Security Analysis and Portfolio Management
Security Analysis and Portfolio Management
Portfolio Management
2
Capital Asset Pricing Model
Assumptions:
Investors can choose between portfolios
on the basis of expected return and
variance
All investors are in agreement as to
investment horizon of one time period
and the distribution of security returns
No friction in the capital market –
financially or informationally
3
Capital Asset Pricing Model
Answer to the question as to how risky
assets are priced in the market place
with respect to their risks if investors
make their investment choices based on
portfolio theory
Beta – the slope of characteristic line -
is the standard measure of risk
Prediction is rather simple: Market
4 Portfolio is efficient
Attributes of Market Portfolio
Portfolio of all risky assets
Not without risk, but that is only
systematic risk – unsystematic risk is
eliminated
Risk of an individual asset is measured by
its contribution to riskiness of market
portfolio
Variance of returns of an asset is the
aggregate of variation explained by the
5 market and the residual error– the latter is
not priced
Risk of an individual asset
2 (rj ) j 2 (rM ) 2 ( j )
2
j 1
M
Cov(rM , rM )
M x j j 1
j 1 (rM )
2
6
Position of assets with same βs
7
Position of asset with same ρ
E (rM ) rF
E (rJ ) rF J , M (rJ )
(rM )
8
Market forces to bring about
equilibrium
9
Theoretical validity
CAPM is valid
With no risk-free asset
sold
With lending at risk-free rate, but
10
Validity contd. …..
CAPM is invalid
If there is disagreement among
investors
If short-selling is disallowed
optimally
11
Empirical Testing of CAPM
Early tests produced excellent results but
were flawed; portfolios were diversified
and likely to be on MVF – that would
produce a linear SML even if the market
portfolio is not on MVF
Need to test MP being on MVF to prove
CAPM validity – MP of all risky assets is
undeterminable
12
Empirical Test contd. …..
A correlated market proxy may be used;
however, the correlation is usually
unknown
Individual asset betas have been found
to be unstable – return interval,
portfolio size, transaction volume and
firm size affects beta – and regress
towards mean
13
CAPM has turned out to be untestable
Summary
Only market forces determine security
risk and is measured by beta – other
risks are diversifiable and therefore, not
priced
Initial supporting empirical findings and
convenience of use resulted in
dominance of the model
Recent empirical findings cast serious
14 doubts on beta being the measure of risk