• Concept of security in 21st Century

• Power: Balance of Power, Elements of National Power.

• Foreign Policy: Determinants, decision making and
analysis
• National Interest & Sovereignty
 Think ….!

1.Today If India diverts the flow of our water?

2.If enemies of Pakistan sabotage CPEC?
3.If Gwadar becomes a failure because of Chabahar ?
4.If our society is polarized on sectarian and ethnic
lines?
5.If someone hacks NASA, NADRA sites?
6.If there is frequent military coups in a country?
 Old concept of Security …

 “A nation is secure if it is not in danger of having to sacrifice

core values. And is able to maintain them by victory in such
wars”.
Walter Lippmann

 “Security is absence of threat”. Arnold Wolfers

 Security in contemporary era …

 “Security is about the ability of state and society to maintain

its independence, identity and functional integrity”.
Barry Buzan
Concept of Security

Traditional Concept of Security

 Military Security against threats from other countries.
Non-traditional concept of Security
 This concept of security is expansion from Military to
political, economic, societal, environmental, security.
 It is security against the soft threats.
 New Threats and threat perception

 Conflicts, and revolutions are new threats.

 1973 oil crisis highlighted the prominence of economic security.
 Growing signs of environmental degradation, such as air
pollution, acid rain, and deforestation are environmental
threats.
 Rapid climate change may lead to floods, famine, draught, food
insecurity etc.
 SARS, Bird flu, Ebola, Mad cow, Swine flu, and Zika virus.
 New Threats and threat perception

 Rise of NSAs, 9/11 dramatically changed security thinking of

the world.

 Failed States, Bali Bombing, 7/7, Madrid Attacks, Paris Attacks,

Mehran Base attacks, GHQ attacks, IPS Peshawar, Sehvan
Shareef attack and many more.
 5 Sectors of security by Barry Buzan

Societal Security
 Societal insecurity exists when a society defines a development
as a threat to its existence.

 Example, Refugees as threat to Pakistan, Jordan, Turkey, Iran,

and Germany.
 Ethnic disharmony is a threat in multi-ethnic societies like
Pakistan, SL, Afghanistan and India.

 Changing dynamics of demography is also a threat to a

community – it can change a majority community to a minority.
 Political Security
 Security is – when state sovereignty is not challenged.

 There should be no state with in a state.

 Successful power transfer from one govt. to other.

 Security against negative political transformation.... India can

loose secularism to Hinduism, US internationalism into white race
American nationalism.
 Economic Security
 The main objective of economic security is to develop rules
that generate revenue for state sustenance.

 Policies must have compatibility with regional and global

economic rules – WTO, free market economy etc.

 Example: US military power is not the cause of US super

power status it is consequence of its economy.
 Military Security
 Having state of the art weapons & technology, sound
training of the military forces with sufficient number.
Environment Security
Guarding against;
 Environment degradation, draught, famines, Food shortage,
Land erosion, floods, Rains, earthquakes, tsunamis, etc.
 Environment weapons have been developed by many
countries , HAARP technologies.
Power: Elements of
National Power
 Power

 “Often defined as the ability to get another actor to do what it

would not otherwise have done.”

 “Ability to influence other” Joseph Nye

 “Power is the ability to influence the behaviour of others to get

a desired outcome”
 Types of Power
 Hard power = military power, war, use of force, threat of use
of force.

 Soft power is the ability to attract people to your side without

using force, Joseph Nye

 Smart Power combination of both (hard & Soft)

proportionally. USA uses smart power vis-à-vis Pak.
National Power

“The combination of power and capability of a state that it uses

for achieving its national interests and goals”.
Padelford & Lincoln
 The logic of power suggests;

 The more powerful states mostly prevail.

 Power predicts the outcome, e.g. Russia & Ukraine.

 GDP does not always predict who will win the war.
Elements of National Power

Tangible elements of National Power

1. GDP
2. Geography
1. Topography 2. Climate 3. Location
3. Population and man power
4. Resources 
(Natural)
1.Coal 2. Iron 3. Oil 4. Gas 5. Water
 Human Resources;
1.Capital 2. Technology 3. Labour 4. Food

5. Industrial and Agricultural output

6. Military Apparatus; 
2. Numerical strength
3. State of the Art technology
4. War fighting Capability and will to fight
 Intangible Elements of National Power
 Political and Economic System

 Scientific and Technological Base & Education

 National Morals

 National Character; Religious, aggressive, progressive,

democratic, or corrupt.
 Leadership (strong, charismatic, visionary, timid, self-interested)

 International standing/position

 Internal Cohesion (Ethnic, social, religious harmony)

 Bureaucratic & diplomatic efficiency

 Popular support for the government

Balance of Power

“An even distribution of power”.

 “The equilibrium of the power among states in such a way that

no state has dominance over other”.
 Balance of Power
How Balancing is done?
Either by diminishing the weight of the heavier state or by
increasing the weight of the lighter one.
(1) Divide and Rule
 For this purpose third party is necessary that may exercise its
authority with force.
 Employed by nations who want to keep the competitor weak,
e .g. UK, France, Russia with Germany and Ottomans after
WWI & WWII.
 (2) Compensation
 Compensation in territorial currency 18th 19th century
phenomenon. Congress of Vienna 1815.
 Fertility of soil, number of quality of population are the objective
standards.
(3) Armaments/Disarmament
 The purpose of armament of a nation is to keep up A by keeping
nation B down.
 For both a quantitative evaluation (arms) is required.
 (4) Alliances
 Nation A and B competing with each other have three choices in
order to maintain their relative power;

 They can increase their own power. (armament)

 They can add to their own power with the power of other nations.
(Alliance)

 They can withhold the power of other nations from the adversary.
(Alliance)
 

On which basis alliance are formed?

 Ideological Bases Arab League Vs. Israel.

 Distribution of Interests/benefits states equals in

power and equal in resources make alliance for equal
incentives. NATO Vs. USSR.
 Alliances vs Counter-alliances
Before WWI
 Triple alliance (Austria, Germany and Italy)
VS
 Triple Entete (France , Russia, and Great Britain)
During WWII
 Axis Power (Germany, Italy, and Japan)
VS
 Allied Powers (Britain, France, USA, and USSR)
NTAO Vs. Warsaw pact
 (5) Intervention

 Russian intervention in Georgia 2008 & Ukraine.

 Indian intervention in East Pakistan 1971

 (6) Buffer States
 A buffer state is a small or weak state laying between two rival
great powers.
 It prevents conflict between them.
 A buffer state is a mutually agreed upon area.

Poland between USSR and Germany

Afghanistan between Britain and USSR
 The “Balancer” (who holds balance)

 The balancer occupies the key position in the BOP system,

since its position determines the outcome of the competition
of the power.
 It decides who will win or lose?
 Which country can be a balancer B/W;
1. India and China?
2. China and US?
3. Iran and Saudi Arabia?
 Assessment of BOP concept:

 Uncertainty of BOP…Because power and threat cannot be

measured accurately.

 BOP as Ideology …acts as mechanism for self-defence against

the potential aggressor.
 Imperial countries always use this excuse to prevent the
emergence of a competitor.
Example
US vs Germany and USSR and now vs China.
 BOP as a situation … it arises with relationship of states –
Iran/India/Afghanistan & Pakistan.

 BOP as system …. is not between states or blocks but it is

within a system – any state that becomes powerful is
countered. India by Pak, China by US, Israel by Iran, and Iran
by SA.
Foreign Policy: Determinants, decision
making and analysis
 Foreign Policy

“Strategies that governments use to guide their actions in

the international arena, the actions state leaders decide to
pursue and protect national interest in given situations.”

 FP is designed to protect and promote the national

interest abroad.
Purpose of the foreign Policy

Promote a nation’s
1. Security
2. Stability
3. Prosperity
regionally and globally
 Stages in foreign policy decision making

 1Assessment of the international and domestic political

environment.
 2 Goal setting.
 3 Determination of policy options.
 4 Formal decision making process.
 5 Implementation of chosen policy option.
Objectives of FP
Short term, Middle term, Long term
 Determinants of Foreign Policy

External Factors;
 Power structure (small, middle, great power)
 Standing in International Organizations (importance in int.
institutions, pol, econ, military/defence)
 Geographic Location
 Reaction of other States Iraq vs. Kuwait & US intervention 1991,
Pakistan in Afghanistan in 1979.
 World public opinion/Public Perception
 Alliances
 Internal Factors;

 History

 Size and Geography

 Natural Resources

 Economic/industrial development
 Military Power

 Population

 Good Governance and Leadership

 Quality of Diplomacy

 Role of Media and Think Tanks

Graham Allison’s three models of
Foreign Policy Decision Making;
1- Rational Actor Model

“Decision maker set goals,

Evaluate their relative importance,

Calculate the cost and benefits for each possible course of action,

Choose the one with highest benefits and lowest cost”.

Rationality demands, Cost benefit Analysis
 Merits of RAM.
 Useful when no or little information about the enemy is
available.
 Useful in crisis situation – little time for discussions
Demerits of RAM.
 Clash of interests,
 Tensions amongst Bureaucratic Agencies (govt institutions).
 

2 - Organizational Process Model (OPM)

 Shows the pressures that organizations place on decision
Maker’s choices.
 Assumes goals + objectives are already established
 Limits choices with Decision Makers based on SOPs …...
 SOPs enhance efficiency.
 Merits of OPM
 Decision makers respond based on the SOPs.
 Highlights the domestic political influences and domestic forces
on FP..
 FP making is a relationship among other government institutions.
 Lobbyists’ influence is incorporated – corporate sector/religious
groups/military etc.
Demerits of OPM
 Time consuming.
 Gives little options to the rulers.
(3) Bureaucratic Model/ Govt. Bargaining Model.

 Key individuals in critical positions have great influence.

 They have different priorities.

 They have different organizational positions and commitments:

 Merits of BM
 Helps explain why individuals are at times working for their
self interest.
 Therefore, explains why policy sometimes looks irrational.
Demerits of BM
 At times state interest is undermined and personal interest
prevail.
 National Interest
 National Interest is a country's goals and ambitions
whether economic, military, or cultural.
 The most important national interest is the survival of the
state.
 Security, Stability, Prosperity are the cherished national
interest of every nation

“Political traditions and political cultural context with

in which a nation formulates its foreign policy”.
H. J. Morgenthau
 Types of National Interests

 Primary: physical (territorial integrity), cultural identity,

guarding against external aggression.
 Secondary: protection of diaspora living abroad, diplomatic
immunities abroad etc.
 General: in the field of trade, diplomacy and international law.
 Variable: that keep on changing, it may be primary or
secondary.
 Permanent: that can uphold their permanence.
 Sovereignty

 Sovereignty: A government has the right, in principle, to do

whatever it wants in its own territory.

 The principle of supreme authority within a territory

 In modern times, sovereignty is almost inextricably bound with

territoriality.
 Internal. External
 It is indivisible, absolute, permanent, and cannot be
transferred – “Rousseau”
 For Liberals sovereignty is defined in terms of the
state’s ability to control activities within and across its
borders.
 For realists the essence of sovereignty is the state’s
ability to make authoritative decisions the decision to
make wars.
 Questions for Probing

 Foreign Policy decision making is a complex process,

which decision making model is followed in Pakistan
and why?

 What are the determinants of foreign Policy of

Pakistan?

 Suggest steps for Pakistan to keep the Balance of Power

in South Asia vis-à-vis India.