RISK MANAGEMENT

TM4215 Manajemen & Keekonomian Proyek

Chaterine | Budiman | Rivaldi | Kevin | Anthony | Theresia
OUTLINE

General Data
Scope of Work
Input

Risk
Summary Management
Processes
SCOPE OF WORK
SCOPE OF WORK GENERAL DATA INPUTN RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESSES SUMMARY

Risk Management Plan Risk Identification Qualitative Risk Analysis

Risk Response
Plan Risk Response Quantitative Risk Analysis
Implementation
DATA INPUT
SCOPE OF WORK GENERAL DATA INPUT RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESSES CONCEPTUAL MAP

Project schedule
(Management Risk)
WBS team

Procurement
documentation data
Procurement
(Commercial Risk) Management team

Identified risk during

Piping &
installation process
(Technical Risk) Excavation Team

Project cost Cost Estimation

estimation & forecast Team
RISK MANAGEMENT
PROCESS
Plan Risk Management
SCOPE OF WORK GENERAL DATA INPUT RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESSES CONCEPTUAL MAP

Plan Risk Management The process of defining how to conduct

risk management activities for a project.

INPUT
Project charter: the high-level project description and boundaries, requirements, and risks.
Project management plan: all approved subsidiary management plans.
Project documents: details of the project’s stakeholders and overview of their roles & attitude toward risk on
this project
Enterprise environmental factors: overall risk thresholds set by key stakeholders.
Organizational process assets: organizational risk policy; risk categories; risk concepts and terms; statement
format; templates; etc.
SCOPE OF WORK GENERAL DATA INPUT RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESSES CONCEPTUAL MAP

METHOD

Expert judgement: Expertise with specialized knowledge in organization’s approach to managing risk and
tailoring risk management.
Data analysis: a stakeholder analysis to determine the risk appetite of project stakeholders.
Meetings: define plans for conducting risk management activities and documented in the risk management
plan.

OUTPUT
Risk management plan
Includes risk strategy, methodology, roles and responsibilities, funding, timing, risk categories,
stakeholder risk appetite, definitions of risk probability and impacts, probability & impact matrix, reporting
formats, and tracking.
Risk Identification
SCOPE OF WORK GENERAL DATA INPUT RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESSES CONCEPTUAL MAP

The process of identifying individual project

Risk Identification risks as well as sources of overall project risk
and documenting their characteristics.

INPUT
Project management plan:
Components include requirements, schedule, cost, quality, resource, risk of management plan
and scope, schedule, cost of baseline.
Project documents
Components include assumption log, cost estimates, duration estimates, issue log, lessons
learned register, requirements documentation, resource requirements and stakeholder register.
Agreements
For external procurement of resources. It contain milestone dates, contract type, acceptance
criteria and awards & penalties.
SCOPE OF WORK GENERAL DATA INPUT RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESSES CONCEPTUAL MAP

Procurement documentation
For external procurement of resources. The initial procurement documentation should be
reviewed as procuring goods and services from outside the organization that may increase or decrease
overall risk projects or adds individual project risks.
Enterprise environmental factors
Include published material, academic studies, benchmarking results and industry studies of similar
projects.
Organizational process assets
Include project files, organizational and project process controls, risk statement formats and
checklists from previous similar projects.

METHODS
Expert judgement
Expertise with specialized knowledge in similar projects or business areas.
Data gathering
Techniques that can be used are brainstorming, checklists, and interviews.
Data analysis
Techniques that can be used are root cause, assumption and constraint, SWOT and document analysis.
SCOPE OF WORK GENERAL DATA INPUT RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESSES CONCEPTUAL MAP

Interpersonal and team skills

Includes but are not limited to facilitation.
Prompt lists
A predetermined list of risk categories that might give rise to individual project risks and that could also act
as sources of overall project risk.
Meetings

OUTPUT
Risk register
Include list of identified risks, potential risk owners, list of potential risk responses.
Risk report
Include sources of overall project risk and summary information on identified individual project
risks.
Project documents updates
Include assumption log, issue log and lessons learned register.
.
Perform Qualitative Risk
Analysis
SCOPE OF WORK GENERAL DATA INPUT RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESSES CONCEPTUAL MAP

Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis

INPUT
1. Project management plan
2. Project documents
3. Enterprise environmental factors
4. Organizational process assets

TOOLS & TECHNIQUES

1. Expert judgment: Topics  Previous similar projects and qualitative risk analysis
2. Data gathering: Structured or semi-structured interviews can be used to asses the probability and impacts of
individual project risks, as well as other factors
3. Interpersonal and team skills: Facilitation improves the effectiveness of the qualitative analysis of individual
project risks
SCOPE OF WORK GENERAL DATA INPUT RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESSES CONCEPTUAL MAP

1. Data representation: Techniques  Probability and impact matrix , Hierarchical charts

2. Data analysis: Risk data quality assessment, Risk probability and impact assessment, Assessment of other risk
parameters
3. Risk Categorization: Can be categorized by sources of risk, common root causes. Grouping risks into
categories can lead to the development of more effective risk responses
4. Meetings: review of previously identified risks, assessment of probability and impacts, categorization and
prioritization

OUTPUT
1. Project documents updates: Assumption log, Issue log, Risk register, Risk report
Perform Quantitative Risk
Analysis
SCOPE OF WORK GENERAL DATA INPUT RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESSES CONCEPTUAL MAP

Perform Quantitative The process of prioritizing individual project

Risk Analysis risks for further analysis or action by assessing
their probability of occurrence and impact as
well as other characteristics

INPUT
1. Project Management Plan: Components  Risk management plan, scope baseline, schedule baseline, cost
baseline
2. Project Documents: Consideration  Assumption log, Basis of estimates, Cost estimates, Cost forecasts, etc
3. Enterprise environmental factors  Factors: Industry studies of similar projects and Published material
including commercial risk databases or checklists
4. Organizational process assets  Information from similar completed projects
SCOPE OF WORK GENERAL DATA INPUT RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESSES CONCEPTUAL MAP

TOOLS & TECHNIQUES

1. Expert Judgement: Topics  Translating information on individual project risks and other sources of
uncertainty into numeric inputs, Selecting the most appropriate representation of uncertainty, Modelling
techniques that are appropriate in the context of the project, etc
2. Data Gathering  Interviews may be used to generate inputs for the quantitative risk analysis
3. Interpersonal and team skills  A skilled facilitator is useful for gathering input data during a dedicated risk
workshop involving project team members and other stakeholders
4. Representation of uncertainty  Quantitative risk analysis requires inputs to a quantitative risk analysis
model that reflect individual project risks and other sources of uncertainty
5. Data analysis  Techniques: Simulation, Sensitivity analysis, Decision tree analysis, Influence diagrams

OUTPUT
1. Project documents updates: Assumption log, Issue log, Risk register, Risk report
Plan Risk Response
SCOPE OF WORK GENERAL DATA INPUT RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESSES CONCEPTUAL MAP

Plan Risk Responses

INPUT
1. Project management plan: Components  Resource management plan, Risk management plan, Cost
baseline
2. Project documents: Consideration  Lessons learned register, project schedule, project team assignments,
Resource calendars, Risk register, risk report, stakeholder register
3. Enterprise environmental factors: The enterprise environmental factors that can influence the Plan Risk
Responses process include but are not limited to the risk appetite and thresholds of key stakeholders.
4. Organizational process assets : Assets  Templates for the risk management plan, risk register and risk
report; historical databases ; lessons learned repositories
SCOPE OF WORK GENERAL DATA INPUT RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESSES CONCEPTUAL MAP

TOOLS & TECHNIQUES

1. Expert judgement: Topics  Threat response strategies ; opportunity response strategies ; Contingent
response strategies ; Overall project risk response strategies
2. Data gathering  Development of responses to individual project risks and overall project risk may be
undertaken during structured or semi-structured interviews
3. Interpersonal and team skills  Interpersonal and team skills that can be used for this process includes but
are not limited to facilitation
4. Contingent response strategies  Some responses are designed for use only if certain events occur. For
some risks, it is appropriate for the project team to make a response plan that will only be executed under
certain predefined conditions
5. Data analysis  Techniques  Alternatives analysis, Cost-benefits analysis
6. Decision making  Decision-making techniques that can be used to select a risk response strategy include
but are not limited to multicriteria decision analysis.
SCOPE OF WORK GENERAL DATA INPUT RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESSES CONCEPTUAL MAP

TOOLS & TECHNIQUES

7. Strategies for opportunity & threat:
a. Escalate  Escalation is appropriate when the project team or the project sponsor agrees that a
threat/an opportunity is outside the scope of the project or that the proposed response would exceed
the project manager’s authority. Escalated opportunity/risks are managed at the program level, portfolio
level, or other relevant part of the organization, and not on the project level. Opportunities/threats are
usually escalated to the level that matches the objectives that would be affected if the
opportunity/threat occurred. Applicable strategy for both threat & opportunity.
b. Exploit  The exploit strategy may be selected for high-priority opportunities where the organization
wants to ensure that the opportunity is realized. This strategy seeks to capture the benefit associated
with a particular opportunity by ensuring that it definitely happens, increasing the probability of
occurrence to 100%. Examples of exploiting responses may include assigning an organization’s most
talented resources to the project to reduce the time to completion, or using new technologies or
technology upgrades to reduce cost and duration. Applicable strategy for opportunity.
SCOPE OF WORK GENERAL DATA INPUT RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESSES CONCEPTUAL MAP

TOOLS & TECHNIQUES

c. Share  Sharing involves transferring ownership of an opportunity to a third party so that it shares
some of the benefit if the opportunity occurs. Risk sharing often involves payment of a risk premium to
the party taking on the opportunity. Examples of sharing actions include forming risk-sharing
partnerships, teams, special-purpose companies, or joint ventures. Applicable strategy for opportunity.
d. Enhance  The enhance strategy is used to increase the probability and/or impact of an opportunity.
The probability of occurrence of an opportunity may be increased by focusing attention on its causes.
Where it is not possible to increase probability, an enhancement response might increase the impact by
targeting factors that drive the size of the potential benefit. Examples of enhancing opportunities
include adding more resources to an activity to finish early. Applicable strategy for opportunity.
e. Avoid  Risk avoidance is when the project team acts to eliminate the threat or protect the project
from its impact. It may be appropriate for high-priority threats with a high probability of occurrence and
a large negative impact. Avoidance may involve changing some aspect of the project management plan
or changing the objective that is in jeopardy in order to eliminate the threat entirely, reducing its
probability of occurrence to zero. Examples of avoidance actions may include removing the cause of a
threat, extending the schedule, changing the project strategy, or reducing scope. Applicable strategy for
threat.
SCOPE OF WORK GENERAL DATA INPUT RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESSES CONCEPTUAL MAP

TOOLS & TECHNIQUES

c. Transfer  Transfer involves shifting ownership of a threat to a third party to manage the risk and to
bear the impact if the threat occurs. Transfer can be achieved by a range of actions, which include but
are not limited to the use of insurance, performance bonds, warranties, guarantees, etc. Agreements
may be used to transfer ownership and liability for specified risks to another party. Applicable strategy
for threat.
d. Mitigate  In risk mitigation, action is taken to reduce the probability of occurrence and/or impact of a
threat. Adopting less complex processes, conducting more tests, or choosing a more stable seller are
examples of mitigation actions. Mitigation may involve prototype development to reduce the risk of
scaling up from a bench-scale model of a process or product. A mitigation response might reduce the
impact by targeting factors that drive the severity. Applicable strategy for threat.
e. Accept  This strategy may be appropriate for low-priority opportunities/threats, and it may also be
adopted where it is not possible or cost-effective to address an opportunity/a threat in any other way.
The most common active acceptance strategy is to establish a contingency reserve, including amounts of
time, money, or resources to take advantage of opportunity and handle the threat if it occurs. Passive
acceptance involves no proactive action apart from periodic review of the threat to ensure that it does
not change significantly. Applicable strategy for both threat & opportunity.
SCOPE OF WORK GENERAL DATA INPUT RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESSES CONCEPTUAL MAP

OUTPUT
1. Change requests  Planned risk responses may result in a change request to the cost and schedule baselines
or other components of the project management plan
2. Project Management plan updates  Components: Schedule management plan ; Cost management plan ;
Quality management plan; Resource management plan, etc
3. Project documents updates  Updates: Assumptions log, Cost forecasts, lessons learned register, Project
schedule, etc
Risk Response
Implementation
SCOPE OF WORK GENERAL DATA INPUT RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESSES CONCEPTUAL MAP

Risk Responses “Implementing agreed-upon risk response

Implementation plans”

INPUT
1. Risk management plan
2. Documents: lessons learned register, risk register, risk report
3. Organizational process assets
SCOPE OF WORK GENERAL DATA INPUT RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESSES CONCEPTUAL MAP

METHODS TO ACCOMPLISH
1. Expert Judgement : Expertise individuals/groups with specialized knowledge
- Validate or modify risk responses*
- Decide how to implement them in the most efficient & effective way

2. Interpersonal & Team Skills

- Risk response actions may be owned by people outside the project team or who have other competing
demands
- PM or PIC need to encourage nominated risk owners to take necessary action

3. Project Management Information System (PMIS)

- Include: schedule, resource, cost-software
- To ensure risk response plans and associated activities are integrated into the whole project
SCOPE OF WORK GENERAL DATA INPUT RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESSES CONCEPTUAL MAP

OUTPUT
1. Change requests
2. Project documents updates: issue log, lessons learned register, project team assignments, risk register, risk
report
WBS
 RBS Level 0 RBS Level 1 RBS Level 2
1.1 Scope definition

WBS
1.2 Requirements definition
1.3 Estimates, assumptions, and constraints
1. Technical Risk 1.4 Technical processes
1.5 Technology
1.6 Technical interfaces
Etc.
2.1 Project management
2.2 Program/portofolio management
2.3 Operations management
All Sources of Project Risk 2. Management Risk 2.4 Organization
2.5 Resourcing
2.6 Communication
Etc.
4.1 Legislation
4.2 Exchange rates
4.3 Site/facilities
3. Commercial Risk 4.4 Environmental/weather
4.5 Competition
4.6 Regulatory
Etc.
CONCEPTUAL MAP
SCOPE OF WORK GENERAL DATA INPUT RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESSES CONCEPTUAL MAP
TERIMAKASIH !