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Statistical Thinking and Applications: THE MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL OF QUALITY, 5e, © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Learning

The document discusses statistical thinking and applications. It covers topics like variation in production processes, understanding variation, descriptive statistics, important probability distributions, sampling methods, design of experiments, and process capability. Statistical methods and their application to quality control are emphasized throughout.

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abdalla jaradat
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26 views

Statistical Thinking and Applications: THE MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL OF QUALITY, 5e, © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Learning

The document discusses statistical thinking and applications. It covers topics like variation in production processes, understanding variation, descriptive statistics, important probability distributions, sampling methods, design of experiments, and process capability. Statistical methods and their application to quality control are emphasized throughout.

Uploaded by

abdalla jaradat
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Chapter 9

Statistical Thinking
and Applications

THE MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL OF QUALITY, 5e, © 2002 South-Western/Thomson LearningTM 1


Statistical Thinking
• All work occurs in a system of
interconnected processes
• Variation exists in all processes
• Understanding and reducing variation
are the keys to success

THE MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL OF QUALITY, 5e, © 2002 South-Western/Thomson LearningTM 2


Sources of Variation
in Production Processes
Measurement
Operators Methods
Materials Instruments

INPUTS PROCESS OUTPUTS

Tools Human
Machines Environment Inspection
Performance

THE MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL OF QUALITY, 5e, © 2002 South-Western/Thomson LearningTM 3


Variation
• Many sources of uncontrollable variation
exist (common causes)
• Special (assignable) causes of variation
can be recognized and controlled
• Failure to understand these differences
can increase variation in a system

THE MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL OF QUALITY, 5e, © 2002 South-Western/Thomson LearningTM 4


Importance of Understanding
Variation

time
PREDICTABLE

? UNPREDECTIBLE

THE MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL OF QUALITY, 5e, © 2002 South-Western/Thomson LearningTM 5


Two Fundamental
Management Mistakes
• Treating as a special cause any fault,
complaint, mistake, breakdown, accident
or shortage when it actually is due to
common causes
• Attributing to common causes any fault,
complaint, mistake, breakdown, accident
or shortage when it actually is due to a
special cause
THE MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL OF QUALITY, 5e, © 2002 South-Western/Thomson LearningTM 6
Note to Instructors
• The following slides can be used to guide a
class demonstration and discussion of the
Deming Red Bead experiment using small
bags of M&M’s® Chocolate Candies, from
a suggestion I found on a TQ newsgroup
several years ago. The good output (“red
beads”) are the blue M&Ms, with the
instructor playing the role of Dr. Deming.
THE MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL OF QUALITY, 5e, © 2002 South-Western/Thomson LearningTM 7
We’re Going into Business!!!
We have a new global customer and have to start
up several factories. So I need teams of 5 to do
the work:

1 production worker
2 inspectors
1 Chief Inspector
1 Recorder

THE MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL OF QUALITY, 5e, © 2002 South-Western/Thomson LearningTM 8


Production Setup
1. Take the bag in your left hand.

2. Tear a 3/4” opening in the right corner.


(only large enough for one piece at a
time)

THE MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL OF QUALITY, 5e, © 2002 South-Western/Thomson LearningTM 9


Production Process
1. Production worker produces 10 pieces
and places them on the napkin.
2. Each inspector, independently, counts
the blue ones, and passes to the Chief
Inspector to verify.
3. If Chief Inspector agrees, s/he tells
the recorder, who reports it to me.

THE MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL OF QUALITY, 5e, © 2002 South-Western/Thomson LearningTM 10


Do it right
the first
time!

Take Pride in
Your Work!
Be a Quality Worker!
THE MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL OF QUALITY, 5e, © 2002 South-Western/Thomson LearningTM 11
Lessons Learned
• Quality is made at the top.
• Rigid procedures are not enough.
• People are not always the main source of
variability.
• Numerical goals are often meaningless.
• Inspection is expensive and does not
improve quality.

THE MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL OF QUALITY, 5e, © 2002 South-Western/Thomson LearningTM 12


Statistical Methods
• Descriptive statistics
• Statistical inference
• Predictive statistics

THE MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL OF QUALITY, 5e, © 2002 South-Western/Thomson LearningTM 13


Review of Key Concepts
• Random variables
• Probability distributions
• Populations and samples
• Point estimates
• Sampling distributions
• Standard error of the mean
THE MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL OF QUALITY, 5e, © 2002 South-Western/Thomson LearningTM 14
Important Probability
Distributions
• Discrete
– Binomial
– Poisson
• Continuous
– Normal
– Exponential

THE MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL OF QUALITY, 5e, © 2002 South-Western/Thomson LearningTM 15


Central Limit Theorem
• If simple random samples of size n are
taken from any population, the
probability distribution of sample means
will be approximately normal as n
becomes large.

THE MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL OF QUALITY, 5e, © 2002 South-Western/Thomson LearningTM 16


Sampling Methods
• Simple random sampling
• Stratified sampling
• Systematic sampling
• Cluster sampling
• Judgment sampling

THE MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL OF QUALITY, 5e, © 2002 South-Western/Thomson LearningTM 17


Sampling Error
• Sampling error (statistical error)
• Nonsampling error (systematic error)
• Factors to consider:
– Sample size
– Appropriate sample design

THE MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL OF QUALITY, 5e, © 2002 South-Western/Thomson LearningTM 18


Design of Experiments
• A test or series of tests to compare two or
more methods to determine which is better,
or to determine levels of controllable factors
to optimize the yield of a process or
minimize the variability of a response
variable.
• Factorial experiment
– Analysis of all combinations of factor levels to
understand main effects and interactions

THE MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL OF QUALITY, 5e, © 2002 South-Western/Thomson LearningTM 19


Excel Descriptive Statistics Tool
• Tools…Data Analysis… Descriptive Statistics

THE MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL OF QUALITY, 5e, © 2002 South-Western/Thomson LearningTM 20


THE MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL OF QUALITY, 5e, © 2002 South-Western/Thomson LearningTM 21
Excel Histogram Tool
• Tools…Data Analysis…Histogram

THE MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL OF QUALITY, 5e, © 2002 South-Western/Thomson LearningTM 22


THE MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL OF QUALITY, 5e, © 2002 South-Western/Thomson LearningTM 23
Process Capability
• The range over which the natural variation
of a process occurs as determined by the
system of common causes
• Measured by the proportion of output that
can be produced within design
specifications

THE MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL OF QUALITY, 5e, © 2002 South-Western/Thomson LearningTM 24


Types of Capability Studies
• Peak performance study - how a process
performs under ideal conditions
• Process characterization study - how a
process performs under actual operating
conditions
• Component variability study - relative
contribution of different sources of
variation (e.g., process factors,
measurement system)
THE MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL OF QUALITY, 5e, © 2002 South-Western/Thomson LearningTM 25
Process Capability Study
1. Choose a representative machine or process
2. Define the process conditions
3. Select a representative operator
4. Provide the right materials
5. Specify the gauging or measurement method
6. Record the measurements
7. Construct a histogram and compute descriptive statistics: mean and standard deviation
8. Compare results with specified tolerances

THE MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL OF QUALITY, 5e, © 2002 South-Western/Thomson LearningTM 26


Process Capability
(a) (b)
specification specification

natural variation natural variation

(c) (d)
specification specification

natural variation natural variation

THE MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL OF QUALITY, 5e, © 2002 South-Western/Thomson LearningTM 27


Process Capability Index
Cp = UTL - LTL
6
Cpu = UTL - 
3
Cpl =  - LTL
3
Cpk = min{ Cpl, Cpu }

THE MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL OF QUALITY, 5e, © 2002 South-Western/Thomson LearningTM 28


PROCESS_CAPABILITY.XLS

THE MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL OF QUALITY, 5e, © 2002 South-Western/Thomson LearningTM 29

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