Ocean Information Services

Livelihood, Sea Safety, Disasters Mitigation/ Preparedness

M. Nagaraja Kumar
Scientist & In-charge, Marine Fishery Advisory Services (MFAS)
INCOIS, Ministry of Earth Sciences
[email protected]

AP HRDI Residential Training Programme on

“Mainstreaming of Disaster Risk Reduction & Climate Change
Adaption”
The Mission of INCOIS
To provide the Ocean Information and Advisory
Services to Society, Industry, Government Agencies
and Scientific Community through Sustained Ocean
Observations and Constant improvements through
Systematic and Focussed Research.
 What is a Tsunami ?

 A system of ocean
gravity waves formed
as a result of large-
scale displacement of
sea surface. Travel
long distances without
losing energy
 “Tsunami” in Japanese
means “harbor wave”
 Indian Ocean Tsunami of December 26,
2004
 The worst tsunami in recorded history
on December 26, 2004
 Magnitude 9.3 (second strongest
earthquake ever recorded on a
seismograph)
 Lasted 10 minutes (longest lasting
earthquake in history)
 229,866 confirmed dead, which
includes 42,883 missing and never
accounted for
 More than $7 billion dollars damage

Reasons for huge loss…..

 Many nations in the Indian Ocean did not even recognize the word
“tsunami”
 None had tsunami preparedness programs in place
 Absence of a Tsunami Early Warning System (TEWS) in India
 Ignorance of the natural signs of a tsunami led to inappropriate
actions
 Tsunami Characteristics

 Length and Time Period

 Long wave length (of several 100 km)
 Periods of a few minutes to about an hour
 Speed proportional to square root of water depth
 500 to 1000 km per hour in Deep Ocean
 About 30 km per hour near shore
 Height of Tsunami Wave
 Less than a meter in the Deep Ocean
 Grows to Tens of meters near shore

IN DEEP OCEAN tsunami has long wavelength, travels

fast, small amplitude - doesn’t affect ships
AS IT APPROACHES SHORE, it slows. Since energy is
conserved, amplitude builds up - very damaging
 Causes of Tsunamis
Any impulse that causes large scale displacement of the sea surface.

• Earthquakes

• Landslide

• Volcanic eruptions

• Meteoroids Impact
 Status before 2004
 The worst tsunami in recorded history on December
26, 2004
 Magnitude 9.1 (third strongest earthquake ever
recorded on a seismograph)
 Lasted 10 minutes (longest lasting earthquake in
history)
 Toll of 238,000 causalities, including 51,500 missing
 In India, 16,3899 causalities including 5,640 missing
 More than $7 billion dollars damage
 Severe damage to ecosystem such as mangroves,
coral reefs, forests, coastal wetlands, vegetation,
sand dunes and rock formations, animal and plant
biodiversity and groundwater

Reasons for huge loss…

• Limited risk assessments
• Limited seismic & sea level data
• No Tsunami Early Warning System
• Limited/No community awareness
• Extremely limited response planning
• No coordinated international effort
 Potential Tsunamigenic Zones
Tsunamis are primarily caused due to
large undersea Earthquakes.

Makran Subduction For a tsunami to hit Indian coast, it is

Zone necessary that a tsunamigenic
earthquake occurs and its
magnitude should be larger than M
7. Possible locations of such events
are enclosed in ellipse
Car Nicobar
(M7.9),
Earthquakes with Slow Rupture
Makran (M8.5)
Dec. 31, 1881 Velocities are most efficient Tsunami
Nov. 27, 1945
Generators
Sumatra (M9.3)
Dec. 26, 2004

Andaman- 75% of earthquake energy is released

Sumatra (M8.5) Sumatra in the circum-Pacific belt – 900
Apr. 11, 2012 Subduction Zone Tsunamis in 20th Century

20% in the Alpine-Himalayan belt – 6

Sumatra (M8.2) Tsunamis in 20th Century
Apr. 11, 2012

Historical Tsunami in India

Bengkulu (M8.4) 12 Apr, 1762 (BoB EQ) – 1.8 M
Sep 12, 2007 31 Dec, 1881 (Car Nicobar EQ)
27 Aug, 1883 (Krakatoa) – 2 M
> M7 26 Jun, 1941 (Andaman EQ)
Java (M7.8)
July 17, 2006
27 Nov, 1945 (Makran EQ) – 12 M
26 Dec, 2004 (Sumatra EQ)

Landslides, Volcanoes & Meteor

Impacts can also generate Tsunamis
 Tsunami Risk Assessment
Tsunami Travel Times & Response time
• Depending upon the Earthquake location (Makran/Andaman-Sumatra Subduction Zone) the response
time for evacuation of coastal population could range between 10 min to few hours.
• As Andaman & Nicobar Islands situated right on subduction zone the available response time is very
short

Makran Subduction Zone Andaman-Sumatra Subduction Zone

• If Earthquake happens at Nicobar Islands , travel

• If Earthquake occurs at Makran Subduction times to nearest coast (A&N Islands) are 20 to 30
zone, Travel Time to nearest Indian Coast min
(Gujarat) are 2 to 3 hrs • For Indian main land travel times are 2 to 3 hrs
 Indian Tsunami Early Warning System
Risk Assessment Detection, Warning, Dissemination Awareness, Response

COMMS Tests
Tsunami Drills
Trainings
Publicity Material

Bathymetry
VSAT
TSUNAMI
Historic EQ DB Seismic Network
WARNINGS!!!

INSAT Capacity Building

Tsunami Modelling

DSS
Paleo tsunami studies BPR Network SOP
GPRS ICT Infra.
Topography
R&D
Paleo-tsunami
Modelling
GNSS Data Use
INMARSAT

Tsunami Travel Times

Participating Institutions
Tide gauge Network Costal Vulnerability IMD, NIOT, ICMAM, SOI,
NRSC, INCOIS , MHA, NDMA,
Observation Networks Communications Warning Centre
Coastal States, Academia
Tsunami Warning Centre

24 x 7 operations

Heterogeneous Real-Time Data from a variety of Sensors

Data Acquisition, Display, Processing, Archival
Numerical Modeling and Decision Support
Generation of Advisories and Dissemination
Mission Critical - Infrastructure to be highly available
Real-time Seismic Monitoring
•• Pre
Pre 2004:
2004: Very
Very few
few real-time
real-time seismometers
seismometers and and there
there was
was nono
real-time
real-time earthquake
earthquake monitoring
monitoring inin the
the Indian
Indian Ocean
Ocean
•• INCOIS-IMD
INCOIS-IMD established
established Real-Time
Real-Time Seismic
Seismic Network
Network of of 17
17
stations
stations
•• Established
Established real-time
real-time connectivity
connectivity to
to seismic
seismic stations
stations operated
operated
by
by Individual PIs and brought them under Indian Seismic &
Individual PIs and brought them under Indian Seismic &
GNSS
GNSS Network
Network
•• Receives
Receives data
data from
from ~350
~350 international
international stations
stations
2014 •• Shares
Shares data
data from
from 33 Indian
Indian stations
stations
•• Currently,
Currently, ITEWC
ITEWC isis capable
capable ofof estimating
estimating earthquake
earthquake
parameters
parameters in in near
near real-time
real-time (<
(< 10
10 minutes
minutes after
after the
the event)
event)
Real-time Sea Level Monitoring
 Tide-Gauge
Tide-Gauge Network
Network
•• Pre
Pre 2004:
2004: No
No real-time
real-time tide-gauges
tide-gauges in in India,
India, SOI
SOI operated
operated offline
offline tide
tide
gauges
gauges
•• INCOIS
INCOIS established
established real-time
real-time network
network of of 31
31 tide-gauge
tide-gauge stations
stations
•• Receives
Receives data from 300 international real-time tide-gauge stations
data from 300 international real-time tide-gauge stations
•• Shares data from 8 stations
Shares data from 8 stations
 Tsunami
Tsunami Buoy
Buoy Network
Network
•• Pre
Pre 2004:
2004: No
No tsunami
tsunami buoys
buoys
•• INCOIS-NIOT
INCOIS-NIOT established
established real-time
real-time network
network of of 77 Tsunami
Tsunami Buoys
Buoys
•• Receives
Receives data
data from
from ~~ 50
50 international
international real-time
real-time tsunami
tsunami buoys
buoys
•• Shares
Shares data
data from
from 77 stations
stations
 Tsunami Modelling for Operations
• Initially, ITEWC provided advisories with qualitative evaluation message based on
magnitude. Several global centres follow the same method even today.
Tsunami Watch Information
With Qualitative Evaluation Later, Open Ocean Propagation Database was created with
• Model Domain with 3.2 million grids covering entire Indian Ocean
• Scenarios covering both Makran and Sunda Tsunamigenic Zones
• ~1400 unit sources each of 100 X 50 km area representing rupture caused by EQ
of M 7.5 with slip as 1m
• Depending on EQ’s location and magnitude basic unit source open ocean
propagation scenarios are either scaled up or down
• Expected Wave Arrival & Amplitude forecasts at 1800 Costal Forecast Points
(CFPs) in the Indian Ocean Coast
• CFPs are then rendered to create threat profile for Coastal Forecast Zones (CFZs)
• Global domain & subduction zones being modelled

Model Output Parameters

 T1 (Time of arrival of the minimum detectable positive amplitude
wave)
 T2 (Time of first exceedance of the Threat Threshold)
 T3 (Time of arrival of max_beach)
EQ location map Threat Map
 T4 (Time when the last exceedance of the Threat Threshold is
forecast)
• max_beach (Maximum Positive wave amplitude at the shore
line)
• max_deep (Maximum positive wave amplitude in deep water in
each coastal zone)
Travel time map Directivity Map
• Depth (Depth of the water where the max_deep occurs)
 Tsunami Coastal Inundation Modelling
 Inundation modelling by
ICMAM for 4 historical & 2
worst-case scenarios
 1:25000 scale maps using
Cartosat (completed for
West Bengal, Orissa,
Andhra Pradesh,
Tamilnadu, Kerala,
Karnataka, Goa,
Maharashtra, Gujarat)

No. of
 1:5000 scale maps using
STATE Scale of maps
•• ALTM data acquired by NRSC for the coasts Maps
Paradeep- Kochi with spatial resolution of 1-5 WEST BENGAL 21 1:25000 ALTM (Completed for few
ODISHA 31 1:25000
m and vertical accuracy 15-35 cm
ANDHRA PRADESH 62 1:25000
areas in TN)
•• Carto-DTM
Carto-DTM generated
generated by
by NRSC
NRSC for
for the
the Indian
Indian 97 1:25000
Mainland with spatial resolution of 10 m.
• RTK-GPS was data collected in some areas
TAMILNADU 152 1:5000  3D GIS Mapping from
KERALA 61 1:25000
using GPS KERANATAKA, GOA 33 1:25000 Cuddalore to Nagapattinam
•• Bathymetry
Bathymetry data
data from
from NHO
NHO and
and other
other Survey
Survey MAHARASHRTA, GUJARAT 206 1:25000
for some areas
for some areas LAKSHADWEEP ISLANDS 14 1:10000
Service Definition and SOP
• The ITEWC services for an event commence whenever an
earthquake is recorded with M ≥ 6.5 within the Indian
Ocean and M ≥ 8.0 outside of the Indian Ocean
• Uniquely designed SOP for generation of timely and
accurate tsunami bulletins to handle both near-source and
far-source coastal regions
• Based on proximity of a coastal zone to the tsunamigenic
earthquake source regions and Expected Wave Heights
from Models
• 4 Threat Levels corresponding to different public
responses and mapped to NDMA guidelines
 Product Formats & Dissemination
 Notification Messages are issued in text format
 Bulletins are generated in both text and HTML formats on the websites
 Graphics are generated in jpg or png format on the websites
 Spatial data is also available in dbf format on the websites
Tsunami Bulletins on web (www.incois.gov.in)
Tsunami Bulletins on web
 Sample Bulletins
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NOTIFICATION MESSAGE 1
INDIAN TSUNAMI EARLY WARNING CENTER (ITEWC)
TEXT Bulletin Tsunami
ISSUED AT: 0803 IST Tuesday 04 June 2013
Information on
TO: NATIONAL NTWC BULLETIN RECIPIENTS Web
FROM: ITEWC

NOTIFICATION:
ITEWC INCOIS HAS JUST ISSUED BULLETIN 1 (PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION)
FOR THE INDIA, BASED ON THE FOLLOWING EARTHQUAKE EVENT:

MAGNITUDE: 5.5 M
DEPTH: 45 km
DATE: 04 Jun 2013
ORIGIN TIME: 0752 IST
LATITUDE: 45.49 N
LONGITUDE: 150.79 E
LOCATION: Kuril Islands

TO VIEW THE BULLETIN GO TO ITEWC INCOIS WEBSITE AT:

www.incois.gov.in/DSSProducts/Product_NTWC/dss130604022200_index_NTWC_pub.htm

NTWC IS A SERVICE OF ITEWC, INCOIS FOR PROVIDING TSUNAMI ADVISORIES FOR INDIA.

GENERAL PUBLIC INFORMATION FOR THIS EVENT IS AVAILABLE FROM:

INDIAN TSUNAMI EARLY WARNING CENTER (ITEWC)

INDIAN NATIONAL CENTRE FOR OCEAN INFORMATION SERVICES (INCOIS)
ADDRESS:"OCEAN VALLEY", PRAGATHI NAGAR (BO), NIZAMPET (SO),
HYDERABAD - 500 090, INDIA.
PHONE: 91-40-23895011
FAX: 91-40-23895012
EMAIL: [email protected]
WEB: WWW.INCOIS.GOV.IN

YOU ARE RECEIVING THIS "NOTIFICATION MESSAGE" VIA DSS_1_0 (MANUAL (INTERACTIVE))
CONFIGURED TO SEND MAIL FROM [email protected]

END OF NOTIFICATION MESSAGE

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tsunami Threat
map on Web
Time line
8.5 M earthquake on April 11, 2012
14:08 Earthquake

8.5 M
14:16 Bulletin - 1

14:20 Bulletin - 2

15:21 Bulletin - 3

15:48 Bulletin - 4
Warning for Indira 16:13 Earthquake
Point, Komatra &
Katchal Island and
Car Nicobar 8.2 M
16:19 Bulletin - 1
Observed water
level 1.0 M change at
Meulaboh & 0.2 M at Alert for Indira
Nicobar Point, Komatra &
16:46 Bulletin - 2 Katchal Island and
17:02 Bulletin - 5 Car Nicobar

17:08 Bulletin - 3 Observed water

level 0.2M change at
Meulaboh
17:33 Bulletin - 4

18:08 Bulletin - 6 Bulletin - 5

ALL CLEAR 18:29 ALL CLEAR
 South West of Sumatra earthquake on 02 Mar 2016
South West of Sumatra, Indonesia Earthquake of Magnitude 7.8
Very minor Tsunami was generated
On 02-Mar-2016 12:49 UTC (18:19 IST)
INCOIS issued No-Threat Bulletin for Indian Coast
ITEWC, India Bulletin Maps

ITEWC, India JATWC, Australia InaTEWS, Indonesia

INCOIS issued No-Threat bulletin for India and JATWC issued Threat bulletin for Indonesia, No-Threat for Indian Ocean
Threat bulletin for few locations near by Australia, India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Countries
locations of Indonesia (EWA ≥ 0.5 m). Lanka, Maldives, Mauritius, Seychelles and
Timore-Leste (EWA ≥ 0.5 m).

JATWC, Australia Threat Map Minor Sea level changes observed (~ 10cm) in Tide gauges
 Capacity Building
Workshops, Trainings, Education Material
etc
 Communication Tests
 Communication Tests
1. March 16, 2011 (NTWCs)
2. June 15, 2011 (NTWCs & National DMOs)
3. September 14, 2011 (NTWCs & National DMOs)
4. December 14, 2011 (NTWCs)
5. June 13, 2012 (NTWCs)
6. December 12, 2012 (NTWCs)
7. June 13, 2013 (NTWCs & National DMOs)
8. December 11, 2013 (NTWCs)
9. June 11, 2014 (NTWCs)
10. December 10, 2014 (NTWCs)
11. June 10, 2015 (NTWCs)
 Modes of Communication
• International: Email, Fax, GTS, SMS, Web
• National: Email, Fax, SMS, Web
 Performance till now:
• Compared 10 COMMs test results
• Email the most significant mode of communication
15 Jun 2011 14 Sep 2011 14 Dec 2011 13 Jun 2012 12 Dec 2012 12 Jun 2013 11 Dec 2013 11 Jun 2014

No. of Time No. of Time

Time No. of Time No. of Time No. of Time No. of Time No. of Time No. of Time NTWCs Delay NTWCs Delay
Delay NTWCs Delay NTWCs Delay NTWCs Delay NTWCs Delay NTWCs Delay NTWCs Delay Received (Mins) Received (Mins)
(Mins) Received (Mins) Received (Mins) Received (Mins) Received (Mins) Received (Mins) Received (Mins)

0 – 48 20/22 0 – 48 22/23 0 – 15 17/19 0–9 18/21 0–2 15/17 0–4 19/20 0-5 21/21 0 - 16 21/23 0 - 28

0 – 61 10/22 0 – 91 12/23 0 – 93 13/19 0 – 35 12/21 0 – 35 6/17 0 – 32 15/20 0- 184 18/21 0- 32 13/23 0 - 20

0–5 17/22 0 – 17 17/23 0 – 26 16/19 0 – 25 15/21 0–7 12/17 0 – 14 14/20 0 – 40 17/21 0-4 19/23 0 - 10

-- -- -- 13/23 0 – 13 15/19 0 – 23 15/21 0–1 14/17 0–3 14/20 0-9 15/21 0-2 14/23 0- 37
 Tsunami Mock Drills
 Objectives of Mock Drill:
 Validate the Warning Centre dissemination process for issuing
Tsunami Advisory Bulletins to national disaster management
authorities and other participating agencies.
 Evaluate the processes and procedures of agencies receiving and
confirming Tsunami Bulletins.
 Hone the organizational decision making process about public
warnings and evacuations.
 Identify the proper communication methods that would be used to
notify and instruct the public.
 Record and assess the elapsed time until the public would be
notified and instructed.
Drills Evaluation
 Previous Drills Message Reception Time Delay (minutes)
• IOWave09 on October 14, 2009 Mode 12 Oct, 2011 09 Sep, 2014 10 Sep, 2014
• IOWave11 on October 12, 2011 0-94 0 – 14 0–5
Email
• A&N Islands on November 22, 2013 0-111 0 – 30 0 – 30
• IOWave14 on September 9 & 10, 2014 Fax
• 0-20 0–6 0–8
East Coast of India on September 26, 2015 SMS
• Kerala Coast on March 10-11, 2016
Time taken to notify public
Elapsed Time (in min)
Activity Odisha Puducherry Maharashtra
2011 2014 2011 2014 2011
Making a decision on public warning
5 10 10 20 20
(from time of receipt of warning)
Formulation of public notification (from time of decision) 5 5 5 15 40
Activation of public notification systems 10
5 5 15 25
(from time of notification formulated)
Total Time 20 min 20 min 20 min 50 min 1 hr 20 min
 Tsunami Mock Drill for East Coast of India in 2015
• INCOIS conducted Tsunami Mock drill in
collaboration with Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA)
and NDRF held on 26 September 2015
• Tsunami Standard Operating Procedure (SOP)
workshop on 26 August 2015 at INCOIS; total 51
officials attend to the workshop from disaster
management authorities of east coast states, NDRF,
Indian Navy, Coast guard
• Issued 7 bulletins during 0930 hrs to 1330 hrs using a
scenario of a 9.0 magnitude earthquake in the
Andaman Islands
• Village level evacuations were carried out in all
coastal district of East Coast of India are 11 villages in
Andhra Pradesh, 6 districts in Odisha, 1 village in
Puducherry, 4 villages in Tamil Nadu and 6 villages in
West Bengal

• The Tsunami mock exercise was very successful which made

awareness and preparedness among the coastal people of East
Coast of India.
• Response time was varying from 15-70 minutes to notify the
public and average time was 33 minutes
• Total around 11,178 people were evacuated to shelters/safe
places during mock drill
• Different mode of communications Telephone, SMS, Public radio,
TV, website, Siren, Public Alert System, Police, Door-to-door,
Mega phone, VHF, etc. were used
• Most of recipients agreed the exercise was very satisfactory and
to conducts regular Mock exercise to create more awareness as
well as preparedness among the public
 Lessons Learnt from Tsunami mock drills
Warning Centre dissemination process
ITWEC disseminated bulletins through Email, Fax, SMS and Web to concern contacts
State/District/Mandal level DMO contact list to be updated
Stakeholders reception process
Few of the DMOs reported they did not received the messages, requested DMOs to send their updated contact
(Email/Fax/SMS) lists to ITEWC
DMOs recommend to establish dedicated Auto-Fax machine at each District/ Emergency operation centre
Email/fax messages should contain detailed information because if there would be any failure or non-availability of
internet connectivity, the information in the bulletin cannot accessed
Organizational decision making
Involvement of line departments, NGOs and Welfare societies need to be improved
Training programs need to be conducted to the Officials, NGOs and Welfare association members and local people on
SOPs, method of Evacuation, Rescue Operations and shelter management
Communication methods to notify public
PA System (VHF), SMS, Telephone, Siren, door-to-door announcement, Megaphones, Radio broadcasts, TV, Public
call centre, Tom–Tom
Last-mile Communication Plan including all modes of dissemination is required
Sufficient required material and equipments such as mega phones/Emergency lights to be provided by the DMOs to all
the concern locality
Dedicated Siren systems to be installed in the most vulnerable regions
Capacity Building Initiatives
DMOs should be encouraged to prepare evacuation maps and routes at the village level
The stakeholders should be regularly trained/oriented on their role and responsibilities especially the local
administrative officers at village and block levels
Local community (near-source regions) should be well trained to react to natural signs
 Upcoming Tsunami Mock Drill
IOWave16 (7-8 Sep 2016)
07 September 2016
12 hours duration and 15 bulletins will be issued
Scenario-1 (Sumatra Region)
 Date: 7 September 2016 (Wednesday)
 Time: 8:30 IST (3:00 UTC)
 Magnitude: 9.2 Mw
 Depth : 10 km
 Latitude : 1.93S
 Longitude : 99.22E
 Region: South of Sumatra, Indonesia
 Upcoming Tsunami Mock Drill
IOWave16 (7-8 Sep 2016)
8 September 2016
12 hours duration and 15 bulletins will be issued

Scenario-2 (Makran Region)

 Date: 8 September 2016 (Thursday)
 Time: 11:30 IST (6:00 UTC)
 Magnitude: 9.0 Mw
 Depth : 10 km
 Latitude : 24.8N
 Longitude : 62.2E
 Region: South of Gwadar, Pakistan
 GPS & SMA data for Tsunami Warnings
• GPS & Strong Motion Accelerometers Network of 35 Figure: Synthetic Vs Observations
stations at A & N Islands is being established

 Construction work completed at 22 locations and at remaining

9 locations construction work is in progress
Figure: Test results for Chile Tsunami
• Installations completed at 16 locations, in progress at other
GNSS & SMA data inversion for estimating source parameters
• Using seismic data, estimation of source parameters takes
approx. 30-60 min. However, for tsunami early warning it is
very important to estimate these parameters within 30 min
• The co-seismic displacement data from GPS & SMA stations is
inverted to derive source parameters and to estimate moment
magnitude (Mw) within 30 min
• Algorithm developed using synthetic data and evaluated using
historical earthquakes data
 Indian Seismic and GPS Network
 Data from 133 stations (103 seismic + 30 GPS) is being received at ISGN data centres:
 53 stations are through VSAT and 47 through terrestrial MPLS link.
www.isgn.gov.in

 Integration of 32 sensors of NCS with VSAT

 Historical Data Archived at INCOIS & IMD: 3.5 TB (only
seismic)
 Data available via Web: (1.5 TB seismic + 280 GB GPS)
 No. of Users: 61 (PIs: 22 + Other users:39)
 Data provided to each PI per month: 5 to 10 GB in ftp
 Earthquake data provided for Afghanistan of M6.3 on Dec
25, 2015 and Myanmar-India border EQ of M6.7 on Jan 3,
2016
 Network is capable of accommodating 500 stations
 Andaman Network (35) : Procurement by March 2016 and installation will be by Dec'16.
 RIMES (20), DDS (20), MoES (25) in July 2016 supply and installation will be by Apr'17.
 Seismic Network & TSP Performance Indicators
ITEWC monitored 41 earthquakes during 1 April, 2015 – 31 March, 2016

Region Ocean Land

Indian Ocean 05 06

Global Ocean 28 02

Target Achievement Achievement

Parameter (local/distant) Global Ocean Indian Ocean
Elapse time from earthquake origin time to initial 10/15 min 9.57 min 8.20 min
earthquake information issuance
Probability of detection of Indian Ocean 100% 100% 100%
earthquakes with Mw ≥ 6.5
Accuracy of hypocenter location (with respect to Within 30 km 18.57 Km 14.40 Km
USGS final estimates)
Accuracy of hypocentre depth (with respect to Within 25 km 16.81 Km 19.20 Km
USGS final estimates)
Accuracy of earthquake Mw magnitude (with 0.3 0.13 0.14
respect to USGS final estimates)
 India as Tsunami Service Provider (TSP)
ITEWC is playing major role in UNESCO/IOC Tsunami Warning Initiatives
• Indian Scientists played a major role in designing the IOTWMS system
• India had been Founding Chair and currently Chair of ICG/IOTWMS
• India had been vice-chair for IOWave Task Team
• India is Chair for Task Team on Tsunami Watch Operations which is working
towards Global Harmonization
• IOTWS is a network of National Systems consisting of TSPs and
NTWCs/NTFPs
• TSPs distribute products to NTWCs and other TSPs within a region and as a
backup of each region there should be more than one RTSP for each region
• NTWCs/NTFPs are solely responsible for providing warnings to their citizens
based on their analysis of the situation
• India first to initiate exchange of Earthquake information (SL-1) in 2008
• In 2011 formally India started exchanging Model based advisories (SL-2)
• On October 12, 2011 UNESCO handed over the responsibility of Indian Ocean
tsunami advisories to the Tsunami Service Providers India, Australia,
Indonesia
• As a Tsunami Service Provider (TSP) India is providing bulletins to all Indian
Ocean rim countries, together with TSPs Australia & Indonesia
Parameter Targets Achievements
Elapse Time from EQ to Initial EQ info issuance 10/15 min 10 Min
(Local/Distant)
Probability of Detection of IO EQ with Mw >= 6.5 100 % Achieved
Accuracy of Hypocenter Location within 30 km 9.5 km
Accuracy of Hypocenter Depth within 25 km 22.5 km
Accuracy of Earthquake Mw Magnitude 0.3 0.2
Reliability of RTWP Operations Achieved
99.5%
(Power, Computer, Communications)
 Operational Storm Surge Warning

Input
Dissemination
Bathymetry/ Modeling
topography

ADCIRC Tide alone WEB

(Spin-up with Tide alone solution
Unstructured simulation at HPC)
Spin-up for 2 months. 320 η u v
processors are using.
mesh E-Mail

Bulletin
ADCIRC + SWAN generation
Atmospheric forcing (Tide + Surge + Wave ) η u v SMS

Output
Inundation
H2010 WRF extent
FAX
Requires track Requires
& intensity or initial
info from IMD conditions
from
NCMRWF

Forcing to the model

 Validation of Storm Surge - Hudhud

Real time storm surge forecasting for ‘Hudhud’ by INCOIS

Finite element mesh of Chennai region

Hydrodynamic model ADCIRC makes use of finite element

unstructured mesh. Tide can be predicted at any location
along the coast.

Accuracy of the model is corroborated by years of successful

tidal prediction well documented in the literature, making
the ADCIRC model a logical component of any tidal
Validation of ADCIRC predicted water level at Chennai
prediction system
Visualization and Analysis System for 2D and 3D Geospatial data
(3DVAS)
Generation of 3D GIS Maps Risk analysis and advisory

3D Buildings 3D VAS

Landuse

Roads & Landmarks

Topography Base Maps, Hazard Maps,

vulnerability maps, database of
tsunami and storm surge inundation
modeling results, event data, etc.
Building Base
Ground Survey: GCP,
Leveling, Field Photos,
Base Satellite Data Socio-economic census, etc

Vulnerability maps integrated with 3D GIS database will aid in making effective disaster management plans
 Sea Safety –
Ocean State Forecast
 Ocean State Forecast Service
Safety at Sea
Satellite Observations (SSW, SSH)
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• Global, Regional, Coastal, Island, Location- Fo W

Specific Wave Forecasts (significant wave

height, wave direction, swell height and ast as
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• Forecast of SST and currents, mixed layer av
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• High Wave Alerts; Search and Rescue ill t Cu
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• Oil Spill Trajectory, Forecast along ship- Oi urf
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track , Navy specific forecast products
• Real time validation System
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• Tidal forecast system for 178 locations
 High Wave Alerts
1. ‘HIGH WAVE ALERT’, specifically notifies the areas along the Indian coast that
will experience the high waves (i.e. > 3.0 m or rapid increase in wave
heights) due to bad weather, approaching cyclone or freak waves originated
elsewhere and traveling towards the Indian coast.

2. "High Wave Alerts" are issued when the forecasted waves based on
mathematical models are higher than 3.0m, at approximately one degree
distance (110 km) from the coastline.

3. This is to bring to the notice of the coastal communities especially the fishing
community for their safety, taking into account their socio-economic
background.

4. This is first posted on the INCOIS web site in multilingual mode. These are
also disseminated via Telephone, EDBs, E-mails, SMS, Radio and TV, Local
newspapers.

5. We also actively interact with local NGOs for disseminating this information.

6. This alert is issued after seeing the model results, buoy observations, inter-
model comparisons, satellite data and other postings on the web.
High Wave Alerts
 Joint INCOIS-IMD Bulletin during Depressions/cyclones
Standard Operating Procedure INCOIS-IMD joint bulletins for High Wave conditions
(Started February 2014 onwards) SOP,
Rapport and liaison with IMD for such activities.
 The main impact of this activity is the operational issuance
of unified forecasts.
 SOP for coastal weather warnings and dissemination
procedures“ is ready.

Could work ~24X7 during cyclonic/depression

Forecast Analysis and Support Tool (FAST) conditions and disseminated the joint INCOIS-IMD
is ready. bulletins.
 Specific Tidal flooding for Kerala coast
EVENT-TYPE: Warning
PRIORITY: 5
ISSSUE-DATE: 28-09-2015
REGION: Kerala

MESSAGE:High swell waves in the range of 2.0 - 2.1 meters are forecasted during
during 28 September 2015 to 03 october 2015, because of the effect of Spring tide and the
chances of high waves, waves may be surged in to low lying coastal areas intermittently.

MESSAGE: Fishermen are advised to be cautious while venturing into the sea and tourists
should be cautious while venturing into the sea.

10/31/13
MUNRO ISLAND (KOLLAM, KERALA) FLOODING

High swell
waves along with
the high water
levels due to the
Perigean Spring
Tides caused
damage and
flooding
 Search and Rescue Aid Tool (SARAT)

Probability Scale
Triangular area boundary
Advisory valid Period: 3 days
Search and Rescue activities (from 11-18
June, 2015) for the missing Indian Coast
Guard aircraft off Karaikal, southeast
coast of India, by assisting the Indian
Coast Guard search and rescue team with
a specialised in house developed SARAT
(Search and Rescue Aid Tool)"
Feedback from Commander Coast Guard for support
module/system - which helps in locating and cooperation given by INCOIS during Search and
lost persons and objects in the sea, based Rescue operations for missed Coast Guard Dornier CG
on the last known position details. 791.
 OIL SPILL TRAJECTORY PREDICTION LAUNCH OF OOSA 2.0 BY DIRECTOR, INCOIS,09.04.2015

OIL SPILL TRAJECTORY OUTPUT IN WEBMAP

INTIAL SPILL POSITION

CONTINUOUS SPILL
TRAJECTORY

ONLINE OILSPILL ADVISORIES

CONTINUOUS SPILL TRAJECTORY
INSTANTANEOUS SPILL TRAJECTORY
 IMPROVED OIL SPILL TRAJECTORY PREDICTION FOR WEST COAST OF INDIA USING HIGH RESOLUTION(1/48º) CURRENTS

PROPOSED INTEGRATION OF PFZ/GEOMORPHOLOGICAL CLASSES PROPOSED IMPROVEMENTS IN OIL SPILL MODELING

1. Estimating the mass budget of the spilled oil with

weathering process using DHI weathering

template

2. Execution of sub surface oil spill trajectory

predictions with Deep -C Model

3. 3D Oil Spill trajectory prediction along with

weathering process using Deep–C/GNOME 2.0

Forecast for Shipping

10/31/13
Forecast for Port and Harbors and Maritime Boards

10/31/13
 Ocean State Forecast system for neighboring countries

Ocean State Forecast system for Sri Lanka and Seychelles in collaboration with
RIMES, inaugurated on 10th July 2015
Ocean Monitoring forecast system for RIMES member
Countries (Seychelles, Sri Lanka and Maldives)

Reception Station 2

10/31/13
Deployment location
Muntro Island
 Livelihood –
Potential Fishing Zone (PFZ)
Scientific Know-How
 To address the livelihood and the safety of sea farmers
◦ Livelihood
 Effective harvesting of fish which are dwindling resources in nature
 Reducing the time for searching of the fish shoals
 Enhance the probability of getting better catches
◦ Safety
 Understand the state of the Ocean (Winds and Waves)
 Know the movement of Cyclones
 Plan the fishing operations (navigation path, direction of casting the
nets)
 Information effectiveness
◦ Right information and Timely
Livelihood
 Locating and catching fish is challenging as fish stocks dwindle
and move further offshore
 Increases the searching time for shoals, fuel cost and human
effort in fishing operations
 Increase of atmospheric Carbon Dioxide with the burning of
fossil fuels
◦ A reliable advisories on the potential zones of fish aggregation
 Fishermen leave for fishing operations in the early morning
and/or in the evenings
 Later very limited access to shore while in sea
 Ways of reaching the users for timely advisories for effective use
of information – ICT plays crucial role
Marine Fishery-The Indian Scenario
 Total Coastline: 8118 kms
 Continental Shelf: 5.3 lakhs Sq. Kms.
 Number of Fish Landing Centers: 1537
 Number of Fishing Villages: 3432
 Number of Fishermen Families: 8,74,749
 Total Fisherfolk Population: 40,56,213
 Fishing Boats : Total – 1,99,141
Traditional Crafts (Non-Motorised): 52,982
Motorised Crafts: 73,410
Mechanised Crafts: 72,749
 Potential: About 4.41 million metric tonnes
 Harnessing:
About 3.32 million metric tonnes in 2012-13 and 3.44 million
metric tonnes in 2013-14 (provisional))
Source: CMFRI Marine Census 2010 and
 DAHD Web (Handbook on Fisheries Statistics 2014)
 Fish Finding - The Heritage
Fishing communities have developed over generations, a mental model for making their conclusions

Bird Congregation

Colour
Fish
Bubbles breaking on Surface
Availability
Type
Muddy and oily water and calm Sea Quantity

Reflection in the Night

Kaladu (a kind of smell)

 Remote Sensing for Fisheries

Niche for Fish

Temperature Light

Salinity Chlorophyll

Dissolved Feeding Nutrients

Breeding
Oxygen
Surface Currents Wind
 Remote Sensing for Fisheries
 Fish schools cannot be seen directly from satellite
altitudes; Indirect methods are used.
 Fish have certain physiological, metabolic and
respiratory requirements which govern their continued
presence in certain areas or habitats for survival
 It is well known that the Fishes are known to react to
changes in the surrounding environment and migrate
to areas where favorable conditions in terms of
seawater temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen
levels, etc., exist.
 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) - indicative of the
physical environment, and Chlorophyll a - indicator of
food availability are easily monitored through
Satellites
Food Chain

Primary producers Phytoplankton

Primary consumers

Secondary consumers

Higher trophic level

e.g. Fishes

Phytoplankton is an index of Primary productivity

 Remote Sensing for Fisheries
Remote Sensing OCM NOAA AVHRR

Influencing Ocean Color SST

Parameters

Upwelling Boundary

Phytoplankton Nutrients

Food Fish Aggregation PFZ

 PFZ Mission
To make the Potential Fishing Zone
R&D Efforts, Modelling,
advisories as part of the value chain of
Technology Development
fishing community
Except During
Marine Fishing
Ban Period

Dissemination
Operational Multi lingual Delivery (Map, Text) Fishing
Fax, Phone, News Paper,
Generation
(SST, Chlorophyll, Wind)
Internet, e-mail, SMS, Mobile Apps
Electronic Display Boards,
Vessels
Daily Radio and TV Broadcast
Information Kiosks (VKC, VRC)

Validation
Feedback
Partners: SAC, NRSC, FSI, Central Fishery Research
User Awareness
Institutions, Academia, State Fishery Departments, Fishermen
Associations, etc
 SST and Chlorophyll Images
• Image Processing techniques for
• Geometric correction
• Filtering
• Geo-coding
 Key Indicators

Integrated PFZ (SST + Chlorophyll + wind)

Methodology developed by SAC/ISRO

Daily operational forecasts from INCOIS

Eddies, Rings, Meanders using real-time satellite data
Tongue/Mushroom features (non-monsoon, non-ban season)
Upwelling ,Thermal Fronts
Potential Fishing Zone (PFZ) Advisories
Potential Fishing Zone (PFZ) Advisory
Maps with information on
Potential Fishing Surface Currents
Zones
Bathymetry Indian EEZ
Indian Coastline Coastal Districts
Restricted Zones for Major Fishing
Fishing Villages

Smart Maps in GIS & PFZ

Text
Success Rate: ~ 80% Benefits
Net Profit: 03 – 04 times
Less Searching Time: 30 to 70%

Total Annual Net income due to use of PFZ

could be Rs.34,000 to Rs. 50,000 Crore -
NCAER

A fishing village of 32 fishing boats in

Raigad Dt., Maharashtra could save 70,000
litres of diesel in a month which cuts down
of 150000 kg of CO2 (@ 2.7 kg/l) emission
– National Agricultural Innovation
Project(NAIP), ICAR
 Species-specific Forecast for Tuna

Feedback from MSSRF Information User: 4400 Kms in 90 days ~ 2 Kms

Date of PFZ advisory: 26th July / Hr ??
Boat owner: Mr. Rajkumar, Exhibited Diurnal Vertical
Nagoor Pattinacherry, Migratory Patterns
Nagapattinam District Mean Vertical Diving Speeds
Fishing boat: Gill Netter 0.2 – 0.5 Kms/Hr
Fishing Date: 29th July Temp Preference of 26 to 29
Catch: 7.5t Tuna deg C
Boats in ground: 100 Fish-1 Depth Preference 70 M
Executive Summary of National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER)
Survey Report and Case Study by NAIP
The additional profit in the hands
of fishers due to PFZ operations
would be around Rs 3,000 crore
annuity with the mere gross
investment of Rs.32 crore (Arrived
at as the future value of past
investments at 12% social
discount rate)

Market Study by National Council

for Applied Economic Research:
The environmental effect of
savings in diesel consumption
computed as carbon credit would
work out to an annuity of Rs
36,200 crore or a present value of
around Rs.2.84 trillion over the
25-year useful life, which is quite
significant

Reaching the entire Case study by National Agricultural Innovation

Project (NAIP) of Indian Council of Agricultural
fishermen community of Research (ICAR)

 Success
Success Rate:
Rate: ~
~ 80%
80% India may improve the

Net Profit: 03 – 04 times
Net Profit: 03 – 04 times real growth rate of gross  A fishing village of 32 fishing boats in Raigad Dt.,

 Less
Less Searching
Searching Time:
Time: 30
30 to
to 70%
70%
value added in marine Maharashtra could save 70,000 litres of diesel in
a month as the PFZ advisories helped them in
fisheries GDP from avoiding the unwanted search for fish shoals
present 3.9% to 7.8 % per  This saving of diesel amounts cutting down of
annum. 150000 kg of CO2 (@ 2.7 kg/l).
 Impact Assessment and Economic Benefits

 Identifications of PFZs as well as Ocean State forecast by INCOIS are found to be

both timely, accurate and of significant value to the fishing community.
 Total Annual net economic benefit due to PFZ: Rs. 34,000 to Rs. 50,000 Crore
 The economic benefits resulting from identification of PFZs to estimate the GDP
 Only mechanized crafts adopt PFZ: Can go upto from 0.81 % to 1.47 to 1.65
% of national GDP
 Both mechanized and motorized crafts adopt PFZ: Can go upto 1.58 to 2 %
of national GDP
 All mechanized crafts, motorised crafts and traditional crafts adopt PFZ:
Around 2.04 % of National GDP
 Catalytic roles by MS Swaminathan Research Foundation (MSSRF), Village
Resource Centres (VRC) and Village Knowledge Centre (VKC) in raising
awareness and facilitating the knowledge transfer
 The Key take-aways from the proactive role of INCOIS with the catalytic role of
the partnering agency MSSRF could be major milestones in the road map for the
progress

Executive Summary of a National survey by National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER)
 Fishermen’s Voice
 We are extremely dependent on PFZ for our livelihood
- Milind Sakhakar, Fishermen, Maharashtra
 The information passed by INCOIS was very accurate and useful
- Lishil, Fishermen, Kerala
 Motivated to buy and use gillnets to make use of the PFZ advisory to its full
potential
- Krishna Mallikarjuna, Fishermen, Kakinada
 Fishing in PFZ is more economical; the number of days we spend in the sea
has come down considerably and there is reduction in the diesel expenses too
- D. Tata Rao, Fishermen, SuryaraoPeta, E.G. Dist. AP.
 MSSRF-INCOIS Fisheries Helpline Service is a great boon to us
- Rajkumar, Nagoor Pattinacherry, Nagapattinam
 I am able to educate my sons it is mainly because of fishing through
gillnetting in PFZ
- Edukondalu, fishermen, Gilakaladindi, Andhra Pradesh

The PFZ information has given a new lease of life to the fishermen community
- Prof. M. S. Swaminathan, MSSRF, Chennai
 Partners / Service Providers:
M S Swaminathan Research Foundation
(MSSRF), Reliance Foundation, Handygo,
IKSL, RegPoint, Community Radios, AIR,
FM Radios.

EDB

Centers
FFMA
Web and Email

Village Information
Telephone / Fax

mKRISHI
SMS

User Community

IVRS
Dissemination Mechanisms

Voice Call

Helpline
Radio

Television
 Incois In-house Android App

•Available in Google Play Store

Registration

Welcome Screen
Download Map

Text
In-house SMS Templates
•Initiated from Mar 2015 in all Coastal
Languages

•Total 6033 sms delivered to 141 users

for 36 Landing centres.

•GUJ(03), MAH(09), KAR(05),KER(23),

TN(22), AP(52),ODS(11), WB(16)
FFMA Mobile app (MSSRF)
•Presently FFMA is operational in
Tamil, Telugu, Malayalam and
Odiya

•Under the Digital India

Programme it has been proposed to
Launch in all Coastal Languages

•Partners involved
• Content Partner INCOIS
• Development partners MSSRF
& Qualcomm
 ARCHITECTURE OF HELP LINE SERVICES (INCOIS-MSSRF)

Phone in Program
Generic Fisheries
(Once in every month)
related Queries
INCOIS Services Expert
Queries from Tsunami Early warning Consortium
Fisher folks Potential Fishing Zone
CAS
Ocean State Forecast
CMFRI

INCOIS Anna University

Fisheries Dep.
Centralized Help Line
Individual
(24x7) experts
Academic
Institutions

Tablet computing
Analysi PFZ – GIS
s Ocean State Forecast models INCOIS-MSSRF
Early Warning Knowledge Management
System

Andhra Pradesh – 7569059856, 75690

Tamil Nadu – 9282442311, 9282442312
 Electronic Display Boards

Total EDBs Installed: 99 +1 Planned

State-wise Installations Year-wise Installations

Ocean Portal

Single Window Solution

for
Ocean Information and
Advisory Services
 Dissemination Mechanisms

 Centralized Integrated Dissemination System features

◦ Multi Lingual SMS
◦ Voice Call / Audio Advisory
◦ Mobile Apps (User / Admin modules)
◦ Social Media
◦ Email
◦ GTS
◦ Fax
◦ Digital Display Boards with Satellite Connectivity and Solar
Panels (at 100 locations + 100 existing)
◦ Radio / Television broadcast units,
Access to Various
◦ IVRS, Stakeholders (NGOs,
◦ Cloud Channels State Fishery
Departments, Disaster
◦ etc. Management
Authorities, etc.
Thank you for your kind
attention