CCITT/ITU-T 60 Anniversary

Anniversary Talks on
Artificial Intelligence

Stephen Ibaraki
Moderator
[email protected]

CCITT/ITU-T 60 Anniversary
 AI Digital Quake

10 MSs’  $4 T market cap China $337B

Mobile/Cloud
first  AI first AI top 6 trends

Gartner “perceptual smart AI tools, hardware,

machine age” top 3 trends open source (OpenAI)

FSR summit, $91.7 Trillion, AI key

 Data volumes driving AI
Only AI has the power to
analyze this data to solve
grand challenges and problems 26 billion
guiding our future. 2015/16 IoT
entire
devices
human
44 ZB history 2020
2020,
50x 2010
 “Second Machine Age”
Erik Brynjolfsson Andrew McAfee

 Dramatic growth driven by smart machines

 Evidence everywhere
 4th Industrial Revolution

The Fourth Industrial Revolution 

by Prof Klaus Schwab World Economic Forum;
Subject UBS paper 

EXTREME automation, Cyber-physical systems

connectivity driven by AI and robots
 AI Impact

Economic, cultural, social, Labour - McKinsey 58%

… endless disruption
of jobs automated

Martin Ford,
Rise of the Robots

Elon Musk, artificial intelligence...

existential threat
 AoE: AI of Everything

Is AI creating a digital quake where >

80 percent of companies and jobs will need to change or fail?

What are the implications to society, economic

development, and path to prosperity?

AI technical standards achieve SDGs?

 AI Driven Unprecedented Era
Hyper time compression
new disruptive innovations

Extreme convergence
of multiple domains

Exponential accelerating automation

– smart sensors and the 26 billion IoT devices by 2020
(11 trillion USD by 2025)

Universal connectivity linked

by a digital AI mesh
AI Driven Unprecedented Era

AI of Everything (AoE)-the global AI mesh

spawning a Digital Quake driving the
Knowledge Synthesis of Everything (KSE),
an inflection point
for humankind and the SDGs.
 AoE: Evidence
Singapore self-driving Taxis Telefonica, BigML AI
September 2016 selects startups

Norwegian Telenor AI Deep Knowledge Ventures,

and Big Data Lab AI votes on investments

GE survival on software and AI Baidu, AskADoctor,

520 diseases, refers specialists
Baidu, StockMaster
predicts market trends Controversy: AI bias
United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs):
affordable, reliable, everywhere, safe,
inclusive, fair, equal, resilient, sustainable, all ages
ITU
WSIS
11
Action
Lines

UN 17 SDGs
AI 2015-2030

UN 8
MDGs
2000-
2015
United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs):
affordable, reliable, everywhere, safe, inclusive,
fair, equal, resilient, sustainable, all ages

AI
 AI and SDGs

Tracking poverty Diagnosis Causal influences Micro-finance

(SDG1) (SDG3) development programs (SDG8)
education (SDG4)

Greenhouse emissions
and smart cities (SDG11&13) Global partnerships (SDG17)
 ITU and AI
ITU partner  $5 million prize International standards?
IBM Watson  Diverse and open sources
 Solving grand challenges
AI XPRIZE

IEEE ethics, Stanford project “100 Year Study”

BSI8611 ethics design and application robots

US Whitehouse 2 AI reports in Oct Partnership on AI for People and Society

Open discussion and questions

 Discussions on AI

IDG-IT
ACM World ICSE
Learning
Center 2016
 Setti ng the context
Resources

Discussions with over 1000 experts, most here:

http://bit.ly/1mbO2MG

Computing Educators Oral History Project

http://www.southwestern.edu/departments/mathcompsci/OHPr
oject/other-ohprojects.html
 Appendix:
Added information
Resources—discussions with over 1000 experts,
most here: http://bit.ly/1mbO2MG

Computing Educators Oral History Project

http://www.southwestern.edu/departments/m
athcompsci/OHProject/other-ohprojects.html
10 x Microsofts’: Master Algorithm  $4T USD
 
Development Phases
Concept Research & Transfer Production & Usage  Key: 1-10
Types of Development Deployment
Commercial 1 smartphone
Innovation (R&D) upgrade

Products 10 Master
10 1 + 10 1 + 10 1 + 10 1+ 10 Algorithm
Services  
10 10 10 10 10
Process  
10 10 10 10 10
Organization Model  
10 10 10 10 10
Business Model or  
9 areas of the 10 10 10 10 10
Business Model
Canvas

Social-mediated
10 10 10 10 10
Machine-learning
10 10 10 10 10
SRC: adapted from IT Innovation Foundation and OECD
 AI supporting all United Nations/ITU World Summit on the
Information Society (WSIS) Action Lines

C3.Access
C1.Gov, Stake-holder
C2.ICT infrastructure information
promotion ICTs
knowledge

C5.Confidence C6.Enabling
C4.Capacity building
Security in ICT environment

C8.Cultural, language
*C7.Applicati0ns diversity, identity, local
content
C9.Media
*C7. e-gov, e-bus, e-learn, e-health, e-employ, e-environ, e-agri, e-sci

SRC: United Nations

C11.Coope
 ICT Innovation: Digital Libraries, Ex. ACM
• World’s largest scientific, educational and professional
computing association
• +110,000 members, +50% outside US
• Educators, researchers, developers, students
• +500 conferences / workshops / events
• +70 publications / newsletters
• +35 Special Interest Groups or SIGS (such as SIGGRAPH)
• Awards (such as Turing “Nobel Prize of Computing”)
• 1.5 million worldwide users of the Digital Library
• individuals, academic institutions, government research
centers, corporations…http://dl.acm.org/
• ACM Learning Center, webcasts, videos, books, courses,…
http://learning.acm.org/
 Daily AI News!

• AI assesses breast cancer risk 30 times faster

http://www.forbes.com/sites/janetwburns/2016/08/29/artificial-intelligence-can-help-doctors-assess-breast-cancer-risk-thirty-times-faster/#7b717af556e2

• GE, reborn as a software startup using AI

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/28/technology/ge-the-124-year-old-software-start-up.html?_r=0

• World leading 2025 China AI industry

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/tech/2016-08/27/content_26615174.htm

• Global AI Market 2015: 127B; 2016: 165B; 2018:

200B
• Audrey--NASA's New Self-Learning AI Could Save
First Responders
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/this-nasa-ai-will-sense-danger-save-firefighters-and-learn-from-mistakes

• Voice recognition 3x faster than typing

http://www.npr.org/sections/alltechconsidered/2016/08/24/491156218/voice-recognition-software-finally-beats-humans-at-typing-study-finds?utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=stori
esfromnpr

SRC: News
 Daily AI News!
• The world's first self-driving taxis will be picking up
passengers in Singapore in September 1
http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/driverless-taxi-nutonomy-1.3735375

• AI bias http://motherboard.vice.com/read/its-our-fault-that-ai-thinks-white-names-are-more-pleasant-than-black-names

• Norwegian Telco creates AI and Big Data lab

https://www.telecomtvtracker.com/insights/telenor-supports-norwegian-entrepreneurship-and-artificial-intelligence-research-6448/

• Telefonica and BigML using AI to select startups

https://www.telefonica.com/es/web/press-office/-/telefonica-open-future_-and-bigml-create-preseries-a-joint-venture-for-early-stage-investment

• Deep Knowledge Ventures appoints AI like a board

member to make investment decision
http://www.itbusiness.ca/blog/hong-kong-vc-firm-appoints-ai-to-board-of-directors/48815

• Satellite images and machine learning can map

poverty http://bit.ly/2bxEv3w

SRC: News
 Examples: Robots, AI

• Baidu (O2O—online to offline): Medical voice-translation virtual robot,

AskADoctor, knows 520 different diseases gives diagnosis with odds, links
to nearby specialist
• Baidu: AI StockMaster analyses news, markets predicting sectors, stocks
or markets changes
• Robot experiments shows signs of self-awareness (Rensselaer Polytechnic
Institute NY)
• 3 could speak
• 2 muted
• Asked to figure out who could speak; no one could solve the problem
• Each tried to say “I do not know”, one heard itself and said, “Sorry, I
know now" then saying more indicating it knew it could speak.

SRC: ACM, News releases

 Examples: Robots, AI
• DARPA—Defense research (Defense Advanced Research Projects
Agency)
• IBM SyNAPSE neuromorphic chip—modelled on brains, 1
million neurons, 256 million synapses (human—100bn, 100 trn)
• ElectRX—injected nano-chips acting as pacemakers to nervous
system giving stimulating signals treating arthritis, mental
illness, …
• BRAIN initiative--human brain modulation and recording
• RAM--implantable neural device with the ability to record and
stimulate neurons within the brain to help restore memory

SRC: ACM, News releases/stories

 5 AI Megatrends: Pedro Domingos
1.The transition from computers that are programmed by us to
computers that learn on their own. This is enabled by big data, and
in turn enables the personalization of everything, from medicine to
shopping, and the increasing automation of every function in an
organization.

2.The automation of scientific discovery. Increasingly, each step of

the scientific method, from gathering data to formulating
hypotheses, is carried out by computers. This enables, for example,
new drugs to be discovered at a much faster rate than before.

3.The replacement of white-collar workers by machines, not just

blue-collar ones. Routine intellectual work can increasingly be done
by AI; what's hard to replace is physical dexterity, common sense,
SRC: News releases
and integrative intelligence.
 5 Megatrends: Pedro Domingos

4.The transition from deterministic to probabilistic computing.

From hardware to software, rigidly deterministic computations are
giving way to probabilistic ones, enabling faster, cheaper, lower-
power, larger-scale, more ubiquitous, more flexible, data-driven
information systems.

5.The rise of evidence-based X, where X includes medicine, policy-

making, development aid, and ultimately all important societal
decisions. Instead of guesswork and mixed results, we have
randomized controlled trials that quickly weed out what doesn't
work from what does.

Book: The Master Algorithm, Sept 2015

Interview: http://www.itworldcanada.com/author/sibaraki
 So How Do Computers Discover New
Knowledge?

1. Symbolists--Fill in gaps in existing knowledge

2. Connectionists--Emulate the brain
3. Evolutionists--Simulate evolution
4. Bayesians--Systematically reduce uncertainty
5. Analogizers--Notice similarities between old and new

SRC: Pedro Domingos ACM Webinar Nov 2015 http://learning.acm.org/multimedia.cfm

Combining The Five Tribes of Machine Learning:
Single algorithm or Master Algorithm (UL)

Tribe Origins Key Algorithm

Symbolists Logic, philosophy Inverse deduction

Connectionists Neuroscience Backpropagation

Evolutionists Evolutionary biology Genetic programming

Bayesians Statistics Probabilistic inference

Analogizers Psychology Kernel machines

SRC: Pedro Domingos ACM Webinar Nov 2015 http://learning.acm.org/multimedia.cfm

 UL: Putting the Pieces Together
• Representation
• Probabilistic logic (e.g., Markov logic networks)
• Weighted formulas → Distribution over states
• Evaluation
• Posterior probability
• User-defined objective function
• Optimization
• Formula discovery: Genetic programming
• Weighted learning: Backpropagation

• OpenAI Gym, public beta: https://gym.openai.com/

• IBM Watson AI XPRIZE (TED2020): http://www.xprize.org/ai

SRC: Pedro Domingos ACM Webinar Nov 2015 http://learning.acm.org/multimedia.cfm

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/elon-musks-1bn-non-profit-launches-gym-train-ai-atari-games-1557362
 ML vs CRISPR/Cas9

• Will the rapid exponential pace of parallel machine evolution

realized by machine learning and human evolution spurred by
CRISPR/Cas9 disrupt your world?
 Insights from FSR FIF Future Summit
• FIF (Financial Services summit) – top 150 experts and CEOs
• http://www.fintechideasfestival.com/
• Global industry $14 Trillion, 18% global GDP
• 10-20 years into the future
• Spotlighted trends being explored:
• The Future of FinTech
• Financial Inclusion
• Big Data & Internet of Things
• Artificial Intelligence
• Biometrics, the Imminent Future
• Blockchain, Cryptocurrencies, & Distributed Ledger
• Cybersecurity
• The Future of the FinTech Workforce
 Megatrends (MT): “Second Machine Age”

“Second Machine Age”: Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee

• Professors from MIT “global economy is on the cusp of a
dramatic growth spurt driven by smart machines that finally
take full advantage of advances in computer processing,
artificial intelligence, networked communication and the
digitization of just about everything.”
• Exponential growth: computing power, digital information,
cheap IoT communicating, Big Data, unlimited speed, data
recombination, ubiquity
• Evidence: Driverless cars, cell-reported traffic patterns, robots
scanning and understanding environments, HoloLens, Skype
language translation, computers writing
reviews/resumes/grading essays
SRC: Washington Post: Steven Pearlstein http://wapo.st/1bFeuMQ ;
http://blog.instagram.com/post/104847837897/141210-300million
 Megatrends (MT): “Second Machine Age”

• Instagram: 400+ million/mthly users, 100+ million

photos/videos/daily; in 18 months sold for $1B to Facebook;
Kodak declares bankruptcy same month
• FB Market Value ~$315B in top 5; ~$100B bigger than
Walmart; 10 times Kodak at peak; FB 7 billionaires each 10x
greater wealth than George Eastman
• WhatsApp $22B, 55 employees purchased by Facebook Feb
2014; $400 million value per person; new low capital business
model
Today: WhatsApp 1B users/mthly + Messenger 900 million =
60 billion mssgs/day
VS
United Airlines Dec 2015 $22B market cap, 82,300 employees
SRC: Washington Post: Steven Pearlstein http://wapo.st/1bFeuMQ ;
http://blog.instagram.com/post/104847837897/141210-300million ;
http://www.dogsofthedow.com/largest-companies-by-market-cap.htm ;
Megatrends (MT): “Second Machine Age”
“Second Machine Age” : Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee
• First machine age (Kodak), rising and related together with jobs:
productivity, employment and income

• Second machine age (FB), existing separately, productivity from

jobs/income; with few employees, products/services for
unlimited customers, at little cost
------------------------------
• Future need: Driving greater demand for high-level
programmers; education system focussed on skills for smart
machines

SRC: Washington Post: Steven Pearlstein http://wapo.st/1bFeuMQ

 Megatrends (MT): 4th Industrial
Revolution
•  The Fourth Industrial Revolution 
by Prof Klaus Schwab founder executive chairman World
Economic Forum; subject UBS paper 
• EXTREME automation, connectivity
• “ALL” dependent upon computing power
• Examples:
• CRISPR/Cas9 gene editing
Jia Jia China, Boston Dynamics walking Robots, Hanson’s Sophia

http://www.techrepublic.com/article/microsoft-envision-prepare-yourself-for-the-fourth-industrial-revolution/
https://www.weforum.org/pages/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-by-klaus-schwab/
https://www.ubs.com/global/en/about_ubs/follow_ubs/highlights/davos-2016.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/$1,000_genome
 MT: 4th Industrial Revolution
• Three clusters merging in cyber-physical systems driven by AI
and robots:
• Physical (human world),
• Digital (technosphere),
• Biological (natural world)

http://www.techrepublic.com/article/microsoft-envision-prepare-yourself-for-the-fourth-industrial-revolution/
https://www.weforum.org/pages/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-by-klaus-schwab/
https://www.ubs.com/global/en/about_ubs/follow_ubs/highlights/davos-2016.html
 MT: 4th Industrial Revolution

• Impacts: economic, cultural, social, … endless disruption

• Labour (McKinsey US 58% = 45% can be automated now, +13%
NLP reaches avg human levels)
• Cybersecurity risks (Eurasia Group’s cyber risk index of 1-100:
US 77, China 88)
• Geopolitical (global reaction to US presidential process,
populist movements, Zika virus concerns, terrorist acts,
economic inequality)
• Winning by flexibility, mobility, and adaptability in: education,
labour, infrastructure, legal IP

http://www.techrepublic.com/article/microsoft-envision-prepare-yourself-for-the-fourth-industrial-revolution/
https://www.weforum.org/pages/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-by-klaus-schwab/
https://www.ubs.com/global/en/about_ubs/follow_ubs/highlights/davos-2016.htm
l http://techcrunch.com/2016/04/15/artificial-intelligence-and-racist/?ncid=rss
 MT: 4th Industrial Revolution
• Physical (human world): 
• Autonomous tech (DARPA, Google, Tesla, Toyota,…)
• 3D printing of circuit boards, cells, organs, medical implants,
industrial parts
• 4D printing products responding to environment later in time – time
the 4D
• Advanced Robotics (OceanOne, Jia Jia, Atlas/Boston Dynamics,
Hybrid Delphi human and machine learning collaboration—
Korea 4.5% GDP R&D)
• New Materials (embedded electronics e-skin, self-repairing,
Lotus Leaf-inspired nanotech, shape memory polymers,
nanomaterials like quantum dot tech / new batteries)

http://www.techrepublic.com/article/microsoft-envision-prepare-yourself-for-the-fourth-industrial-revolution/
https://www.weforum.org/pages/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-by-klaus-schwab/
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/sxsw-meet-sophia-female-humanoid-robot-that-says-she-wants-start-family-destroy-huma
ns-1550695
 MT: 4th Industrial Revolution
• Biological: 
• Genetic analysis
• Synthetic human genome cell line (HGP-Write)
• CRISPR/Cas9/Cpf1 for designer plants, animals, humans,
embryo experimentation already happening
• DARPA brain implants, Brain interfaces, Mind control of
objects, EU Brain project, US Brain initiative, Consciousness
understanding

http://www.techrepublic.com/article/microsoft-envision-prepare-yourself-for-the-fourth-industrial-revolution/
https://www.weforum.org/pages/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-by-klaus-schwab/
 MT: 4th Industrial Revolution
• Digital: 
• Mobile growing + Sensors rising + IoT planetary nervous
system + breakout of Chatbots, virtual assistants and
intelligent agents, NLP = Big Data: real-time, findable,
shareable, transparent, data patterns with data mining /
analytics; processing costs falling, cloud rising, better user
interfaces, machine learning / deep learning /
recommender / prediction (problem solving)

http://www.techrepublic.com/article/microsoft-envision-prepare-yourself-for-the-fourth-industrial-revolution/
https://www.weforum.org/pages/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-by-klaus-schwab/
http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/overview/in-the-news/by-2025-internet-of-things-applications-could-have-11-trillion-
impact
 MT: 4th Industrial Revolution
• Digital: 
• IoT (McKinsey 2025: $11.1 trillion per year)
• IoT -> global digital mesh -> planetary nervous system -> ML ->
Knowledge Synthesis of Everything (KSE)
• Smart sensors (trillion+ 2025)
• Smart devices (7B plus mobile subscriptions; 10B units;
Artik chips; Maker movement-Edison, Arduino101,Curie;
SOC; SOM; heterogeneous computing; $65 down to $5)
• Sharing Caring Economy (O to O) and new disruptive
business models (Uber, AirBnB, Alibaba, Facebook, Amazon
Mechanical Turk)

http://www.techrepublic.com/article/microsoft-envision-prepare-yourself-for-the-fourth-industrial-revolution/
https://www.weforum.org/pages/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-by-klaus-schwab/
http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/overview/in-the-news/by-2025-internet-of-things-applications-could-have-11-trillion-impact
KPCB
http://motherboard.vice.com/blog/inexpensive-small-computers-are-changing-the-maker-movement
http://www.cnet.com/news/samsung-artik-teases-smart-robots-light-switches-of-the-future/#ftag=CADf328eec
 MT: 4th Industrial Revolution
• Digital: 
• Blockchain (shared distributed ledger for all kinds of
transactions and registrations completed in seconds and not
days, open source Hyperledger backed by 40 companies, R3
40+ banks + MS Azure & 45 “block-chain as- a-service
providers”, NASDAQ private companies shares tracking,
tagging with BC digital fingerprints [BlockVerify] reduce $1.77
tn counterfeit goods/50% online meds with no doctor name)
• Rise of the digital assistants and chatbots (“HER” is here)
• Augmented reality and virtual reality (Magic Leap, HoloLens,
Oculus)

http://www.techrepublic.com/article/microsoft-envision-prepare-yourself-for-the-fourth-industrial-revolution/
https://www.weforum.org/pages/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-by-klaus-schwab/
http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/overview/in-the-news/by-2025-internet-of-things-applications-could-have-11-trillion-
impact
 CRISPR/Cas9
• CRISPR/Cas9: gene editing platform
• clustered regularly-interspaced short palindromic repeats =
from adaptive immune system in bacteria
• Cas9 = enzyme guided by RNA programmed to locate DNA
sequence; Cas9 serves as molecular scissors for DNA
sequence cut-and-paste
• Evolving with single letter DNA base-editing technique with
2/3 of genetic illness are single letter mutations;
protein Cpf1 replaces Cas9 makes CRISPR simpler and more
precise
• U.S. Department of Agriculture won’t regulate
like GMO plants using foreign bacteria DNA

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/02/health/crispr-gene-editing-human-embryos-kathy-niakan-britain.html?_r=0
 CRISPR/Cas9
• Created mini pet pigs, beagles with double the muscle mass
• Labs creating cures for types of late-onset Alzheimer’s, breast
cancer, hemophilia, cystic fibrosis, cervical cancer, blindness
(retinitis pigmentosa), snip out HIV from immune cells;
eliminate things like Lyme disease, Malaria and Zika virus by
changing mosquitos; modifying pigs so they can act as organ
donors, engineer crops that can survive in warmer climates
produced by climate change, program yeast to create plastics,
revive extinct species such as the Woolly Mammoth
• Create designer humans?
 CRISPR/Cas9
• Cheap, versatile, precise and easy; getting more accurate
• International Summit on Human Gene Editing, US, UK, and
China using viable human embryos should not be banned;
altering embryos for clinical purposes unacceptable
• Experimentation on non-viable embryos conducted in China;
UK approves providing no implantation

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/02/health/crispr-gene-editing-human-embryos-kathy-niakan-britain.html?_r=0
 ML vs CRISPR/Cas9

• Will the rapid exponential pace of parallel machine evolution

realized by machine learning and human evolution spurred by
CRISPR/Cas9 disrupt your world?
 Megatrends: ICT Usage

to 2018:
>4B Internet users (USA:
54% e-comm 2-1/tablet/ph)
+60% Smart
+50% Total Web
2014-2015:
3.2B Internet Users --+$4T Commerce Smart Internet
(USA: 29% e-commerce 2-1/tablet/phone)
+1B Wearables (20 sensors)
~7B Mobile Subscriptions (10 sensors) 20 ZB data (NELL)
+81% Mobile Data Growth; video
36% Smartphones (+20% annual growth)

+10% high speed internet =

avg $318, -5% per year
25% Total Web Usage *ICT = “Super Capital”
+4 zettabytes data (4B TB) 5x productivity gain
up to 2% Economic Growth
34% useful, 7% tagged, 1% analyzed
$1 ICT = $5 return
SRC: KPCB, Wikipedia, UN, *ICT
World~20% GDP Growth
Bank, IMF, ITU, ITIF, extrapolations from news releases (IDC, Gartner, Forrester,…)
 MT: GIC 2020 Skills Assessment
• Changing environments:
• 3D printing – Driving changes in logistics management; what is
intellectual property; new pricing models
• Data Equity – The value of data internally, externally and the ways
in which that information can be monetised. What are the right
types of information and ways to get this information to enable
business improvement
• The cloud – The value that it can bring short term and the
restrictions that it can bring longer term

SRC: GIC report http://ipthree.org/

http://www.techrepublic.com/article/how-ge-is-using-3d-printing-to-unleash-the-biggest-revolution-in-large-scale-manufacturi
 MT: GIC 2020 Skills Assessment
• Changing environments:
• Automation – driving new self service capabilities
• Open source – growing trend in providing support, customer
service and consultancy
• Integration – need for standards, reliable and trusted systems in
healthcare integration in wearables, in car info-entertainment,
smart metering, industrialising architectures, joining the supply
chain together across suppliers, and buyers

SRC: GIC report http://ipthree.org/

 MT: AI Innovation: Healthcare
• Costs, up to 17% of GDP
• $660K lifetime costs: http://bit.ly/1ppFLGc
• 52% consumers want web tools
• 62% want to use email for health concerns
• Smart wearable's: Samsung, Apple, MS, …
• mHealth or Mobile Health
• Telemedicine, Curely, JioHealth
• http://learning.acm.org/multimedia.cfm [podcasts]
• Research: Optogenetics, Epigenetics

SRC: KPCB, Wikipedia, News Releases … see URL Links to Web Site(s)
 MT: AI Innovation: Healthcare
• Optogenetics/optoclamp (closed loop control)—activate cells
(eg. Neurons) with light signals; optimize signals from feedback
with continuous real-time adjustments
• Epigenetics: external or environmental factors that switch
genes on and off
• Precision genetic medicine:
• CRISPR/Cas9 gene editing: cheap, easy, snipping gene
segments and replacing them
• CRISPR, clustered regularly interspaced palindromic
repeats—matches DNA sequences
• Cas9 enzyme cut out the matched DNA, allows
replacement

SRC: KPCB, Wikipedia, News Releases … see URL Links to Web Site(s)
 MT: AI Innovation: Healthcare
• Neuroscience:
• Neuroticism linked to creative genius
• Insect brains controlling robots
• Brain-to-brain networks (BRAIN-NETS) in primates, rodents
working together for tasks, predict weather (better than working
alone)
• Transplanted embryonic GABA-expressing neurons increasing plas
ticity in the brains of adult mice
, allowing for extensive rewiring and the creation of new neural
connections -- comparable to that which occurs during important
stages of brain development

SRC: KPCB, Wikipedia, News Releases/stories, news360, … see URL Links to Web Site(s)
 MT: AI Innovation: Healthcare
• Neuroscience:
• Passive frame theory—Consciousness—passive conduit rather
than an active force that exerts control; more reflexive and less
purposeful interpreter presenting information but is not the one
making any arguments or acting upon the knowledge that is
shared; “free will" "decider" does not exist, consciousness only
relays information to control "voluntary" action, or goal-oriented
movement involving the skeletal muscle system
• Algorithm for Simplifying the Brain's Deep Complexity--Machine
learning dimensionality reduction, interprets large-scale neural
recordings
• Brain signature predicts human emotions—90+% accuracy, neural
activation pattern across brain, found by machine learning with
neural imaging

SRC: KPCB, Wikipedia, News Releases/stories, news360, … see URL Links to Web Site(s)
 MT Innovation: Blue Sky
EmDrive—electromagnetic space propulsion technology

Fusion—Lockheed announces compact design;

prototype in under 10 years

AI and Quantum Learning: D-Wave 2X 1,000+ qubits—

quantum computing 100 million times faster (Nasa,
Google, Lockheed, Los Alamos National Laboratory).
IBM Quantum Experience

Nanomaterials—nanorobots in medicine, extra

capacity/life batteries, quantum dot solar windows, …

No limits

SRC: KPCB, Forbes, Wikipedia, News Releases/stories … see URL Links to Web Site
 MT: AI Big Questions?
The Reality:
• Unlimited computational resources and connections
• Pervasive computational thinking
• Whatever the future, it will depend on computing
• Everything is recorded, nothing is forgotten
• Organizational, geographical boundaries disappearing
• Moving towards a master algorithm—universal learner

Digital quake – 2030 80% companies and jobs change?

What are the economic implications?
What is the social impact?
What will the world look like?
What are the intended and unintended consequences?
Is there a need for ICT accountability, ethical conduct,
credentialing which EQUALS professionalism?
Inspired / adapted from assertions from Grady Booch keynote, NSF PACE Workshop August 21, 2014, Washington DC