromise or
Reach a Consensus. a hope of winning the situation. But, there is a risk
that the both the parties may lose. Lose-Lose
Situation.
 Escape- Same as Avoiding. The conflict is not
dealt with, and the situation remains the
 Compromise- A compromise is a solution
same. Lose-Lose Situation.
acceptable to both parties. It is often felt that,
although the solution isn’t ideal, it is reasonable in
 Fight- Conquering the opponent, and
the circumstances. Win/Lose-Win/Lose Situation.
asserting one’s own position in the face of
resistance from others. Win-Lose Situation
 Consensus- It is based on a new solution that has
been developed by the both parties. It is third way
 Give up- Those who give up their position
for both the parties, as nobody has to back down.
solve it by retreating. Lose-Win Situation
Win-Win Situation.
The Black Swan Model
 A black swan is an extremely rare event with severe consequences. It cannot be predicted beforehand,
though many claim it should be predictable after the fact.

 Black swan events can cause catastrophic damage to an economy, and because they cannot be
predicted, can only be prepared for by building robust systems.

 Reliance on standard forecasting tools can both fail to predict and potentially increase vulnerability to
black swans by propagating risk and offering false security.

HOW TO TACKLE IT ??
 Identifying the Black Swan and its Impact When 2 Boeing Airliners were flown into
• Avoiding Self-Delusion the World Trade Center, the public was
• Handling Unk-Unks, i.e. the potential Unknowns shocked, the catastrophe seemed to
 Determining Likelihood strike completely without warning.
• Getting a handle on the likelihood of rare events However, in the weeks and months
• Dealing with Subjective and Quasi-objective following the event, it seemed that,
Probabilities
practically everything had pointed
 Identifying a Risk-Response Strategy towards this attack.
The Black Box Model
As the world gets more fast-paced and complex, the amount that we really know and
grasp decreases all the time. We are increasingly surrounded by the black boxes that
we do not understand even if they are explained to us. We cannot comprehend the
inner processes of black box, but, we integrate their inputs and outputs into our
systems.

We tend to assign more

importance to those who can
explain something than to
their actual explanation.

Advancements in computing power, big data applications and now Artificial Intelligence
and Machine Learning are further adding mystique of Black Box models using
sophisticated Quantitative Methods. In the future, it will be the norm to convince
people with images and emotion than with actual arguments.
Prisoner’s Dilemma : Game Theor y
The prisoner's dilemma is a
paradox in decision analysis in
which two individuals acting in
their own self-interests do not
produce the optimal outcome. The
prisoner’s dilemma demonstrates
that two rational people might not
cooperate even if it is in their best
interest to do so.

You and your accomplice are on trial, If only one confess, your accomplice will serve 10 years. If you both remain silent,
You will both serve 1 year. If both of you confess, you will both serve 5 years.You are interrogated in a separate room.
How to Understand How to Improve
Yourself Better Yourself

RELATIONSHIP
MATRIX

How to Understand How to Improve

Others Better Others
 The Result Optimisation Level

 The Project Management Triangle

 The Team Model

 The Hersey Blanchard Model Situational Leadership

 The Role playing model Belbin and de bano

 The Expectation Model

 How will you decide in future??

The Result Optimisation Model
WHY THE PRINTER ALWAYS BREAKS DOWN JUST BEFORE A
DEADLINE ??

In any project management model, within a stipulated

time, ideas are Gathered (G) and Consolidated (C)
and concept is Selected and Implemented (I). In real
life, we always are shortage of time, and sometimes
even reduced by unforeseen events like a printer
breaking down.

The Result Optmisation Model divides the available

time into 3 sequences (loops) of equal length, thereby
forcing the project manager to complete the project
3 times. The Idea is to improve the outcome in each
successive working loop. This leads to improved
output quality as well as successful final outcome.
The Project Management Triangle
The 3 Success Factors giverning the Service Industry are- Good , Cheap OR Fast. It
is only possible to offer the 2 out of 3.

Good and Fast is Expensive.

Fast and Cheap is Bad.
Good and Cheap is Slow.

When you manage a project, the same 3 success criteria apply:

 OBJECTIVE (What do I want to achieve, and in what quality?)

 DURATION (What is my Time Frame? )
 EXPENDITURE (What is the maximum I can spend in terms of money and
Resources? )
But the reality rarely lives up to the plan. Perhaps, the project needs to be completed
faster- you need more resources. Or it needs to be cheaper- the quality will suffer. Or
you want to provide the best quality- you need more time.
The Team Model
The best executive is the
one who has sense enough
to pick good men to do
what he wants done and will
restraint enough to keep
from meddling with them
while they do.

Work team management

or supervision is often
identified as a primary
reason why self-
management teams fail to
properly develop
Hersey Blanchard Model Situational Leadership 1/2
PARTICIPATING STYLE: A low-task, high-relationship style
that emphasizes shared ideas and decisions. Managers use it
with moderate followers who are experienced but with
those who aren't as confident to do the tasks assigned.

SELLING STYLE high-task, high-relationship style, in

which the leader attempts to sell his ideas to the group
by explaining task directions in a persuasive manner. This
is used with moderate followers.

DELEGATING STYLE: A low-task, low-relationship style

where the leader allows the group to take responsibility for
task decisions.This is best used with high maturity followers.

TELLING STYLE: high-task, low-relationship style

wherein the leader gives explicit directions and
supervises work closely. This style is geared toward low
maturity followers.
Hersey Blanchard Model Situational Leadership 2/2
The Former US President Barack Obama used this formula to decide for or against a drone strike
Artificial Intelligence for the Real World
W H E R E TO I N V E S T ? ? Decision1: Decision2 :
Futuristic Current
In 2013, IBM’s Watson Cognitive
System started the ‘Moon shot’
Project, aimed to diagnose and
recommend Cancer forms. Cost
roughly $62 Million.

New Systems introduced to perform

less ambitious jobs, resulted in-
 Increased Patient Satisfaction
 Improved Financial Performance
 Data Entry Time Reduced
 Enhance Business Process

Business Dilemma: Choosing between Highly Ambitious Moon shots and Low Hanging Fruits
Way Forward