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Risk Analysis Using Cognitive Mapping

This document discusses using cognitive mapping for risk management in project management. It provides an overview of uncertainty in projects and reviews common risk analysis methods. It then introduces cognitive mapping as a qualitative risk analysis method using a case study exploring risks of different website design approaches. The document concludes with opportunities for future research, such as implementing workshops to construct cognitive maps and adding probability weights to compare risk levels.

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goldaword
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31 views

Risk Analysis Using Cognitive Mapping

This document discusses using cognitive mapping for risk management in project management. It provides an overview of uncertainty in projects and reviews common risk analysis methods. It then introduces cognitive mapping as a qualitative risk analysis method using a case study exploring risks of different website design approaches. The document concludes with opportunities for future research, such as implementing workshops to construct cognitive maps and adding probability weights to compare risk levels.

Uploaded by

goldaword
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Exploring

ExploringThe
TheUse
Useof
ofCognitive
Cognitive
Mapping
MappingForForManagement
Managementof
ofRisk
Risk

G W Komanapalli PhD

G A Bell PhD
An Overview
 Uncertainty in Project Management
 Measuring Risk and Uncertainty in Projects
 A Review of Risk Analysis Methods
 Systems Approach to Risk Analysis
 Risk Analysis using Cognitive Mapping: A

Case Study
Uncertainty in Projects
 Uncertainty Exists
◦ Projects are Unique Financia
Financia
◦ Complex Dependencies ll

◦ Information Deficiencies
◦ Independent of PM Procedures
◦ An Inherent attribute of a project

Uncertaint
y

Tim Objective
Objective
e s
s
A Review of Risk Analysis Methods
 Checklists  Sensitivity Analysis
 Interviews  Probability Analysis
 Brainstorming ◦ Monte Carlo Simulation
◦ Influence Diagrams
 Delphi
◦ Decision Trees
 Strategic Choice ◦ Fault Tree Analysis
Approach  Analytic Hierarchy
 Systems Approaches Process

To Manage Uncertainty

Qualitative Quantitative
Qualitative Quantitative
A Review of Risk Analysis Methods
High - Uncertainty

Qualitative
and
Qualitative
Quantitativ
e

Low - Risk High - Risk

Quantitativ
Qualitative e

Low- Uncertainty
Cognitive Mapping
 SODA – Strategic Options Development
Approach
 A Problem Structuring Method;
 Addresses the problem –

◦ What is the problem?


 Consultant ‘intervention’ focus;
 Client remains the owner of the problem.
 Develops a “Map” of perceptions of the client
The Individual Technology
and
Language as the Technique
common currency
of organisational Computer Quantitative
life software Analysis
Personal
construct theory System Managing
of complexity
concepts
Cognitive
mapping Facilitator/consultant
Subjectivism Richness
and Facilitative
complexity Device

Managing
Small teams and The organisation as consensus and
coalitions a negotiated commitment
Problem solving
enterprise
through
The politics of facilitating
problem solving negotiation
The Nature of in organisations Consulting
Organisations
Practice
Motivation for Using Cognitive Mapping
 Qualitative approaches assist in identifying
the right risks - becoming effective in
identifying risks
 Problem Structuring Method – action oriented

thinking
 Threats and Opportunities can be delineated

using the concept of poles in Cognitive maps


 This is a preliminary research conducted to

explore the benefits of Cognitive mapping in


identifying risk
A Case Study for SODA
 Website Design Using Adaptive  Website Design Using
Web Design(AWD) Responsive Web Design(RWD)
Engage
with the -
Engage website
with the -
website Credibility of -
Credibility of the website Broken
the website links Increased
download time
Search
Search Readability Engine Readability
Ranking Complex
Engine Too much scripts
Ranking information Too much
information
-
Easy Navigation Structured
Content
Easy Navigation Structured -
Content
-
Use RWD

Use AWD
The Composite Map
User Goals
Engagement -
Credibility with the website
of website

Enhance Search Longer


engine Ranking Readability Strategic
Download
- times Decisions

Structured Appropriate Use Complex


Easy Level of scripts
Navigation - content -
information -
-

Use Use RWD Options


AWD
Risk Profile
 Risk 1: Longer Download times with RWD
 Risk 2: Cant Execute complex scripts with RWD
 Risk 3: Poor Readability with RWD
 Risk 4: Poor Search Engine Ranking with AWD
Almost 4
Certain
Likelihood
Likelihood

Likely
Possible 1,3 2
Unlikely
Remote
Fundamental Major
Impact Moderate Minor Insignificant
Future Research
 To Implement a consultant based approach
 Introduce an interactive workshops to

construct personal cognitive maps


 Compare and evaluate both the approaches
 Add probability weights to the variables

identified to compute final risk figure in


different measures as we review options and
rise to the top of the diagram.
Key References
 Bartlett, J (2004) “Project Risk Analysis and Management Guide”, APM
Publishing Limited
 White D (1995) "Application of systems thinking to risk management: a
review of the literature", Management Decision, Vol. 33 Iss: 10, pp.35 -
45
 Eden, C (1994) “Cognitive mapping and problem structuring for system
dynamics model building”, System Dynamics Review, vol 10, no. 2-3, pp.
257-276.
 Koleczko K (2012) “Risk and uncertainty in project management
decision-making”, Public Infrastructure Bulletin: Vol. 1: Iss. 8, Article 13. 
 Minami A, Staurt M, Rhodes D (2008) “A Systems Approach to Risk
Management” American Society For Engineering Management Conference
Proceedings, 12‐15 November 2008, NY, USA.
 Pidd, M (2003) “Tools for Thinking: Modelling in Management Science”.
2nd edn, John Wiley and Sons Ltd, Chichester.

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