FBPM2 Chapter07 QuantitativeProcessAnalysis
FBPM2 Chapter07 QuantitativeProcessAnalysis
Contents
1. Flow Analysis
2. Queuing Analysis
3. Simulation
4. Recap
SEITE 1
Process Analysis in the BPM Lifecycle
Management Processes
les for BPM lifecycle and process mining identification Core Processes
A E
D
5m 3m 5m 10m 30m 2h 10m
15m
C
1.5h 10min
Conformance and Process As-is process
performance
discovery model
insights
A B C D E
Process Process
monitoring analysis
Executable Insights on
process weaknesses and
model their impact
Process Process
implementation To-be process redesign
model
Chapter 7: Quantitative Process Analysis
Contents
1. Flow Analysis
2. Queuing Analysis
3. Simulation
4. Recap
SEITE 3
4
Flow analysis
Process
model
Process
performance
Performance
of each
activity
Refresher: Process performance measures
Time
Process
perform
ance
Quality Cost
6
Cycle
process instance
time
Waiting
time
Time taken by
non-value-adding
activities
7
Cycle
Processi Cycle Time
ng Time Time Efficienc
y
8
1 day 1 day
1 day 3 days
3 days 2 days
Sequence – Example
Cycle time = 10 + 20 = 30
Example: Alternative Paths
50
90
%
50
10
%
Cycletime
Cycle time==10
10++0.9*20+0.1*10
(20+10)/2 = 25=
29
Example: Parallel paths
Cycle time = 10 + 20 = 30
Example: Rework loop
80%
100%
1%
0%
99%
20%
Cycle time = 10 + 20 = 30
Cycle time = 10 + 20/0.01 = 2010
Cycle time = 10 + 20/0.8 = 35
Flow analysis equations for cycle time
T1 T2 ... TN
CT = T1+T2+…+ TN
T1
p1
T2
p2
CT = p1*T1+p2*T2+…+ pn*TN
pn ...
TN
T1
TN
1-r
T
CT = T / (1-r)
r
14
1 day 1 day
20% 60
%
80%
1 day 3 days 40
%
3 days 2 days
0.5 hour 2
hours
20% 60
%
80%
2 hours 2 hours 40
%
3 hours 0.5 mins.
We have seen how to use flow analysis for processing & cycle time calculation
Flow analysis can also be applied to calculate:
The average cost of process instances (assuming we know the cost of each activity)
Cf. Section 7.1.6
The number of times on average each activity is executed
Can be used to calculate the “unit load” of each task, the resource utilization of each
resource pool, and the theoretical capacity of an “as is” process
Cf. Section 7.1.5
Resource utilization
Time
Time spent
available
per Resource
per
resource on utilization
resource for
process
process
work
work
Resource
utilization Waiting
time
Contents
1. Flow Analysis
2. Queuing Analysis
3. Simulation
4. Recap
SEITE 24
25
Queuing Analysis
Deterministic traffic
Variable but
spaced apart
traffic
© Dimitri P. Bertsekas
27
© Dimitri P. Bertsekas
28
© Dimitri P. Bertsekas
29
c m
Basic characteristics:
(mean arrival rate) = average number of arrivals per time unit
m (mean service rate) = average number of jobs that can be handled by
one server per time unit:
c = number of servers
c m
Wq,Lq
W,L
M/M/1 queue
1 m
Assumptions:
• time between arrivals and
Capacity Demand λ
processing time follow a ρ
negative exponential Available Capacity μ
distribution
• 1 server (c = 1)
• FIFO
L=r/(1- r) Lq= r2/(1- r) = L-r
W=L/=1/(m- ) Wq=Lq/= /( m(m- ))
M/M/c queue
• Now there are c servers in parallel, so the expected
capacity per time unit is then c*m
Capacity Demand
r
Available Capacity c * m
W=Wq+(1/m)
Tool Support
( / m ) c r
Lq ( n c) Pn ... P
2 0
n c c!(1 r)
1
c1 ( / m) n ( / m)c 1
P0
1 ( /(cm)
n 0 n! c!
Consider using a tool, e.g.
http://www.supositorio.com/rcalc/rcalclite.htm
http://queueingtoolpak.org/ (for Excel)
36
Situation
Patients arrive according to a Poisson process with intensity ( the time
between arrivals is exp() distributed.
The service time (the doctor’s examination and treatment time of a patient)
follows an exponential distribution with mean 1/m (=exp(m) distributed)
The ER can be modeled as an M/M/c system where c = the number of
doctors
Data gathering
= 2 patients per hour
m = 3 patients per hour
Question
– Should the capacity be increased from 1 to 2 doctors?
Interpretation
To be in the queue = to be in the waiting room
To be in the system = to be in the ER (waiting or under treatment)
Can be used to analyze waiting times (and hence cycle times), but not cost or
quality measures
Suitable for analyzing one single activity at a time, performed by one single
resource pool. Not suitable for analyzing end-to-end processes consisting of
multiple activities performed by multiple resource pools.
These limitations are addressed by process simulation
Chapter 7: Quantitative Process Analysis
Contents
1. Value-Added Analysis
2. Queuing analysis
3. Simulation
4. Recap
SEITE 39
40
Process Simulation
Process Simulation
Define a
Model the Run the
simulation
process simulation
scenario
Example
43
Example
44
Elements of a simulation scenario
1. Processing times of activities
Fixed value
Probability distribution
45
Exponential Distribution
46
Normal Distribution
47
Fixed
Rare, can be used to approximate case where the activity
processing time varies very little
Example: a task performed by a software application
Normal
Repetitive activities
Example: “Check completeness of an application”
Exponential
Complex activities that may involve analysis or decisions
Example: “Assess an application”
48
Simulation Example
Normal(10m, 2m)
Normal(10m, 2m)
0m
Exp(20m)
0.3
0.7
0.3
35m 55m
Resource pools
Name
Size of the resource pool
Cost per time unit of a resource in the pool
Availability of the pool (working calendar)
Examples
Clerk Credit Officer
€ 25 per hour € 25 per hour
Monday-Friday, 9am-5pm Monday-Friday, 9am-5pm
In some tools, it is possible to define cost and calendar per resource,
rather than for entire resource pool
53
Elements of a simulation model
1. Processing times of activities
Fixed value
Probability distribution
2. Conditional branching probabilities
3. Arrival rate of process instances and probability distribution
Typically exponential distribution with a given mean inter-arrival time
Arrival calendar, e.g. Monday-Friday, 9am-5pm, or 24/7
4. Resource pools
5. Assignment of tasks to resource pools
54
Clerk Officer
Syste
m
Officer
Clerk Officer
55
Process Simulation
✔ ✔ ✔
Define a
Model the Run the
simulation
process simulation
scenario
Process Simulation
✔ ✔ ✔
Define a
Model the Run the
simulation
process simulation
scenario
✔
Repeat for Analyze the
alternative simulation
scenarios outputs
58
ARIS
Bizagi Process Modeler
ITP Commerce Process Modeler for Visio
Logizian
Oracle BPA
Progress Savvion Process Modeler
ProSim
Signavio + BIMP
59
BIMP – bimp.cs.ut.ee
BIMP Demo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TjXl6yASCSc
61
Pitfalls of simulation
Stochasticity
Data quality pitfalls
Simplifying assumptions
62
Stochasticity
Simulation assumptions
Contents
1. Value-Added Analysis
2. Queuing analysis
3. Simulation
4. Recap
SEITE 65
Recap
SLIDE 66