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Chapter 6

Probability can be defined as a fraction or proportion that measures the likelihood of obtaining a specific sample from a population. It is determined by comparing the frequency of an outcome to the total number of possible outcomes. Probability and the normal distribution are related, as z-scores can be used to determine the proportion and probability associated with a given score. The binomial distribution models outcomes of binary events like coin tosses, and can also be approximated by the normal distribution for large sample sizes. Probability provides the foundation for inferential statistics by linking samples to populations.

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20 views

Chapter 6

Probability can be defined as a fraction or proportion that measures the likelihood of obtaining a specific sample from a population. It is determined by comparing the frequency of an outcome to the total number of possible outcomes. Probability and the normal distribution are related, as z-scores can be used to determine the proportion and probability associated with a given score. The binomial distribution models outcomes of binary events like coin tosses, and can also be approximated by the normal distribution for large sample sizes. Probability provides the foundation for inferential statistics by linking samples to populations.

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Baby malik
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Chapter 6: Probability

1
Probability
• Probability is a method for measuring and
quantifying the likelihood of obtaining a
specific sample from a specific population.
• We define probability as a fraction or a
proportion.
• The probability of any specific outcome is
determined by a ratio comparing the
frequency of occurrence for that outcome
relative to the total number of possible
outcomes.
2
Probability (cont.)
• Whenever the scores in a population are
variable it is impossible to predict with perfect
accuracy exactly which score or scores will be
obtained when you take a sample from the
population.
• In this situation, researchers rely on probability
to determine the relative likelihood for specific
samples.
• Thus, although you may not be able to predict
exactly which value(s) will be obtained for a
sample, it is possible to determine which
outcomes have high probability and which have
low probability.
4
Probability (cont.)
• Probability is determined by a fraction or
proportion.
• When a population of scores is
represented by a frequency distribution,
probabilities can be defined by proportions
of the distribution.
• In graphs, probability can be defined as a
proportion of area under the curve.

5
Probability and the Normal
Distribution
• If a vertical line is drawn through a normal
distribution, several things occur.
1. The exact location of the line can be
specified by a z-score.
2. The line divides the distribution into
two sections. The larger section is
called the body and the smaller section
is called the tail.

6
Probability and the Normal
Distribution (cont.)
• The unit normal table lists several different
proportions corresponding to each z-score
location.
– Column A of the table lists z-score values.
– For each z-score location, columns B and C list the
proportions in the body and tail, respectively.
– Finally, column D lists the proportion between the
mean and the z-score location.
• Because probability is equivalent to proportion,
the table values can also be used to determine
probabilities.
7
Probability and the Normal
Distribution (cont.)
• To find the probability corresponding to a
particular score (X value), you first transform the
score into a z-score, then look up the z-score in
the table and read across the row to find the
appropriate proportion/probability.
• To find the score (X value) corresponding to a
particular proportion, you first look up the
proportion in the table, read across the row to
find the corresponding z-score, and then
transform the z-score into an X value.
9
Percentiles and Percentile Ranks
• The percentile rank for a specific X value
is the percentage of individuals with
scores at or below that value.
• When a score is referred to by its rank,
the score is called a percentile. The
percentile rank for a score in a normal
distribution is simply the proportion to the
left of the score.

10
Probability and the Binomial
Distribution
• Binomial distributions are formed by a series of
observations (for example, 100 coin tosses) for
which there are exactly two possible outcomes
(heads and tails).
• The two outcomes are identified as A and B, with
probabilities of p(A) = p and p(B) = q.
• The distribution shows the probability for each
value of X, where X is the number of
occurrences of A in a series of n observations.

12
Probability and the Binomial
Distribution (cont.)
• When pn and qn are both greater than 10,
the binomial distribution is closely
approximated by a normal distribution with
a mean of μ = pn and a standard
deviation of σ = npq.
• In this situation, a z-score can be
computed for each value of X and the unit
normal table can be used to determine
probabilities for specific outcomes.

13
Probability and Inferential Statistics
• Probability is important because it
establishes a link between samples and
populations.
• For any known population it is possible to
determine the probability of obtaining any
specific sample.
• In later chapters we will use this link as the
foundation for inferential statistics.

15
Probability and Inferential Statistics (cont.)
• The general goal of inferential statistics is to use
the information from a sample to reach a general
conclusion (inference) about an unknown
population.
• Typically a researcher begins with a sample.
• If the sample has a high probability of being
obtained from a specific population, then the
researcher can conclude that the sample is likely
to have come from that population.
• If the sample has a very low probability of being
obtained from a specific population, then it is
reasonable for the researcher to conclude that
the specific population is probably not the
source for the sample. 16

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