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Reliability: Mcgraw-Hill/Irwin

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40 views

Reliability: Mcgraw-Hill/Irwin

mgt613 ppt

Uploaded by

Anaya Malik
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 27

4s-1 Reliability

CHAPTER
4s

Reliability

Operations Management, Eighth Edition, by William J. Stevenson


McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2005 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
4s-2 Reliability

Reliability

 Reliability: The ability of a product, part,


or system to perform its intended function
under a prescribed set of conditions
 Failure: Situation in which a product,
part, or system does not perform as
intended
 Normal operating conditions: The set
of conditions under which an item’s
reliability is specified
4s-3 Reliability

Improving Reliability

• Component design
• Production/assembly techniques
• Testing
• Redundancy/backup
• Preventive maintenance procedures
• User education
• System design
4s-4 Reliability

Quantifying Reliability
 Reliability is Probability
 If a component or item has a reliability
of 0.8, it means that it has a 80%
probability of functioning as intended,
the probability it will fail is 1-0.8 = 0.2
which is 20%
4s-5 Reliability

Reliability is a Probability

 Probability that the product or system will:


 Function when activated
 Function for a given length of time
 Independent events
 Events whose occurrence or
nonoccurrence do not influence each other.
 Redundancy
 The use of backup components to increase
reliability.
4s-6 Reliability

Rule 1
Lamp 1 Lamp 2

.90 .80 .90 x .80 = .72

Both the lamps should be lighted up in order to ensure visibility

If two or more events are independent and success is defined as


probability that all of the events ,occur then the probability of
success is equal to the product of probabilities

Reliability of the System = (Reliability of component 1) (Reliability of


Component 2)
4s-7 Reliability

Rule 2
If two events are independent and “success” is defined as
probability that at least one of the events will occur, then the
probability of either one plus 1.00 minus that probability
multiplied by the other probability
Lamp 2 is an example of redundancy here, as it being backup
Lamp increases the reliability of the system from 0.9 to 0.98

Lamp 2 (backup)
.80

Lamp 1

.90 .90 + (1-.90)*.80 = .98


4s-8 Reliability

Rule 3
 If three events are involved and success is defined
as the probability that at least one of them occurs,
the probability of success is equal to the
probability of the first one ( any of the events),
plus the product of 1.00 minus that probability and
the probability of the second event ( any of the
remaining events), plus the product of 1.00 minus
each of the two probabilities and the probability of
third event and so on. This rule can be extended to
cover more than three events.
4s-9 Reliability

Rule 3

.70
Lamp 3 (backup for Lamp 2)

.80
Lamp 2 (backup for Lamp1)

1 – P(all fail)
.90 1-[(1-.90)*(1-.80)*(1-.70)] = .994
Lamp 1
4s-10 Reliability

2. Time based Reliability “Failure Rate”


Figure 4S.1
Failure Rate

Infant Failures due


Few (random) failures
mortality to wear-out
Time, T
4s-11 Reliability

What can we observe in the Bath Tub Curve


 Phase I
 You can see that quite a few of the products fail shortly
put into service, not because they wear out but they are
defective to begin with.
 Phase II
 The rate of failure decreases rapidly once the truly
defective items are WEEDED OUT (Eliminating inferior
products/Services). During phase II, there are fewer
failures because the inferior/defective have already been
eliminated. This phase is free of worn out items and as
seen is the LONGEST PERIOD here.
4s-12 Reliability

What can we observe in the Bath Tub Curve


Phase III
 In the third phase, failure occurs because the products
have completed the normal life of their service life and
thus worn out. As we can see the graphs steeps up in this
phase indicating an increase in the failure rate.

 HOW CAN WE COLLECT INFORMATION ON THE


DISTRIBUTION, LENGTH OF EACH PHASE
REQUIRES COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS OF
DATA. WE ARE INTERESTED IN CALCULATING
MEAN TIME BETWEEN FAILURE FOR EACH
PHASE.
Exponential Distribution FOR INFANT
4s-13 Reliability

MORTALITY STAGE
Figure 4S.2

Reliability = e -T/MTBF

1- e -T/MTBF

T Time
4s-14 Reliability

Exponential Distribution
 Equipment failures as well as product failures may
occur in this pattern. In such case the exponential
distribution, such as depicted on the graph for you.
 Phase I indicates the probability that equipment or
product put into service at time 0 will fail before
specified T is ability that a product will last until
Time T and is represented by area under the curve
between O and T.
4s-15 Reliability

Exponential Distribution
 Phase II indicates that the curve to the right of Point T
increases in Time but reduces in reliability.
 We can calculate the reliability or probability values using
a table of exponential values.
 An exponential distribution is completely described using
the distribution mean, which reliability engineers call it
the MEAN TIME BETWEEN FAILURES.
 Using T to represent the length of service, we can
calculate P before failure as
 P ( No failure before T)= e-T/MBTF.
4s-16 Reliability

Normal Distribution
Figure 4S.3

Reliability

0 z
4s-17 Reliability

Normal Distribution
 Product failure due to wear out can be determined
by using normal distribution.
 From our knowledge of statistics we already know
that the statistic table for a standardized variable Z
represents the area under the normal curve from
essentially from the left end of the curve to a
specified point z, where z is a standardized value
computing use z = T-Mean wear out time
Std Deviation of Wear out Time
4s-18 Reliability

Normal Distribution
 The mean life of a certain steam turbine can be modeled
using a normal distribution with a mean life of six years,
and a standard deviation of one year. Determine each of
the following:
a. The probability that a stem turbine will wear out before
seven years of service.
b. To probability that a steam turbine will wear out after
seven years of service ( i.e. find its reliability)
c. The service life will provide a wear-out probability of
10 percent.
 Wear out life mean= 6 years.
 Wear out life standard deviation = 1 year
 Wear out life is normally distributed.
4s-19 Reliability

Normal Distribution
b. Subtract the probability ( reliability) determined
in part a from 100 percent
1.00 -0.8413
Reliability=
= 0.1587 0.1587

We can see that on the 0 z


Z scale, both a and b gives
1.00
4s-20 Reliability

Availability

 The fraction of time a piece of equipment


is expected to be available for operation
MTBF
Availability 
MTBF  MTR

MTBF = mean time between failures


MTR = mean time to repair
4s-21 Reliability

Concurrent Engineering Advantages


 Manufacturing Personnel are able to identify
production capabilities and capacities .
 Early opportunities for design or procurement of
critical tooling, some of which might have long lead
times.
4s-22 Reliability

Concurrent Engineering Advantages


 Early consideration of the Technical Feasibility of a
particular design or a portion of a design.
4s-23 Reliability
Concurrent Engineering
Disadvantages
 Long standing existing boundaries between design and
manufacturing can be difficult to overcome.
4s-24 Reliability

Computer-Aided Design

 Computer-Aided Design (CAD) is product


design using computer graphics.
 increases productivity of designers, 3 to 10
times
 creates a database for manufacturing
information on product specifications
 provides possibility of engineering and cost
analysis on proposed designs
4s-25 Reliability

Quality Function Deployment

QFD: An approach that integrates the “voice of the customer” into


the product and service development process.

 Quality Function Deployment


 Voice of the customer
 House of quality
4s-26 Reliability

Operations Strategy

1. Invest more in R &D (Research &


Development).
2. Shift some emphasis away from short term
performance to long term Performance.
3. Work towards continual and gradual
improvements instead o big bang
approach.
4. Work to shorten the product life cycle.
4s-27 Reliability

Operations Strategy

5. Increase emphasis on component


commonality.
6. Package products and services.
7. Use multiple platforms.
8. Consider tactics for mass
customization.
9. Look for continual improvement.
10. Shorten time to market.

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