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Economics of World Agriculture: Population in Economic Development

The document discusses the relationship between population growth, food production, and economic development. It states that in peasant economies, population growth depends on food production, but as economies develop, food production tends to rise faster than population. This allows economic development to occur as food per capita rises and populations grow larger but not poorer. The demographic transition model outlines the four stages of population growth that correspond to economic development, from an initial state of high birth/death rates and low population to one of low birth/death rates and stable population. The duration of the agricultural development stage is influential in determining the final population size and wealth of the economy.

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22 views

Economics of World Agriculture: Population in Economic Development

The document discusses the relationship between population growth, food production, and economic development. It states that in peasant economies, population growth depends on food production, but as economies develop, food production tends to rise faster than population. This allows economic development to occur as food per capita rises and populations grow larger but not poorer. The demographic transition model outlines the four stages of population growth that correspond to economic development, from an initial state of high birth/death rates and low population to one of low birth/death rates and stable population. The duration of the agricultural development stage is influential in determining the final population size and wealth of the economy.

Uploaded by

Slice Le
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Economics of World Agriculture

Lecture 5

Population in Economic Development

1
Previously . . .

 Low incomes are logical outcome of


system starved of technology

 Cycle of poverty remains until the


technology and conditions for adoption
are present

2 of 20
Today . . .

 Discuss the implications of population


growth on economic development

 Food availability is constraining factor


on population growth

 Changes in population triggered by


changes in economy (agriculture)

3 of 20
Population, Food
Production and Economic
 In peasant economies:
Growth
 Need pop to grow food
 Food determines pop

 Ceteris paribus:
Economic
Growth
 More pop  econ. growth
 More food  econ growth

 Rising pop beneficial to


development
 Certain population density
necessary for efficient
Food
infrastructure & markets
Production Population

 Rising population can


also be detrimental
 Pressure on prices
 Social unrest, starvation
4 of 20
Economic Development
 History tells us that food production tends
to rise faster than population

 Economic development occurs


 Food/capita rises
 Tend not to observe larger but equally poor
populations

 Is Economic Development obvious?


 Explicable certainly (with hindsight)
 But it wasn’t always so . . .
5 of 20
Dismal Scientists

 Rev. Thomas Malthus


 First Professor of economics (political economy)
 His economics strongly influenced by his religion

 1799 Essay on Population


 ‘Principle of population’
 Population determined by food availability
 Food availability grows arithmetically (3,5,7)
 Population grows exponentially (3,9,27)
 His ‘Principle’ based on ‘vice and misery’ 6 of 20
The Malthusian Model: Dismal indeed
Food abundance encourages vice &
exponential population growth

Food Food supply


“Vice” “Misery”

Food demand
(population)
Subsistence is the long run equilibrium

Population growth is unsustainable causing


misery and population crash

Time
7 of 20
Is the World Malthusian?

 Fortunately not, although . . .


 Club of Rome
 Authoritarian birth control

 Far from food abundance (income)


stimulating population growth
 Population growth rate falls during
development
 Markets responsible, as is
 Desire for improvement (materialism?)
8 of 20
Demographic Transition Model

 Modern description of population

 Identifies key phases of pop growth

 Importantly, the triggers for DTM :


 Economic
 Occur in dominant sector (agriculture, at
least initially)

9 of 20
Demographic Transition Model
I II III IV

Population (millions)
Growth rate (%)

Birth Rate Total Population

Death Rate

Time 10 of 20
Stage I: Low Stationary Population
I High (variable) Death rate
poor diet
poor public health
vulnerability to disease
preventable diseases are main killers
low life expectancy (40)
high infant mortality

High (stable) birth rate


to compensate for DR

Low, fluctuating
population 11 of 20
Stage II: Early Expanding Population
II Falling Death rate
More food/better nutrition
Better health care

Birth rate remains High


Children economic asset
As earners (>12 yrs)
insurance in old age
Rudimentary education

Rapidly growing population


Majority of child bearing age
Youthful population (50%<15)
12 of 20
Stage III: Late Expanding Population
III Falling death rate
Trends from Stage II continue

Falling birth rate


Rationale for large families decline
Savings, welfare infrastructure
Children are economic liability
Compulsory education
Schooling of girls (vital)
Birth control
Emerging materialism

Population growth slows


13 of 20
Stage IV: High Stationary Population
IV Low death rate
Advanced health care
Long life expectancy (80yrs)

Low birth rate


High costs of child-rearing
Long & advanced education
Particularly among women
‘The Welfare State’
Birth control

Stable, ageing Population


14 of 20
Demography & Development
 The DTM is a model of population

 What are the implications of it for


development?

 What determines the transition and


duration of each phase?

 Let’s superimpose an indicator of


development on the DTM
15 of 20
Development & Demographic Transition Model
I II III IV
GDP per Capita

Population (millions)
Growth rate (%)

16 of 20
What can we Infer?
 Development is also a 4-stage model

 Stage I :Peasant-based Agriculture


 Low, volatile income (food)
 Devoid of technology
 Population low and variable

 Stage II : Agricultural Revolution


 Widespread adoption of technology
 Growing Marketable surplus
 Rising food (income) feeds growing population
 Structure of economy begins to diversify
17 of 20
What can we Infer?
 Stage I :Peasant-based Agriculture

 Stage II : Agricultural Revolution

 Stage III : Industrialisation


 Commercial farming
 Increasingly urban population
 Rapidly rising productivity and incomes in
commerce and industry
 Education (expensive) limits family size

 Stage IV : The Hi-Tech Economy


 Population is static
 Services and commerce dominate economy
 Knowledge & education are King 18 of 20
Some Implications
 The duration of ‘Stage II’ influential:
 final population size
 wealth of economy

 In Stage II population is rising rapidly


 Potential for population ‘time-bomb’
 Ageing dependents can burden economy

 In Stage III income growth most rapid

 Market forces curb population


 Authoritarian birth control unnecessary where
market forces prevail 19 of 20
Growth rate (%)
Development & Demographic Transition Model
I II III IV
GDP per Capita

Population (millions)
Growth rate (%)

GDP per capita Growth

20 of 20

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