Unit - 2
Unit - 2
Forecasting
Expectations, predictions, projections.
Forecasting is an attempt to quantify demand
in a future time period (quantification -
revenue).
It is an indispensible part of planning.
Propose of fore casting:
Short term forecasting – competitive situation based on
day to day, month or year
Medium term forecasting – rote decisions for 5years
Long term forecasting – fleet planning and financial
commitments for 5-10yrs
Cont..
i. Analysis
ii. Planning
iii. Control
Aircraft evaluation:
◦ Design characteristics
◦ Physical performance (technical parameters)
◦ Maintenance needs
◦ Acquisition cost
◦ Operating economics
Airline Rote analysis
Provides rote planning w.r.t other airlines
Maximize airline routes and network
Improve traffic system
Enhancing airline economics and
operational cost
Factors affecting routes
Operational cost (maintenance cost)
Management system (airline management)
Financial (or) Economic (owner or share
holders decision)
Regulatory Authority (political or
geographical locations)
Factors governing route analysis
Route forecasting and economics
Route profitability analysis
Rote optimization
Rote licensing
Principles of Airline Economics
Airline production (seats-km)
Load factor (filled seats / flight capacity)
(passenger-km to seats-km)
Operating cost (direct and indirect)
Flight operation
Fuel cost
Aircraft Maintenance and overhaul
Aircraft financing
Payload range
Block speed
Fleet Planning
Selecting the right aircraft or market
Do exiting aircrafts needs to be replaced?
What plan does the airline have to
expand service?
How much fuel do they burn per mile?
How much are maintenance expenses?
How much people are in need of their
service?
Fleet planning (or) Aircraft Selection
process
Information needed
Current resources
Corporate objectives
Projected industry environments
Marketing strategy
Fleet planning model
System constraints
Internal – airport facility, runway, gate and
terminal capacities
External – maintenance, crew training
Budgeting
To minimize airline cost where money
spends more and maximize the airlines
revenge.
Propose of budgeting
Forecasting airline’s economy
Actual financial conditions
How to do budgeting
Budget for infrastructure
Airline corporate budget
Revenue budget
Expenditure budget
Cost planning
Process of identifying the constriction cost
associated with an investment
Cost management cycle
Planning and
preliminary
budgeting
Post
construction Pre-design and
programming
Design and
construction
Benefits of cost planning
Greater satisfaction with end results
Better vale for money
Improved building quality and
performance
Budget and vale accountability
Problems identified and solved earlier
Early identification of high cost elements
Passenger Fare and Tarrifs
Structure of passenger fares
Fares are negotiated each year by tariff
co-ordination conference of IATA.
Types of international tarrifs
First class fares
Business class fares
Economic class fares
Preferential fares
Promotional fares
Factors affecting cost of passenger
fares
Purchase rate
Class
Destination
Flight date and time
Fuel cost
Competition fares
Special fares
Hub system