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Project Management - CAT - 3

This document discusses forecasting and time series analysis. It defines forecasting as estimating future events based on analyzing past patterns of events over time. Forecasting provides management with information to aid in future planning, promote organizational goals, facilitate coordination and control, and help ensure organizational success. Weighted moving average is described as a forecasting method that assigns different weights to data points based on their importance to calculate a weighted average. An example is provided to demonstrate how to calculate a weighted moving average.

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Akash Kulshrestha
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26 views10 pages

Project Management - CAT - 3

This document discusses forecasting and time series analysis. It defines forecasting as estimating future events based on analyzing past patterns of events over time. Forecasting provides management with information to aid in future planning, promote organizational goals, facilitate coordination and control, and help ensure organizational success. Weighted moving average is described as a forecasting method that assigns different weights to data points based on their importance to calculate a weighted average. An example is provided to demonstrate how to calculate a weighted moving average.

Uploaded by

Akash Kulshrestha
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Project Management – CAT - 3

Forecasting and Time Series Analysis

Presented By : Akash
Kulshrestha Mohammad Umair
Rohit Kumar
What is Forecasting ?

• In getting ready plans for the future, the administration authority


needs to make a few forecasts about what is probably going to occur
in the future.

• Forecasting gives them this information. Forecasting is the way


toward assessing the significant occasions of future, in view of the
examination of their at various times conduct.

• The future can't be examined except if one knows how the occasions
have happened previously and how they are happening by and by.
The over a significant time span examination of occasions gives the
base accommodating to gathering data about their future event.
Role of Forecasting:

• Basis of Planning

• Promotion of Organization

• Facilitating Co-ordination and Control

• Success in Organisation
Weighted Moving Average Method
• A moving average is a strategy to get a general thought of the trends in
an informational index; it is an average of any subset of numbers.

• The moving average is amazingly valuable for forecasting long haul


trends.

• Weighted average is a computation that considers the changing


degrees of significance of the numbers in an informational collection.

• In calculating a weighted average, each number in the informational


index is duplicated by a foreordained load before the last figuring is
made.

• A weighted average can be more exact than a straightforward average


in which all numbers in an informational index are relegated an
indistinguishable weight.
Advantages of Weighted Moving Average
• The weighted average strategy limits the impact of abnormal
high and-low material costs.

• The weighted average strategy is viable and reasonable for


charging cost of material used to creation.

• It is helpful for the board in investigating of working outcomes.

• This strategy is easy to apply if receipts of material are not


various.
Disadvantages of Weighted Moving Average

• Materials utilized may not be charged to creation


at the current cost.

• The cost charged to creation are not the real


costs.

• On the off chance that the receipts are various,


numerous estimations are required.
Example
Data Point Data Point Value Assigned Weight

1 10 2
1 50 5
1 40 3
1 20 4
1 30 6
1 60 8
1 40 9
1 30 5
1 20 1
1 10 7
Solution
Data Point Data Point Value Assigned Weight Data Point Weighted Value

1 10 2 20
1 50 5 250
1 40 3 120
1 20 4 80
1 30 6 180
1 60 8 480
1 40 9 360
1 30 5 150
1 20 1 20
1 10 7 70
50 1730

Weighted Average = (10*2)+(50*5)+(40*3)+(20*4)+(30*6)+(60*8)+(40*9)+(30*5)+(20*1)+(10*7)


2+5+3+4+6+8+9+5+1+7
= 1730  34.6
50
Thank You

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