Introduction to Systems

Thinking Principles and

Analytical Tools
What is a Systems
Perspective?
By fixating on the parts of a system, we
miss understanding the whole
Lacking a Systems Perspective… the solution to one problem can
easily lead to a new and bigger problem later on or somewhere
else in the system

“unintended consequences”
Systems
Thinking
• System mindsets are needed for dealing
with complex problem solving
• 4 fundamental concepts:
• INTERCONNECTEDNESS
• SYNTHESIS
• FEEDBACK LOOPS
• CAUSALITY
Analysis
Is about dissection of Synthesis
complexity into manageable
components. Analysis fits into
the mechanical and reductionist sees the
worldview, where the world is interconnectedness
broken down into parts

Synthesis
Is about understanding the
whole and the parts at the same
time, along with the relationships
and the connections that make
up the dynamics of the whole.
 9
• Systems thinking is a vantage point
from
which you see a whole, a web of
relationships, rather than focusing
only on the detail of any particular
piece.
Events are seen in the larger context
What is of a
Systems pattern that is unfolding over time. ‐
isee systems, inc.
Thinking?
• Systems thinking is a perspective of
seeing and understanding systems as
wholes rather than as collections of
parts. A whole is a web of
interconnections that creates
emerging patterns. – Peter Senge
 Systems Thinking helps us to . .
.. . . move the focus away from events and patterns of
behavior (which are symptoms of problems) and
toward systemic structure and the underlying mental
models
Events L
What is seen
e
What’s happening?
a
r
Patterns of Behavior n
What is What’s been happening? L
generally What are the trends?
i e
unseen What changes have
n
occurred?
v
g
Structures e
What has influenced the patterns? r
(rules, lesson plans, curriculum)
What are the relationships among the
parts? a
g
Mental Models e
What values, beliefs, and assumptions do you have about teaching?

Source: Senge, Peter, The Fifth Discipline, 1996.

 Systems Thinking helps us to . .
.. . . To find the most important places for intervention
to change the long‐term behaviour of a system.

Events L
Are there transportation
alternatives that can
What is seen
e
What’s happening?
a
nr
Patterns of Behavior i

compete with car

What is L
generally What’s
What been
arehappening?
the trends? n
unseen What changes have g e
occurred?
v
Structures

ownership in terms of
e
What has influenced the patterns? r

O
(rules, lesson plans, curriculum)
What are the relationships among the
parts? a

perceived QoL?
g
Mental Models e
What values, beliefs, and assumptions do you have about teaching?

Car
Ownership

How is ‘quality of life”

perceived? Materialism
or wellness?
Source: Senge, Peter, The Fifth Discipline, 1996.
A systems approach is
to . . .
1. Identify a system - After all, not all things are
systems. Some systems are simple and predictable,
while others are complex and dynamic. Most human
social systems are the latter.
2. Explain the behavior or properties of the whole
system - This focus on the whole is the process of
synthesis. Analysis looks into things while synthesis
looks out of things.
3. Explain the behavior or properties of the question to
be explained in terms of the role(s) or function(s) of
the whole.
The Tools
of
Systems
Thinking
 Key
Messages
• Policymaking at the national and local level is a difficult, complex challenge.
• It is necessary to understand and appreciate the systemic factors and relationships
that ultimately impact the processes used by decision‐makers.
• Systems thinking requires a local, multi‐perspective, participatory and iterative
approach to be effective.
• A systemic approach provides a suitable environment for good policy / decision
making.
• Having good visual, dynamic and responsive tools is also necessary to
strengthen effective policy decisions.
• Systems thinking can therefore strengthen policy making for long‐term
sustainable development.
Systems Thinking Recap
QUI
Z
 To understand the feedback loops we need
to gain perspective of causality: how one
thing results in another thing in a dynamic
and constantly evolving system.

CAUSALIT
Y The cause and effect concept in system
thinking is about being able to understand
the way things influence each other in a
system (on agency, feedback loops,
connections, and relationships)
 SDG 6 Interlinkages with other
SDGs

Target 6.36.1 –Improve

–Achieve universalwater quality and equitable
by reducing access
pollution,
to safeeliminating
and affordable
dumping
Target
drinking
and 6.a
minimizing
6.2 –Expand
water
–Achieve
for
release international
all.access
of hazardous cooperation
to adequate chemicals and
andcapacity‐building
and equitable materials,
sanitation
halving support
and the
hygieneto
Target
and
developing6.4 – Substantially
countries inincrease
water‐ water‐use efficiency
andparticipation across
sanitation‐related all sectors
activities and
Target 6.6 –Protect
6.b
proportion
Third most –inter‐linked
ofSupport
untreatedand
and restore water‐related
strengthen
wastewater
target; the
and ecosystems,
substantially of including
local recycling and
communities
increasing
ensure
Target
mountains,
end open6.5
sustainable
–Implement
defecation, withdrawals
integrated
(special and water
supply resources
of freshwater
management
to addressandall
at water
levels,
programmes,
in
and improving
Direct safe
causalreuse including
water and
globally.
inter‐linkages withattention
water
sanitation othertotargets
42 harvesting,
management. the needs
from of 16women
desalination, water girls).
efficiency,
scarcity
including
forests,
Direct and substantially
through
wetlands, transboundary
rivers,with reduce
aquifers, the number
cooperation
and of appropriate.
as people 13suffering from
SDGS; causal
wastewater
Fourth
Second most
most
Indirectly inter‐linkages
treatment,
inter‐linked
inter‐linked
linked with
recycling
target; 35
anotherandother
38 reuse targets from
technologies.
targets;
water
Direct
lakes
SDGS;
Fifth scarcity
causal
The most
Indirectly
most inter‐linkages
inter‐linked
linked target;
inter‐linked with with 37 other
target;
another 26 targets from 14
targets;
Direct
Direct
Directly causal
causal inter‐linkages
inter‐linkages
drive/influenced bywith
with
35 48
55 other
other other
targets targets
and from
targets from
is a key14
16 driver / influencer
Direct
SDGS;
Directly
Direct causal
Indirectly inter‐linkages
linked
drive/influenced
causal inter‐linkages with with
another
bywith
25 41 other
28
47 other
other
53 targets;
targets targets from
and from
targets is a key14 driver / influencer of
11
16
SDGS;
SDGS;
of 7 otherIndirectly
targets; linked with another 28
31 targets;
SDGS;
Directly
SDGS;
10 otherIndirectly
Indirectly
targets; linked with
driven/influenced
linked with another
byanother
17 other 31targets
36
23 targets;
targets; and is a key
Directly
Directly
Most driven/influenced
driven/influenced
strongly influenced byby 27
44 other
bySDG other
1 (Povertytargets
targets and
and isis aa key
Eradication); key driver
driver
SDG // influencer
6 (Waterinfluencer
& of
of
Directly
driver
Most / driven/influenced
influencer
strongly of
influenced 20 other
byby 34 targets;
other
40 other
bySDG targets
1&(Poverty);
targetsSDG and is a
and6is(Waterkey & (Cities
Sanitation);
Directly
21
11 other
other
Sanitation);driven/influenced
targets;
targets;
SDG 9 (Infrastructure 14 Industrialization); aSDG
key11driver and SDG of
/ influencer 9
driver
Most
of
39 7other/
other
(Resilient influencer
strongly targets;
Infrastructure,
targets; of
influenced 7 other
by targets;
SDG
Sustainable 6, 16, 17
Industrialization & Innovation); SDG 11
Most
Human
Most strongly
strongly influenced
Settlements);
influenced SDG by
by15SDG
SDG 5,
6, 16,
(Sustainable
8, 9,and11, 17
Use12,of16,
Terrestrial
and 17 Ecosystems);
Most
Has
(Cities strongly
the most
and influenced
direct
Human influenceby
Settlements); SDG
on SDG6,
6, 7, 6,
and7,and
SDG9,
12, 12,
11, 1714,15,
13, and16,15of
and
Most
Has
Has
SDGthe strongly
16 most
(Peaceful,influenced
direct influence
Inclusive, by SDG
and 16,
on Just
SDG 31, 17
(Human
6,
Societies 11,(Means
12,
Health
with 13, Implementation);
and
and 14.
AccountableWellbeing); SDG 6
Institutions);
17
17
Has Has
Has
the the
the
most most
most
direct direct
direct influence
influence
influence on on
on
SDG SDG
SDG3 11,
(Human
3, 6,Use and 15
Health
8, 9,of12, and
13, andandWellbeing)
14 SDG 15 and SDG
and SDG&17
(Water Sanitation);
(Means ofSDG Implementation);
14 (Sustainable Oceans);
11
Has (Cities
(Sustainable
the most andUse Human
direct Settlements)
of Terrestrial
influence Ecosystems)
on SDG 3 (Human Health and Wellbeing)
Developing Causal Loop Diagram focused on SDG 6
targets
 Case study: Cat Ba Biosphere Reserve of Vietnam

• Located in
Northern Vietnam
• High priority area for
conservation of
biodiversity
• Ha Long Bay is the
main urban tourist
hub
• Main water supply
– groundwater
Source: Vietnam Travel
• Economic output
Guide comes from tourism
Donella Meadows developed a
12 leverage point framework for
system intervention
Physical
level
12. Численные показатели:
переменные, константы, а
также субсидии, налоги и
стандарты
11. Буфер: размер запаса,
оказывающий
стабилизирующее влияние, в
зависимости от величины
потоков
10. Структуры запасов и
потоков: физические системы
и их точки пересечения
Informational
level
9. Запаздывания: величина
задерж ки относительно
скоростей измене ния системы
8. Балансирующие циклы
обратно й связи: мощность
циклов относите льно
воздействий, которые они пыт
аются скомпенсировать
7. Усиливающие циклы
обратной связи: влияние
прироста на движу щие циклы
6. Информационные потоки: стрy
ктура, определяющая, кто имеет
до ступ к информации, а кто —
нет
Social
level
5. Правила: стимулы,
наказания, принуждение
4. Самоорганизация:
добавление, изменение и
эволюционные
преобразования системных
структур
3. Цели: назначение и
функция систем
Consciousness
level
2. Система взглядов и понятий:
мировоззрение, в рамках
которого построена система —
ее цели, структура, правила,
запаздывания и другие
параметры
1. Расширение
границ
мировоззрения
ZK
2

Quantitative
Modelling

Purpose Proces Options Optimal Alternate

s
Slide 41

ZK2 I think slides 41, 42, 43 would better match the session 3 morning presentation as tis quantitative modelling
was part of ESCAP methodology and project... I think better to show it as part of those presentation along
with the correlation analyses
Zulfiya Kalimollategi, 21/02/2019
 Quantitative Modelling – SEM
results

Model 1: Perfect replication of KUMU Model 4: Governance Transparency & Model 9: FA Original Variables
Partnerships
Qualitativ
e
Modelling
In the absence of ideal data
– correlational analysis
ZK
3
AN
1
Slide 44

ZK3 Slides from this one till the end are more practical and cover hows of preparing the system diagram. I think
it would perfectly fit the afternoon of Session 3 that is hands-on session
Zulfiya Kalimollategi, 21/02/2019

AN1 yes, this is one presentation for the whole day

Aneta Nikolova, 21/02/2019
How to Develop A Systems Thinking
Model
 STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE TO SYSTEMS-THINKING MODELING

Kumu Mapping
Kumu enables you to build interactive maps with narratives, links, video

and other background for each element, connection, and loop in the

map.
Interlinkages
Scale