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The Challenge of The 21 Century: Creating A Paradigm Shift in

This document discusses the challenges of creating disaster resilience in the 21st century. It argues that increasing globalization, population growth, and climate change will lead to more complex disasters. However, through international partnerships, integrating science and policy, and focusing on monitoring, mitigation and adaptation, communities can build capacity and sustainability to better cope with disasters. The key is enabling a paradigm shift where professionals work across disciplines and scales to help local and regional governments anticipate risks and strengthen resilience.

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Shamim Ajmal
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38 views36 pages

The Challenge of The 21 Century: Creating A Paradigm Shift in

This document discusses the challenges of creating disaster resilience in the 21st century. It argues that increasing globalization, population growth, and climate change will lead to more complex disasters. However, through international partnerships, integrating science and policy, and focusing on monitoring, mitigation and adaptation, communities can build capacity and sustainability to better cope with disasters. The key is enabling a paradigm shift where professionals work across disciplines and scales to help local and regional governments anticipate risks and strengthen resilience.

Uploaded by

Shamim Ajmal
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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THE CHALLENGE OF THE

21ST CENTURY

CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT IN THE


GLOBAL WAR
VS
APATHY, IGNORANCE, DISCIPLINARY
BOUNDARIES, AND UNWISE DECISIONS
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for
Disaster Reduction, University of
North Carolina, USA
THE CHALLENGE OF THE
21ST CENTURY
• Protecting and
preserving the
PEOPLE and
COMMUNITIES
of the “Blue
(water) Planet.
A SNAPHOT OF OUR WORLD
• 6.6 billion people, and growing while…
• Living and competing in an
interconnected global economy,
• Producing $60 trillion of products each
year, and
• Facing many kinds of complex
disasters every year that are related to
the 3 S’s, 5E’s, and 1H.
THE 3 S’s

• SAFETY (from
recurring natural
hazards)
• SECURITY
• SUSTAINABILITY
THE FIVE E’s

• ECONOMY
• ENERGY
• ENVIRONMENT
• ECOLOGY
• EDUCATION
THE 1 H

• HEALTH CARE
A DISASTER is ---
--- the set of failures that occur when
three continuums: 1)  people, 2)
community (i.e., a set of habitats,
livelihoods, and social constructs), and
3) recurring events (e.g., floods,
earthquakes, ...,) intersect at a point in
space and time, when and where the
people and community are not ready.  
 
THE THREE CONTINUUMS OF
EVERY DISASTER

• PEOPLE
• COMMUNITY
• RECURRING EVENTS
(AKA Natural Hazards, which are
proof of a DYNAMIC EARTH)
FOUR UNIVERSAL WEAK-LINKS
CAUSE DISASTERS

• IGNORANCE
• APATHY
• DISCIPLINARY
BOUNDARIES
• UNWISE DECISIONS
LIKELY CAUSES OF COMPLEX
DISASTERS DURING THE 21ST
CENTURY

• Poverty
• Chronic hunger
• Health care needs
• Increasing risk of pandemic disease
• Large-scale migration of people
• Endangered plant and animal life
• Conflict and terrorism
LIKELY CAUSES OF COMPLEX
DISASTERS DURING THE 21ST
CENTURY

• Increasing morbidity, mortality,


homelessness, and economic losses from
recurring natural hazards
• Threats related to global climate change
• Environmental degradation and pollution of
air, water, and soil
• Endangerment and extinction of plant and
animal life
OUR POSSIBLE “OH NO!” LEGACY
OF THE 21ST CENTURY

Unless we design and implement a


realistic new strategy for disaster
prevention, OUR problems may grow
worse so rapidly that we reach many
“tipping points,” before we realize it
and share in an unnecessary and
irreversible reduction in the quality
of life on Planet Earth.
A SOLUTION SET: THE
FRAMEWORK OF SUSTAINABILITY

• To anticipate and plan for the full


spectrum of what can happen
• To build capacity at the community level
for monitoring, mitigation, and adaptation
• To build equity in all sectors of the
community
• To inform, educate, and train
WE KNOW WHAT TO DO AND HOW
TO DO IT, --- SO, LET’S DO IT!

• All of us working strategically can


implement a realistic set of scientific,
technical, and political solutions---
within OUR administrative, legal, and
economic constraints, --- and reach
the goal of community sustainability.
THE ART AND SCIENCE OF
CREATING A PARADIGM
SHIFT FOR COMMUNITY
SUSTAINABILITY
TOWARDS:
INTERNATIONAL PARTNERSHIPS
 INTEGRATION OF SCIENCE AND
PUBLIC POLICY
MITIGATION, MONITORING, AND
ADAPTATION
THINKING OUT OF OUR BOXES
WILL FACILITATE
ENLIGHTENMENT AND
ENABLEMENT
AND CAUSE A PARADIGM SHIFT
FOR PROFESSIONALS TO WORK
STRATEGICALLY ON LOCAL,
REGIONAL AND GLOBAL SCALES.
LOCAL AND REGIONAL
GOVERNMENTS
WILL HAVE THE CAPACITY TO
MONITOR, MITIGATE AND ADAPT
TO SOCIETAL PROBLEMS POSED
BY COMPLEX GLOBAL DISASTERS
ON LOCAL, REGIONAL, AND
GLOBAL SCALES
TOWARDS
TOWARDS COMMUNITY
COMMUNITY SUSTAINABILITY
SUSTAINABILITY
TURNING
TURNING POINTS:
POINTS: Partnerships
Partnerships for
for Monitoring,
Monitoring, Mitigation,
Mitigation, and
and
Adaptation
Adaptation (MMA)
(MMA) on
on local
local and
and regional
regional scales
scales

THE KNOWLEDGE BASE CAPACITY BUILDING CONTINUING EDUCATION

Real and Near- Real Time Seek out, Enlighten, and Enlighten Communities on
Monitoring/Communication Enable “Partnerships” Their Risks
Vulnerability and Risk Build Strategic Equity
Characterization Transfer Ownership of the
Through “MMA” Scenarios
Knowledge Base
Best Practices for Mitigation
and Adaptation Close Gaps in Knowledge Engage Partners in MMA
and Implementation Learning Experiences
Situation Data Bases
Transfer Ownership of
Multiply “Partnerships” by
Cause & Effect Relationships Emerging Technologies
Regioal/global Twinning
Anticipatory Actions for all Move Towards A Disaster Update Knowledge Bases
Events and Situations Intelligent Community After Each MMA Scenario
Interfaces with all Real- and
Near Real-Time Sources
Gateways to a Deeper
Understanding
THE
THE GLOBAL
GLOBAL AGENDA:
AGENDA: MONITORING,
MONITORING,
MITIGATION,
MITIGATION, AND
AND ADAPTATION
ADAPTATION (MMA)
(MMA)

EXPERIENCES WITH
PREPAREDNESS

EXPERIENCES WITH
MONITORING AND WARNING

EXPERIENCES WITH
PARTNERSHIPS
PARTNERSHIPS DISASTER SCENARIO
(2011
(2011 AND
ANDBEYOND)
BEYOND) PLANNING

EXPERIENCES WITH
RECOVERY AND
RECONSTRUCTION

EXPERIENCES WITH
PREVENTION, MITIGATION,
AND ADAPTATION
FACTORS THAT FACILITATE A
PARADIGM SHIFT

• PUBLIC AWARENESS OF EACH PROBLEM AND


THE BENEFIT/COSTS OF ITS SOLUTION SET.
• THE COMMON AGENDA FOR PARTNERSHIPS
THROUGHOUT THE WORLD
• INCENTIVES FOR POLITICAL LEADERS AND
SCIENTISTS TO DEVISE AND IMPLEMENT
PUBLIC POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES FOR
MONITORING, MITIGATION, AND ADAPTATION.
CHANGES BASED ON A LARGER
SOCIAL CONSTRUCT OF THE
ISSUES

POLICY CHANGE 1: FOCUS ON THE


NATURE AND APPROPRIATENESS OF
MOVING FROM THINKING TO ACTIONS
BY GLOBAL PARTNERS AND THE WAYS
TO ENLIST SUPPORT AND RESOURCES
FOR THE KINDS OF PARADIGM SHIFTS
(ACTIONS) THAT ARE NEEDED.
CHANGES BASED ON A LARGER
SOCIAL CONSTRUCT OF THE
ISSUES

POLICY CHANGE 2: FOSTER


CHANGE BY NTEGRATING THE BEST
POLICIES AND PRACTICES FOR
MONITORING, MITIGATION, AND
ADAPTATION BASED ON EXISTING
LEGAL MANDATES AND ASSETS.
CHANGES BASED ON A LARGER
SOCIAL CONSTRUCT OF THE
ISSUES

POLICY CHANGE 3: CREATE, ADJUST,


AND REALIGN PARTNERSHIPS UNTIL
YOU CAN ACHIEVE THE KIND OF
PARADIGM SHIFT NEEDED TO SOLVE
THE PROBLEMS FACED BY EACH
LOCAL COMMUN ITY IN EVERY REGION.
SIX THINKING HATS FOR A
PARADIGM SHIFT
SIX THINKING HATS FOR A
PARADIGM SHIFT
• WHITE HAT: WHAT ARE THE
FACTS?
• YELLOW HAT: WHAT ARE THE
LOGICAL POSITIVE OUTCOMES OF
EACH ACTION?
• BLACK HAT: WHAT ARE THE
LOGICAL NEGATIVE OUTCOMES
OF EACH ACTION?
SIX THINKING HATS FOR A
PARADIGM SHIFT

• RED HAT: HOW URGENT IS EACH


ACTION?
• GREEN HAT: IS THIS A “WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY” FOR US?
• BLUE HAT: WHAT ARE THE ELEMENTS
AND TIMELINES OF OUR STRATEGIC
AND TACTICAL PLANS FOR SEIZING
THIS OPPORTUNITY?
SIX ACTION SHOES FOR A
PARADIGM SHIFT
SIX ACTION SHOES F0R A
PARADIGM SHIFT
• BROWN BROGUE: FINDING THE RIGHT
PARTNERS/PERSON FOR EACH JOB!
• WHITE SNEAKERS: A COMMISSION TO
GATHER AND ANALYZE ALL THE FACTS!
• NAVY BLUE SHOES: CREATING
STRATEGIC AND TACTICAL PLANS THAT
GIVE ALL PARTNERS A COMMON
AGENDA!
SIX ACTION SHOES F0R A
PARADIGM SHIFT

• ORANGE RUBBER GUM SHOES: DOING


WHAT IS NEEDED WHEN IT COUNTS THE
MOST!
• TAN HOUSE SHOES: HAVING A SENSE OF
URGENCY.
• PURPLE RIDING BOOTS: LEADERSHIP!
RISK ASSESSMENT
ACCEPTABLE RISK
•HAZARD MAPS
•INVENTORY RISK
•VULNERABILITY UNACCEPTABLE RISK
•LOCATION

ANTICIPATORY
DECISIONS
DATA
DATA BASES
BASES YOUR
AND
AND INFORMATION
INFORMATION COMMUNITY

COMMUNITY
SUSTAINABILITY
HAZARDS:
BEST POLICIES AND
GROUND SHAKING PRACTICES FOR:
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
•MONITORING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION •MITIGATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS •ADAPTATION
INTERACTIONS THAT EXPOSE
FRAGILITIES
A Restless Earth Earthquakes
—The Cause of Tsunamis
Natural
Phenomena that Volcanic
interact with eruptions
PEOPLE and Landslides
COMMUNITIES
INTERACTIONS THAT EXPOSE
FRAGILITIES
Extreme Tropical
Storms---- Storms
Natural Hurricanes
Phenomena that Typhoons
interact with
Tornadoes
PEOPLE and
COMMUNITIES Nor’easters
INTERACTIONS THAT CAN
INCREASE FRAGILITIES
Actions of a Build
community---To Economic
Development
increase
Create Land
“Quality of Life”
Control Water
Expand Cities
Facilitate
Transportation
INTERACTIONS THAT CAN
INCREASE FRAGILITIES
Mankind’s Deforestation
Actions--- can Pollution
have expected
and unexpected  Conflict
consequences
INTERACTIONS THAT CAN
INCREASE FRAGILITIES
A Warming Increasing
World ---with Temperatures
Diminishing
its spectrum
Polar Ice
of natural and
Shrinking
unnatural Glaciers
causes Rising Sea Level

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