University of Sharjah

Dept. of Civil and Env. Engg.

0401445-Hydraulic Eng. & Design

Chapter 4- Water Demand Forecasting

Dr. Tarek Merabtene

[email protected]
06-5050924 (ext:2924)
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 Chapter Outcomes

 Water is withdrawn from along the pipes in a pipe network

system

 For computational purposes all demands on the system are

assumed to occur at the junction nodes

 Pressure is a significant concern in a water distribution system

 The total water demand at each node/Junction is estimated

from residential, industrial and commercial water demands at
that node

 The fire flow is added to account for emergency water

demand
Water Demand Forecasting/Estimation
 In the planning of municipal water-supply projects, the
water demand at the end of the design life of the
project is usually the basis for design

 The estimation of the design flow rates for components of

the water-supply system typically requires forecast of the
population of the service area at the end of the design
life, which is then multiplied by the per capita water
demand to yield the design flow rate.

 Whereas the per capita water demand can usually be

assumed to be fairly constant, the estimation of the
future population typically involves a nonlinear
extrapolation of past population trends.
 Domestic Population Forecasting
 Design of water supply and sanitation scheme is based
on the projected population of a particular city,
estimated for the design period.

 Any underestimated value will make system

inadequate for the purpose intended; similarly
overestimated value will make it costly.

 The present and past population record for the city can
be obtained from the census population records.

 After collecting these population figures, the

population at the end of design period is predicted
using various methods.
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 Domestic Population Forecasting
 Methods of population forecasting:

 Arithmetic increase method

 Geometrical increase method
 Incremental increase method
 Graphical method
 Comparative graphical method
 Master plan method
 Logistic curve method
 Ratio method etc

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 Domestic Population Forecasting
Arithmetic increase method
 This method is suitable for large and old city with
considerable development.

 In this method the average increase in population per decade

is calculated from the past census reports.

 This increase is added to the present population to find out

the population of the next decade.

 Hence, dP/dt = C i.e. rate of change of population with respect

to time is constant.
 Therefore, Population after nth decade will be
Pn= P + n.C
Pn is the population after n decades and P is present population.

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 Domestic Population Forecasting
Geometric Increase Method
 This method gives higher values and hence should be
applied for a new industrial town at the beginning of
development for only few decades.

 The population at the end of nth decade ‘Pn’ can be

estimated as:

Pn = P (1+ IG/100) n

 Where, IG = geometric mean (%)

 P = Present population
 n = no. of decades.

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 Domestic Population Forecasting
Incremental Increase Method
 This method is modification of arithmetical increase method.

 It is suitable for an average size town under normal condition where the
growth rate is found to be in increasing order.

 The incremental increase is determined for each decade from the past
population and the average value is added to the present population
along with the average rate of increase.

 Hence, population after nth decade is

Pn = P+ n.X + {n (n+1)/2}.Y

 Where,
 Pn = Population after nth decade
 X = Average increase
 Y = Incremental increase
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 Domestic Population Forecasting
Graphical Method

 In this method, the

populations of last few
decades are correctly plotted
to a suitable scale on graph.
 The population curve is
smoothly extended for
getting future population.

This extension should be done carefully and it

requires proper experience and judgment.
The best way of applying this method is to extend
the curve by comparing with population curve of
some other similar cities having the similar growth
9 condition.
 Example: Population forecasting
 Predict the population for the year 2021, 2031, and 2041
from the following population data using
 Arithmetic increase method
 Geometrical increase method
 Incremental Increase method
 Graphical method

Year Population

1961 858545
1971 1015672
1981 1201553
1991 1691538
2001 2077820
2011 2585862
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 Example: Population forecasting
Arithmetic increase method
Year Population increment

1961 858545 -
1971 1015672 (1015672-858545)=157127
1981 1201553 185881
1991 1691538 489985
2001 2077820 386282
2011 2585862 508042

Avg. increment per decade, C, Pn= P + n.C

=345463
Population in year 2021 =P2021=2585862+345463 x 1=
2931325
Population in year 2031 =P2031=2585862+345463 x 2=
3276788
Population in year 2041 =P2041=2585862+345463 x 3=
11 3622251
 Example: Population forecasting
Geometric increase method
year Populatio incremen Geometric increase (rate of
n t growth)

1961 858545 -
1971 1015672 157127 (157127/858545)=0.18
1981 1201553 185881 (185881/1015672)=0.18
1991 1691538 489985 (489985/1201553)=0.40
2001 2077820 386282 (386285/1691538)=0.23
2011 2585862 508042 (508042/2077820)=0.24
Avg. Geometric mean per decade,
IG=(0.18x0.18x0.4x0.23x0.24)1/5
Avg. Geometric mean per decade, IG=0.235
Pn 1=
Population in year 2021 =P2021=2585862(1+0.235) = P (1+ IG/100)
3193540
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Population in year 2031 =P2031=2585862(1+0.235)2=
3944021
 Example: Population forecasting
Increment increase method
year Populatio Increme Increment (Y)
n nt (X)
1961 858545 - -
1971 1015672 157127 -
1981 1201553 185881 (185881-157127)=28754
1991 1691538 489985 304104
2001 2077820 386282 -103703
2011 2585862 508042 121760
Total 1727317 350915
Avg. 345463 87729

Population in year 2021 =P2021=2585862+(345463 x 1)+(1(1+1)/2)x

87729=3019054
Population in year 2031 =P2031=2585862+(345463 x 2)+(2(2+1)/2)x
87729=3539975
Pn = P+ n.X + {n (n+1)/2}.Y
Population
13 in year 2041 =P2041=2585862+(345463 x 3)+(3(3+1)/2)x
87729=4148625
 Example: Population forecasting
Graphical Method

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 Domestic Population Forecasting
Comparative Graphical Method

 In this method the census populations of cities already

developed under similar conditions are plotted.
 The curve of past population of the city under
consideration is plotted on the same graph.

 The curve is extended carefully by comparing with the

population curve of some similar cities having the
similar condition of growth.
 The advantage of this method is that the future
population can be predicted from the present
population even in the absent of some of the past
census report.

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Domestic Population Forecasting
Comparative Graphical Method
 Example: Let the population of a new city X be given for
decades 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000 were 32,000; 38,000;
43,000 and 50,000, respectively. The cities A, B, C and D
were developed in similar conditions as that of city X. It is
required to estimate the population of the city X in the years
2010 and 2020.
 The population of cities A, B, C and D of different decades
were given below:
 (i) City A was 50,000; 62,000; 72,000 and 87,000 in 1960,
1972, 1980 and 1990, respectively.
 (ii) City B was 50,000; 58,000; 69,000 and 76,000 in 1962,
1970, 1981 and 1988, respectively.
 (iii) City C was 50,000; 56,500; 64,000 and 70,000 in
1964, 1970, 1980 and 1988, respectively.
 (iv) City D was 50,000; 54,000; 58,000 and 62,000 in
1961, 1973, 1982 and 1989, respectively.
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 Domestic Population Forecasting
Comparative Graphical Method
 Population curves for the cities A, B, C, D and X were plotted. Then
an average mean curve is also plotted by dotted line as shown in the
figure. The population curve X is extended beyond 50,000 matching
with the dotted mean curve. From the curve the populations
obtained for city X are 58,000 and 68,000 in year 2010 and 2020.

17 Figure: Comparative graphical method

 Domestic Population Forecasting
Master Plan Method

 The big and metropolitan cities are planned and regulated by

local bodies according to master plan.

 The master plan is prepared for next 25 to 30 years for the

city.

 According to the master plan the city is divided into various

zones such as residence, commerce and industry.

 The population densities are fixed for various zones in the

master plan.

 From this population density total water demand and

wastewater generation for that zone can be worked out.
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 Domestic Population Forecasting
Ratio Method
 In this method, the local population and the country's
population for the last four to five decades is obtained
from the census records.
 The ratios of the local population to national population
are then worked out for these decades.
 A graph is then plotted between time and these ratios,
and extended up to the design period to extrapolate
the ratio corresponding to future design year.
 This ratio is then multiplied by the expected national
population at the end of the design period, so as to
obtain the required city's future population.
Drawbacks:
 Depends on accuracy of national population estimate.
 Does not consider the abnormal or special conditions
which can lead to population shifts from one city to
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another. 
 Domestic Population Forecasting
Logistic Curve Method

 This method is used when the growth rate of population

due to births, deaths and migrations takes place under
normal situation and it is not subjected to any
extraordinary changes like epidemic, war, earthquake or
any natural disaster etc.

 The population follows the growth curve characteristics

of living things within limited space and economic
opportunity.

 If the population of a city is plotted with respect to time,

the curve so obtained under normal condition will look
like S-shaped curve and is known as logistic curve.

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 Domestic Population Forecasting
Logistic Curve Method

Figure: Logistic curve for

population growth

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 Domestic Population Forecasting
Logistic Curve Method
 McLean further suggested that if only three pairs of
characteristic values P0, P1, P2 at times t0 = 0, t1 and t2
= 2t1 extending over the past record are chosen, the
saturation population Ps and constant m and n can be
estimated by the following equation, as follows

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 Domestic Population Forecasting
Logistic Curve Method
 Example: The population of a city in three consecutive
decades i.e. 1991, 2001 and 2011 is 80,000; 250,000 and
480,000, respectively.
 Determine (a) The saturation population, (b) The equation of
logistic curve, (c) The expected population in 2021.

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 Domestic Population Forecasting
Logistic Curve Method

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 Home Exercise
 1. Explain different methods of population forecasting.

 2. The population data for a town is given below. Find

out the population in the year 2025, 2035 and 2045 by
(a) arithmetical (b) geometric (c) incremental increase
methods.
 Year 1971: 1981: 1991: 2001: 2011
 Population 84,000: 115,000: 160,000: 205,000:
250,000

 3. In three consecutive decades the population of a

town is 40,000; 100,000 and 130,000.
 Determine: (a) Saturation population; (b). Expected
population in next decade.
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 Water Demand Forecasting:
To properly design a water supply system, the engineer must
evaluate the amount of water that is required, known as the
“water demand”.

“Water demand is the volume of water required by users to

satisfy their needs.” 

 Types/Categories of water demand/uses

Domestic water demand
Public water use
Commercial water use
Industrial water use
Fire demand
Irrigationwater demand
Losses and wastes
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 Typical Water Demands
 There are usually several categories of water demand, that can be broadly
grouped into following categories
 Domestic water demand also called Residential water use:
 Domestic water demand represent the typical water use in houses and
apartments including use for drinking, sanitary, washing, bathing, and other
purposes such as private gardening.
 Public water use:
 It includes facilities such as government buildings, governmental schools, city
halls, and hospitals, etc. It also include many other use for public services such
as sprinkling, street flushing, public parks and gardening, etc. Such services
may consume water at about 10 to 15 gallons per capita
 Commercial water use:
 It is associated with retail businesses, offices, hotels, and restaurants.

(1 US gallon = 3.785 liter).

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 Typical Water Demands
 Industrial water use: It is associated with manufacturing and processing
operations. Large industrial requirements are typically satisfied by
sources other than the public water supply.
 Fire demand: Besides the fluctuations in demand that occur under
normal operating conditions, water-distribution systems are usually
designed to accommodate the large (short-term) water demands
associated with fighting fires. Numerous methods have been
proposed for estimating fire flows (AWWA, 1992), the most popular
of which was proposed by the Insurance Services Office, Inc. (ISO,
1980).
 Irrigation water demand: It is associated with crop consumption and
irrigation processes. Irrigation water demand is typically supplied
from surface or ground water through a separate irrigation network
system.
 Losses and wastes: It is the amount of water lost from the water system
due to water leakage from the supply pipe network. In some
countries especially where water systems are old the losses can be
as high as 40%.
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 Typical Water Demands

 Water Supply and Sewerage, Sixth Edition . Terence J. McGhee. McGraw-Hill

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 Typical Water Demands

(265litr
e)
(1 US gallon = 3.785 liter).
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FACTORS AFFECTING WATER CONSUMPTION

 Climate conditions

 Size of the city

 Characteristics of the population

 Water quality

 Cost of water

 Water pressure

 Water conservation
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 Variations in Water Demand

 Seasonal
variation

 Daily variation 

 Hourly
variations

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 Water Demands: Terminologies
 Average Annual Demand (AAD) - The total volume of water delivered
to the system in a full year expressed in litres. When demand fluctuates
up and down over several years, an average is used.
 Average Daily Demand (ADD) - The total volume of water delivered to
the system over a year divided by 365 days. The average use in a single
day expressed in Litres per day.
 Maximum Month Demand (MMD) - The litres per day average during
the month with the highest water demand. The highest monthly usage
typically occurs during a summer month.
 Peak Weekly Demand (PWD) - The greatest 7-day average demand
that occurs in a year expressed in litres per day.
 Maximum Day Demand (MDD) - The largest volume of water
delivered to the system in a single day expressed in litres per day. The
water supply, treatment plant and transmission lines should be designed
to handle the maximum day demand.
 Peak Hourly Demand (PHD) - The maximum volume of water
delivered to the system in a single hour expressed in litres per day.
Distribution systems should be designed to adequately handle the peak
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hourly demand or maximum day demand plus fire flows, whichever is
 Peak Water Use Estimation

 Demand factor or peaking factor expresses ratio of demand under

certain conditions to average daily demand.

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 Fire Demand
 Fire flow is defined as the rate of water flow needed to
control a fire (AWWA, 2008).

 Adequate fire flow is critical for the effective extinguishing

of a fire.

 If the fire flow is over calculated, there could be a negative

impact on the water distribution systems. If the fire flow is
undercalculated, a fire may result in the loss of the building
and more importantly lives.

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 Fire Demand

 Fire demand can be estimated from the following

(Insurance Services Office) formula:

F (m3/day) = 320 C (A)0.5 where A in m2

C = a coefficient related to the type of construction and

existence of automatic sprinkler
C = 1.5 for wood frame construction
C = 0.8 for noncombustible construction
C = 1.0 for ordinary construction
 Fire Demand

 Fire demand can also be estimated in terms of

population (National Board of Fire Underwriters-
American Insurance Association):

F (L/min) = 4637 √P (1 – 0.01 √P)

where P is population in thousands

Fire flow duration: The duration during the

required fire flow must be available for 4 to 10 hours.
National Board of Fire recommends providing for a
10 hours fire in towns exceeding 2500 in population.
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 Fire Demand:
Insurance Services Office Formula (ISO, 1980)

• According to ISO required fire flow for individual building can be

calculated by:

NFFi : Required fire flow at location

Ci : Construction factor based on the size of the building and its
construction
Oi : Occupancy factor reflecting kinds of materials stored in the
buildings (0.75-1.25)
(X+P)i: Sum of the exposure factor and communication factor
reflecting proximity and exposure of other buildings (1-1.75)

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 Fire Demand: Fire Hydrants
 A fire hydrant is an active fire
protection measure, and a source of
water provided in most urban,
suburban and rural areas with
municipal water service to
enable firefighters to tap into the
municipal water supply to assist in
extinguishing a fire.

Fire hydrant in
Charlottesville,
Virginia, USA

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 Fire Demand: Fire Hydrants Spacing and Discharge
 Guidelines are not universally defined and varies wide
according to municipality. Typical information on spacing
and discharge are given below;

 Capacity of a fire hydrant is 30 m3/h (500L/min) to 60 m3/h

(1000L/min) and should be within 40m (130ft) to 50m(165ft)
from every object. This results in fire hydrants every 80m
(262ft) to 100m (328ft) in a distribution network.
 Looking at single- family houses with an average width of 4
(13ft) to 5 (16ft) meters, this means that for every 20 to 25
houses a fire hydrant is needed.
 Required fire flows, plus domestic demand, must be
available within the water system at a minimum of 20 psi
(150kPa) residual pressure.

 For details refer to guideline of fire hydrant spacing & fire

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flow requirements issued by municipality
 Design Flow
 The required capacities consist of various combinations of
 the maximum daily demand
 maximum hourly demand
 and the fire demand.

 Maximum daily demand is used for capacity of delivery pipelines from

the water source to the treatment plant as well as the treatment
plant itself

 The flow rates and pressures in the distribution system are analyzed
under both maximum daily plus fire demand and the maximum hourly
demand, and the larger flow rate governs the design.

 Pumps are sized for a variety of conditions from maximum daily to maximum
hourly demand, depending on their function in the distribution system.

 Additional reserve capacity is usually installed in water-supply systems to

allow for redundancy and maintenance requirements.

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 Peak Water Use Estimation

 Demand factor or peaking factor expresses ratio of demand under

certain conditions to average daily demand.

42
 Design Flow: Example
 A community with a population of 22,000 has an
average consumption of 600 Lpc/d and a fire flow
dictated by a building of ordinary construction with a
floor area of 1000 m2 and a height of 6 stories.
Determine the required capacity of the pipe
distribution system.

Avg. daily consumption = 600 × 22000 = 132 × 105

Lpd = 13,200 m3 /day
Max. daily consumption = 1.8 × Avg. daily rate =
1.8×13,200 = 23, 760 m3 /day
Max. hourly consumption = 2.7×Avg. daily rate =
3.25×13,200 = 42,900 m3/day
F = 320 C √A = 320 ×1× (√1000×6) = 24,787 m 3/day
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 Design Flow: Example
The fire flow duration = 10 hr
The total flow required during this day = 23,
760 m3 /day + 24,787 (10/24) = 34,000 m3 /day
< Max. hourly rate (42,900 m3 /day)
Then, the pipe capacity must be 42,900 m 3/day

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 Design Flow: Example
Estimate the municipal water demands for a city of 225,000
persons, assuming the average daily consumption 600 Lpc/d.

Qavg = 600 L/cd × 225,000 c = 135,000,000 L/d = 1.35 × 105

m3/day
Qmax = 1.8 × 1.35 × 105 = 2.43 × 105 m3/day
Q (m3/hr) = 231.6 √P (1 – 0.01 √P) = 231.6 √225 (1 – 0.01
√225) = 2,952.9 m3/hr = 49.215 m3/min
For 10-hr duration of daily rate:
Q = 2,952.9 m3/hr × (10 h/day) = 0.3 × 105 m3/day
The total flow required = 2.43 × 105 + 0.3 × 105 = 2.73 × 105
m3/day
Qmax. hourly = 2.7 × 1.35 × 105 = 3.645 × 105 m3/day
Compare and take the larger which will be 3.645 × 105 m3/day
45