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Lesson 5 Planning and Decision Making 2

Strategic management involves formulating and implementing strategies to achieve organizational goals given internal and external conditions. It includes planning, organizing, leading and controlling functions. The strategic planning process consists of strategy formulation by analyzing opportunities/threats and strengths/weaknesses, implementation, and evaluation. Key tools for strategic planning include forecasting, contingency planning, scenario planning, benchmarking, break-even analysis, linear programming, and simulation models.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
406 views140 pages

Lesson 5 Planning and Decision Making 2

Strategic management involves formulating and implementing strategies to achieve organizational goals given internal and external conditions. It includes planning, organizing, leading and controlling functions. The strategic planning process consists of strategy formulation by analyzing opportunities/threats and strengths/weaknesses, implementation, and evaluation. Key tools for strategic planning include forecasting, contingency planning, scenario planning, benchmarking, break-even analysis, linear programming, and simulation models.

Uploaded by

Shunuan Huang
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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LESSON 5: PLANNING AND

DECISION MAKING 2
PLANNING AND DECISION MAKING 2

In today’s business world is quiet tough as trends and


preferences of customers are constantly changing. In
addition, rapidly growing of technology have greatest
impact to changes aligning of the business strategies.
An underlying theme of discussing strategic
management or the tools and techniques of business
planning can lead to high organizational performance.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Strategic Management
- is the process through which managers formulate
and implement strategies geared to optimizing goal
achievement, given available environmental and
internal conditions.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Strategic Management
- set of managerial decisions and actions that
determines the long-run performance of an
organization. It entails all of the basic management
function-planning, organizing, leading, and
controlling.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Purpose of Strategic management


• exploit and create new and different opportunities
for tomorrow;
• long-range planning, in contrast, tries to optimize for
tomorrow the trends of today.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Strategic Management is important to


organizations because it
1. Helps organizations identify and develop a
competitive advantage, a significant edge over the
competition in dealing with competitive forces.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Strategic Management is important to


organizations because it
2. Provides a sense of direction so that organization
members know where to expend their efforts.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Strategy
The determination of the mission or purpose and the
basic long-term objectives of an enterprise, followed
by the adoption of courses of action and allocation of
resources necessary to achieve these aims.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Strategic Planning Process


Stages in planning process:
1. Strategy Formulation
2. Strategy implementation
3. Strategy evaluation
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Strategic Planning Process


Strategy Formulation includes:
• developing a vision and mission,
• identifying an organization’s external
opportunities and threats,
• determining internal strengths and weaknesses,
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Strategic Planning Process


Strategy Formulation includes:
• establishing long-term objectives,
• generating alternative strengths,
• choosing particular strategies to pursue.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Strategic Planning Process


Strategy Implementation requires the firm to
establish annual objectives, devise policies, motivate
employees, and allocate resources so that formulate
strategies can be executed. These are:
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Strategic Planning Process


Strategy Implementation
• developing a strategy-supportive culture,
• creating an effective organizational structure
• redirecting marketing efforts,
• preparing budgets,
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Strategic Planning Process


Strategy Implementation
• developing and utilizing information systems,
• linking employee compensation to organizational
performance.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Strategic Planning Process


Strategy Evaluation is the final stage in strategic
planning. Managers need to know when particular
strategies are not working well, strategy evaluation
is the primary means for obtaining this information.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Strategic Planning Process


Strategy Evaluation
Three fundamental strategy evaluation activities are
constantly changing:
1. reviewing external and internal factors that the
bases for current strategies,
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Strategic Planning Process


Strategy Evaluation
Three fundamental strategy evaluation activities are
constantly changing:
2. measuring performance
3. taking corrective actions.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Strategic Planning Process


Strategy Evaluation
Strategic evaluation is needed because success today
is no guarantee of success tomorrow.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Strategic Planning Process


Strategy Evaluation
Strategic planning is a process undertaken by an
organization to develop a plan for achievement of its
overall long-term organizational goal.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Strategic Planning Process


A. Mission and Objectives
• Every organization needs a mission, which defines
the purpose of the organization. What is the
organization’s reason for being in business?
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Strategic Planning Process


A. Mission and Objectives
• It’s also important to identify the organization’s
current objectives and strategies as well.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Strategic Planning Process


B. Environmental Scanning
• It is important to analyze the environment because,
it defines management’s strategic option.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Strategic Planning Process


B. Environmental Scanning
• The environmental scanning includes the following
components:
o Internal analysis of the firm
o Analysis of the firm’s industry (task environment)
o External macro environment (PEST analysis)
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Strategic Planning Process


C. Strategy Formulation
• Given from the environmental scan, the firm
should match its strengths to the opportunities that
it has identified, while addressing it weaknesses
and external threats.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Strategic Planning Process


C. Strategy Formulation
• To attain superior profitability, the firm seeks to
develop a competitive advantage over its rivals.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Strategic Planning Process


C. Strategy Formulation
• A competitive advantage can be based on cost or
differentiation (or formulating strategy such as
(Michael Porter’s Strategy)
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Strategic Planning Process


D. Strategy Implementation
• The selected strategy is implemented by means of
programs, budgets, and procedures.
• Implementation involves organization of the firm’s
resources and motivation of the staff to achieve
objectives.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Strategic Planning Process


E. Evaluation & Control
The implementation of the strategy must be monitored
and adjustments made as needed. Evaluation and
Control consists of the following steps:
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Strategic Planning Process


E. Evaluation & Control
Evaluation and control consists of the following steps:
1. Define parameters to be measured
2. Define target values for those parameters
3. Perform measurements
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Strategic Planning Process


E. Evaluation & Control
Evaluation and control consists of the following steps:
4. Compare measured results to the pre-defined
standards
5. Make necessary changes.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Major Planning Tools and Techniques


The planning tools and techniques that managers use
are identified and described below:
A. FORECASTING: is the process of developing
assumptions about the future that relevant to the
predicted level of certain planning variables (i.e.,
company future sales).
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Major Planning Tools and Techniques


A. FORECASTING:
• Qualitative forecasting uses expert opinions.
• Quantitative forecasting uses mathematical and
statistical analysis.
• All forecast rely on judgment.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Major Planning Tools and Techniques


A. FORECASTING:
• Planning involves deciding on how to deal with the
implications of a forecast.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Major Planning Tools and Techniques


B. CONTINGENCY PLANNING: involves
identifying alternative courses of action that can be
implemented, if and when an original plan proves
inadequate because of changing circumstances.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Major Planning Tools and Techniques


B. CONTINGENCY PLANNING:
• Contingency plans anticipate changing conditions.
• Contingency plans contains trigger points.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Major Planning Tools and Techniques


C. SCENARIO PLANNING: is a long-term version
of contingency planning that involves identifying
several alternative future scenarios or states of affairs
that may occur, and then making plans to deal with
each scenario should it actually occur.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Major Planning Tools and Techniques


C. SCENARIO PLANNING:
• Plans made for each future scenario. Increases
organization’s flexibility and preparation for future
shocks.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Major Planning Tools and Techniques


D. BENCHMARKING: is a technique that makes use
of internal and external comparisons to better evaluate
current performance and identify possible actions to
improve the future. Adopting best practices of other
organizations that achieve superior performance.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Major Planning Tools and Techniques


E. BRAK-EVEN ANALYSIS: this is one of the most
widely used planning tools in business. The technique
can be used for analyzing the effect on profits of
different pricing strategies or different alternatives in
incurring costs.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Major Planning Tools and Techniques


F. LINEAR PROGRAMMING: is a quantitative tools
for determining the optimal combination of resources
and activities. It can be used for production
scheduling, allocation of marketing personnel to
territories or allocation of production inputs to
produce an item at minimum cost.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Major Planning Tools and Techniques


G. SIMULATION MODEL: are mathematical
representations of some aspect of a business operation.
Simulation models are used when the planning
variables, as well as their interrelationships, are so
numerous and complex that it is difficult to
analytically assess the net effect of a change in one or
a number of the variables involved.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Major Planning Tools and Techniques


G. SIMULATION MODEL: Simulation is useful in
complex situations such as predicting product demand
considering the effect of changes in the pricing
policies of competitors, or the effect of a change in
foreign exchange rate on company profits considering
changes in minimum wage and inflation rates.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Major Planning Tools and Techniques


H. STAFF PLANNERS: are persons who take
responsibility for leading and coordinating the
planning function for the total organization or one of
its major components.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Major Planning Tools and Techniques


H. STAFF PLANNERS:
Staff planners responsibilities include:
• Assisting line managers in preparing plans.
• Developing special plans.
• Gathering and maintaining planning information.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Major Planning Tools and Techniques


H. STAFF PLANNERS:
Staff planners responsibilities include:
• Assisting in communicating plans.
• Monitoring plans in progress and suggesting
changes.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Participation and Involvement


Participatory planning requires that the planning
process include people who will be affected by the
plans and / or will help implement them.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Participation and Involvement


Benefits of participation and involvement:
• Promotes creativity in planning.
• Increases available information.
• Fosters understanding, acceptance, and
commitment to the final plan.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Management by Objectives (MBO)


• MBO was first described by Peter Drucker and
consists of four elements:
o Goal specify
o Participative decision making
o Explicit time period
o Performance feedback
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Management by Objectives (MBO)


• MBO makes objectives operational through the
process by which they cascade down through the
organization
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Management by Objectives (MBO)


Strengths of MBO
1. Aids coordination of goals and plans
2. Helps clarify priorities and expectations
3. Facilitates vertical and horizontal
communications
4. Fosters employee motivation
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Management by Objectives (MBO)


Weaknesses of MBO
1. Tends to falter without strong continual
commitment from top management.
2. Necessities considerable training of managers
3. Can be misused as a punitive device.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Management by Objectives (MBO)


Weaknesses of MBO
4. May cause overemphasis of quantitative goals.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Management by Objectives (MBO)


MBO Process
1. Superior communicate to subordinate the higher
organizational goals and the expected
subordinate accomplishments;
2. Superior discuss with subordinate
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Management by Objectives (MBO)


MBO Process
3. Subordinates goals and both parties should agree
on a set of objectives.
4. Resources required to attain goals
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Management by Objectives (MBO)


MBO Process
5. Periodic reviews should be conducted to monitor
performance and to discuss reasons for deviations of
actual performance from targets.
6. Manager or superior discusses evaluation of
subordinate the reward given or punishment.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Decision making
The selection of a course of action from among
alternatives.
• Decision making is the core of planning. A plan
cannot be said to exist unless a decision-a
commitment of resources, direction, or reputation-
has been made.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Decision making
The selection of a course of action from among
alternatives.
• In decision making process managers respond to
opportunities and threats by analyzing options, and
making decisions about goals and courses of action.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Decision making
Decisions in response to opportunities:
Managers respond to ways to improve organizational
performance.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Decision making
Decisions in response to threats:
Occurs when managers are impacted by adverse
events to the organization.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Types of Decision Making


Programmed (structured) Decision
• These decisions are made by operational managers.
• Used for structured or routine work.
• Managers have made decision many times before.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Types of Decision Making


Programmed (structured) Decision
• There are rules or guidelines to follow.
• It involves operational issues and has a very short
time effect.
Example: Deciding to reorder office supplies
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Types of Decision Making


Non-Programmed (Unstructured) Decision
• The decision are made by senior management.
• Used for unstructured, novel, and ill-defined
situations of a nonrecurring nature. It is a non
routine type decision
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Types of Decision Making


Non-Programmed (Unstructured) Decision
• No rules to follow since the decision is new.
• These decisions are made based on information, and
a manager’s intuition, and judgment.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Types of Decision Making


Non-Programmed (Unstructured) Decision
• It includes strategic issues and long term effect of
decision.
Example: should the firm invest in a new technology?
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Types of Decision Making


Semi-Programmed (Semi-Structured) Decision
• Decisions are made by middle management.
• It is both routine and non routine type decisions.
• Usually it gives a clear cut solution of a problem.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Types of Decision Making


Semi-Programmed (Semi-Structured) Decision
• There is both structured and unstructured procedure
for decision making.
Example: Allocate resources to managers; develop a
marketing plan.
DECISION MAKING PROCESS STEPS
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Decision Making Process Steps


1. Recognize need for a decision:
Managers must first realize the need for which a
decision must be made.
2. Frame the problem:
Managers must frame problem for which decision is
to be made.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Decision Making Process Steps


3. Generate & assess alternatives
Generate alternatives: managers must develop feasible
alternative courses of action.
• If good alternatives are missed, the resulting
decision is poor.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Decision Making Process Steps


3. Generate & assess alternatives
Generate alternatives: managers must develop feasible
alternative courses of action.
• It is hard to develop creative alternatives, so
managers need to look for new ideas.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Decision Making Process Steps


3. Generate & assess alternatives
Generate alternatives: managers must develop feasible
alternative courses of action.
Evaluate alternatives: what are the advantages and
disadvantages of each alternatives?
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Decision Making Process Steps


3. Generate & assess alternatives
Generate alternatives: managers must develop feasible
alternative courses of action.
• Managers should specify criteria, then evaluate.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Decision Making Process Steps


4. Choose among alternatives
Managers rank alternatives and decides.
While ranking, all information needs to be considered.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Decision Making Process Steps


5. Implement chosen alternative
Managers must now carry out alternative.
• Often a decision is made and not implemented.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Decision Making Process Steps


6. Learn from feedback
Managers should consider what went right and wrong
with the decision and learn for the future.
• Without feedback, managers never learn from
experience and might repeat the same mistake.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Is it legal? Managers must first be sure that an


alternative is legal both in this country and abroad for
exports.
Is it ethical? The alternative must be ethical and not
hurt stakeholders unnecessarily.
Is it economically feasible? Can our organization’s
performance goals sustain this alternative?
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Is it practical? Does the management have the


capabilities and resources to do it?
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Cognitive Biases
- Suggest decision makers use heuristics to deal with
bounded rationality.
• A heuristic is a rule o thumb to deal with complex
situations.
• If the heuristic is wrong, however, then poor
decisions result from its use
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Cognitive Biases
Sometimes when there seem to be too many
alternatives to choose from, managers rely on their
own decision rules. These decision rules are called
heuristics, and they allow complex judgments to be
made more simply. Because of these heuristics,
decisions may vary with the characteristics or biases
of the decision maker.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Cognitive Biases
Individual biases are product of each decision maker’s
cognitive structures and are necessary to prevent
decision makers from becoming paralyzed when
analysing extensive data. The values and cognitive
biases of the organization’s top managers are seem in
the organization’s strategies and effectiveness.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Cognitive Biases
Systematic errors can result from use of an incorrect
heuristic.
• These errors will appear over and over since the
rule used to make decision is flawed.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Types of Cognitive Biases


STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Types of Cognitive Biases


• Prior hypothesis bias: manager allows strong prior
beliefs about a relationship between variables and
makes decisions based on these beliefs even when
evidence shows they are wrong.
• Representatives: decision maker incorrectly
generalizes a decision from a small sample or one
incident
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Types of Cognitive Biases


• Illusion of control: manager over-estimates their
ability to control events.
• Escalating commitment: manager has already
committed considerable resource to project and then
commits more even after indicates problems.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Three Approaches for Selecting and Alternative


When selecting from among alternatives, managers
can use three basic approaches:
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Three Approaches for Selecting and Alternative


1. Experience
Reliance on past experience probably plays a larger
part than it deserves in decision making. Experienced
managers usually believe, often without realizing it,
that the things they have successfully accomplished
and the mistakes they have made serve as almost
infallible guides to the future.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Three Approaches for Selecting and Alternative


1. Experience
This attitude is likely to be more pronounced the more
experience a manger has had and the higher he or she
has risen in all organization.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Three Approaches for Selecting and Alternative


1. Experience
Relying on past experience as a guide for future action
can be dangerous. In the first place, most people do not
recognize the underlying reasons for their mistakes or
failures. In the second place, the lessons of experience
may be entirely inapplicable to new problems. Good
decisions must be valuated against future events, while
experience belongs to the past.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Three Approaches for Selecting and Alternative


1. Experience
On the other hand, if a person carefully analyses
experience, rather than blindly following it, and if he
or she distils from experience the fundamental reasons
for success or failure, then experience can be useful as
a basis for decision analysis.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Three Approaches for Selecting and Alternative


1. Experience
A successful program, a well-managed company, a
profitable product promotion, or any other decision that
turns out well may furnish useful data for such
distillation. Just as scientists do not hesitate to build upon
the research of others and would be foolish indeed
merely to duplicate it, managers can learn much from
others.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Three Approaches for Selecting and Alternative


2. Experimentation
An obvious way to decide among alternatives is to try
one of them and see what happens. Experimentation is
often used in scientific inquiry. People often argue that it
should be employed more often in managing and that the
only way a manager can make sure some plans are right –
especially in view of the intangible factors – is to try the
various alternatives and see which is best.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Three Approaches for Selecting and Alternative


2. Experimentation
The experimental technique is likely to be the most
expensive of all techniques, especially if a program
requires heavy expenditures of capital and personnel
and if the firm cannot afford to vigorously attempt
several alternatives.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Three Approaches for Selecting and Alternative


2. Experimentation
Besides, after an experiment has been tried, there may
still be doubt about what it proved, since the future
may not duplicate the present. This technique,
therefore, should be used only after considering other
alternatives.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Three Approaches for Selecting and Alternative


2. Experimentation
On the other hand, there are many decisions that cannot
be made until the best course of action can be
ascertained by experiment. Even reflections on
experience or the most careful research may not assure
managers of correct decisions. This is nowhere better
illustrated than in the planning of a new airplane.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Three Approaches for Selecting and Alternative


2. Experimentation
An airplane manufacturer may draw from personal
experience and that of other plane manufacturers and
new plane users. Engineers and economists may make
extensive studies of stress, vibration, fuel
consumption, speed, space allocation, and other
factors.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Three Approaches for Selecting and Alternative


2. Experimentation
But all these studies do not answer every question
about the flight characteristics and economics of a
successful plane; therefore, some experiments is
almost always involved in the process of selecting the
right course to follow.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Three Approaches for Selecting and Alternative


2. Experimentation
Ordinarily, a first-production, or prototype, airplane is
constructed and tested; and on the basis of these tests
production airplanes are made according to a
somewhat revised design.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Three Approaches for Selecting and Alternative


2. Experimentation
Experimentation is used in other ways. A firm may test a
new product in a certain market before expanding its sale
nationwide. Organizational techniques are often tried in a
branch office or plant before being applied over an entire
company. Candidate for a management job may be tested
in the job during the incumbent’s vacation.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Three Approaches for Selecting and Alternative


3. Research and analysis
One of the most effective techniques for selecting
from alternatives when major decision are involved is
research and analysis. This approach means solving a
problem by first comprehending it.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Three Approaches for Selecting and Alternative


3. Research and analysis
It thus involves a search for relationships among the
more critical of the variables, constraints, and
premises that bear upon the goal sought. It is the
pencil-an-paper (or, better, the computer-and-printout)
approach to decision making.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Three Approaches for Selecting and Alternative


3. Research and analysis
Solving a planning problem requires breaking it into
its component parts and studying the various
quantitative and qualitative factors. Study and analysis
is likely to be far cheaper than experimentation.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Three Approaches for Selecting and Alternative


3. Research and analysis
The hours of time and reams of paper used for
analyses usually cost much less than trying the
various alternatives. In manufacturing airplanes, for
example, if careful research did not precede the
building and testing of the prototype airplane and its
parts, the resulting costs would be enormous.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Three Approaches for Selecting and Alternative


3. Research and analysis
A major step in the research-and-analysis approach is
to develop a model simulating the problem. Thus,
architects often make models of buildings in the form
of extensive blueprints or three-dimensional
renditions.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Three Approaches for Selecting and Alternative


3. Research and analysis
Engineers test models of airplane wings and missiles
in a wind tunnel. But the most useful simulation is
likely to be a representation of the variables in a
problem situation by mathematical terms and
relationships.
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Three Approaches for Selecting and Alternative


3. Research and analysis
Conceptualizing a problem is a major step toward its
solution. The physical sciences have long elide on
mathematical models to do this.
DECISION MAKING CONDITIONS

Decision Making under Certainty:


• Exact and complete information of the consequence
of every decision option.
• Decision maker knows alternatives and their
outcomes well.
DECISION MAKING CONDITIONS

Decision Making under Risk:


• Available alternatives and their consequences are
known but risky.
• Alternatives are assessed by calculating the expected
probability value of their outcomes. The outcome
with the maximum payoff is selected.
DECISION MAKING CONDITIONS

Decision Making under Uncertainty:


• Decision making is not aware of the risks or
outcomes of the decision alternatives.
• Decision making can use Max-Min or Max-Max
criterion.
DECISION MAKING CONDITIONS

All intelligent decision makers dealing with


uncertainty like to know the degree and nature of the
risk they are taking in choosing a course of action.
One of the deficiencies in using the traditional
approaches of operations research for problem solving
is that many of the data used in a model are merely
estimates and others are based on probabilities.
DECISION MAKING CONDITIONS

The ordinary practice is to have staff specialists come


up with “best estimates.” Virtually every decision is
based on the interaction of a number of important
variables, many of which have an element of
uncertainty but, perhaps, a fairly high degree of
probability.
DECISION MAKING CONDITIONS

Thus, the wisdom of launching a new product might


depend on a number of critical variables: the cost of
introducing the product, the cost of producing it, the
capital investment that will be required, the price that
can be set for the product, the size of the potential
market, and the share of the total market that it will
represent.
DECISION MAKING CONDITIONS

Creativity and Innovation


• Creativity refers to the ability and power to develop
new ideas.
• Innovation, on the other hand, usually means the
use of these ideas.
DECISION MAKING CONDITIONS

Creativity and Innovation


An important factor in managing people is creativity.
A distinction can be made between creativity and
innovation. The term creativity usually refers to the
ability and power to develop new ideas.
DECISION MAKING CONDITIONS

Creativity and Innovation


Innovation, on the other hand, usually means the use
of these ideas. In an organization, this can mean a new
product, a new service, or a new way of doing things.
Although this discussion centers on the creative
process, it is implied that organizations not only
generate new ideas but also translate them into
practical applications.
DECISION MAKING CONDITIONS

The Creative Process


The creative process is seldom simple and linear.
Instead, generally it consists of four overlapping and
interacting phases:
DECISION MAKING CONDITIONS

The Creative Process


(1) Unconscious scanning,
The first phrase, unconscious scanning is difficult to
explain because it is beyond consciousness. This
scanning usually requires an absorption in the problem,
which may be vague in the mind. Yet managers working
under time constraints often make decisions prematurely
rather than dealing thoroughly with ambiguous, ill-
defined problems.
DECISION MAKING CONDITIONS

The Creative Process


(2) intuition,
The second phase, intuition, connects the unconscious with
the conscious. This stage may involve a combination of
factors that may seem contradictory at first. Intuition needs
time to work. It requires that people find new combinations
and integrate diverse concepts and ideas. Thus, one must
think through the problem. Intuitive thinking is promoted by
several techniques, such as brainstorming.
DECISION MAKING CONDITIONS

The Creative Process


(3) insight, and
Insight, the third phase of the creative process, is mostly
the result of hard work. For example, many ideas are
needed in the development of a usable product, a new
service, or a new process. What is interesting is that
insight may come at times when the thoughts are not
directly focused on the problem at hand.
DECISION MAKING CONDITIONS

The Creative Process


(3) insight, and
Moreover, new insights may last for only a few
minutes, and effective manager may benefit from
having paper and pencil ready to make notes of their
creative ideas.
DECISION MAKING CONDITIONS

The Creative Process


(4) Logical formulation.
The last phase in the creative process is logical
formulation or verification. Insight needs to be tested
through logic or experiment. This may be accomplished
by continuing to work on an idea or by inviting critiques
from others. Brown and Sloan’s idea of decentralization,
for example, needed to be tested against organizational
reality.
DECISION MAKING CONDITIONS

Building Group Creativity


There are different techniques for building group
creativity:
Brainstorming: managers must face-to-face to
generate and debate many alternatives.
• Group members are not allowed to evaluate
alternatives until all alternatives are listed.
DECISION MAKING CONDITIONS

Building Group Creativity


Brainstorming
• Be creative and radical in stating alternatives.
• When all are listed, then the pros and cons of each
are discussed and a short list created.
DECISION MAKING CONDITIONS

Building Group Creativity


Nominal group technique: provides a more
structured way to generate alternatives in writing.
• Avoids the production blocking problem.
• Similar to brainstorming except that each member is
given time to first write down all alternatives he or
she would suggest.
DECISION MAKING CONDITIONS

Building Group Creativity


Nominal group technique
• Alternatives are then read aloud without discussion
until all have been listed.
• Then discussion occurs and alternatives are ranked.
DECISION MAKING CONDITIONS

Building Group Creativity


Delphi technique: provides for a written format
without having all managers meet face-to-face.
• Problem is distributed in written form to managers
who then generate written alternatives.
• Responses are received and summarized by top
managers.
DECISION MAKING CONDITIONS

Building Group Creativity


Delphi technique: provides for a written format
without having all managers meet face-to-face.
• These results are sent back to participants for
feedback, and ranking.
• The process continues until consensus is reached.
Delphi technique allow instant managers to
participate.
1. Contingency plans anticipate changing conditions.
Answer: True
2. Programmed decisions are more likely to occur at
the top management level.
Answer: False
3. Programmed and structured are the two
classifications of management decisions.
Answer: False
4. A company decision to diversify into new products
and markets is an example of non-programmed
decisions.
Answer: False
5. A major advantage of the Delphi technique over
other group decision-making techniques is that bias
effects of group interactions are eliminated.
Answer: True
6. A decision-making process is a series or chain or
related steps or interconnected stages that lead to an
action or to an outcome and assessment.
Answer: True
7. The main difference between risk and uncertainty is
that with risk you know the probabilities of the
outcomes.
Answer: True
8. Programmed decisions are decisions that are made for
situations that have occurred often in the past and allow
decision rules to be developed to guide future decisions.
Answer: True
9. The overall process of decision making in, for
example, staff selection includes which of these
stages?
Answer: All of the given options
10. Non programmed decisions are most likely to be
made by:
Answer: Top management
11. A manager who is helping a customer return some
shoes they purchased last week is dealing with what
type of decision?
Answer: Programmed decision
12. SWOT is an acronym for:
Answer: Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats.
13. Problems are usually of the following type(s):
Answer: All of the given options.
14. Which of the following is not an advantage of
group decision-making?
Answer: group think
15. The final phase of the decision-making process is:
Answer: Evaluating decision effectiveness.
16. Decisions fall into two categories:
Answer: Programmed and non-programmed
17. The selection of a course of action from among
alternatives.
Answer: Decision making
18. A solution to a problem that is arrived at through
an unstructured process of decision making is called
a:
Answer: Non-programmed decision
19. A process in which a group of individuals generate
and state ideas, but in which the rules prohibit
questioning, evaluating, or rejecting any ideas, even if
they seem ridiculous is called: Answer: Brainstorming
20. ___ allows distant managers to participate in
group creativity.
Answer: Delphi technique
21. It is the core of planning.
Answer: Decision making
22. A programmed decision is:
Answer: A repetitive decision that can be handled by a
routine approach.
23. 23. It is the ability of the decision maker to
discover novel ideas leading to a feasible course of
action.
Answer: creativity

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