Chapter 3

Probability

• 3.1 Basic Concepts of Probability

• 3.2 Conditional Probability and the Multiplication
Rule
• 3.3 The Addition Rule
• 3.4 Additional Topics in Probability and Counting

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 Section 3.1
Basic Concepts of Probability
Objectives
•Identify the sample space of a probability experiment and
identify simple events
•How to use the Fundamental Counting Principle to find the
number of ways two or more events can occur
•Identify and distinguish among 3 types of probability
(classical/theoretical, empirical/statistical, and subjective
probabilities)
•How to find the probability of the complement of an event
•How to use a tree diagram and the Fundamental Counting
Principle to find probabilities
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 Probability Experiments
Probability experiment
• An action, or trial, through which specific results (counts,
measurements, or responses) are obtained.
Outcome
• The result of a single trial in a probability experiment.
Sample Space
• The set of all possible outcomes of a probability experiment.
Event
• Consists of one or more outcomes and is a subset of the
sample space.

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 Probability Experiments

• Probability experiment: Roll a die

• Outcome: {3}

• Sample space: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

• Event: {Die is even}={2, 4, 6}

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 Example: Identifying the Sample
Space
A probability experiment consists of tossing a coin and
then rolling a six-sided die. Describe the sample space.

Solution:
There are two possible outcomes when tossing a coin:
a head (H) or a tail (T). For each of these, there are six
possible outcomes when rolling a die: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or
6. One way to list outcomes for actions occurring in a
sequence is to use a tree diagram.

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 Solution: Identifying the Sample
Space
Tree diagram:

H1 H2 H3 H4 H5 H6 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6

The sample space has 12 outcomes:

{H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6, T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6}

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 Simple Events
• An event that consists of a single outcome is a simple
event.

 e.g. “Tossing heads and rolling a 3” {H3}

• An event that consists of more than one outcome is

not a simple event.

 e.g. “Tossing heads and rolling an even number”

{H2, H4, H6}
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Example: Identifying Simple Events
Determine whether the event is simple or not.
• You roll a six-sided die. Event B is rolling at least a 4.
Solution:
Not simple (event B has three outcomes: rolling a 4, a 5,
or a 6)

• A computer is used to randomly select a number

between 1 and 400. Event B is selecting 355.

Simple event (event B has a single outcome).

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 Fundamental Counting Principle
Fundamental Counting Principle
• If one event can occur in m ways and a second event
can occur in n ways, the number of ways the two
events can occur in sequence is m ∙ n.
• Can be extended for any number of events occurring
in sequence.

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 Example: Fundamental Counting
Principle
You are purchasing a new car. The possible manufacturers,
car sizes, and colors are listed.
Manufacturer: Ford, GM, Honda
Car size: compact, midsize
Color: white (W), red (R), black (B), green (G)
How many different ways can you select one manufacturer,
one car size, and one color? Use a tree diagram to check
your result.

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 Solution: Fundamental Counting
Principle
There are three choices of manufacturers, two car sizes,
and four colors.
Using the Fundamental Counting Principle:
3 ∙ 2 ∙ 4 = 24 ways

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 Example: Fundamental Counting
Principle
The access code of a house security system consists of five
digits. Each digit can be a number between 0 and 9. How
many access codes are possible if:
1) Each digit can be used only once and not repeated?
2) Each digit can be repeated?
3) Each digit can be repeated but the first digit cannot be 0 or
1?

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 Types of Probability

Classical (theoretical) Probability

• Each outcome in a sample space is equally
likely.
Number of outcomes in event E
P( E ) 
Number of outcomes in sample space

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 Example: Finding Classical
Probabilities
You roll a six-sided die. Find the probability of each
event.
1. Event A: rolling a 3
2. Event B: rolling a 7
3. Event C: rolling a number less than 5

Solution:
Sample space: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

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 Solution: Finding Classical
Probabilities
1. Event A: rolling a 3 Event A = {3}
1
P (rolling a 3)   0.167
6
2. Event B: rolling a 7 Event B= { } (7 is not in
the sample space)
0
P (rolling a 7)   0
6
3. Event C: rolling a number less than 5
Event C = {1, 2, 3, 4}
4
P (rolling a number less than 5)   0.667
6
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 Types of Probability

Empirical (Statistical) Probability

• Based on observations obtained from probability experiments.
• Relative frequency of an event.

Frequency of event E f
P( E )  
Total frequency n

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 Example: Finding Empirical
Probabilities
A company is conducting a telephone survey of randomly
selected individuals to get their overall impressions of the
past decade (2000s). So far, 1504 people have been
surveyed. What is the probability that the next person
surveyed has a positive overall impression of the 2000s?
Response Number of
times, f
Positive 406
Negative 752
Neither 316
Don’t know 30
Σf = 1504

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 Solution: Finding Empirical Probabilities
Response Number of times, f
event Positive 406
frequency
Negative 752
Neither 316
Don’t know 30
Σf = 320

f 406
P ( positive)    0.270
n 1504

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 Law of Large Numbers
Law of Large Numbers
• As an experiment is repeated over and over, the
empirical probability of an event approaches the
theoretical (actual) probability of the event.

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 Types of Probability

Subjective Probability
• Intuition, educated guesses, and estimates.
• e.g. A doctor may feel a patient has a 90% chance
of a full recovery.

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 Example: Classifying Types of
Probability
Classify the statement as an example of classical,
empirical, or subjective probability.
1. The probability that you will get the flu this year is 0.1

Subjective probability (most likely an educated guess)

2. The probability that a voter chosen at random will be

younger than 35 years old is 0.3.

Empirical probability (most likely based on a survey)

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 Example: Classifying Types of
Probability
Classify the statement as an example of classical, empirical,
or subjective probability.
3. The probability of winning a 1000-ticket raffle with
one ticket is 1000
1

Classical probability (equally likely outcomes)

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 Range of Probabilities Rule

Range of probabilities rule

• The probability of an event E is between 0 and 1,
inclusive.
• 0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1

Even
Impossible Unlikely chance Likely Certain
[ ]
0 0.5 1

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 Complementary Events

Complement of event E
• The set of all outcomes in a sample space that
are not included in event E.
• Denoted E ′ (E prime)
• P (E ′) + P (E) = 1
E′
• P (E) = 1 – P (E ′) E
• P (E ′) = 1 – P (E)

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 Example: Probability of the
Complement of an Event
You survey a sample of 1000 employees at a company
and record the age of each. Find the probability of
randomly choosing an employee who is not between 25
and 34 years old. Employee ages Frequency, f
15 to 24 54
25 to 34 366
35 to 44 233
45 to 54 180
55 to 64 125
65 and over 42
Σf = 1000
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 Solution: Probability of the
Complement of an Event
• Use empirical probability to find P (age 25
to 34)
Employee ages Frequency, f
f 366 15 to 24 54
P(age 25 to 34)    0.366 25 to 34 366
n 1000
35 to 44 233
• Use the complement rule 45 to 54 180
55 to 64 125
366
P (age is not 25 to 34)  1  65 and over 42
1000
Σf = 1000
634
  0.634
1000

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 Example: Probability Using a Tree
Diagram
A probability experiment consists of tossing a coin and
spinning the spinner shown. The spinner is equally likely
to land on each number. Use a tree diagram to find the
probability of tossing a tail and spinning an odd number.

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 Solution: Probability Using a Tree
Diagram
Tree Diagram:
H T

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

H1 H2 H3 H4 H5 H6 H7 H8 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8
4 1
P(tossing a tail and spinning an odd number) =   0.25
16 4

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 Example: Probability Using the
Fundamental Counting Principle

Your college identification number consists of 8 digits.

Each digit can be 0 through 9 and each digit can be
repeated. What is the probability of getting your college
identification number when randomly generating eight
digits?

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 Solution: Probability Using the
Fundamental Counting Principle
• Each digit can be repeated
• There are 10 choices for each of the 8 digits
• Using the Fundamental Counting Principle, there are
10 ∙ 10 ∙ 10 ∙ 10 ∙ 10 ∙ 10 ∙ 10 ∙ 10
= 108 = 100,000,000 possible identification numbers
• Only one of those numbers corresponds to your ID
number
1
P(your ID number) = 100, 000, 000

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 Section 3.1 Summary
• Identified the sample space of a probability experiment
and identified simple events
• Used the Fundamental Counting Principle to find the
number of ways two or more events can occur
• Distinguished among classical probability, empirical
probability, and subjective probability
• Determined the probability of the complement of an event
• Used a tree diagram and the Fundamental Counting
Principle to find probabilities

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 Section 3.2
Conditional Probability and the
Multiplication Rule
Objectives
•How to find the probability of an event given that
another event has occurred
•How to distinguish between independent and dependent
events
•How to use the Multiplication Rule to find the
probability of two events occurring in sequence and to
find conditional probabilities

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 Conditional Probability

Conditional Probability
• The probability of an event occurring, given
that another event has already occurred
• Denoted P (B | A) (read “probability of B,
given A”)

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 Example: Finding Conditional
Probabilities
Two cards are selected in sequence from a standard
deck. Find the probability that the second card is a
queen, given that the first card is a king. (Assume that
the king is not replaced.)

Solution:
Because the first card is a king and is not replaced, the
remaining deck has 51 cards, 4 of which are queens.
4
P( B | A)  P(2 card is a Queen |1 card is a King ) 
nd
 0.078
st

51

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 Example: Finding Conditional
Probabilities
The table shows the results of a study in which
researchers examined a child’s IQ and the presence of a
specific gene in the child. Find the probability that a
child has a high IQ, given that the child has the gene.

Gene Gene not

Present present Total
High IQ 33 19 52
Normal IQ 39 11 50
Total 72 30 102

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 Solution: Finding Conditional
Probabilities
There are 72 children who have the gene. So, the sample
space consists of these 72 children.
Gene Gene not
Present present Total
High IQ 33 19 52
Normal IQ 39 11 50
Total 72 30 102

Of these, 33 have a high IQ.

33
P( B | A)  P(high IQ | gene present )   0.458
72

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 Independent and Dependent
Events
Independent events
• The occurrence of one of the events does not
affect the probability of the occurrence of the
other event
• P(B | A) = P(B) or P(A | B) = P(A)
• Events that are not independent are dependent

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 Example: Independent and
Dependent Events
Decide whether the events are independent or dependent.
1. Selecting a king from a standard deck (A), not replacing
it, and then selecting a queen from the deck (B).

Solution:
4
P( B | A)  P(2nd card is a Queen |1st card is a King ) 
51
4
P( B)  P(Queen) 
52
Dependent (the occurrence of A changes the probability
of the occurrence of B)
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 Example: Independent and
Dependent Events
Decide whether the events are independent or dependent.
2. Selecting a diamond from a standard deck of cards (A), putting it
back in the deck, and then selecting a spade from the deck (B).

Solution:

P (B A ) 
13 1
 a n d P (B ) 
13 1
 .

52 4 52 4

The occurrence of A does not affect the probability

of B, so the events are independent.

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 Example: Independent and
Dependent Events
Decide whether the events are independent or dependent.
3. Tossing a coin and getting a head (A), and then rolling
a six-sided die and obtaining a 6 (B).

Solution:
1
P( B | A)  P(rolling a 6 | head on coin) 
6
1
P( B)  P(rolling a 6) 
6

Independent (the occurrence of A does not change the

probability of the occurrence of B)
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 The Multiplication Rule
Multiplication rule for the probability of A and B
• The probability that two events A and B will occur
in sequence is
 P(A and B) = P(A) ∙ P(B | A)
• For independent events the rule can be simplified
to
 P(A and B) = P(A) ∙ P(B)
 Can be extended for any number of independent
events
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 Example: Using the Multiplication
Rule
Two cards are selected, without replacing the first card,
from a standard deck. Find the probability of selecting a
king and then selecting a queen.

Solution:
Because the first card is not replaced, the events are
dependent.
P( K and Q )  P ( K )  P (Q | K )
4 4
 
52 51
16
  0.006
2652
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 Example: Using the Multiplication
Rule
A coin is tossed and a die is rolled. Find the probability
of getting a head and then rolling a 6.

Solution:
The outcome of the coin does not affect the probability
of rolling a 6 on the die. These two events are
independent.
P( H and 6)  P ( H )  P (6)
1 1
 
2 6
1
  0.083
12
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 Example: Multiplication Rule
A die is rolled and two coins are tossed. Find the
probability of rolling a 5, and flipping two tails.

1
P (rolling a 5) = .
6
1
Whether or not the roll is a 5, P (Tail ) = ,
2
so the events are independent.

P (5 and T and T ) = P (5)· P (T )· P (T )

1 1 1
  
6 2 2
1
  0.042
24
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 Example: Using the Multiplication
Rule
The probability that a particular knee surgery is successful is 0.85.
Find the probability that three knee surgeries are successful.

Solution:
The probability that each knee surgery is successful is
0.85. The chance for success for one surgery is
independent of the chances for the other surgeries.
P(3 surgeries are successful) = (0.85)(0.85)(0.85)
≈ 0.614
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 Example: Using the Multiplication
Rule
Find the probability that none of the three knee
surgeries is successful.

Solution:
Because the probability of success for one surgery is
0.85. The probability of failure for one surgery is
1 – 0.85 = 0.15
P(none of the 3 surgeries is successful) = (0.15)(0.15)(0.15)
≈ 0.003

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 Example: Using the Multiplication
Rule
Find the probability that at least one of the three knee
surgeries is successful.

Solution:
“At least one” means one or more. The complement to
the event “at least one successful” is the event “none are
successful.” Using the complement rule
P(at least 1 is successful) = 1 – P(none are successful)
≈ 1 – 0.003
= 0.997
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 Section 3.2 Summary
• Found probability of an event given that
another event has occurred
• Distinguished between independent and
dependent events
• Used the Multiplication Rule to find the
probability of two events occurring in sequence
and to find conditional probabilities

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 Section 3.3
The Addition Rule

Objectives
•How to determine whether two events are
mutually exclusive
•How to use the Addition Rule to find the
probability of two events

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 Mutually Exclusive Events
Two events, A and B, are mutually exclusive if
they cannot occur at the same time.

A and B

A
B A B

A and B are mutually A and B are not mutually

exclusive. exclusive.

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 Example: Mutually Exclusive Events
Decide if the two events are mutually exclusive.

Event A: Roll a number less than 3 on a die.

Event B: Roll a 4 on a die.
A B
1
4
2

These events cannot happen at the same time, so the

events are mutually exclusive.
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 Example: Mutually Exclusive
Events
Decide if the two events are mutually exclusive.
Event A: Select a Jack from a deck of cards. Event
B: Select a heart from a deck of cards.
A 9 2
J B
3 10
J J A 7
K 4
J 5 8
6Q

Because the card can be a Jack and a heart at the same

time, the events are not mutually exclusive.
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 Example: Mutually Exclusive
Events
Decide if the events are mutually exclusive.
Event A: Randomly select a male student.
Event B: Randomly select a nursing major.

Solution:
Not mutually exclusive (The student can be a male
nursing major.)

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 The Addition Rule

Addition rule for the probability of A or B

• The probability that events A or B will occur is
 P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)
• For mutually exclusive events A and B, the rule can
be simplified to
 P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
 Can be extended to any number of mutually
exclusive events

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Example: Using the Addition Rule
You select a card from a standard deck. Find the
probability that the card is a 4 or an ace.
Solution:
The events are mutually exclusive (if the card is a 4, it
cannot be an ace)
Deck of 52 Cards
P(4 or ace)  P (4)  P (ace)
4♣
4 4 4♥
  4♠ A♣
52 52 4♦ A♠ A♥
8 A♦
  0.154
52 44 other cards
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Example: Using the Addition Rule
A card is randomly selected from a deck of cards. Find the
probability that the card is a Jack or the card is a heart.

The events are not mutually exclusive because the

Jack of hearts can occur in both events.
P (select a Jack or select a heart)
= P (Jack) + P (heart) – P (Jack of hearts)
4 13 1 16
   
52 52 52 52  0.308

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 Example: Using the Addition Rule
You roll a die. Find the probability of rolling a number
less than 3 or rolling an odd number.

Solution: Roll a Die

The events are not mutually exclusive 4 6
(1 is an outcome of both events) Odd Less
3 1 than
5 three
2
P(less than 3 or odd )
 P(less than 3)  P (odd )  P(less than 3 and odd )
2 3 1 4
     0.667
6 6 6 6
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 Example: The Addition Rule
You roll a die. Find the probability that you roll a
number less than 3 or a 4.

The events are mutually exclusive.

P (roll a number less than 3 or roll a 4)
= P (number is less than 3) + P (4)
2 1 3
    0.5
6 6 6
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 Example: Using the Addition Rule
A blood bank catalogs the types of blood given by donors
during the last five days. A donor is selected at random.
Find the probability the donor has type O or type A blood.

Type O Type A Type B Type AB Total

Rh-Positive 156 139 37 12 344
Rh-Negative 28 25 8 4 65
Total 184 164 45 16 409

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 Solution: Using the Addition Rule
The events are mutually exclusive (a donor cannot have
type O blood and type A blood)
Type O Type A Type B Type AB Total
Rh-Positive 156 139 37 12 344
Rh-Negative 28 25 8 4 65
Total 184 164 45 16 409

P (type O or type A)  P (type O )  P (type A)

184 164
 
409 409
348
  0.851
409
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 Example: Using the Addition Rule

Find the probability the donor has type B or is Rh-

negative.
Type O Type A Type B Type AB Total
Rh-Positive 156 139 37 12 344
Rh-Negative 28 25 8 4 65
Total 184 164 45 16 409

Solution:
The events are not mutually exclusive (a donor can have
type B blood and be Rh-negative)

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 Solution: Using the Addition Rule
Type O Type A Type B Type AB Total
Rh-Positive 156 139 37 12 344
Rh-Negative 28 25 8 4 65
Total 184 164 45 16 409

P (type B or Rh  neg )
 P(type B )  P ( Rh  neg )  P (type B and Rh  neg )
45 65 8 102
     0.249
409 409 409 409

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 Section 3.3 Summary

• Determined if two events are mutually exclusive

• Used the Addition Rule to find the probability of
two events

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 Section 3.4
Additional Topics in Probability
and Counting
Objectives
•How to find the number of ways a group of objects can
be arranged in order
•How to find the number of ways to choose several
objects from a group without regard to order
•How to use the counting principles to find probabilities

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 Permutations
Permutation
• An ordered arrangement of objects
• The number of different permutations of n
distinct objects is n! (n factorial)
 n! = n∙(n – 1)∙(n – 2)∙(n – 3)∙ ∙ ∙3∙2 ∙1
 0! = 1
 Examples:
• 6! = 6∙5∙4∙3∙2∙1 = 720
• 4! = 4∙3∙2∙1 = 24
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Example: Permutation of n Objects

How many different surveys are required to cover

all possible question arrangements if there are 7
questions in a survey?

7! = 7 · 6 · 5 · 4 · 3 · 2 · 1 = 5040 surveys

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Example: Permutation of n Objects

The objective of a 9 x 9 Sudoku number puzzle

is to fill the grid so that each row, each column,
and each 3 x 3 grid contain the digits 1 to 9.
How many different ways can the first row of a
blank 9 x 9 Sudoku grid be filled?

Solution:
The number of permutations is
9!= 9∙8∙7∙6∙5∙4∙3∙2∙1 = 362,880 ways

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 Permutation of n Objects Taken r
at a Time
• The number of different permutations of n distinct
objects taken r at a time
n! .
n Pr  where r ≤ n
(n  r)!
# in the
# taken from
group
the group
Example: You are required to read 5 books from a list
of 8. In how many different orders can you do so?

P r  8 P5  8!  8! 8  7  6  5  4  3  2  1  6720 wa ys
n
(8  5)! 3! = 3  2 1
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 Example: Finding nPr
Find the number of ways of forming four-digit codes in
which no digit is repeated.

Solution:
• You need to select 4 digits from a group of 10
• n = 10, r = 4
10! 10!
10 P4  
(10  4)! 6!
10  9  8  7  6  5  4  3  2  1

6  5  4  3  2 1
 5040 ways
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 Example: Finding nPr
Forty-three race cars started the 2007 Daytona 500. How many
ways can the cars finish first, second, and third?

Solution:
• You need to select 3 cars from a group of 43
• n = 43, r = 3
43! 43!
43 P3  
(43  3)! 40!
 43  42  41
 74, 046 ways

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 Distinguishable Permutations
Distinguishable Permutations
• The number of distinguishable permutations of n objects
where n1 are of one type, n2 are of another type, and so on

■ n!
n1 ! n2 ! n3 !   nk !

where n1 + n2 + n3 +∙∙∙+ nk = n

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 Example: Distinguishable
Permutations
A building contractor is planning to develop a subdivision that consists of
6 one-story houses, 4 two-story houses, and 2 split-level houses. In how
many distinguishable ways can the houses be arranged?

Solution:
• There are 12 houses in the subdivision
• n = 12, n1 = 6, n2 = 4, n3 = 2
12!
6! 4! 2!
 13, 860 distinguishable ways

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 Example: Distinguishable
Permutations
Jessie wants to plant 10 plants along the
sidewalk in her front yard. She has 3 rose
bushes, 4 daffodils, and 3 lilies. In how
many distinguishable ways can the plants be
arranged?
10! 10  9  8  7  6  5  4!

3!4!3! 3!4!3!
 4,200 differ en t wa ys t o a r r a n ge t h e pla n t s
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 Combination of n Objects Taken r at a
Time
A combination is a selection of r objects from a group of n things
when order does not matter. The number of combinations of
r objects selected from a group of n objects is
n!
nC r  .
# in the (n  r)! r !
collection # taken from the
collection
Example: You are required to read 5 books from a list
of 8. In how many different ways can you do so if the
order doesn’t matter?
C = 8! = 8  7  6  5!
8 5
3!5! 3!5!
= 56 combinations
Copyright © 2015, 2012, and 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. 74
 Example: Combinations

A state’s department of transportation plans to develop a

new section of interstate highway and receives 16 bids for
the project. The state plans to hire four of the bidding
companies. How many different combinations of four
companies can be selected from the 16 bidding companies?

Solution:
• You need to select 4 companies from a group of 16
• n = 16, r = 4,
• Order is not important

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 Solution: Combinations
16!
16 C4 
(16  4)!4!
16!

12!4!
16 15 14 13 12!

12! 4  3  2 1
 1820 different combinations

. Copyright © 2015, 2012, and 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. 76

 Example: Finding Probabilities

A student advisory board consists of 17 members. Three

members serve as the board’s chair, secretary, and
webmaster. Each member is equally likely to serve any
of the positions. What is the probability of selecting at
random the three members that hold each position?

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 Solution: Finding Probabilities
• There is only one favorable outcome
• There are
17!
17 P3 
(17  3)!
17!
 positions
ways the three  17canbe
16 15  4080
filled
14!

1
P( selecting the 3 members )   0.0002
4080

. Copyright © 2015, 2012, and 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. 78

 Example: Finding Probabilities
You have 11 letters consisting of one M, four Is,
four Ss, and two Ps. If the letters are randomly
arranged in order, what is the probability that the
arrangement spells the word Mississippi ?

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 Solution: Finding Probabilities

• There is only one favorable outcome

• There are
11!
 34, 650 11 letters with 1,4,4, and 2
1! 4! 4! 2! like letters
distinguishable permutations of the given letters

1
P( Mississippi )   0.000029
34650

. Copyright © 2015, 2012, and 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. 80

 Example: Finding Probabilities
In a state lottery, you must correctly select 6 numbers (in
any order) out of 44 to win the grand prize.

a.) How many ways can 6 numbers be chosen from the 44

numbers?
b.) If you purchase one lottery ticket, what is the
probability of winning the top prize?

44 !
a.) 44C 6   7,059,052 com bin a t ion s
6 !38 !
b.) There is only one winning ticket, therefore,
1
P (win )   0.00000014
7059052
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 Section 3.4 Summary

• Found the number of ways a group of objects

can be arranged in order
• Found the number of ways to choose several
objects from a group without regard to order
• Used the counting principles to find probabilities

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