Section 1.

How and Why the Climate is Changing

1.1. Introduction to Climate Science & Climate Change

USAID LEAF
Regional Climate Change Curriculum Development
Module: Basic Climate Change (BCC)
Basic Climate Change (BCC) Module Team Acknowledgements
Basic Climate Change Module Team
Name Affiliation Name Affiliation
Developers
Michael Furniss; Co-Lead US Forest Service David Ganz, Chief of Party USAID LEAFBangkok
Bunleng Se; Co-Lead Royal University of Phnom Penh, Cambodia Chi Pham, Project Coordinator USAID LEAFBangkok
Chan Hoy Yen Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia Naroon Waramit Kasetsart University, Thailand
Kalyan Ly Royal University of Agriculture, Cambodia Phi Thi Hai Ninh Vietnam Forestry University, Vietnam
Somvang Phimmavong National University of Laos Lam Ngoc Tuan Dalat University, Vietnam
Latsamy Boupha National University of Laos Le Hai Yen Dalat University, Vietnam
Sokha Kheam Royal University of Phnom Penh, Cambodia Nguyen Le Ai Vinh Vinh University, Vietnam
Ahmad Makmom Bin Abdullah Universiti Putra Malaysia Nguyen Thi Viet Ha Vinh University, Vietnam
Jirawan Kitchaicharoen Chiang Mai University, Thailand Nicole Kravec USAID LEAFBangkok
Thaworn Onpraphai Chiang Mai University, Thailand Hour Limchhun USAID LEAFCambodia
Patthra Pengthamkeerati Kasetsart University, Thailand Le Nhu Bich Dalat University, Vietnam
Kieu Thi Duong Vietnam Forestry University, Vietnam Somsy Gnophanxay National University of Laos
Truong Quoc Can Vietnam Forests and Deltas Program Karen Castilow University of Virginia
Nguyen Thi Kim Oanh Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand Geoffrey Blate US Forest Service
Mokbul Morshed Ahmad Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand Elizabeth Lebow US Forest Service
Ly Thi Minh Hai USAID LEAFVietnam Kent Elliott US Forest Service
Danielle Morvan Tulane University, New Orleans Ann Rosecrance California State University., Northridge

Reviewers
Andrea Tuttle Freelance consultant Somsy Gnophanxay National University of Laos
Sermkiat Jomjunyoug Chiang Mai University, Thailand Jamil Tajam Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
Sampan Singharajwarapan Chiang Mai University, Thailand Ajimi Bin Jawan Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
Chea Eliyan Royal University of Phnom Penh, Cambodia Ratcha Chaichana Kasetsart University, Thailand
 I. HOW AND WHY THE CLIMATE IS CHANGING
1.1. Introduction to Climate Science and Climate Change
1.2. The Causes of Climate Change
1.3. Climate Intensification: Floods and Droughts
1.4. Climate Modeling
Basic Climate Change (BCC)
II. THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON PEOPLE AND THE ENVIRONMENT
2.1. Introduction to Climate Change Impacts
2.2. Sea Level Rise
2.3. Climate Change and Water Resources: Effects
2.4. Climate Change and Food Security
2.5. Climate Change and Human Health
2.6. Climate Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems
III. REPONSES AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
3.1. Climate Change and Forest Management
3.2. Climate Change and Water Resources: Response and Adaptation
3.3. Principles and Practice of Climate Vulnerability Assessment
3.4. Dealing with Uncertainties in Climate Change
3.5. Introduction to Ecosystem Services
3.6. Introduction to REDD+
3.7. Bioenergy and the Forest
3.8. Communications and Engagement
IV. CURRICULUM MODUL RESOURCES AND TOOLS
4.1. Curated Video Collection
4.2. Literature – Annotated Bibliography
4.3. Climate Change Glossary
4.4. Reading and Video Assignments and Problem Sets
Learning objectives

At the end of this session, learners will be able to:

 Differentiate between climate change and climate
impacts
 Explain how climate impacts are discerned
 Analyze how impacts of climate change combine with
other impacts to people and the environment
 Explain what impact pathways are and how to discern
and evaluate them
Outline

 Why study climate?

 Weather vs. Climate
 Characteristics of weather
 Characteristics of climate
 Solar system
 Earth system
 Climate dynamics
 El Niño and La Niña
 Climate change, climate variability and global warming
 Impacts and responses to climate change
What do you know?

List the following things about climate science and climate

change:
3 Things you know about the topic

2 things you want to learn

1 question you want to ask

Pair yourself to the one sitting on your right hand side and discuss
your answers.
Why Study Climate?

 Determines the type and location of human-managed

ecosystems, such as agricultural farmlands.
 Affects the weathering of rock, the type of soil that forms,
and the rate of soil formation.
 Affects people and society
 What else is affected?
Why Study Climate?

 Helps to determine the quantity and quality of water available

for human use.
 Determines the severity of droughts, storms, and floods.
 Largely determines the nature and locations of biomes -major
terrestrial ecosystems, defined based on their plant
communities.

 What else?
Biomes of the world depend on climate

9
Biomes of the world: A function of climate

10
Weather vs. Climate

What is Weather?

What is Climate?

How are they related? How can they be confused?

Climate vs. Weather

Weather
 The actual state of the atmosphere in a period of several hours up
to a few days (in a given place) (Gramelsberger & Feichter, 2011).
Climate
 A statistical description in terms of the mean and variability of
relevant quantities over a period ranging from months to
thousands or millions of years (IPCC).
 The classical period is 30 years, which are most often surface
variables such as temperature, precipitation, and wind. Climate in
a wider sense is the state, including a statistical description, of the
climate system (World Meteorological Organization (WMO)).
Characteristics of Weather

 Temperature
 Wind
 Clouds
 Precipitation
 Humidity

Weather can be defined as: “State of the atmosphere with respect to heat or cold,
wetness or dryness, calm or storm, clearness or cloudiness. Also, weather is the
meteorological day-to-day variations of the atmosphere and their effects on life
and human activity. It includes temperature, pressure, humidity, clouds, wind,
precipitation and fog.”
From: Weather Glossary and Terminology
 Meteorology – the study of weather

 The field of atmospheric science which is most well-known and of practical

importance to the general public is meteorology, the study of weather.
 Meteorology is usually concerned only with the lowest region of the
atmosphere, the troposphere.
 Weather is influenced not only by vertical, diurnal, and seasonal variations of
atmospheric density and temperature, and of solar heating, but also by
horizontal variations over Earth’s surface.
 Atmospheric winds and circulation are influenced by Earth’s rotation, and by
surface conditions (i.e. whether land or sea, topography, and surface
temperature).
 The advent of weather-monitoring satellites, and of supercomputers, have
greatly facilitated the science and application of meteorology in recent years.
Climatology – the study of weather
statistics, patterns, and trends

 Climatology, the study of climate, differs from meteorology in that climate is the
long-term pattern of temperature, precipitation, wind patterns, etc. at a
particular location, over periods of a year or more, whereas weather is the
current (or very near-term) state of affairs at the location or region of interest.
 For example, the climate in Antarctica is quite different from that in the Sahara
Desert, or the Amazon river basin.
 The latter two are also quite different from each other, despite being at nearly
the same latitudes on Earth.
 Climate can, however, change over long periods of time, and the topic of climate
change is currently of practical importance, because of the known or potential
effects of human activity on local, regional, or even world-wide climates.
The climate is always changing, always
has changed

1,000,000 year time scales

Plate tectonics

100,000 year time scales

Orbital variations and glacial
periods

100-10 year time scales

Events like the Little Ice Age and
Medieval Warm Period

10-5 year time scales

El Niño – La Niña cycles
Other short-term cycles due to
ocean circulation
1,000,000 year time scales

500 mya 400 mya

300 mya 200 mya

Ice sheets can only grow when continents are at the poles.
Which diagram is closest to the shape of
Earth’s orbit?

A B

C
Earth’s orbit

EARTH

The Earth’s orbit is almost

a perfect circle with slight
variations every 100,000
and 400,000 years.
100,000 year time scales
Which graph best shows the overall change in
output of the sun’s energy in the last 30 years?

A B

C
Solar energy output over time
100-10 year time scales
The output of energy from
the sun has been monitored
by satellites for thirty years
and has not increased
during this period of rapid
global warming.
Characteristics of Climate

 Solar System
 Earth System
 Earth’s Dynamics
Solar System

The core point to be

able all the FIVE
Components of Earth
System become
connected and
interacted.
Earth System (interaction)
Air Ice

Water Land

Life
Climate System
Video: How does the climate system work?

Global Climate System Video

Exercise

List two important things you have learned from this Video
Global Energy Flows (W/m2)
Assignment

Individual Work:
 Think of 3 - 5 situations where weather has influenced your
life, your plans. Write these down and describe its influences
to your daily life.
 Discuss with other students and the full class.
Animation of Earth orbit
Dynamics of the Earth

 Atmospheric Circulation
 Ocean Circulation
 Land Surface Processes
 Vegetation
 Carbon Cycle
 Snow and Ice
Atmospheric Circulation

 What is atmospheric circulation?

 What is Coriolis effect?

Atmospheric Circulation

 The atmospheric convection cells play to convey heat from the

warm equatorial region to the cold polar regions.

 Warm air rises near the equatorial latitudes.

 When the rising warm air reaches the peak of the troposphere, it
moves toward the poles, and when the air cools, it flows and
becomes dense enough to sink at latitudes of about 30oN or 30oS.

 When this cold air reaches the Earth's surface, it is moved toward
the equator, and it then warms and rises.

 Where the air is rising or sinking at the equator, 30 o, 50o, 60o, and
at the poles.
General Atmospheric Circulation
Jet Stream occurs
here

Jet Stream occurs

here
Coriolis Effect

 Coriolis Effect comes from the Earth’s rotation

influencing the direction of the air movement.
 The Coriolis Effect causes moving objects or currents on
the surface of a rotating planet to veer to the right
(clockwise) in the Northern Hemisphere and to the left
(counterclockwise) in the Southern Hemisphere.
 Air moves horizontally from high to low pressure zones,
forming the major wind belts, including the trade winds,
between the equator and 30oN and 30oS; between 30oN
and 30oN and 50o to 60oN and 50o to 60oS; and the polar
winds.
Video: Atmospheric circulation

Atmospheric Circulation
Ocean Circulation

 The oceans play a large part of in determining the existing

climate of the Earth.
 It seems to have a crucial influence on climate change due to
human activities.
 Ocean and atmosphere are close interactions and have a strong
system.
 Oceans have high capacity to contain heat compared with the
atmosphere driving to gradually raise temperature in the oceans.
 Oceans redistribute heat throughout the climate system through
their internal circulation.
Ocean circulation has a large effect on
weather and climate
Vegetation - Carbon

Carbon only affects climate when it is in the atmosphere

Gases move through the Earth reservoirs:
 Atmosphere
 Biosphere (living things)
 Lithosphere (solid earth)
 Hydrosphere (freshwater and oceans)
Carbon cycle
Video: The Carbon Cycle

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mldBE9Ee3zY
Snow and ice

 The presence or absence of snow and ice affects

warming and cooling over the Earth’s surface,
influencing the Earth’s energy balance.
 Changes in snow and ice cover affect freshwater
availability, air temperatures, sea levels, ocean
currents, and storm patterns.
Reductions of snow and ice

 A reduction in snow cover and ice causes the Earth’s

surface to absorb more energy from the sun
(decreased albedo), which is a positive feedback,
causing stronger warming
El Niño and global warming

 El Niño in general occurs in every 3 to 7 years and appears

around Christmas period.
 Droughts and floods occurring almost all continents are
associated with El Niño.
 ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) is caused by the shift of
the atmospheric-oceanic conditions, due to the way the
oceans store and transport heat.
 At decadal and annual time scales
Decadal & Annual-Scale Cycles (2
to 45 yr periods)
 Pacific Decadal Oscillation 25 - 45
yr cycle
 El Niño/La Niña (ENSO) 2 - 8 yr
cycle

Driven by changes in
ocean circulation
El Niño

 What is El Niño?
 El Niño is the prolonged warming in the Pacific Ocean sea
surface temperature compared with the average value. It
is a warming of at least 0.5°C (0.9°F) averaged over the
east-central tropical Pacific Ocean.
 A pattern of ocean surface temperature in the Pacific off
the coast of South America, which has a large influence on
world climate (Houghton, 2009).
El Niño

 The first signs of an El Niño are:

 Rise in surface pressure over the Indian Ocean, Indonesia and
Australia
 Fall in air pressure over Tahiti and the rest of the central and eastern
Pacific Ocean 
 Trade winds in the south Pacific weaken or head east
 Warm air rises near Peru, causing rain in the northern Peruvian
deserts
 Warm water spreads from the west Pacific and the Indian Ocean to
the east Pacific. It takes the rain with it, causing extensive drought in
the western Pacific and rainfall in the normally dry eastern Pacific.
 El Niño

El Niño: Warm water

pool approaches South
American coast.
Absence of cold
upwelling increases
warming
La Niña

La Niña: Equatorial
winds gather warm
water pool toward the
west. Cold water
upwells along South
American coast
 Sea surface temperature anomalies for El
Niño (dry) and La Niña (wet) conditions
SST °C SST °C

El Niño
La Niña

Droughts in SE Asia Flooding in SE Asia

Video: El Niño y La Niña

El Niño and La Niña

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FVZrw7bk1w
Chances are about 50% that
El Niño conditions will
develop this year (2014-
2015).
As of October 2014

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center

What is climate change?

IPCC, 3rd Assessment Report:

Climate change: a statistically significant variation in either the mean state
of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period
(typically decades or longer).
Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external
forcings, or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of
the atmosphere or in land use .
UNFCCC, Article 1:
“climate change”: “a change of climate which is attributed directly or
indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global
atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability
observed over comparable time periods.”
What is climate variability?

IPCC, 3rd AR:

Climate variability refers to variations in the mean state and
other statistics (such as the occurrence of extremes, etc.) of
the climate on all temporal and spatial scales beyond that of
individual weather events. Variability may be due to natural
internal processes within the climate system (internal
variability), or to variations in natural or anthropogenic
external forcing (external variability)
 What are the primary indicators of climate
change?

Seven of these indicators would be expected to increase in a warming world and observation show that
they are, in fact, increasing. Three would be expected to decrease and they are, in fact, decreasing.
Warming of Climate

 Increases in global sea and air temperatures

 Widespread melting of snow and ice
 Rising global sea level
 What other effects?
Widespread Melting Snow and Ice

 Most mountain glaciers are getting smaller.

 Snow cover is retreating earlier in the spring.
 Sea ice in the Arctic is shrinking in all seasons, most
dramatically in summer.
 Reductions are in the permafrost, seasonally frozen
ground and river and lake ice.
 Important coastal regions of ice sheets on Greenland and
West Antartica, and the glaciers of the Antartic
Peninsular, are thinning and contributing to sea level rise.
Sea Ice Thickness (10-year average)
How does this affect temperature?

The change in sea ice in the previous slide:

 Discuss: How does this change affect the heating of the
Earth’s atmosphere?
Rising global sea level

Two major causes of global sea level rise:

 Thermal expansion of the oceans (water expands as it
warms)
 Loss of land-based ice due to increased melting and
movement from land to sea
(glaciers and continental ice caps)
 Warming of the climate
system evidence:
Historic record of global

 Increases in global
average air and
ocean temperature
climate change

 Widespread melting
of snow and ice
 Rising global mean
sea level
This module looks at causes, effects, and
our responses to climate change
Arguments that Global Warming is real?
Look here:

https://www.skepticalscien
ce.com/argument.php
References

Climate Science Primer:

http://www.fs.usda.gov/ccrc/climate-basics/climate-primer

Climate Basics - Frequently Asked Questions

http://www.fs.usda.gov/ccrc/climate-basics/climate-faq

Foukal, P., C. Frohlich, H. Spruit, and T. M. L. Wigley. 2006. Variations in

solar luminosity and their effect on the Earth's climate. Nature 443: 161-
166.

Global Warming & Climate Change Myths

https://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php
References

International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports:

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_r
eports.shtml

Mantua, N.J., S.R. Hare, Y. Zhang, J.M. Wallace, and R.C. Francis,
1997: A Pacific decadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon.
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 78, pp 1069-
1079.

World Bank. 2012. Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World
Must Be Avoided. Washington, DC. © World Bank.
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/11860
Instructor Review of Materials

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 What is missing?
 How did you, or would you, modify the materials to make
them better fit your instructional context?
 Please share your experience and modifications here:
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